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HappyDays

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Posts posted by HappyDays

  1. 4 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:


    I hear you. I guess it’s a matter of whether you can afford it. Seems like a poor allocation of cap space for a #3 WR, who will be mostly a decoy and maybe catch like 20 passes. They have enough other toys in that offense that can play that same role. 
     

    Agree on Tua! 

     

    I'll have to see what the contract looks like. If they're giving him like $10M per year I'll say they overpaid him, but I doubt he'll get that much at this stage of his career. I see him being the WR version of Jadveon Clowney for the rest of his career, hopping from team to team on mid-tier 1 year deals. So if they're giving him say $8M this year what are they missing out on instead? Wilkins and Hunt were walking no matter what. The 2nd tier FA market was pretty light at their positions of need, while the WR market was flush with talent. So why not build strength on strength, if that's where the market value lies?

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  2. 5 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

    And there is only 1 ball to go around. hill, waddle, Achane, and Mostert are All higher priority targets. 

     

    This is a positive, not a negative. I never understood this mindset. If OBJ is their 3rd best WR I hesitate to even call that a good problem to have because it isn't a problem. Loading up on offensive talent has been by far the most common way teams have made championship runs in recent years, so I'm never going to criticize a team that already has a lot of offensive talent for adding more talent on top.

     

    Not that this move makes me worried about the Dolphins. They have holes all over the defense. And they are still stuck with Tua. At this point I'm just wondering if they're actually going to commit to him long term... Fingers crossed that they do.

    • Agree 4
  3. 1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

     

    Have we been looking at the same BTJ?  😅

     

    I know my opinion of him is in the minority. I just don't think his package of skills comes together to create a true #1 WR in the NFL. As an explosive role player I absolutely think he has a place in the league. But that projection isn't a 1st round caliber talent for me.

     

    However if he quickly develops his route tree I will be wrong about him.

  4. 3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

    He is the DK comparison for me more than Legette or Franklin or whoever else has been compared at various stages. He is just a run downfield outside guy.

     

    I would even consider him a lesser prospect than Metcalf. I loved Metcalf and would have been equally happy with him or Oliver at #9. Metcalf had downfield traits AND alpha traits. That's what separates him from BTJ for me. BTJ seemingly just has an elite release and very good vertical speed. But if he can't win contested catches or highpoint the ball or bully through contact, how useful will such a limited route tree be? Metcalf had the same one-trick pony profile but I felt that his physical abilities complemented that one trick a lot better. BTJ has size but he doesn't really use it, and his hands and YAC ability are average at best.

  5. I don't know much about the player, but I'm glad they are waiting until the end of the second wave of FA to sign depth DL players like this, instead of their previous MO of agreeing to terms with players like Tim Settle on day one of the legal tampering period. This year Beane still made that mistake with a couple players that were on our roster in 2023, but finally stopped himself from making that mistake with other teams' UFAs. Baby steps.

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  6. 2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

    For those talking about Coleman there was some talk about WR separation last week on WGR. I take most of what they say with a grain of salt but they went over the WRs with the least separation over the last 5-10 drafts. I don’t remember the number. With the exception of Nico Collins, all of the guys were garbage. Coleman doesn’t get any separation. Take that fwiw but I am not interested in Coleman (and I’m team WR).

     

    A lot of the talk around Coleman reminds me of the talk around Josh Allen before his draft. It isn't people watching him play and then criticizing him, it's people throwing around opaque stats without context and counting that as scouting (not saying you are doing this). Stats have their place in the discussion but when people say stuff like "he has one of the lowest contested catch rate in the class" that tells me there is something inherently wrong with that stat, not with Coleman. Everybody who watches his tape agrees he is a contested catch monster. As far as separation from his defender that is never going to be his top tier skill, but boxing out defenders and separating at the catch point is arguably just as valuable, and there is more upside to his route running than many people give him credit for IMO.

  7. 13 hours ago, Beck Water said:

     

    Clapp started 11 games for the Chargers last year, but it looks as though he got injured his previous game and DNP against us. 

    Edit: looked it up, he was on IR actually.  Knee injury but couldn't find details about what it was.

     

    image.thumb.png.0cee8e584639f005a056e4f111f08371.png

     

    Joe Brady was apparently an offensive assistant with the Saints when Clapp was drafted (7th round)

     

    Ah you are correct, I misremembered. He must have been their #2 center, and they were down to their #3 when we played them.

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  8. He was the starting center for the Chargers when we played them last year. I remember thinking how lucky we were to play against their 3rd center in our matchup, and then our interior DL did basically nothing. So maybe our coaches were impressed and figured he was worth a shot as a camp body if nothing else.

