HappyDays

WRs are ranked by yards, not by targets. Shakir WAS the #1 pass catcher on the team by that metric over the last 11 games. He bested #2 and #3 by over 300 yards each. And don't make the mistake of assuming his yards per target will stay the same as his total targets go up. His skill set lends itself to low volume high efficiency usage. Don't mess with a good thing like we did with Gabe Davis after he excelled as the WR4 in 2020. A lot! Do you realize we currently have zero starting caliber WRs on the roster that can play outside full time? Shakir should be in the slot 75% of the time, Samuel should be at best a 50/50 split, and the other WRs on the roster aren't even worth mentioning. We have a QB who excels at throwing outside the numbers to the intermediate area of the field better than any other QB in the league, and I repeat we have zero true outside WRs on the roster. We can't afford to screw this up. Diggs and Davis both could be planted outside. We no longer have either on the roster. So we need TWO replacements, not one. And both replacements have to be good enough to start. If we wait until the end of the 4th to find the second guy, I guess we'll have to sign OBJ or something like that just to have a functional outside passing offense. But I would rather just invest high in young players and start making up the massive under-investment we've made at that position since 2020.

I'm good with trading up in the 2nd for McConkey, after taking another WR before him. I personally have no interest in taking a WR in the 1st round whose signature trait is route running. You can find great route runners throughout the draft. I want a physical stud, the type that you never find outside the top 50. We had the best route runner in the NFL for 3.5 seasons. It got us elite regular season production, followed by playoff matchups where DBs were allowed to bully him and erase his route running from the game. In this next cycle of Allen's career I want his #1 WR to be the bully. Let the route runner be the complement, not the engine.

Interesting you say that because Legette is the Metcalf comp for me in this draft. Size and speed and ability to go up and get the ball. Not a fluid route runner, but so much a physical stud that it doesn't matter. BTJ is a tough comp. Best I can come up with is a bigger Will Fuller.

More than doubling Shakir's targets from last year is not a solution. I can't even imagine a scenario where this would be true. Even if you just look at the last 11 games of the season (when he was the leading receiver on the team) he paced for 62 targets over a 17 season. You're actually making the pro-"draft two WRs high" argument here. You've proven that a world where the Bills don't draft two WRs high is a world where Shakir has to get a ridiculously high number of targets just to even have a functional passing offense. That world can't exist.

Here you go @Alphadawg7. Today's Locked on Bills episode was entirely about Shakir. He notes that out of every WR who ever measured 29" or shorter arms, the only ones to have meaningful careers were Hunter Renfrow, Isaiah McKenzie, and Braxton Berrios. Shakir would be the first to ever make it as even a 50% outside WR with that arm length.

I think he creates separation at the catch point - using his size to lean into the CB at his route break and create an available target. There isn't going to be a ton of wide open separation at the NFL level. It's more about creating leverage to give your QB a throwing window. I think Coleman can do that just fine.

I'm sticking with Keon Coleman. Every draft analyst I follow keeps posting his contested catch percentage and that's the end of the conversation for them. Personally I would bet on his size, strength, and competitiveness. He is not even 21 years old yet so he has room to grow into his skill set. When it all comes together I think he could be a true WR1. He won't separate with quicks but he'll bully defenders through the route, at the catch point, and with the ball in his hands.

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I'm not gonna go out of my way vehemently defending him. His failure to invest in WR and leave us in a desperate situation is worth criticizing. But I'm defending him under the assumption he is going to make a real investment at two starting WRs, whether in the draft or one of the remaining free agents or by trade. If he does, that will be two offseasons in a row where he finally made serious investments in pass catching weapons (although I am still totally confused about his failure to sign Hopkins last year). That tells me he has learned something even if it doesn't excuse past mistakes. Also it's pretty undeniable that the Bills had a championship caliber roster at least once over the past 4 seasons. 2021 for sure, probably 2022 if not for a series of mishaps that befell the roster.

If I had ever seen him show a shred of accountability I would buy that. Instead he turns around after a possible game losing drop against the Chiefs making a "this close" gesture and nonchalantly jogging back to the huddle. There's really no excusing his behavior. Two separate teams now, ended the same way both times.

Coming up to him in the locker room and making a stupid comment when he's already down on himself accomplishes what exactly? That's not leadership or teamwork. That's an emotional player letting his emotions get the best of him, as usual.

