HappyDays

The Chiefs are a poor example for a myriad of reasons that can be boiled down to two things: 1) Their offense was in fact worse last year, primarily because their WRs mostly stunk. It's like everybody forgot about this because they won the Super Bowl. It was by far their worst offense of the Mahomes era. For the first time they had to play on the road in the playoffs solely because their offense wasn't talented enough. 2) There are a number of factors about their team that allow them to overcome flaws no other franchise can overcome. I'm not going to take time listing all of those factors, they are plainly obvious after a minute of thought. We shouldn't be mimicking the Chiefs strategy. We should be trying to overwhelm them and the rest of the NFL with pure offensive firepower. The first window's strategy didn't work yet the second window is starting off with the same exact strategy. I really don't understand how anybody can point to the unicorn franchise of this generation and act like that means the strategy isn't flawed.

Meh I think it's fair as is. The GMs have access to info that we don't. The league thinks Franklin is not a top 100 prospect for whatever reason. GMs probably know that that's how the league feels about him, unless one team is way outside the consensus. So having the true draft board after the fact equalizes things a bit. Good exercise @Logic. Bump the thread in two years.

I'll just do the first 4 rounds. #33 WR Keon Coleman #60 OT Kingsley Suamataia #95 WR Troy Franklin #128 SAF Jaden Hicks

I appreciate how much the goal posts have changed in this discussion. Before the draft it was "we don't need a WR with our first pick, there will be guys at #60 and in later rounds that will be better value." Instead the next WR taken after our 2nd round pick was taken at #80 (because the 2nd round talents were snatched up much earlier, as easily predicted) and the Bills didn't like any of the other guys enough to take them with our later picks. Then it became "there are still vets in free agency or available for trade!" So much for that, apparently camp bodies is all we can afford. Finally we've made it to "Mack Hollins or Justin Shorter are a better WR5 than people think." The usual suspects that were defending the WR room last year are defending the even worse WR room this year.

It's my own fault. When Beane said they were in the process of signing someone I envisioned DJ Chark or something along those lines, not an above average WR by any means but a baseline outside WR that at least gives us better pass catching ability than Mack Hollins. I should have known better.

They're just easy to find. Look at the free agent market this year. It was littered with solid safeties. Justin Simmons is still available. In McDermott's system he hasn't needed safeties with excellent athletic traits. Hyde and Poyer were 5th and 7th rounders respectively and were great in our system primarily because of their football intelligence. And in this draft in particular, picking a safety early was not where the value was. After we picked Bishop 10 of the next 20 picks were OL. That's where the league told us the value was at that spot in the draft, which was a common thought amongst draftniks before the draft too. We waited until the 5th round to dip into a particularly deep OL class, instead choosing to take positions that were considered weak in the draft in the 2nd and 3rd and 4th rounds. It was bad value management by Beane IMO.

Keon Coleman name dropped Hamler in his first interview after getting drafted. Said something like "fit in with KJ Hamler and those other guys up there." I thought that was interesting at least. Did someone on the Bills clue him in that Hamler was going to have a bigger role on the team than anybody has thought? Or did he just see his name on the roster and assume? If Hamler is fully healthy he has legit field stretching ability. Feels like quite a long shot to bet on though.

Sure it will. When Diggs was in his prime in 2022 and the first half of 2023 we were still missing a true WR2. Even in a best case scenario for Coleman's career I don't expect him to be close to as good as Diggs in his prime right away, nor is it fair to expect that. But even if he immediately pans out to his potential, the #2 outside WR is still a gaping hole on the roster. So realistically we very likely got worse at WR1 and WR2 even in a best case scenario.

Oh my God. It's really going to happen. Mack Hollins is going to be our primary #2 outside WR. That is actually the plan.

They're nothing alike as prospects. The frame, the play strength, the hands, the YAC, the contested catch ability, the routes they run, pretty much any trait you want to pick you will not find much if any similarity. There are valid concerns about Coleman as a prospect, but he was considered a late 1st/early 2nd round prospect for a reason, just like Gabe Davis was considered a 4th round prospect for a reason. Also if you wanted the Bills to draft a WR high, they did that. I'll use myself as an example - I did not favor McConkey as our first pick, but I still would have been pleased if he was the pick because from a high level overview of team building it would have made sense. And then I would have watched to see how he developed as a player. I learned the hard way with my incessant negative posting about Josh Allen before and after we picked him that you can't marry yourself to one or two specific player outcomes. As strongly as you feel about Coleman, you don't really know how the player is going to turn out. You're just setting yourself up to look really dumb if he turns into an elite player. Again, using myself as an example - I still get occasional reactions on my (stupid) post in the original Josh Allen thread after he was drafted. I married myself to one or two specific player outcomes and thankfully I was an idiot to do so. Be happy the Bills at least used one of their top 150 picks on a player that made a lot sense based on the overall value and current roster state of the position. Personally I love him as a prospect but my personal evaluation is less important than the overall strategy that we executed with that pick. Contrarily I like Bishop as a prospect but hate that we drafted him when we did. As amateurs that just evaluate prospects for fun that is a more objective way to grade a pick immediately after it's made. It also doesn't help that your evaluation features a poor player comp that doesn't match up with pretty much anybody that has studied these players. Player comps are fun but they have very limited value in reality.

