transplantbillsfan

Guess we view athleticism differently. Also shows what happens to messaging based on the perspective of the listener, cause I heard very little in there about "arm talent" (I assume you mean strength) and more about work ethic, smarts, processing speed, misunderstood accuracy, etc. But, to each his own. I am. Are you?

Awesome article. I read it right away so I wouldn't lose the opportunity to. Beane sounds legitimately like he was super excited about this draft, even though I think it's clear he had Darnold ranked ahead of Allen, but I think Allen was his #2 and wasn't all that far behind. Just a guess, though. One quote I thought was really interesting: “I think what's come with social media and all the draft coverage is that all the stats get plastered out there,” he said. “I said it on the radio show the other day ... one of the guys said something about Josh Allen being raw. I went into a thing like, raw came from a national pundit. They labeled these guys as different things. Some of them I agreed with, some of them I did not.” I don't think Beane really views Allen as all that raw and it seems to indicate there's a strong possibility he starts pretty quickly, if not immediately.

Did you listen to all those interviews I posted? Did you listen to any of them? Doesn't seem like you did if Palmer is "just excited about Allen's athleticism" considering he talks very very little about Allen's athleticism. Here's another WGR interview by Palmer just before the draft. http://www.wgr550.com/media/audio-channel/04-25-quarterback-consultant-jordan-palmer-howard-and-jeremy Another interesting thing, to me, is the post draft interview circuit for Palmer. He's had some regarding Allen, but none, as far as I can find, about Darnold. I absolutely did... though not the defending him with my life thing. But yes, I loathed the idea of drafting him. I also said before the draft that if we drafted him, I just hoped I could delude myself into getting excited about my new QB relatively quickly... and I guess I did

Ethos: Character and credibility, often inclusive of expertise and knowledge. (Thanks Aristotle ) If Jordan Palmer has it... then Allen >>>>> Darnold. All in all, I have listened to Palmer talk about Allen and Watson and Darnold a good bit... he really seems genuinely excited about Allen in interviews I've watched and listened to, slightly less about Darnold. On the DP show a couple weeks ago, unprompted Palmer brought Allen's name up when Darnold to the Browns was referenced. You could call it salesmanship, but listen to the interview... he's genuinely excited... even saying that Darnold would be the clear #1 in any other draft, but not this one. Sounds like he almost gets coerced into coming back to talk about Darnold. On Darnold's pro day, Palmer, at one point, says Darnold has probably about 20% less of the arm strength of his brother but about 20% more mobility. At another point in the interview he brings up how mobility is going to be necessary for Franchise QBs moving forward, but at the moments he talks about this in the interview, he's not bringing Darnold's name up. He also makes a point to bring up Allen's upcoming pro day in this interview. As for Palmer's feelings solely about Darnold... In other interviews like on the Rich Eisen show, for example, he just sounds so stoked about Allen. http://www.wgr550.com/media/audio-channel/04-27-jordan-palmer-one-bills-live Sorry if this was posted... I searched "Jordan Palmer wgr" and didn't find this Interview from Palmer right after Allen was drafted -Allen is so small town that his teammates are going to quickly become his family -Allen's completion %, after watching the tape, should have been at least 4-6% higher... that he even reached 56% with all the factors working against him (protection, offensive weapons, guys open, dropped balls, etc) is amazing... Allen's significantly more accurate than his numbers imply. -Incredible work ethic derived from being a farm boy... this is actually a really interesting part of the interview -Raved as a unique QB, but Palmer used a combo of his brother, Big Ben and Deshaun Watson in comparison to the mould he might fit -Incredible smarts. Palmer said his smarts/study habits were greater than Deshaun Watson, who he worked with last year. And he absolutely lauded Watson's smarts. -Allen has only scratched the surface. 2 years of real college Football after being injured and out for a year after a JuCo after playing HS Football at a tiny little High School. and a fun little tidbit... - The funniest QB Palmer's been around... and he specifically brought up Fitzpatrick. And on a sidenote... can we PLEASE friggin hire Palmer as our QB coach for continuity's sake?!

So regarding more "highlights." Here are just a few of his senior bowl highlights, which I think are significant because of the caliber of players he's both playing with and against: I think once you get past the first couple plays where he scrambles and get to the 30 second mark of the video, his passes really jump out and demonstrate he's more than just a strong armed big kid... At that 30 second mark, Allen shows great pocket presence along with strength as he steps up in the pocket after shedding a tackler and despite that tackler getting a good hand on him and a relatively open field in front of him to gain a few yards, Allen calmly throws the ball to a WR running across the middle of the field 15-20 yards away while almost simultaneously shedding the tackler. On his 1st TD pass. He demonstrates great touch and pinpoint accuracy on a pass that travels probably 30 yards in the air... no hesitation on his part throwing to a player who's pretty well covered, either. His 2nd TD pass showed great touch, too, though the guy was more open. In fact, it was his touch on many of his passes in the Senior bowl that impressed me. In the highlights of the OP of all the TDs, a lot of those passes were "WOW" throws, many in terms of arm strength (and accuracy), but one of the things we've been hearing so much in terms of criticism is his ability to adjust ball speed. But the last TD throw in the highlights showed great touch and at the Senior Bowl I think you saw it even more. Getting excited about what the kid could be

Thanks Hap... I need to decompress from that terrible music before I give any thoughts on the throws themselves.

