HappyDays
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Posts posted by HappyDays
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any other relatively competent coaching staff would have won that game given the amount of talent this team has.
So true, literally if our players just knew the plays when they took to the field we would have won. Having 10 defensemen on the field for a key play at the end was an absolute joke, as embarrassing as anything the Bills have done during the drought.
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Nice stat.
1st down conversion % on 3rd&long passes (7+ yd) this year
Mahomes 45.2
Trubisky 40.8
Watson 38.3
Kizer 33.9
Allen 32.7
Falk 30
Kaaya 26.2
I hadn't seen this before Bandit but it's cool to see because I have Mahomes as QB1 and Trubisky as QB2.
Stats are basically useless when evaluating the jump from college to the NFL. Does that stat have any kind of past correlation? I can't find the data anywhere.
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I like Cian Fahey, but the gate swings both ways with this type of analysis
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fanragsports.com/nfl/patrick-mahomes-best-qb-nfl-draft/amp/
His analysis makes no sense even in his own terms. He concludes that Mahomes's floor is Eli Manning and his ceiling is Ben Roethlisberger which is an absurd thing to say in any context. He spends one section trashing Mahomes's decision making, then says his decision making is worthy of a 3rd round prospect. All he does is point out Mahomes's rare wow plays, which yes he does have, while downplaying his flaws. I mean he mentions all of Mahomes's flaws but concludes if you can just fix those flaws he will be fine. Well that's the point of the other article, QBs rarely fix major flaws like that. Like it's pretty well established that Mahomes's footwork is his worst trait, but that article only brings it up once, says he sometimes misses "day one" footwork mechanics.
So he ignores all of Mahomes's flaws and buys into the big plays everyone with a Twitter account has seen. Well the entire body of work taken as a whole is scary. Many of his wow plays are because he's playing against lesser talent. This article points out a few plays where his receiver bailed him out or a defender dropped a sure pick six. He won't get away with that in the NFL. He lacks the basic fundamentals and arm strength isn't enough to overcome that.
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Yes, I am sure that the QB gurus of the NFL such as Sean Payton and Bruce Arians are looking for a QB with "poor ball placement, poor pocket presence, poor footwork, poor anticipation, poor decision making". The only thing poor is Fahey's ability to evaluate a QB.
There are people that don't like Mahomes as much as Trubisky or Watson and that is fine. But Fahey's evaluation is so one-sided and negative that it appears he is just looking for suckers to go to his blog.
There are no "QB gurus" in the NFL. What does that even mean? NFL teams make poor drafting decisions all the time, moreso at QB than any other position.
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@presnapreads
Patrick Mahomes and the allure of upside
http://presnapreads.com/2017/04/02/patrick-mahomes-and-the-allure-of-upside/
Came here to post this, this is an excellent breakdown of Mahomes's game. It even compares to Tyrod briefly at the end.
To sum it up: poor ball placement, poor pocket presence, poor footwork, poor anticipation, poor decision making. But he looks good when he breaks out of the pocket to the right. No thanks at #10.
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I don't think anyone is arguing about next year. The question is whether Tyrod is a long term solution or a bridge qb.
If he's a bridge qb, don't you want the developmental qb on the roster "developing" so that the bridge is actually going somewhere?
Mahomes has prototypical size, athleticism, and a howitzer. He's creative and makes throws in spite of horrible mechanics.
1) the main point is to get the ball to the receiver. If he does that, I don't really care what his mechanics are.
2) the idea is to draft him to sit and learn for a year or two. It's up to our GM, scouts, and coaches to determine if the young man has the character, intelligence and adaptability to break bad habits and learn.
Tarring him with a "far worse version of Cutler" brush is patently unfair. We KNOW Cutler's ceiling, limits, and stubbornness. He's a finished product with flaws that were never fixed. We absolutely do not know this about Mahomes. Further, we do know he played on a team that was defensively terrible, so he knew he had to put up fifty points a game to compete. This might provide some context for "careless gunslinging." Imo, it's a mistake to pass on him if he's available at #10.
Did you watch the videos? His issue is that he ISN'T getting the ball to his receiver. Many of his throws have horrible ball placement. And many of his careless throws come early in close games, they aren't all because they're behind. Of course Mahomes could develop and unlearn all his bad habits, but the same was true of EJ. It's very very unlikely that QBs with that many problems ever fix them.
