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HappyDays

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    Trading down from 32 to 33 may have been a dumber move than trading down to help the Chiefs!

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by HappyDays

    The 5th round pick doesn't play into the decision at all. In fact on the draft value chart the difference in value from pick 32 to pick 33 is slightly LESS than the other adjacent picks just before and after, which indicates that teams see those picks as closer in value. Presumably because #33 is like $2 million cheaper against the cap which is not an insignificant amount.

     

    If the player you draft at #33 is good you extend them after 4 years. The 5th year option is more of a bargaining chip than anything, and the same concept can be executed with a franchise tag if needed. But I mean really, we are that concerned about something that won't come up until 2029 when Josh Allen is 33 years old?

     

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    The Bills are on the clock: Pick 33

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by HappyDays

    27 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

    Beane presser now. Says they never tried to move up. Ben Allbright says they did. Someone’s lying 

     

    I just finished listening to it. Everything he said makes sense and echoes what I said earlier in the thread.

     

    He basically admitted their 1st round grades were wiped out by the time it got to their pick. He said he never wanted to give up #60 in a trade up so that limited the trade up options. So once the 1st round grades were gone he started taking calls to move back.

     

    On trading with KC specifically - he pushed back on the notion that we gave KC the player they wanted. Said they could have just traded up with the next team down, or maybe their player gets to their original pick anyways. He said in those discussions he's just making the best decision for the Buffalo Bills, not worrying about the team he's talking to. Mentioned that he's even had those conversations with our division rivals.

     

    He said he had other offers to move even further back into the 40s or 50s from #28 but didn't want to go back too far. He planned on picking at #32 but getting to move up 59 spots on day three to move back one spot was too enticing to turn down.

     

    Also he didn't exactly come out and say it but he somewhat implied that the added draft value he got could be used to move up on the board again tomorrow. I won't be surprised at all if we pick at say #33 and #50, giving up our 4th perhaps to make it happen.

     

    Beane still has to be right about the players he drafts tomorrow. But his execution tonight makes a ton of sense. He explained himself well.

     

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    The Bills are on the clock: Pick 33

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Beast said:

    Tonight was so unlike Beane.

     

    It's actually just like him. What he showed us tonight is that his 1st round grade draft board dried up quickly. In 2022 he traded down multiple times in the 2nd round until finally taking Cook, because his 2nd round grades were wiped out. Beane is very consistent. He will trade up if value plus need match up. He will stay put if he has multiple players in the same tier that match the draft round. He will trade back if he has no players on his board valued in the current round.

     

    Most evaluators see this large group of 8-10 WRs after the top three as 2nd round talents. Beane clearly agrees. So he wasn't going to reach up his board in the 1st. He got some value back and now can take those players in their proper round.

     

    I'm pleased Beane showed some restraint. He is learning.

     

    ****Major asterisk that if he does something stupid like take Dejean at #33 I will revoke everything positive I've said about his strategy in this thread.

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    The Bills are on the clock: Pick 33

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    Just now, Roundybout said:


    It’s more that you allowed your hated conference rival and defending champion to get THEIR guy. 

     

    Right but if we weren't taking Worthy, I highly doubt anyone else before the Chiefs would have either. So it simply comes down to the fact that we didn't value Worthy in the 1st round. KC gave us a 3rd to draft a player they probably would have gotten anyways.

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    The Bills are on the clock: Pick 33

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    The stupid thing about this conversation is we could have just taken say Adonai Mitchell at #28. And then the Chiefs would have taken Worthy at #32 anyways.

     

    Whereas with the move we actually made we could take Mitchell at #33 while picking up an extra 3rd and a favorable day three swap. But because it "looks" worse fans are less happy about that scenario than the objectively worse first scenario.

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    The Bills are on the clock: Pick 33

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, buffblue said:

    To me this would be acceptable but hardly a dream scenario. McConkey is the only sure thing of those five and he has a relatively low ceiling 

     

    No WR outside of the top 3 is a sure thing. That's why all along I've wanted us to draft two of them by the end of R2, ideally while picking up an extra 3rd. We're 50% of the way there. Beane just has to close the deal.

    The Bills are on the clock: Pick 33

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    The only reason people are upset is they assume KC knows better. But their WR draft investments have been meh overall. Rice looks like a good pick but it turns out he's a massive idiot. Moore and Toney and Hardman were straight up bad draft investments.

     

    If Worthy becomes a star this turns out to be an all time stupid move by Beane but let's wait and see how it turns out. And I say this as someone that would have been happy picking Worthy in the 1st, but his flaws are real and it's possible he doesn't ever come close to reaching his potential.

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    The Bills are on the clock: Pick 33

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Process said:

    Still very much alive. I'm waiting until we pick tomorrow before getting too worked up. 

     

    I'm not worked up at all. The only wrong thing the Bills could do tonight was draft a non-WR, although that nightmare is unfortunately still a possibility. As long as we still draft a WR at #33, we made the best possible move for sure.

    The Bills are on the clock: Pick 33

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by HappyDays

    The dream is still very much alive. Draft two of these WRs in R2, likely with a medium trade up from #60:

     

    Coleman

    Franklin

    Mitchell

    McConkey

    Polk

     

    BPA at #95, perhaps with a small trade up to get a true 3rd round graded player.

     

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    Live 2024 NFL Draft thread - Round 1 (Do NOT tip the Bills pick)

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

    Wow. I hate that decision from Beane. Worthy isn't my guy necessarily but why are you giving the team you are trying to catch and surpass a guy they really covet in a position where they need help?

     

    Best I can say is that if we didn't take Worthy, he was probably going to be there at #32 anyways. If KC wants to give us the picks for the pleasure, by all means.

     

    It's crazy ballsy of course. Because if Worthy is a star, Beane will never live it down. I'm mostly okay with it though.

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