These types of analytics were my reason for loathing the idea of drafting Allen before we drafted him. This very "he's destined to fail because look at all these other failures who had similar collegiate careers" is the very reason I chucked my phone across the room the moment I heard his name. But I legitimately think his story, the path he traveled to get to that college career and ultimately get drafted, becomes the reason I've gotten largely behind this pick. His story tells me he's just really, really different... maybe there will be different results with him...?

If he's somehow way ahead of schedule, why would he need time? I think so, too.

Yeah, my biggest takeaway was the Rosen thing, too. I mean, I seriously wanted Goodell to call his name when we traded up... like so much so that I threw my phone across the room... it's a flip phone, so it's fine. But then when I heard several radio and TV interviews immediately after on draft night, I couldn't believe what a jackass he was. And those interviews were when my paradigm shift began, and it's continued as I've really really looked at Allen both on the field and off. It's possible I'd make excuses for Rosen if we drafted him and he said the same things, but I don't think so. I've seen people comparing Rosen to Mayfield in terms of what was said as a means to excuse Rosen, portraying it as some double edged sword, but I think it'd be different with Mayfield because he wouldn't get all weirdly snobby and political with his comments. I dunno... but evidently his personality is actually a pretty big problem.

I know that... just putting 2 & 2 together. Someone maliciously released tweets that had been long deleted the night before the draft. No greater time to do it to make a prospect drop in the draft... think Laremy Tunsil a couple years ago. NFL teams that want a QB have the most motive to do it. Arizona was reportedly "heartbroken" missing out on Allen. Sorry, just seems a strong adjective to me. When someone is heartbroken, the connotation of that word also implies confident expectations that were not met. No, the article doesn't say Arizona did it, anyone clicking the link can see that. It's just evidence in my mind.

Nope.

Arizona managed to get their hands on screenshots of the tweets and released them in an effort to get him to fall, as reports are they wanted Allen, not Rosen https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/heat-index/2018/05/02/arizona-cardinals-nfl-draft-quarterback-josh-allen-josh-rosen-z/574999002/ ... and it may have worked because Allen may have gone earlier than 7 if not for those tweets... but who knows. Anyway, I'm glad now we didn't wind up with the whiny brat Rosen and Arizona did... that kid would NOT fit in in Buffalo.

We can all only hope this will be the case

I think the "story" is what most intrigues me. Any team knows the kid has size and smarts, both of which are exceptional. But the fact is "project QBs" to the degree Allen is drafted high like him simply don't become Franchise QBs. However, his story is what's starting to make me think he's the exception to the rule. The kid himself is driven and is going to have a chip on his shoulder for the rest of his life, most likely. And I think this video is worth a watch. It's an interview from before last season... kinda long: Some interesting notes, particularly about why he may be so raw and playing at Wyoming: - 3 sport athlete in HS - Could throw a 92 mph fastball in baseball as a Senior. -was just 5'10" and 150 lbs as a sophomore -was 6'0" and 180 lbs as a junior -was 6'2" and 185 lbs as a senior

Again... it's a risk if you are making the argument from the perspective of analytics. From the perspective of analytics, Allen was a terrible pick, no matter how you slice it. Analytics absolutely loves Baker Mayfield, which is part of why he went #1. And I 100% wanted to draft Mayfield over any other QB. But with Allen you have to dive deep into personal background, film study, whiteboard breakdowns, one-on-one's and so on. Scouting is harder, more time consuming and very subjective. So, yeah, this is boom or bust. But I think if Beane is a very smart, observant, intuitive scout (GM), then the boom will be more like BOOM!!!! As for the 2nd round picks... who cares??? Honestly, Allen is literally the only player who makes this draft a success or a bust. If he turns into a Franchise QB, those two 2nd rounders will be quickly forgotten.

I think Allen is going to (hopefully) be an interesting case study as far as the NFL draft goes. In the "scouting vs analytics" discussion, Allen becoming a Franchise QB would be the ultimate argument for scouting. It's really that simple.

What if Allen wins the QB competition? Beane already said Allen is coming in as the #3. McDermott always says every position is an open competition. I've really been coming around more and more to thinking that Allen should just start right away, as long as he feels ready. But what's great about Allen is he actually said, amazingly, that he's ready to do whatever the coaches want him to do, even if it means being the backup for a couple of years. I don't remember where that interview was, but he didn't say that as a coward. He said it as a team player because you could tell he really wanted to start, but unlike Rosen, Allen won't pitch a hissyfit if coaches want him to sit and learn. I think Allen might actually be ahead of the game of all the rookies in terms of knowledge of an NFL offense, already. Watching all the videos I could of his throws over the last couple years at Wyoming, I'm thinking some of the accuracy concerns are a bit overblown. Allen isn't like Manuel was in 2013: a complete teardown in terms of mechanics. EJ never really got that opportunity. I don't know that Allen needs it. He has things to fix, but I don't think he's nearly as raw as advertised... and I'm certainly guilty of thinking he was too raw for us to draft in the first place. But while I think there's a decent chance McCarron is our starter this year, I'm also starting to think Allen might be close to the favorite to win the week 1 gig, and I don't think anymore that would be the worst thing, either.

