HappyDays
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Posts posted by HappyDays
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2 hours ago, boyst said:
That's just it. Since I'm only a fan and the outcome truly doesn't change my life I think it would be awesome to go beat the Chiefs to get to the super bowl and win.
I want to go out there slay the dragon, ***** the prom queen, eat my cake, maybe even ***** the dragon and the cake. I want it all.
We can beat KC on Allen's 2nd Super Bowl run. That run can be all nailbiters. I want the 1st Super Bowl to be as easy as possible. Screw all the narratives. Once we get the pressure off us it will be exponentially easier to win the next one.
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4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:
I wonder what the odds would be of going to the Super Bowl in scenario A vs. scenario B? We need an oddsmaker on here. 🤣🤣
Depends on how you assign win probability in those games. My take is Baltimore and KC are both 50/50 games. Let's say scenario B is Steelers, Colts, Broncos in whatever order. I'd say 75%, 60% and 75% win probability in those games respectively even assuming all are on the road. So scenario A is 25%, scenario B is 33.75%. That seems right to me. I'd rather have 3 easier games than 2 harder games.
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No brainer, the 5 seed option. Super Bowl path of Jackson -> Mahomes, vs Rodgers -> Jones -> Nix. Not even a contest.
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7 minutes ago, TBBills Fan said:
MVS had a decent run with KC too tho
Meh. KC fans couldn't wait to get rid of him. He got 687 yards, then 315 yards, and then he was cut. He's a marginal NFL player that got overpaid based on potential that he never lived up to. Tyquan Thornton had a nice run with KC earlier this year because they had no other targets to get the ball to, and now with their WR room fully healthy he's doing nothing for them. That is basically what happened with MVS during that several game stretch with New Orleans. Not once did I ever regret letting him go or think we had misused him. Remember Isaiah Hodgins? Marginal players can have a few games where they produce above their weight class but in the end the ball doesn't lie.
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1 hour ago, TBBills Fan said:
This and MVS having production after we let them go makes me wonder
Sometimes below average pass catchers just have an outlier season, and in MVS's case it wasn't even a full season it was a couple games. Mack Hollins had 690 yards with the Raiders in 2022. Our own Dawson Knox had 587 yards and 9 TDs in 2021. I don't think there's much to wonder about. Below average players always revert to their expected production. That's why MVS is now relegated to practice squads.
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2 hours ago, CapeBreton said:
Beane didn't like the WRs in 2020, so he traded for Diggs.
That's not true. They were definitely taking a WR that year. They decided to take the sure thing instead of the lottery ticket. Considering how well Diggs paid off I'm not remotely upset at them over it.
To me the more depressing "what if" scenario is when we took Cody Ford over AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, and Terry McLaurin. That was Beane's biggest whiff IMO. Epecially since it isn't just hindsight, Brown and Metcalf in particular were seen as great prospects with uncoachable physical traits.
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Not that I'm happy to see Benford likely miss this game, but the upside is that we'll probably see Hairston in a full time role. I'm excited to see what that looks like. It's been a while since a Bills rookie has been a legit difference maker. Beane may have found 2-3 from this class.
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Bills 31
Dolphins 10
Miami is looking for any reason to mentally check out of this game, and I expect us to give them that reason by halftime. For some reason in recent years we've played them better in Miami than in Buffalo. I'll predict Allen scores all 4 TDs as he looks to build off an MVP performance against KC, especially with the likely return of Palmer and limiting Cook's snaps to recover from his ankle injury.
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1 hour ago, Big Turk said:
All too often, it seems their plan it to simply double down.
And honestly I'd like them to triple down. We tried opening up the pass against Atlanta and it went horribly. New England is our only opponent this year that has really managed to shut down our run. Other than that when we commit to Cook being the identity of our offense that is when we look our best. I'm not interested in getting any of these WRs more targets other than maybe Palmer when he's healthy. The offensive gameplan against KC was ideal - feed Cook, funnel the pass game through the TEs, pepper in some PA out of multiple TE sets, spam screens to Shakir and the RBs. If you consistently do all that, then you'll get the occasional downfield pass to a WR like we had to Moore because the defense is over committing elsewhere. I hope Brady keeps leaning into that identity because it's what our personnel is built to do. Forget all of the outside noise about the passing game. Commit to our strengths and live with the result.
