harmonkillebrew

I don't have faith in DW based on his "hits" last year. Lo and Zach were signed as backups and pleasantly surprised. If DW believed in Zach he wouldn't have blown 3 picks on Ragland. Same with Shaq to some degree (even when healthy and as the year went on Shaq couldn't keep Lo off the field). Who else has Whaley "unearthed" in FA? I don't like the Poyer signing b/c he got starter money despite not showing he's worth it. Sounds like Whaley trying to outsmart everyone. I was hoping for a dynamic S from a deep pool in the draft, but with Poyer's K it seems unlikely.

interesting. good to know. love these boards for tidbits like this.

Trubisky is a guy you move back into the 1st for, if he somehow slides. This guy will be an NFL starter for a long time. Great kid, level-headed leader, hard worker, insanely accurate, good arm strength, and great mobility. He's got all the tools and intangible, he just needs a little more experience. I'm not saying he's the second coming of Joe Montana, but his floor is Chad Pennington. Right situation and coaching and he could end up alot like Aaron Rodgers. Similar traits (maybe not quite the same gun)

I don't know if McD is releasing guy b/c of his scheme, more like they are old/ineffective and we have salary cap issues. Robey-Coleman was a bit of a question mark, but I think his cap # and maybe scheme had the most to do with it. With Rex, it was so obvious he was going to bring in his guys, and most enfuriating, we spent the entire draft (5 picks) to add his kind of players, when it was obvious he was on the hot seat. Now we're stuck with some ill fits - Ragland, Shaq - and less draft picks b/c we went all in on Rex. Hopefully those guys can play multiple schemes but it just wasn't very smart. Biggest issue with draft over FA, as you said, is those FAs stick around for like 1 or two years. Draft picks can be here for 4-5, and then you get benefits for re-signing your own.

Has he or Mike Williams even run yet? I'm not going all-in on a guy until I see his 40. Lots of mediocre NFL WRs that looked like stars against college talent (and slow speeds)

You think we still add a S? Probably need 2 CBs or more

Causation v. correlation is tricky. So if you're going to demand causation you should be ready to show it for your counter argument. Easy to poke holes. Give me some regression analysis! We'll see about Oak and Atl, in terms of staying power. But when most people talk about their success it really centers on good drafting (Mack, Cooper, Carr) and coaching (Quinn), not their success in FA. I think one of the biggest pitfalls of FA is that guys you sign are either big money for 2-4 years, or small money for 1 or 2. There's no continuity. Drafted guys are bargains (esp with the new rookie salary structure) and around for 4-6 years. Actually, now that I say it, I think the relatively new rookie salary structure is probably one reason smart teams have prioritized the draft over the past 5 years, since it went into effect. we're in agreement then. Here's to trading down!

So, given the particular strengths of our management team, FA is a better strategy than draft? ok. But I think a few of us are implying that this is itself the problem and that what we really need is a new management team. We'll see how it goes this year. I'm critical of Whaley, but hopefully with a better HC he'll make wiser decisions.

That doesn't show causation either. Oakland has started to turn it around recently due to some shrewd drafting. Atlanta has also drafted well recently, comp picks or not. The main thrust of the argument is that you build a consistent, winning team through the draft. Prioritize draft picks over FAs. So if signing FAs costs you more high-level comp picks, than maybe you should rethink your strategy. There is some argument that winning teams tend to prop up the value of their future FAs, but at the same time alot of those teams have drafted and groomed replacements with more long-term planning than the Bills have ever shown under Whaley. They don't hit on all their picks, but they have enough to build that kind of roster depth and let the cream rise to the top.

I didn't really see a tail off. Couple monster games early on that skewed expectations maybe, and a couple of bad plays against Ajayi and others. But still finished second in the league in tackles.

Best teams identify and plan for those holes in advance, not rely on draft and FA for starters. Depending on how you see our FA adds, we really only have starter holes at CB and WR. But if you aren't satisfied with Poyer, Lorax/Preston, Philly Brown, Mills, Seymour, then the holes start to replicate. And really if our roster was in decent shape, we'd be drafting for future holes at C, G, RB, DT, and TE

This sounds familiar.... although last year I guess it was more "a second chance for previously promising young WRs"

What's all the quitter talk about? Did Zach do some quitting I was unaware of?