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Watch these videos and tell me honestly he is a better choice than Tyrod next year:
https://twitter.com/cianaf/status/848358130077630464
https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/848358560836845568
https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/848360047251947521
https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/848363992804413440
https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/848366878162640897
https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/848370391278026753
https://twitter.com/Cianaf/status/848371458174853120
Besides arm strength, what are Mahomes's best qualities? I get it, he can make a few wow throws with his pure strength and willingness to chuck it down the field. But he looks like a far worse version of Cutler to me in these videos.
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April Fools Day never works on the weekend, it's a skip year for me.
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@CianF: About 30 percent of Mahomes' throws so far have been aimless heaves downfield.
@CianF: Like this. These two come from the same quarter. Both on first-and-10, not chasing the game.
Video: https://twitter.com/cianaf/status/847991868357038080
That video is pretty scary, and a lot of his throws are like that. Mahomes fits the profile of a 1st round draft bust. Looks the part and has a strong arm but doesn't have the mechanics to succeed at the NFL level without making major strides. If the Bills are smart they'll try and find their Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott, not throw away their first pick on a huge long shot to ever work. The 2nd round should be the earliest we take any QB but we definitely should draft one at some point...
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Wow.
I don't see Watson getting past John Lynch.
Watson will be lucky to get taken in the 1st round
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INT's are frowned upon transplant, that is not the point people are trying to make.
I'd gladly accept 5 more INT's a season if it leads to 3 or more wins.
If that's the point people are trying to make, it's not a very good one. In what scenario do 5 more interceptions a season equal 3 more wins? It doesn't make any sense. Just upping our pass attempts isn't going to lead to more wins if that's what you mean.
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/pass-attempts-per-game
4 teams in the top 10 and 4 teams in the bottom 10 made the playoffs. There is no correlation between more pass attempts and more wins, but there is a correlation between less turnovers and more wins. If the choice is between less pass attempts and less interceptions, or more pass attempts and more interceptions, there is no reason to choose the second option.
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Amen happy. Not sure everyone in the camp agrees though. Too many still on the defense and wr's fault kick.
Qb at 10 should light a fire under his arse. Fight or flight time. Show me the money.]
I'm on the record saying I like Mahomes. If the Bills take him at 10 I will not complain, but I also don't want them throwing away the pick on any QB and make a 2013-sized mistake.
My position really is not that unreasonable or worthy of your constant childish mocking. I think having more QBs in competition is better than less, and I have no issues at all devoting cap space to the most important position in all of sports if I think there is upside. I guess you don't think Tyrod has any upside but I very much disagree with that. IF he can get to around 2015 efficiency with moderately higher attempts, you can win a Super Bowl with that. The Broncos won it with worse, the Seahawks won it with about the same as what I'm saying, the Ravens won it because their average at best QB lit it up for one playoff run.
So I think it makes sense to bring Tyrod back and bet on his upside, while also drafting another QB, to go in with as many options at the position as possible. Because YOUR way would leave us with 1 QB in our entire depth chart. We would have to pick up a random veteran starter (Orton, Fitzpatrick, I'm falling asleep here), and bet on a rookie. Why not bet on both?
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Well, yeah. He has to show more this year than he did last year. I don't think a single person in my camp disagrees with that.Not throwing the ball = 1-6 vs .500 teams.
Who cares. He must improve or he's another Keenum, Osweiler, Tannenhill, Simien of the world.
Show me the money Taylor. Or chop off another 10 million and backup Cardale or "QB X"
Qb's who threw more int's that Tyrod last year.
Matt Ryan
Aaron Rogers
Russell Wilson
Brees
Big Ben.
Stafford
Mariota
Jameis
Luck
He stinks bruh. Pick a diff bills player to Stan. Sometimes you have to throw the ball instead of chanelling Trent Edwards.
I, uh, don't think you know what the word "rate" means.
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Colin Kaepernick had a lower interception rate than Tyrod last year.
So did Cody Kessler.
Well first of all no one said interceptions are the only important thing, just that you can't downplay them. I for one think Kaepernick would have been signed weeks ago if not for his protest. Kessler had low attempts but it's still impressive, and he did play much better than anyone thought he would. But I didn't say 10 out of 10 teams with low interception numbers make the playoffs, just that it correlates well. You can't deny that simple fact, all you've done is what I already did which is point out examples of teams that the correlation didn't work.