I like Simms but his track record on WRs is not particularly good. He gets blown away by physical traits, to a fault. BTJ can certainly release and separate vertically, but he has question marks everywhere else. My issue with him is that he isn't an alpha at the catch point. Can a pure vertical WR with a limited route tree and without elite catch ability really be a true #1? I have my doubts.

I don't want to trade for Aiyuk even if we can somehow make it work under this year's cap (and I believe this would be literally impossible in any case). The fact that this is an incredible WR class gives us an opportunity to get two very good WRs on rookie contracts instead of tying up a bunch of cap space. I also don't want to trade up in the 1st, for similar reasons. If we made a huge trade up for one of Nabers, Harrison, or Odunze, I suppose I would understand it. Not what I would do but I get trying to add a true #1 WR to immediately replace Diggs. But trading up for anybody else would be a big mistake IMO. I would rather get two very good WR prospects than just get Brian Thomas Jr (admittedly I'm lower on him than most, but even the consensus says that he is a tier below the top 3). My goal in this draft would be to come away with two WRs in the top 50. If a trade down partner is there I would try to trade back and get a 3rd rounder back, but staying at #28 and picking the best WR available would be perfectly fine. I would then trade back up into the 40s using one of our 2025 2nd rounders. Using that strategy, I would come away with two of the following WRs: Keon Coleman Xavier Legette Troy Franklin Ladd McConkey Adonai Mitchell Xavier Worthy I have my preferences from that list, and ideally we would draft two WRs that complement each other (one X, one Z), but I'm less concerned about the specific players drafted than I am about the position. Imagine coming away with two young studs at WR with high upside traits, to kick off the 2nd half of Allen's career. That should be the goal. If this strategy comes after an initial trade down we would still have one more top 100 pick to fill another need with a good prospect, and a litany of day three picks to fill out the rest of the roster. We would eventually enter 2025 with a normal complement of draft picks and a relatively good cap position. I would expect somewhat of a mini rebuild in 2024 but the future would look bright, and who knows maybe the rookie WRs hit the ground running and the offense looks even better than it did last year before long.

I know. But we happen to have the only QB in the league that can actually match Mahomes' play in the playoffs, so naturally it's frustrating that our current regime can't find a way to make that work. Assign blame to McDermott and Beane however you wish. Just don't be so simple as to say "Mahomes has 3 Super Bowls, Allen has 0, therefore Mahomes is in a completely different tier." Any difference in play between Allen and Mahomes is not the reason for the difference in their teams' results. To make that claim is to say that, like I said above, elite players and elite coaches don't matter. I mean I've seen real people on this forum say that Brock Purdy deserved to finish ahead of Allen in MVP voting. That's how insane the conversation has gotten. I guess it needs to be reminded from time to time that QBs represent the plurality of their teams' success, not the majority.

Imagine if we had Chris Jones and Travis Kelce over the past five years. Hell even just one of them and I am extremely confident we would have at least one Super Bowl win. By the way some of these people will go in other threads saying that Beane hasn't done a good enough job finding elite players. But why does that matter if Mahomes is the main reason Allen hasn't won a Super Bowl? So deep down they know the real reason. It's just easier to boil it down to something simple.

You'll find in this discussion that certain people have to pretend elite players and elite coaches don't matter. To me it's simple - If Allen and Mahomes play equally in a matchup, the Bills will lose every single time. Because in that scenario the people around Mahomes are far and away better than the people around Allen and that will be the difference. For us to get past Mahomes we either need to get a couple of elite players or we need a new coaching staff, or we have to just hope Mahomes happens to play below his standard. Under our current circumstances there's no realistic scenario where Mahomes plays well and we beat the Chiefs, and nothing Allen can do to force that to happen. He played the best game of his career against them in 2021 and it still wasn't enough. If people can't see that, it's on them.

He would give his life but he wouldn't attend OTAs? Trust me, the public image of Diggs as a football obsessed workout warrior is a mirage. He is the type that loves holding others to impossibly high standards but makes excuses for himself.

I think when you're a team like the Bills picking late year after year you have to be willing to take advantage of opportunities like this, where say the 40th ranked player on your board is available at pick 60 because of one really stupid mistake. Obviously you have to do a deep dive into the person and make sure it is in fact just one mistake, not part of a larger pattern. Who knows, maybe he even drops all the way to day three. He isn't an elite prospect. Some teams might drop him off their board entirely and decide the risk isn't worth the player. I personally would not go that far unless I uncovered a pattern of behavior.