Wouldn't call Coleman a possession WR. He doesn't go down on first contact after the catch. He's got Deebo qualities with the ball in his hands. He offers more of a total package than Benjamin, Funchess, or the other comparison I've seen thrown around Mike Williams.

It isn't just his words. It's his actions more than anything. Trading down whenever possible. Trading a pick this year for a pick next year. Cutting a bunch of veterans. Trading Diggs for a future pick and taking on a larger cap hit this year. When he says it's a "transition year" it's pretty easy to read into what that means. By the way I have zero issue with the moves we made to trim the fat and prepare the team for the 2nd window of Allen's career. All of that I thought was necessary, and I appreciate that Beane didn't half ass it. My issue is that in a rebuild year his draft picks mostly represented short term thinking. A safety, a backup DT, and a backup RB end up being the middle of our draft. None of those picks are going to be difference makers in 2025, I'm sorry they just won't be. Carter is the only one that has a snowball's chance in hell. But they're all great guys with great back stories and they fill immediate needs, so Beane did the usual thing and stayed in his comfort zone. Just once I would love for these guys to go outside their comfort zone. Instead of taking the team captain with a high motor (but no athletic upside for the motor to unlock), take the physical specimen that shows up late to meetings and talks back to his coaches. Instead of taking a safety or a low upside pass rusher in the 2nd round because they think he can start from day one, take a guy that is all boom or bust. Really go for it. They haven't half assed the tear down but they're half assing the rebuild, and you can already sense the excuses and low expectations they are trying to set ahead of time.

It's certainly possible, I'm not going to discount that. It would take Allen having the best season of his career, Kincaid and/or Shakir really stepping up, and Coleman becoming a 1,000 yard caliber WR by midseason. If all of that happens we can possibly overcome the defense inevitably taking a step back and putting on a disappointing performance in the divisional round. It sure seems much less likely than it did at the same time last year though. And I have very little confidence that the draft class this year is going to be littered with true game changers which is really what we needed if the plan was to have a championship ready team in 2025.

It turns out Beane hasn't learned anything from his mistakes. After failing to sign Hopkins and watching the Davis/Sherfield experiment fail, I really thought he would learn. Instead he admitted publicly that at certain spots in the draft he chose to pick other "needs" instead of good WRs still on the board. And apparently to him those needs were safety, backup DT, and backup RB. It's unbelievable. These guys are shortening and hamstringing Allen's career.

Beane has shown he can execute a tear down. He's done it twice now. Can he execute a rebuild? That remains to be seen. The first attempt failed. Now we're giving him chance #2 and the same head coach is along for the ride. And the first draft of his second rebuild was filled with poor strategic picks IMO.

Unfortunately I think there's zero chance of anyone getting fired next year. Pegula appears content to sit smiling in the draft room and talk to all the prospects on the phone like his own personal make-a-wish day once a year. There's no sense of any accountability at any level of the organization which is why the GM and coach feel comfortable taking "their guys" instead of shooting for the stars (literally). They're both coasting off of one pick they made six years ago.

Yeah good point, that speaks to the overall strategy. Everything they've done this offseason has set the roster up more for 2025 than 2024. This year they're going to let young players take their lumps, still try to compete for a championship but they're not all in. My worry is that this means McDermott and Beane both know their jobs are safe next year no matter what and feel no urgency to show improvement.

Loved: Coleman Liked: Van Pran-Granger Ok: Carter All of the round 5-7 picks Disliked: Bishop Hated: Davis

This quote from Beane defines the entire draft strategy: He is giving it to us straight. The Bills are in a rebuild year. So he went for all team captains. Guys that interviewed well. Guys that he believes set a new foundation of leadership in the building. He hunted for short term needs that fit the singular character profile he and McDermott feel comfortable with, at the expense of talent at premium positions. And he is telling the fanbase to temper our expectations without coming right out and saying it. I'm not gonna grade a draft until we see how all the players turn out, but the overall philosophy shown this weekend is deflating and uninspiring.

I mean that response is a joke. I hope he's lying and they have a trade lined up. The offense still doesn't have enough weapons.

Nope. And apparently that's just how Beane likes it. Really disappointing. He came right out and admitted that "other needs" took precedence.

Coleman is much more athletic than Benjamin. Benjamin just had length, but once he caught the ball the play was over. We need to stop with the lazy comparisons. Let Coleman become his own player. https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/kelvin-benjamin https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/keon-coleman Pretty much nothing alike. The only comparison is their 40 times.

Only one premium position drafted in the first 160 picks is a big miss. Especially in a draft that was particularly deep at three premium positions.

Our reasonably aged safeties also didn't stand out in the 13 seconds game. Our defense is going to underperform in the playoffs. That is just a fact of life under current leadership unless we have like 5 all-pros. So yes I want us to if anything over invest in the offense and try to just purely overwhelm teams in the playoffs. It's nothing against Cole Bishop as a player. It's the value of taking him versus the value of taking a different more impactful position that might make a meaningful difference in January.

I mean this was considered one of the deepest WR drafts ever, so yes I hoped we would use that opportunity to double dip. I am still very much against the safety and RB picks where we made them but it is what it is. If it's announced that we're trading for Aiyuk post-6/1 I won't have any complaints though. Adding a player of his caliber AND a 1st round (close enough) WR in the same offseason would be the smartest thing Beane has done since drafting Allen.