[First half thread: Wk 17 Dolphins at Bills (CBS)]

McKenzie loves the cart so much he tried to catch another ride.

[Walt Coleman retires]

Sorry if this is breaking the live game rule, but I thought this was worth posting:

 

 

[First half thread: Wk 17 Dolphins at Bills (CBS)]

Clay just stiff armed a defender and picked up the first. Yep, magical elixir. Unfortunately Mills didn't get any.

[First half thread: Wk 17 Dolphins at Bills (CBS)]

1 minute ago, Big C said:

If paused the screen when Shady caught the ball, no way you think he picks that one up.

 

That was the case once or twice a game for the past 3 seasons. This year he lost it. Nice to see it again.

[First half thread: Wk 17 Dolphins at Bills (CBS)]

I've missed that Shady this year. Did every Bill drink a magical elixir before this game?

[First half thread: Wk 17 Dolphins at Bills (CBS)]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsMagic1 said:

So the Jets get Jonah Williams instead of us in draft...so what 

 

Couldn't care less about draft position. We need to draft a receiver and that value will start in the middle of the 1st round.

[First half thread: Wk 17 Dolphins at Bills (CBS)]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is on the brink of elite as it is. 

 

No doubt. I think the one thing he's been missing is turnovers. I know that's nitpicky as hell but that's what separates the elites.

[First half thread: Wk 17 Dolphins at Bills (CBS)]

I appreciate that Zay suddenly found a pair of hands for this game. He should hang onto them.

[First half thread: Wk 17 Dolphins at Bills (CBS)]

If White can suddenly develop great ball skills he will be an elite CB for a decade.

[Josh Jacobs- will be best RB in this draft class]

Agreed I've been looking into potential RBs and he might be my favorite one I've looked at. Good article on him here:

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2018/12/19/5-play-prospect-rb-joshua-jacobs/

 

Daboll coached him too so the connection is there. He runs hard, blocks well, and has good hands to catch the ball. I would love that pick in the 3rd round. Probably not any earlier though.

[Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"]

20 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

2. Pat Mahomes - 35.3 PPG

 

Yes but Mahomes isn't a precise passer either. That's actually the positive comparison I would use for Allen, not Cam Newton. Mahomes is not slicing up defenses like Brady or Brees. He excels at reading the defense, and he uses his pure athleticism to make up for less than ideal ball placement. And the Chiefs have surrounded him with an offense that can catch slightly off target passes. Kelvin Benjamin didn't go to Kansas City and suddenly learn to catch the ball. He still sucks. I take that as a sign that the offensive talent here is severely hindering Allen's ability to develop because he is the entire offense. At the same time he will need to develop and read the field better or he won't last long. It has nothing to do with his accuracy.

[Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"]

54 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Cam Newton's completion percentage went up 10 points because he threw 123 passes at Christian McCaffrey this season and McCaffrey caught 87% of them. 

 

His accuracy didn't change at all. He just threw more passes to an elite pass catching running back. 

 

I know. That was my point. Completion percentage doesn't equal accuracy. It is honestly the worst metric you can use to evaluate a QB on his own. I much prefer passer rating and YPA as far as traditional metrics go. Of course Allen isn't doing well in those on the whole for his rookie year. IMO the reasons for that are, in order, Allen not reading the field properly, his surrounding cast, and then his accuracy. And I consider his accuracy well below the other two problems.

 

If he was more precise with his ball placement, say on the level of an average NFL QB, I think he'd maybe have 2 more completions per game started. That would be 20 more completions on the year, which would bring his 51.7% completion to 58.5%. Personally I see at least 2 clear drops per game which would have the same effect, and that isn't accounting for the general talent level of his offense which we all know is historically bad. If he was reading defenses on an NFL average level I think he would have an extra 4 completions per game which would be a 65.3% completion even with this useless offense around him. That is what I want to see him improve on. I don't see a ton of passes missed due to poor accuracy, at least relative to a normal NFL offense, but I do see a fair amount of poor reads and easy targets ignored.

 

I recognize that those are all very hypothetical numbers but my eye test tells me his accuracy is not a big concern. If he learns to make the right throw, because his positive plays tend to be 10+ yards at a time, and he is mobile, we will have a very successful offense despite having a QB with below average accuracy.

[Jonah Williams or Ed Oliver??]

I wouldn't like either pick. I think they are both overrated. I'm not even sure they are the best OT and DT in this class. I am actually hoping we end up drafting 10th or lower and miss out on both.

[Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"]

19 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

The notion that Allen's completion percentage would be closer to other QBs when factoring in these throws was something that never made any sense. No matter how you slice it, he's one of the least accurate QBs in the league. 