Right now based on need, and probably value, WR. CB is also up there. Darkhorse could be TE Howard or a QB

So is Poyer our starting FS with Hyde as SS? I'm not super thrilled by the back-end speed or the physical presence, but I guess it will do. Probably looking for a starting CB still or maybe a roving hybrid guy for heavy nickel looks, with Hyde on the slot....

Agree with this. I think there are a few ILBs that haven't signed yet - Hightower, Mincer - market is still being set. Sure Z will get his $ shortly.

Seriously. Any thoughts on next, potential impact signings? Seems a solid CB or WR would help fill some gaps. Morris Claiborne? Kamar Aiken? Personally, I'd love to see us bring back Z Brown. Not convinced the Lo, Rag, Preston combo has enough speed or coverage ability. Z Brown would be a much better nickel and WLB. Also, not convinced Poyer is our starting FS/SS. Would like an enforcer like TJ McDonald.

So we had 22 FAs this year, right? I'm assuming not all of those factor into our comp pick calculation.... If you sign a guy for 1 year and then he bolts in FA does that count? Losing guys you drafted like Gilmore and Woods is obvious, and not counting re-signing your own guys, how does the rest factor out? But yeah, if signing Poyer, DiMarco and Philly Brown cancels out Gilmore, Woods, and Goodwin, and we get no, or only 7th round picks, that would not be so wise

If Ragland becomes an all-Pro I'll eat crow. I actually generally liked him in the draft, but there is an opportunity cost that comes with trading two 4th rounders to move up 8 spots, particularly when you have a similar guy (P. Brown) already on the team, and other blue chip prospects like J. Reed were still available and we had other needs.

The writing was on the wall for Rex last offseason, and I thought Whaley made a stupid decision to move up for Ragland, which cost us two extra picks (no 4th this year). Those picks could have been great depth or even a starter at a number of positions of need this year.

It's a fair point and highlights Whaley's over-reliance on free agents, potentially to the detriment of a more sustainable draft-based strategy. I"m not sure of the formula, and I think you get a ceiling of 2 comp picks, so we might balance out in the end given all the guys we lost. But yeah, if re-signing Mills and Lo cost us picks than that was stupid, shortsightedness

Without Watkins we don't have a WR corp. There's what, 2 other guys under contract? Whaley is constantly just trying to tread water. Every FA and draft we're trying to fill huge gaps where we should already have succession plans in place. WR was a need last year and he did nothing. It's now a bigger need. Aiken would be a good depth sign. But we'll need to go high (1st or 2nd) to add another playmaker to help Tyrod

Thanks. BBMB refugee. Nice write up on McD's D http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2017/1/12/14236950/sean-mcdermott-buffalo-bills-head-coach-4-3-defense-all-22 this first image, shows Lo's most likely lineup, where it says Ragland/Preston on the left. You then get Ragland and Preston in the middle. https://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/9kmYMtbT42OqKaYjjayVgVMgN70=/800x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/7795117/McDermott_4_3_under.jpg But on the 4-3 over look, he doesn't look like a great fit as he's more off the line, playing zone, maybe blitzing up the middle. Really depends how much McD plans to blitz. Key question is, who are the 2 LBs in the nickel? Hard to see Lo staying on the field, unless its to sub for Hughes. Ragland and Preston don't give me tons of confidence as our nickel LBs.

Haha. Its so laughable that CB, the OBD stooge, is trying to vouch for Whaley. Lo and ZB were signed as depth/backup guys. Whaley had no idea they would star, otherwise he wouldn't have wasted 2 picks to move up for Ragland. Hunter??? he was a mid-season sign and isn't on teh team anymore. As you say, the drafting and talent retention has been horrible. Whaley's only saving grace is that he probalby wasn't behind the Rex hire. He seemed to be the lone voice of dissent when that decision was made, which is why I suspect he saved his arse

This is shaping up to be one slow-ass defense. $4.5M/year is starter money. Lo plays the SLB, Preston in middle, and Ragland at Will? Doesn't make alot of sense. Maybe we'll add a speedy WLB, but then who rides the pine? probably Preston. I still don't know what D McD is trying to build.