ChiGoose

Big yikes

Wow, must just be complete blind luck that she’s regularly the best pollster out there despite ending up being off by an inexcusably large margin of one point in 2020. How do past Iowa Poll results compare with presidential election results in Iowa?

This a pretty good (and quick) interview with Ann Selzer on her poll and methodology. Ann Selzer: How Could This Be? The big difference between her and most other pollsters is that she does not do recall vote to try to fit to a prior election’s turnout (I.e. assuming the electorate is going to be more like 2022 or 2020). She mainly just screens for likely voters and weights by demographics and geography from there. She mentioned that one of the biggest surprises was that women over 65 have moved from generally supporting Republicans to voting for Harris at a 2:1 clip.

Anecdotally, every Harris yard sign in my neighborhood (including mine) was stolen the other night while both Trump signs are still up, untouched.

Twitter’s ban almost doubled attention for Biden story Classic Streisand Effect

Slow, low energy old man. Sad! Also, somebody buy this cameraman a beer

1. It’s a really bad idea to try to make predictions from the early vote 2. Do you think all of those registered Republicans are actually voting for Trump? 3. How confident are you that these are new early voters and not cannibalization of the Election Day vote?

Weird how a letter that explicitly states that they do not know if the laptop was a Russian op gets interpreted by MAGA. I guess we can’t be surprised when they fall for hoax after hoax given their comprehension skills…

Gotta wonder if Trump’s mismanagement of COVID has turned older voters against him

I’m old enough to remember when Seltzer predicted that Clinton was a lot weaker than the consensus showed she was in 2016…

Well yeah, Seltzer is the best in the business. She nailed the Trump momentum in 2016 when everyone else thought Clinton had it in the bag and she also showed Biden was weaker in 2020 than many people thought. It’s not just some random pollster, it’s the gold standard pollster. That’s why it drives the narrative.

Right, this is an argument in Seltzer’s favor. She’s never been known to herd and routinely goes out on a limb (and is often proven correct).

Agreed. It’s absolutely shocking. I was expecting something around Trump +8. I found the article with a deep dive interesting: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how If she’s found something, it appears it’s Harris with a devastating 20-point lead with women combined with a surprisingly strong performance with voters aged 55+ at 2-points over Trump. It’s a big if, but if she’s right, and those numbers play out nationally, we’re looking at Harris being closer to 400 EVs than 300. It would be stunning

I’m having a hard time believing this. She’s usually the best but if she’s right, this race is already over. We’ve been seeing evidence of herding lately but Seltzer doesn’t herd so this is interesting.

Yeah, makes sense now why he’s been hitting up large cities like going to MSG.

Woof.

For one, we know it wasn’t staged.

This time, when we cheat, we should probably consider some of the down ballot races. It was really embarrassing that we put up this giant, intricate network involving hundreds to thousands of people and nobody thought we should cheat at the Senate and House races last time. We should make sure that's on the agenda for the next Zoom call.

I really wouldn't trust EV data to tell us anything. Could be that the GOP is doing really well, bringing in new voters who are voting early. Could be that the GOP is cannibalizing their election day vote. Their change in message around mail-in and early vote might mean the same overall number will vote but some are voting early instead of on election day (meaning they'll have less turnout on ED than expected) Could be that a lot of the registered GOP voters are Haley voters casting ballots for Harris. In the data, they'd show as Republican voters, but would be adding to Harris' total Otherwise, I think I mostly agree with you. It seems like it's gonna come down to PA turnout and it's way too close call. There's a lot of people who seem to have a high level of confidence that it's going to swing their way, but they're just telling on themselves.

I've never said he was. Just found the cognitive dissonance of "He's not a fascist. He should use the military to round up everybody in DC. He's not a fascist" by a supporter to be funny.

Four events in NC, three in PA, and one each in VA, GA, and MI to close out. Wondering why so much time in NC?