 

It depends on what you mean by "closer to other QBs." Will Allen ever have the completion percentage of Drew Brees? I highly doubt it. But he could certainly get to a more acceptable level, over 60% for sure, if he gets a better offense around him. This is a very very small sample size but in KC Kelvin Benjamin has 2 catches on 4 targets. That was our #1 receiver for half the season. Yeah it's only 4 targets but that's 50% completion to him so far, and honestly if he was the #1 receiver there I don't think that would improve much.

 

I don't think anyone has said drops alone are forcing his completion percentage down. It is the talent around him as a whole. One thing that I don't believe gets factored into PFF's adjusted completion percentage is the ability of receivers to get separation. That has been a bigger problem for our offense than drops.

 

Of course Allen has to get better too. No one is denying that. His biggest supporters could have told you the day we drafted him that he wouldn't look like a finished product at the end of his rookie season. But the biggest thing he needs to improve, far more than accuracy, is reading the defense and making a quick throw. I don't expect his accuracy to ever improve much and I'm fine with that. His positive traits are at an elite level so you can make do with below average accuracy, but the right team needs to be around him and he needs to learn to run an NFL offense. Roethlisberger has never been a precise QB but he reads the defense well and he's always been surrounded by receivers with a big catch radius. That's the sort of offense I expect us to run with Allen for the rest of his career if he proves himself as a franchise QB.

 

A good example is Cam Newton. For the first 7 years of his career he completed 58.5% of his passes. In his MVP season he completed 59.8% of his passes. This year he suddenly became a 67.9% passer. And if you watch him play you will not see a guy who became 10% more accurate out of nowhere - he was pretty bad this season and was playing with an injured shoulder. But he's throwing more short passes to McCaffrey. That's the difference.

 

FWIW Chris Trapasso said all of this right after we drafted him:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/heres-a-plan-for-the-bills-to-get-the-most-out-of-josh-allen-and-it-involves-cam-newton/

 

Allen has an accuracy problem much more than a ball-placement issue, and I categorize those weaknesses differently. 

Former Bills first-rounder EJ Manuel had a ball-placement issue, meaning the vast majority of his throws that were technically accurate enough for his receivers to make a catch were typically a little too high, too low, behind, or too out in front of their intended target. 

Allen will throw five strikes in a row with pinpoint accuracy, then launch a pass three yards over a wideout's head. That style is most manageable in a system with lower completion percentage expectations in the first place.

For Allen to lead a successful team in western New York for the next decade, the Bills should not waste time and energy trying to fix his faults but -- ready? -- fully embrace them while highlighting his strengths, most namely his rocket arm and athletic talents at 6-foot-5 and nearly 240 pounds. Essentially, Buffalo needs to be content with a boom-or-bust passing attack.

I think this article is exactly right. Forget trying to turn Josh Allen into Tom Brady. It isn't going to happen. Get receivers that can get consistent separation and/or make tough catches and go for the big play a lot more than most offenses. Of course Allen needs to learn to take the check down when it's there. But in general the offense will be a 1 for 2 passing where the completion is 20 yards, versus a 2 for 2 passing where both completions are 7 yards each.

[Kyle Williams: Officially Retires]

I've met him twice. As incredible a football player he is, he's a better man. Godspeed to a Buffalo legend.

[Brady says he plans to play in 2019 and beyond...]

[Josh Allen's progress]

4 hours ago, Kemp said:

Who is a comparable to Allen in terms of "raw" in college that went on to a great NFL career?

 

It's early but Mahomes is the obvious answer. In college he had poor footwork and poor decision making, and he had no experience in a pro system. He was developed for a full season and now looks like a different player.

 

Not saying Allen will end up putting up Mahomes's numbers next year but yes raw QBs can develop with time. Allen has already made progress since Wyoming. They're bringing him along slowly, as they should.

[Again in 5 minutes of a game I see catches no Bills have made this year]

46 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I have been a supporter of Zay but this year it seems that on most plays he is blanketed. His stat sheet is sweetened with end of the game meaningless receptions where the DBs allow him to catch the underneath routes and allow the clock to run out. 

 

I've given up on Zay. His ceiling is a decent slot receiver and I'm not even sure he'll ever hit his ceiling. More likely he will bounce around the league for a few years as a #4 or #5 option. He has no ability to separate or track the ball and he has weak hands. Usually players that turn out good show something in their first couple years. Like Edmunds has struggled this year, but at least he has flashed elite potential. You can see the talent that made him a 1st round pick. Zay has never flashed anything. I can't remember a single wow play he has ever made, I can however remember a number of simple plays that he turned into incompletions. He cannot catch the ball in tight coverage but he also can't escape tight coverage, so he is basically useless. It's criminal that our top 2 receivers to start the year were Zay and Benjamin. No doubt that whole position group has been mismanaged and McDermott and Beane have to fix it next year.

[Again in 5 minutes of a game I see catches no Bills have made this year]

45 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

If that was Allen throwing that ball to Benjamin, we would have heard about how he should have put the ball out in front of the receiver so he could catch it in stride..