I'm posting this because I've seen a lot of people peg him as a Bills target in the 2nd round, although I never thought he would make it to our pick. With this news it's possible he falls down the board.

One thing I'll say about Beane is that I think he has learned from his mistakes, although it took him too long in some cases. Failing to sign DeAndre Hopkins last offseason is arguably his worst mistake yet, but this year he signed Curtis Samuel and is almost certain to draft a WR with his first pick so at least he is trying to rectify his mistake. This offseason probably has been his best yet, cutting overpriced players that repeatedly fail in the playoffs, finally making a real investment at WR, going cheap with defensive line depth instead of inexplicably overpaying backup players, and managing to secure more draft value for Diggs than other highly paid veteran WRs are getting these days. He still has to manage the draft well but he's made some very shrewd moves this offseason. He also is genuinely a great executive and presents well for the organization. I compare that to McDermott who I think has learned practically nothing over the last few years. I'm confident Beane can build a championship caliber team even if he may not be the very best at what does. McDermott I am not confident can coach a championship caliber team. That's where I'm at with this regime. If Pegula chose to move on from McDermott next year and let Beane choose his replacement I would be good with that.

Mahomes played that badly in a couple games too. He was the main reason they lost to the Broncos and Raiders, and almost lost to the Jets. You have to accept that Allen and Mahomes are never going to be as consistent as Brady was. But when they're at the top of their game they're better than anyone that's ever done it. A lot of Bills fans have, well, Bills fan syndrome where they only watch every snap that our guy takes and only highlights of the other guy. That skews perceptions. But on the whole Allen and Mahomes have been pretty much equivalent QBs since 2021 in terms of their actual play on the field. I don't know what Allen's workout regiment looks like. He started the season with bad games in 2021 and 2023, but started with excellent games in 2020 and 2022. There's no pattern to discern. All I know is a QB doesn't produce like he has without seriously working at it. And his play undoubtedly has been Super Bowl caliber. It's now a matter of the rest of the team catching up to him.

I wonder which team is putting out this lukewarm attempt at a character assassination to make Nabers fall. Maybe the same team that unearthed Allen's old tweets from when he was 15 🤔

I could make peace with trading away next year's 1st knowing that we will likely have a high 2nd rounder by way of Minnesota/Houston, but giving away this year's 2nd is a bridge too far IMO. Having just one pick in the top 125 of a good draft class would be disappointing. And I love Nabers, he's my favorite Bills fit in the class, I just don't think we can afford to give away so many resources considering we just jettisoned a bunch of starters. Draft two WRs in the top 50 and there is still a good chance one of them becomes a superstar, and we can easily pull that off if we maneuver around the board. One option I've considered for a trade up (but I don't think Beane would) is using Spencer Brown like we used Cordy Glenn in 2018. He's entering a contract year and personally I think he will price himself out of Buffalo - when you have a franchise QB contract you can't pay a RT top of the market money. Getting good draft value back for him one year before he walks in FA would make sense. The Steelers would make sense for that idea. They probably want to move Broderick Jones to LT. Going from #28 to #20 in exchange for Spencer Brown would be the equivalent of getting pick #77 for him which I think is fair. Maybe we can also finagle a pick swap as part of the deal, their #98 for our #128. In that scenario the total trade value would be equivalent to us getting pick #65 for Spencer Brown. For a young RT on the rise that feels like the right value. If we are at pick #20 we could trade up to #6 with the Giants without giving away exorbitant draft capital. Probably our 1st next year with maybe our newly obtained 3rd this year. I think 4 QBs will end up coming off the board before any other position, so at #6 we would have 2 to choose from out of Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze. We'd still have our 2nd rounder and 7 picks on day three. Heading into 2025 we'd have no 1st but two 2nds, a typical complement of picks after that, and some comp picks coming too. I talked myself into this. At the expense of a starting RT and a future 1st rounder we could come away with an elite WR1.

It makes me more confident that the Bills should use a 2025 2nd to trade up into the 40s. I really think coming away with two highly drafted WRs that can play outside is a requirement out of this draft. We have two starting spots open. It makes sense to use the draft value we got back from the Diggs trade to find his replacement.

Fiske already turned 24 in January. Jenkins will be turning 23 in October. I vote Jenkins because I think he's the higher upside player. He made Bruce Feldman's freak list. He's a bit undersized but not as undersized as Fiske.