Shaw66

There was a thread going today that got closed, because the OP was just McDermott-bashing. But there was an interesting discussion starting about Codrington's role, his importance, and his backup. My view of punt returners is that all I care about is that the guy does not, under any circumstances, turn over the football. I don't want him to lose yardage, but if he doesn't gain any, that's okay by me. Brandon Codrington, of course, has been good at ball security - fumbled twice, lost one, I think. Not as good as I'd like, but he looks pretty secure back there. And he brings the added bonus of being an above-average, at least, return man. We've grown accustomed to seeing him pop for 10 to 25 yards, sometimes when it looks like there's nothing there. He's been a very nice contributor. What happens if he goes down? Well, Hyde is on the PS, and he is great at ball security, and he actually contributes some nice returns, too, just not like Codrington. And there's Shakir, who I believe has good experience in college and a solid head on his shoulders, and he also can contribute yardage, I'd guess more or less like Codrington. There may be others on the roster who can do it, too. I don't want anything to happen to Codrington (and I'm assuming he can go against the Broncos), but my sense is the Bills have the position covered.

Well, okay, I get it, but THE most reliable punt returner the Bills have had in the last ten years is on the practice squad, so the Bills won't be left high and dry if Codrington can't go. Micah Hyde. And, Shakir has a lot of punt returning experience. There are more important things to worry about.

Look at the defense. It covers and and runs to the ball the same as the starting defense. Not as well, of course, but same style and efficiency. That's true depth; any of those guys can move in to replace a starter, and the overall defense still functions well.

He's a guy with some brains and physical skills like Allen, but a lower level. A little smaller, a little less of a thrower, a little less of a runner. But still, compared to most QBs, he's more like Allen than most NFL QBs. I think that makes him the ideal backup for the Bills. And he looked it on that drive. He looked like someone who can the offense the way the Allen runs it, without the Hall of Fame production of Allen.

This. There are a couple of plays in here where his punch absolutely explodes. He's knocking guys off balance all the time. Hand play is the key to line good line play, and his hands and arms are great weapons.

Thanks. That's some of the best analysis I've seen here. Good stuff. As to your first two paragraphs, I think you describe exactly what McDermott is trying to do. He thinks that if he's loaded his team with guys who are superior talents (not stars, but superior), who are smart and who are willing to play a team game, he'll have a team that keeps getting better and better. McDermott believes that the team that executes better, over and over, will beat the team with some stars who execute well. Still, I hear you about Allen and of course you're right. Allen makes it all work. But we've always known that about football. Mahomes makes it all work. Brady makes it all work. I think McDermott would say that he can keep it working even when he loses players, other than Allen. McDermott has shown that he CAN keep it all working, even though he lost what seemed to be a lot of core players. He HAD an answer for the interior offensive line, he HAD an answer for the receiver room, he HAD an answer an answer at safety. Is the answer always better? Well, maybe not better than what was replaced, but the object isn't to replace those players with other players like them; the object is to replace them with players who keep the system running. Frankly, my view of this team is that it's already out-performed in the win-loss column and had a successful season if it gets one playoff win. I know, that's not the goal and all of that, but to have done a substantial retooling and end up with a BETTER team, that's darn good. This may not be a team that can win a Super Bowl, but it's pretty impressive even if it doesn't. I think that 2025 is when McDermott's system will prove itself with a REALLY big year.

You know, the Morse replacement thing is a good example of how little we know. It's obvious now that the Bills had a high degree of confidence that McGovern beside Torrence would be a fierce combo, and that Edwards could do the job. Some or a lot of the credit has to go to Aaron Kromer. But the point is, we don't really understand what these guys can do and can't do; McDermott and his staff are good at that evaluation. How we all felt about Bernard going into 2023 is another example. Receiver by committee is another.