 

Yep I think this is exactly right. We can criticize Allen without pretending he throws the ball too hard for his poor little receivers to make a catch. Some receivers just aren't good and ours happen to be the worst collection in the league. Very few QBs have perfect precision consistently. Most are putting the ball where their receivers can make a play and they're expected to come down with it. Only in Buffalo is a difficult catch expected to be an incompletion or made into an excuse.

[Again in 5 minutes of a game I see catches no Bills have made this year]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

See my qualification above. Address the other difficulty and velocity issues. Those are real things that manifested on that play. 

 

Only Bills receivers have this problem. Case in point, Mahomes throws with about as much velocity as Allen and his receivers catch the ball with no issues, including off target throws.

 

Enter former Bills receiver Kelvin Benjamin:

 

 

Yeah the ball has some velocity on it. But there is no question he should make that catch.

 

So no, Benjamin wasn't having trouble catching Josh Allen passes. He actually just sucks. If Zay Jones went to Kansas City he wouldn't suddenly learn to win contested catches. He just sucks. Much like all of our receivers and tight ends. Foster is the only one to show any semblance of consistent catch ability and he is far from being a reliable target at this point.

4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Wilson completed 73% of his passes his last year in college.

 

Yeah, when he transferred to Wisconsin. His first 3 years at NC State he was 54.5%, 59.3%, and 58.4%. He didn't magically become 15% more accurate, he transferred to a better team. That actually proves the point that completion percentage does not equal accuracy. Or are you saying that if he had stayed at NC State his senior year he wouldn't have become an accurate QB?

[Again in 5 minutes of a game I see catches no Bills have made this year]

4 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

If Logan Thomas' fingertips extend in the opposite direction of all other human beings and end at his palms, then, yes, it was off his fingertips. If not, it was a ball he should have come down with.

 

Thank you. I tried to come up with a response to that insanity but nothing will beat this. I genuinely don't think some people watch other games. The catch that Croom made last week was one of the top 3 Bills catches this year and for most other offenses it is a standard catch made once or twice a week.

[Bills WRs and tracking the ball]

2 hours ago, Mopreme said:

This is what happens when you draft Zay Jones ahead of Juju.  Whoever made that call should be fired! 

 

I think the guy who made that call was fired already. Phil McGeoghan was Zay's WR coach at ECU and he was our WR coach last year. I honestly think he put in a good word for Zay and because the new regime was relying on limited information for that draft we took his advice. He was fired last year and now coaches for the Chargers. I still don't know what McDermott was  basing his draft decisions on last year. Beane wasn't even here yet and we redid most of the scouting department immediately after.

[Josh Allen's progress]

25 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Foster never touched the ball and I don't believe Thomas did either.  

 

Foster touched the ball but I can understand not calling that one a drop. This one however is inexcusable:

 

 

[Josh Allen's progress]

3 hours ago, RalphWilson'sNewWar said:

It would be a great time to re-examine Allen’s Scouting Reports that were being released Pre-Draft.  Just to see what the evaluators were seeing as his Pros and Cons coming into the league agaisnt where he is after his first season.

 

Didn't you start the thread about how you'd like Allen to stay in the pocket and throw the ball even if it leads to mistakes? It looks like that's exactly what he's been doing the past 2 games.

 

The pre-draft report on Allen was that it would take a year or two for him to develop because of how raw he was. If he doesn't progress from his current level he will not be a franchise QB, to state the obvious. I don't think his flaws are unfixable. Accuracy is not nearly as bad as I expected. Mobility and arm strength are even better than I expected. My biggest concern is his ability to read defenses but that's the kind of thing that often fixes itself over time with experience. If he can learn to make the right throw at the right time I think he will be great even if his accuracy never improves from where it is now.

1 hour ago, SWATeam said:

One recorded drop yesterday?  No way

 

We can go ahead and stop posting drop stats. I've had issues with the way they're recorded for years. Incompletions that any reasonable person would call a drop are not considered drops by the statistics. Watch other games and you won't see anything approaching the level of incompetency you get from our receivers. I don't need an ESPN stats intern to tell me otherwise.

[Josh Allen's progress]

4 hours ago, billspro said:

 

Not a short yardage check down offence. But when all the defenders drop back into deeper coverage he has to make them pay and hit the RB in the flat to keep them honest.

 

I agree, I would like to see that incorporated into the offense more. A run game will keep defenses honest too. Right now it almost looks like Allen is being coached to push the ball down the field. I don't always even see a check down option. I wonder if they are telling him to throw the ball down field and make it a learning experience. Wins don't matter at this point. The development of Josh Allen is way more important and they might be okay with him making mistakes if he is learning the game. I imagine it is easier to insert more check downs next year than teach the QB how to make big plays.