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1 minute ago, Big Turk said:
Then get him in more stacked/bunch formations or have him in motion at the snap...eliminates that problem immediately.
Sure get him some targets out of the slot, just understand we're not talking Cole Beasley in his prime here. And that still doesn't solve the overarching problem with this passing offense which is that we have no one who you can plant outside the numbers and expect him to separate consistently. Palmer is ideally a WR3 but he is the best option we have for that role so our only solution is get him healthy and hope that that is enough.
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1 hour ago, Big Turk said:
My thoughts are that Moore needs to be playing a bigger role in this offense
Moore struggles badly with physical coverage. As a result he is not a great first read option because he is often getting chucked out of his route stem. If you can get him a free release yeah he can get open but you also have to be mindful of his small catch radius. He's just generally a low margin for error type of WR which is why two teams in a row have let him walk and he was still available to be signed after the draft. I think his target share right now is exactly where it should be.
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Benford is concerning. He was limited with a groin injury yesterday and McDermott hadn't brought him up before practice, so that makes you think he got injured during practice. Now DNP today.
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The blockers deserve a shout out too. And I mean all of them. The OL, the TEs, the WRs, Gilliam... It's genuinely impressive how every single player on offense is 100% bought in to that identity. A guy like Shakir could just mail it in but he's bringing it to his CB trying to open up a crease. Guys like Samuel and Moore are running all the way across the field to get in the way of backside pursuers. Hawes has the technique of a 10 year vet. You could go down the whole depth chart and give everybody some kind of kudos.
I don't agree with building an offense that is better at running the ball than passing, but I can appreciate that they went all in on making it the identity of the team. Cook's vision and quick feet combined with these blocking schemes is the stuff of nightmares for DCs. Cook's 62.7% rushing success rate is the highest the NFL has seen since 2016 (hilariously it was Mike Gillislee). That doesn't happen with as many attempts as Cook has unless the RB and the blockers both are elite.
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18 minutes ago, LEBills said:
Ridley is toast anyway.Yeah maybe. He wasn't my first choice, or 2nd 3rd 4th or 5th choice for that matter. He did have 1,000 yards in each of the past two seasons and is on pace for about 800 this year in a poor passing offense. Beane wanted to upgrade the X position and Ridley would have done that at least. I'm not broken up about it though.
17 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:Considering the age of the player and the contract thats a tricky one. You get contract control for 2.5 years, but his base salary was large, and he will be 32.
Yeah I'm not sure what the plan would have been for 2026. His dead cap hit if cut as a post-6/1 designation next year is $11M and his normal cap hit is $20.2M which he definitely is not worth at this point. Maybe they would have ripped up his deal and given him a new extension? In any case I know Beane tried.
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I think what happened is Beane has decided Gabe Davis is going to be our field stretcher as soon as he's active. He didn't see Shaheed as so much better than Davis to be worth a 4th and 5th. Beane wanted a true X and nothing else. He tried getting Ridley but couldn't close the deal. Once that fell through there were no other options.
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The tidbit I just heard is that we were on the phone all day with Tennessee trying to get them to eat most of Calvin Ridley's base salary but we couldn't come to an agreement on the required draft capital.
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31 minutes ago, DaVinci said:
Here comes the end of Bosa.
Nah wrist injury doesn't concern me. Just no lower leg injuries. That's what's killed him in recent years.
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Worrying set of injuries but hopefully more caution than anything. Cook clearly was not right in the 2nd half of the KC game but gutted it out. I saw Bosa shaking his hand out a few times so he probably played through his injury too.
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44 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:
As for 20+ yard plays correlating with touchdown drives, I'd guess that's true for every team.
That's right. Explosive plays (defined as 20+ yards gained) quadruple your scoring expectation on a drive.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-explosive-plays-and-re-thinking-offensive-success
Your expected points on a non-explosive play drive is 1.2, versus 4.79 on an explosive play drive.
With Allen at QB explosive plays should be much easier to come by than the average offense. But we haven't made the investments around him to make them as automatic as they should be. That is what some of us take exception with. We've intentionally built our personnel to play a very low margin for error offense, and by definition that means every negative play feels like a drive killer.