If you listen, Palmer sounds like he's almost holding back on his excitement of Allen in relation to Darnold.

I don't think that's his point. Our 2 biggest needs we're Franchise QB and MLB. We got the #1 or #2 MLB prospect and, depending on who you ask, a #1, #2, #3 or #4 QB prospect in an extremely top-heavy QB class that saw 5 QBs drafted in the 1st round, most of who were drafted about where they were projected and weren't massively overdrafted like we did with Manuel back in 2013. It's perspective... it means stop whining because we got 2 players by the 16th pick who were being mostly projected higher.

I think this video is worth a watch. It's an interview from before last season: Some interesting notes, particularly about why he may be so raw and playing at Wyoming: - 3 sport athlete in HS - Could throw a 92 mph fastball in baseball as a Senior. -was just 5'10" and 150 lbs as a sophomore -was 6'0" and 180 lbs as a junior -was 6'2" and 185 lbs as a senior Plenty of other interesting nuggets in here, though.

I said as soon as it happened I hope I didn't jinx us I think I railed against him enough in the pre draft process to build up enough cache so he'll still be good moving forward even if I start liking him

So HappyDays posted this thread with a 30+ minute Matt Waldman film room breakdown: Lots of exceptional breakdowns in here and Allen demonstrates he has the ability to be very well rounded. But there are 2 quotes that stand out to me as "highlights" or "scouting notes" inserted: "Emotional IQ/Strategic Wisdom is what separates top franchise QBs--and it's the most difficult thing to teach in any industry!" "Allen's on-field emotional IQ based on football behaviors has a lot of opportunity for growth and he'll be entering a league that is really hit or miss with training and development." To me, the 2nd quote says Allen has some work to do with on-field wisdom and Emotional IQ. He points to a couple examples, particularly a play where he sees no coverage to one side of the field and instead of rifling it to his WR with his howitzer for a potential TD before any defender could reach him, Allen floats it in. Still a positive play. Still a 1st down. Could have been more. But the thing is, based on the kid in terms of personal background, he seems to have the Emotional IQ and enough smarts to develop that strategic wisdom already. In the end, that aspect of what Waldman talks about is the reason I have a decent amount of confidence Allen can succeed.

Okay... this thread needs legs, but I understand why it doesn't have them simply because Waldman's video is just over 30 minutes. Lots of exceptional breakdowns in here and Allen demonstrates he has the ability to be very well rounded. But there are 2 quotes that stand out to me as "highlights" or "scouting notes" inserted: "Emotional IQ/Strategic Wisdom is what separates top franchise QBs--and it's the most difficult thing to teach in any industry!" "Allen's on-field emotional IQ based on football behaviors has a lot of opportunity for growth and he'll be entering a league that is really hit or miss with training and development." To me, the 2nd quote says Allen has some work to do with on-field wisdom and Emotional IQ. He points to a couple examples, particularly a play where he sees no coverage to one side of the field and instead of rifling it to his WR with his howitzer for a potential TD before any defender could reach him, Allen floats it in. Still a positive play. Still a 1st down. Could have been more. But the thing is, based on the kid in terms of personal background, he seems to have the Emotional IQ and enough smarts to develop that strategic wisdom already. In the end, that aspect of what Waldman talks about is the reason I have a decent amount of confidence Allen can succeed.

Really awesomely well said. I feel about the exact same way. Analytics hate him and say he's destined to be a bust. There's really no denying that. Gotta go back almost 4 decades to find a successful case study with the broad similarities to Allen. All I've been doing since seeing we drafted him was looking at whatever I could find on YouTube. The kid himself is driven and is going to have a chip on his shoulder for the rest of his life, most likely. Talk about a late bloomer... guess the main reasons he wasn't recruited was that he played somewhere no one from college really recruited and he was considered "small" (6'0 and 180 lbs by one account) up at least til his Junior year in HS. So he's been working his @$$ off ever since. Apparently his recall is fantastic,too, and he was excellent at the whiteboard with NFL teams So my other worry of him being in an NFL offense like Wentz was but not really understanding it goes a little out the window. Right there with you

You forgot smarts. Football smarts, in particular. Until this process played out, I didn't know how smart he was. From what I had heard and read and seen from the little I watched in games, it looked a whole lot like he would too often go places he shouldn't go with the football or would only get to his 1st or 2nd read before all hell breaking loose. Having looked into things a bit more, I understand there's probably a lot more to that story. That was maybe one of my biggest issues about the player himself. But reports are he was fantastic at the whiteboard with NFL teams. And we all know about his 37 on the wonderlic, which measures smarts in general, and aren't really football related. But I think all that will really help him absorb the NFL game and get up to speed to the point where I'm starting to think he's already the favorite to start right away and may play pretty decently in his rookie year. Here's hopin!!!