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  9. 7 hours ago, without a drought said:

    This is why the Bills didn't want to do a bigger restructure on his contract and push more money down the road.

     

    Uh, no. The restructure they did opened up cap space both this year and 2025, and specifically was done in a way that increased Allen's salary.

     

    https://overthecap.com/inside-josh-allens-restructured-contract-with-the-bills

     

    Quote

    It was reported earlier this week that the salary cap starved Bills had restructured Josh Allen’s contract for salary cap relief but per a league source, the restructure went a bit further than originally reported and may set the stage for Allen bringing his contract a little more in line with the market as salaries continue to explode across the league.

     

    Prior to the restructure Josh Allen was going to count for $47,056,281 against the salary cap in 2024 and $56,556,281 in 2025. Allen’s salary in 2024 was $30 million which was middle of the league for veteran quarterbacks. The restructured contract saw Allen receive a raise for 2024 by borrowing salary from 2025 and 2028 and in the process knocked down the salary cap numbers for both 2024 and 2025.

     

    Allen’s 2024 compensation rose to $60 million which would have been second in the NFL prior to free agency (it is now third following Kirk Cousins mega contract with the Falcons). This is about $5 million more than Patrick Mahomes earned last season when the Chiefs moved money around in his contract.

     

    The restructure knocked Allen’s 2024 cap number down to $30,356,281 and his 2025 salary cap number down to $43,231,281. That represents savings of $16.7 million in 2024 cap room and $13.325 million in 2025 cap space. His 2026 and 2027 cap numbers increased by $11.675 million in each year.

     

    I would guess we end up extending him in the 2026 offseason, or 2027 at the latest. We'll keep kicking his salary cap hits down the road until he retires and then take our medicine for 1-2 seasons.

  10. Way too much analysis about the last drive of the Chiefs game. I know we had a chance at the end but it wasn't truly a close game. Only Hardman's hilariously stupid fumble kept us in it. Just like the 2022 divisional round where we were only in it at the end because Butker missed a FG and an XP earlier. And the only reason we even took advantage of these unlikely opportunities in each game is because Allen himself made several miraculous improbable plays of his own.

     

    We honestly haven't come close to beating the Chiefs in the playoffs. It's been a total rout on everything but the scoreboard the last two times. The only difference between those games and the blowout 2021 AFCCG loss is circumstance, not performance. Personally I would rather not rely on several different unlikely events happening in the game and Allen simultaneously creating several miracles. I would rather the coaches and other players just do their jobs better. Mahomes doesn't have to create miracles to beat us. He just has to play a pretty good game. Any analysis outside of that is pissing into the wind IMO. Fun barstool argument but it misses the real point.

     

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  11. He's projected as a late day 3 pick. He apparently was a standout at the Shrine Bowl, maybe @GunnerBill noticed him.

     

    He was not invited to the Combine so makes sense we are bringing him in to work him out for ourselves.

     

    This may also signal a philosophical change, a willingness to let our depth DTs be late round rookies instead of overpriced free agents.

     

    Or it could mean nothing! That's draft season for you.

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  12. Most important thing about this signing is that we are now spending roughly $38M on the entire secondary (post-6/1 when Tre's cap hit is reduced), and that will likely be closer to $34M or so when Taron Johnson's extension is officially reported. This represents a welcome and major redistribution of resources from our secondary to more important positions on the roster.

     

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  13. 27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

    I know very little about him, not a guy I have ever really noticed on film. Not that I watched a ton of the Commanders last year. Interestingly his production (5 sacks, 8 pressures, 6 TFLs) seems to have been disproportionately in the games where he was rotating in as a backup rather than his 8 starts after the Young / Sweat trade. 

     

    4 sacks, 5 pressures and 3 TFLs as a rotational end; 1 sack, 3 pressures, 3 TFL as a starter.  

     

    Someone posted a video from Cover 1 earlier in the thread showing all his sacks from last year. Honestly none of the sacks look like it was because of his own ability. It was all bad/unaware QBs drifting into him for no apparent reason. So I guess that means he can set his edge which is fine, but as far as working into the pocket and creating a sack I didn't see any of that.

  14. 7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

    Great. Now we have three backup safeties. When do we get a starter?

     

    I think we'll be okay. It's just the safety position. I know we were spoiled for years by Hyde and Poyer but most defenses these days get by with mediocre safeties. Edwards was basically a starter for a championship defense last season.

     

    I would rather have Edwards and Rapp at safety than say Simmons and Poyer for example. The latter pair is obviously much more talented but redistributing resources spent on the roster to more important positions is a still a more valuable outcome IMO.