Interesting discussion. I don't think the offensive production happened because of a superstar performance by Allen. I think we're now seeing the Allen that has been developing over the past several years, the Allen who's taken the desperation bomb out of his arsenal and replaced it with the high percentage completion. The example I've given before is that I'd rather have Allen thrown a ten yard pass with an 80% completion likelihood than a 40 yarder that has a 50% completion likelihood. In the current NFL, positive plays are more important than explosive plays. And I think you're ignoring or undervaluing what Brady has meant to all of this. I think it's amazing how often Allen, more or less in rhythm, delivers a pass to a guy who's wide open. This offensive has an answer for every defense, the players (particularly Allen) recognize the defense and run their routes, and Allen knows where the open guy is going to be. All of that allows Allen to throw balanced, with a quality arm motion, and deliver an easily catchable ball. They made the game easier for Allen. We see it when he's standing at the LOS, looking around, changing blocking assignments or plays. Then, when the play starts we see it because he rarely is surprised - everything is as he thought it was, and then his receivers come open exactly where they're supposed to come open. But they didn't make it easier by dumbing down the offense. The offense is as complicated as ever, but it's easier for Allen to run it. I think we're seeing, for the first time his career, executing the game plan and the plays as called. He's doing it because it all works, and it works because of what Brady has done. Brady's given him an offense where guys get open consistently and that Allen can execute consistently. Then, as you say, on top of that, Allen makes his share plays that are unique to him. I mean, Mahomes makes his plays, too, and some other guys from time to time, but I don't think anyone makes so many of those plays. Lamar may make a run or two that Allen can't, but Allen makes ten throws that Lamar can't. Mahomes has some effective runs, but not Allen runs. Not many guys make that throw to Coleman - not the one this week, which was great in its own right, but the one last week, when Allen waved Coleman downfield so Josh could throw it 60+ yards. Bottom line, you seem to think that we're seeing an accident that isn't likely to be repeated. I don't think it's that at all. McDermott doesn't run the team to win by accident. What we're seeing has been created by design. Not to make this a LAMP, but last summer I kept saying that the receiver room was put together by design. It was receiver by committee for sure; all that was necessary was to pick the committee. The Bills had all the guys they have now (minus Cooper), and they also had MSV and Claypool. And Shorter and Shaver. And probably one or two I'm forgetting. It was very clear that the Bills were going away from the number one stud receiver, that they were taking a different approach to passing offense, an approach that was more like what the Rams, 49ers, and Lions all had been doing - attacking all over the field, creating stress points in the defense and sending a receiver to those points for easy completions. I could see that it was being done by design, and we now can see that they knew what they were doing. It's not an accident, and it's not because Allen had some superstar season. I don't think Kincaid's usage is about holding him back. I think it's about what the opponent's defense looks like, where they can be attacked, and with what routes. Like everyone else, Kincaid eats when his are the routes that take advantage of what the defense is doing. It's all about every guy making plays when it's his turn.

I agree. Knock Mahomes on his butt once or twice on the way to a win in the AFC championship game - that's why Beane signed him. The plan was knock Mahomes on his butt year after year, but the knee injury took him out for the first two seasons of what was essentially a three-year deal. Third time's the charm, and all that.

Hap - This is a really interest post you put up in August about the offense and the passing attack. You were absolutely right about low-risk, low reward. Someone posted that the touchdown to Cooper was Allen's longest TD pass this season. The Bills are, in fact, putting together a lot of 10 play drives. But they've shown very well that they're built for blowouts. Everything you said in August was correct, except this. Few of us, if any, foresaw the devastating effect that offense can have when you have creative schemes, play designs, game plans, and a Josh Allen to execute them. We got a powerful, high scoring offense that doesn't drop bombs all over the field, and still scores - a lot. The OP in the Brady thread told us that the Bills are second all-time in points per drive. They're doing that without a 1000-yard receiver and without a 1000-yard rusher. It hardly seems possible, but that's what they're doing. I was one who said one or two receivers would go over 1000 yards, it just was tough to say who it would be. Kudos to Hondo and to Alphadawg. They both had a lot to say that was pretty much on point, although pretty much everyone overpredicted. I remember thinking in August that the negative nellies were wrong in saying that no one would go over 1000. Well, they were right, but in terms of big picture, they were completely wrong. For some interesting reasons, no one over 1000 has been a blessing, not a curse. Amazing year.

After his sack he was breathing heavily for several minutes on the bench. Not a good sign.

Yeah, Sunday there were a couple of plays where he attacked the run at the line of scrimmage, and I thought, "that's different." He isn't afraid to hit, and he seems to have good speed, so let's hope he's learning his way into the role. For me, simply the eye-test tells me he's a better talent (size and athleticism) than Hamlin. To his credit, Hamlin learned the position and plays it about as well as his talent will allow.

I've been thinking about this. What good is an elite cornerback when the Bills offense doesn't have a 1,000-yard receiver? Are they going to play man-to-man all the time so their elite cornerback can shut down Khalil Shakir? And while they're playing man-to-man, are they going to let Josh Allen run all over their defensive backfield? Or are they going to play zone? If they play zone, what good is an elite cornerback?

Nope. I would have loved being there, but not as much as Thrivefourfive.