And secondly, Tyrod has 2 straight seasons of consistent ball protection. Kaepernick was a pick-6 king before this year and Kessler was a rookie. It's fair to question whether their low rate will stay the same. 2 consecutive seasons of low interceptions tells me that is a strength of Tyrod's. One more season of the same would reallt solidify it.
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Turnovers are one of the most important stats in getting to the playoffs.What most are trying to say is that INT's are bound to happen when you play the QB position like you're supposed to. Many good to great QB's throw more INT's than Taylor because they are more aggressive when they pass.
I would gladly trade off a few more INTs for TT to make more throws.
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/interceptions-thrown-per-game
Out of the top 10 teams in least interceptions thrown, only 3 did not make the playoffs (Bills, Vikings, Bengals). Out of the bottom 10, only 2 made the playoffs (Texans, Steelers) and let's be honest the Texans didn't deserve to be there.
Going back to the 2015 season, results are similar. Only 2 of the top 10 teams failed to make the playoffs (Bills, Rams) and only 3 of the bottom 10 teams made the playoffs.
It is simply wrong to say that interceptions don't matter, or that they only matter a little. They matter a lot. The stats back it up every time.
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Is this for real--did he tweet this?:
"Get out of your own way: A negative attitude makes you a clog in the machinery of life instead of a cog. #DominateLife"
Yup his whole twitter account is like that.
https://twitter.com/GerryMatalon
No matter what part of life you pursue, if you study the part, act the part & look the part, you #improve your chance to stand apart.
#DominateLife
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This is literally an episode of Arrested Devlopment.
Based on the guy's picture:
And tweets:
Get out of your own way: A negative attitude makes you a clog in the machinery of life instead of a cog. #DominateLife
I'm gonna say this is 100% accurate
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This is an underrated signing, he has a very good chance to get his career back on track here. It's exactly the kind of guy that Whaley has been good at finding and I bet he exceeds expectations.
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I did do that. You attempted to spin it into something I wasn't saying, twice. You can try to be intellectually honest, if you want.
No, you didn't. But I've wasted enough forum space on you.
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Someone is salty. I'm sorry TT ain't the answer dude.
Yeah I am salty about posters like you. Can't even acknowledge that Tyrod had a good game against Seattle. Instead you have to pull out some random crap to wave it away. You could have even given us a link to an article about how the Seahawks defense doesnt gameplan around mobile QBs, or something, at least it would have been a start. But nah that ain't worth your time. It's easier to pick the first random thought that comes to your head and throw it out there. You're not arguing in good faith, you're just reaching for anything instead of admitting Tyrod has had good games. Here I'll start - Tyrod has had bad games. He's had mediocre games with bad stretches. I don't need to try to convince you that I heard the whole team ate bad tacos the night before the Baltimore game, and that's the real reason Tyrod looked like crap. I acknowledge he had a bad game and include that in my analysis. If you want to offer reasons for why the Seahawks game isn't as impressive as it seems, fine, offer reasons. Don't just throw **** at the wall.
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Because they don't emphasize his running threat. Are you even attempting to follow along?
Then again, it was only 1 game.
Yes, the best overall defense of the last 5 years didn't game plan to account for Tyrod's mobility. It's not like they had any kind of experience with mobile QBs, say from one of their rivals. Sounds reasonable based on some out of context factoid you think you heard. Thanks.
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I thought you could figure it out. My mistake.
Seattle has a reputation for game planning less to their matchup than most NFL teams. Hence, playing contain, "making him be a QB," are feasible things that a team like Seattle did not emphasize as much as Baltimore.
I suppose you'll offer a good source for this, and then you'll explain why Seattle's defense traditionally plays better against QBs than average but played worse against Tyrod than average. At some point you'll have fully completed your argument, maybe 5 posts from now if we're lucky.
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Nice straw man.
When your post is a single question that you don't bother to elaborate on or answer on your own, you open yourself up to straw men arguments. But feel free to actually explain your point instead of posing weird questions that imply other bizarre points.
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Hasn't it been well-established that Settle doesn't game plan on a per opponent basis as much as other teams?
I, uh, don't even know how to respond to this. If you want to make the case that Seattle is winging it every week and didn't know the key to our offense was our run game, I'll let you own that argument.
2017 Draft party for club and suite STH
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I went last year, no players but Rex came out and gave a little speech. Steve Tasker was walking around. A couple years ago my parents went and got a picture with Stephon Gilmore who was walking around. So I think it's different every year.