     

    Last year I was certain that we didn't have even a replacement level MLB on the roster and it turned out fine. This will turn out fine too, I think. As long as Beane doesn't use it as an excuse to reach for a safety in round 1 or 2.

     

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  15. 6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

     

    I agree you can increase odds taking better prospects...my only point is you don't really when you reach and over draft someone though.  I am only against reaching for the sake of taking a position.  

     

    We won't be reaching if we take a WR at 28. That's the opportunity a deep class provides you... Not an opportunity to wait until after the best prospects are gone.

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  16. 32 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

     

     

    Most the difference making WR's didn't come from the first round, and in this draft they will come in several rounds most likely.  So this notion that if you don't take him at 28 you won't get a difference maker isn't accurate.  

     

    What if we trade back at 28 and get the same WR they would have taken at 28?  Or take another player and then trade up higher in 2nd and get the same WR they would have taken at 28?  Both of those are better than reaching at 28 to take same player wouldn't you agree?  

     

    Im all for WR in the first...I even want to move up if need be to get our guy.  I am just saying this draft is so deep at WR that I am not married to one way to find our guy.  

     

     

    It goes without saying that there will be difference makers at every position found beyond the 1st round. But it also goes without saying that the chances are much greater in the 1st round. Half of the 1,000+ yard WRs last year were drafted in the 1st round. Half of the top 10 WRs in receiving yards were drafted in the 1st round. Out of 28 WRs with 1,000+ yards last season only 10 were drafted beyond the 2nd round. So yes it is possible but you're decreasing your chances exponentially with each round that you wait.

     

    I am fine if Beane trades back out of the 1st, in fact I have advocated for it. I would be wary of going past #36. But I am confident a 1st round caliber WR will still be available in that range.

    • Like (+1) 3
  17. 6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

    When the draft is deep at one of those positions but has a steep drop off at the other, then the one with the drop off he will often give more value too there because he can still find a quality player later at the other position.

     

    We don't need a "quality player" at WR. There are plenty of those available all the time. We need a difference maker. I think this is where the entire disconnect lies. A certain percentage of the fanbase thinks that the "need" at WR is just getting a starting caliber body, which is why that side of the fanbase is using Curtis Samuel and 2nd-3rd round prospects as an excuse to draft some other position high. But that's not the need. We need a difference maker who can play outside who has true #1 upside, and unlike a lot of years we have a real chance to draft that caliber of WR near the end of the 1st round because of the overall strength of the draft class. Passing up that opportunity to draft another small 3T would be a franchise shattering decision and I'm shocked that anybody in the fanbase would even preemptively defend it.

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  18. 6 hours ago, Gigs said:

    Fans have no idea how deep the WR class is

     

    No. Some fans are misunderstanding what "deep" means. It means that at every single pick we make there will likely be an available WR whose talent matches the value of that pick. It doesn't mean 1st round talents will be available late in the 2nd round, etc. If we want a 1st round talent we still have to draft them in the 1st round. Knowing that 3rd round WR talents will be available at our 3rd round pick (which isn't always the case) isn't an excuse to skip out on the top end talent. If anything it's an excuse to double dip at the position by the end of day two.

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  19. 7 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

    WR is strong deep into the 2nd.

     

    No it isn't. By our 2nd round pick we'll be choosing from the likes of Malachi Corley and Brenden Rice. Fine players that would be decent picks at that spot. But not likely difference makers. Do the easy thing and take a WR first. It is by far the most likely choice to have a meaningful impact on the team.

     

    6 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

    Are you talking about Harrison Phillips who was picked in the late 3rd?  

     

    Harrison Phillips was drafted higher than any WR under this regime. Think about that.

     

  20. 2 hours ago, Dan in Owego said:

    I may end up wrong, but this is my primary concern with Mitchell, don't really see the big dog mentality. Truthfully i think Coleman running a 4.6 may have helped get him to our pick, while i do have concerns over his separation, i do not over his big dog mentality on the field👊

     

    Exactly. I for one am sick of watching our #1 WR get bullied against physical coverage in the playoffs. I want my #1 WR dishing out the bullying.

  21. I wonder if Alec Anderson can play guard? Or is he center only? If he's a center only ideally I would love for Anderson to show out at center in the offseason and earn his way into a starting role, then leave McGovern at guard. I'm sure there will be a rookie with a chance to compete for the position too. I just don't want them preemptively giving McGovern the center job. Get the best three IOL on the field in their best possible positions whatever that looks like. I'm surprised how vocal the team is being about handing McGovern the center job.

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