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54 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:
Even Knox went down the sideline for a big pass the other day.. we have tight end stretching the field 20 yards down the field
That was a very nicely timed PA out of 12 personnel that 100% fooled KC. Brady won that play, not the receiver. I don't really count that as an example of Knox "stretching the field." But I will give our offense some credit for finding some explosive pass plays against KC. That was totally missing in previous weeks. That PA to Knox, Kincaid's TD, the 47 yarder on Kincaid's crosser, the flag route to Moore. No coincidence that all 4 of our TDs came on drives that featured those 4 plays.
In fact the outcome of drives in this game perfectly correlated to whether we had a 20+ yard pass play. On 4 drives we had a 20+ yard pass and scored a TD on all of them, on 5 drives we didn't have a 20+ yard pass and failed to score a TD on all of them. That's how critical it is to be able to produce those explosive passes.
I remain unconvinced that we can consistently create those plays with the current personnel, especially if we're ever in a situation where the defense knows we have to pass, and I would have preferred to add a weapon that gives us more consistency there. But maybe they can build off this last performance and prove me wrong. We'll see.
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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:
In the piece by Kubiak in the news that someone discussed, Kubiak said that teams are playing two deep a lot against the Bills.
I can't find the stat from this year, but last year we faced the lowest percentage of two high coverage shells in the NFL at 37.7%. This is per Joe Marino's substack. I swear I remember hearing we are similarly low this year but I don't know the exact percentage or ranking. Defenses are definitely very mindful of Allen's ability to deliver strikes to the intermediate area of the field, but they are not worried about us getting behind them. They're able to cheat a bit and compress short and intermediate passing windows because we have no way of punishing them for it. A lot of Allen's initial reads end up muddy because a coverage defender that should be in conflict is able to stay leveraged both low and high because they have no fear of one of our WRs darting past them.
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39 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
I don’t think anyone thinks Shavers is the answer. The point is BOTH Samuel and Moore are as fast or faster than Shaheed and we are NOT using them in that way. Neither was MVS or Harty last year, 2 guys that were doing what Shaheed was doing for the Saints before him we did not use in the same way here.
There's a lot more to being a vertical WR than just a 40 time. Samuel and Moore have never been vertical WRs... They don't have Shaheed's release, his ability to stack CBs, his ball tracking, his hands. Shaheed has his own limitations but the one thing he is special at is the one thing our offense still lacks.
Chiefs fans couldn't wait to get rid of MVS when he was there. He was never nearly as consistent in his role as Shaheed has been. Yeah he had a couple good games in New Orleans, and then he was never heard from again. Harty was a kick returner and gadget player whose career was ruined by turf toe. These are not good comparisons to what Shaheed has been for the last couple years.
No defensive coordinator out there is worried about anyone in our WR room getting behind their defense. You can see it in their compressed formations week after week. Last year we had Cooper who was a legit vertical threat and just having that threat on the field backed defenses off enough to make a difference. We're going to have to survive the rest of the year without that skill set. The Bills have chosen to impose that limitation on themselves and they have to make it work.
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This is the kind of move where I'll be mad if some other contender does it, but if no one does it that tells you something is seriously wrong with his health and/or his behavior and I won't blame Beane for steering clear.
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2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:
BTJ for sure. There were others I’m certain but those I know of.
I had heard they put in an offer for Metcalf before he was traded. We know they called on Olave. It seems that Beane gets involved in a lot of these discussions but is never willing to cross his own line. Just once I'd like him to cross it. The last time he did in 2020 we ended up with one of the most successful QB/WR duos in franchise history, regardless of how it ended. My concern all along with the trade deadline was that Beane would want to "win" the trade value. I'm more interested in winning a Super Bowl and you don't get there by staying in your comfort zone. That's my two cents.
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Would you rather playoff seeding scenario?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
That isn't true. Philly beat Green Bay, LA, and Washington to get to the Super Bowl last year. They didn't have to "beat the best," they just had to win against tier 2 and 3 opponents. Our path by comparison was Denver, Baltimore, KC. Even if you skip the Denver game I'd still take Philly's path last year over ours 100 times out of 100.
I don't understand Bills fans that worry about perception or narratives. The only narrative that matters is that we can't win a Super Bowl. Why are we being picky about what it looks like to get there?