I hear you, and I see what you see, but there are a couple of things about that. First, I think he's working his way back. I don't think he's fully recovered. But whether he's fully recovered or not, there's a more important point from McDermott's perspective. Every player's job is to execute his assignment to the best of his ability every time. The assignment is determined by the player's abilities. Your job is to get to your spot to the best of your ability. If your abilities are limited, then your spot is a little different, and the rest of the defense adjusts because your spot is different. What's important is that you get to your different spot every time, and your teammates will cover for you. Williams clearly can get to more spots than Milano, based on my observations. However, Milano gets to his spot every time, because he makes his reads and he knows his assignments. It's more important to McDermott that Milano does it every time than that Williams will do it better sometimes. That's why Klein was the choice last year. He was physically limited, but he executed to the best of his ability. So, if you're correct and Milano has lost a step, he'll be replaced next season. But he can't be replaced this season, because there is no one who can execute the assignments as well as he can. That's why Williams goes to the bench as soon as Milano is physically able to play. And that's why Elam sees such limited playing time, despite the talent we seen when he's on the field. You can disagree with that approach if you want, but it's how McDermott sees it, and he's the coach.

My recollection is that coming out of college Bishop had excellent physical skills and most importantly, he played his position flawlessly in college. He was smart and led the team. I think the Bills liked him for his smarts, just like they liked Bernard for his smarts. However, I suspect that safety is one of the toughest positions to learn in McD's defense, because the responsibilities are so broad. Cover like a corner, tackle like a linebacker, blitz, disguise what you're doing presnap. As some have said, missing a lot of camp hurt him, because that's the best opportunity to try to get up that learning curve. I think he's a good candidate to make a significant leap in year two. He has the measureables, and next year in camp he will be able fine tune the things he's learning about the position late in this season.

It isn't loyalty, at least not in the usual sense. McDermott has a bias in favor of players who know and execute their assignments repeatedly, over players who may have better physical skills but who miss assignments. Milano executes, and I'm guessing that Williams doesn't. I like a lot of what I've seen of Williams, especially his closing speed and his tackling, but I'm guessing that he misses his assignments in the passing game too often to make McDermott play him over Milano. I would guess that Williams doesn't take the right drops, doesn't react quickly enough, etc. Milano, when he's healthy, is never out of position.

I agree completely with this. I think the reason is talent. The team concept is great so long as the talent differential doesn't get too large. So, when you're playing Hyde, Poyer, and White in their primes, you don't have the best player at his position (compared to the best players in the league), but you're very good. Benford in my mind already may be playing at a White level, but Rapp and Hamlin/Bishop are a couple notches below Poyer and Hyde. Other than Rousseau and maybe Oliver, the Bills aren't getting any high-level play out of their d-linemen. That's why I think next season will be special. I like Carter, and I think we'll see more of him. I think Bishop will make a step up, and the experience he's getting now will help a lot. Milano will return to form or be replaced. They'll probably get some help in the draft or free agency. When the Bills upgrade their talent next season, the team concept will make the defense special again.

For some people, when the Bills win, it's the players, and when they lose, it's the coaches. For some others, when the Bills win, well, they're supposed to, and when the Bills lose, it's because Beane didn't get the right players. I'd love to talk to McDermott about his philosophy. I think it's similar to but not as well developed as Belichick's. I think McDermott believes deeply that 11 athletes playing as a fully integrated team will beat 11 athletes, some of whom are more talented than his, who are less well integrated. I think we've seen it McDermott's defense for several years now. The Bills don't have a starter on defense, and haven't had a starter on defense for several years, who is the best player in the league at his position. Not Hyde, not Poyer, not White, not Rousseau, not Milano. But McDermott gets his players to integrate and as a team to blanket the field to prevent explosive plays and to make big stops at the goal line and on fourth and one or two. This season, he's got an offense like that. They don't have a dominant receiver, and they don't have a dominant running back. They have an excellent offensive line, but the talking heads talk about the Chiefs' interior linemen, not the Bills'. They rave about other offensive tackles, but not the Bills'. But the Bills have a fully integrated offense that adjusts over and over again to take advantage of gaps in the defense, wherever they are. What McDermott has done is pretty amazing. Next season, there will be a talent upgrade. The defense will improve, and the offense will, too. Pretty amazing, except McDermott cost the Bills the number one seed, so I guess he needs to go. 😄

Of course, McDermott gets no credit for the Bills win over the Chiefs.

Better than the Bengals? Is Denver's defense the reason?

Denver has the weakest QB and the weakest receivers. Easiest ride for the Bills' defense. All I really want is for Denver or Miami to keep the Bengals out.

I agree, but I give pretty much every rookie a first season pass. I think Bishop's playing better, but not what I expected. I was interested to see him in the second half today turning around and asking Rapp presnap what to do. I mean, it's a good thing he's asking, but at this point in the season I would have expected him to be beyond those questions. If he isn't starting next season, I'll be disappointed.

Von Miller continues to ramp up his game with another sack. And his face on the sideline was all business. Don't count him out.

It's old, but it never gets old.