GoBills808

yes, i believe tendencies like success rate are stable or reasonably stable but something like fumble recovery data for example...we were incredibly lucky last season recovering our own fumbles. and there's zero positive correlation between a team's ability to do that from year to year. so we will regress there. along w the other unlikely to be duplicated rates i mentioned earlier

i think it's just under myself if we grant them both an 18% target share of 520 attempts (which is imo a little too high for Coleman who should be behind both Kincaid and Shakir w Samuel/Palmer likely eating into that figure as well), at their respective catch rates (50% and 70%) they end up at 113 between them

no the simplistic take is '2024 points scored=efficient offense' ^y -->2025-'26 or 'high level functioning of many offensive aspects' which is just words. that is the reduction what i am saying is you need to look at 2024points scored*(negative play rate+turnover variance)/yards gained and ask yourself how likely that rate is to be duplicated or even approached in successive seasons...the answer is not very yards and yardage differentials are more predictive than points because they're relatively stable

Ok I thought it was an ankle or something

It was the Brazil game wk1 Surface was questionable, hurt his foot or toe or something

My point is it's unusual to score that many point while gaining the yardage we did last season And that the reason for that was a confluence of best in league history negative play rate from the QB spot on top of the fewest turnovers from a team, ever So the people saying 'oh we'll just do that again!' probably don't realize what they're saying

odd pairing meaning it's statistically unlikely that the rate at which we scored/yards gained will be duplicated relied heavily on having a never before seen in the NFL negative play rate

he was playing injured in 2024

Yes this is the issue Separation is more about suddenness at the top of your route/ contact point w DB than just running away from your man to my eye Coleman lacks the ability...just doesn't move violently enough

I want to think of him the way I thought about say Devante Parker Solid wideout w upside

for sure those were some of the best wideouts of all time but for current DEs im only really calling Garrett 'generational' dont get me wrong- parsons is a great player. but the hyperbole around this trade...not feeling it personally

But of those guys Moss is clearly the best right Parsons I don't consider clearly the best And actually tbh I'm ok calling Calvin Johnson and TO generational talents Throw Julio in there too But they are/were better than Micah Parsons imo

i have no idea

i guess so we calling myles garrett and tj watt and danielle hunter and what maybe maxx crosby generational talents too? thats a lot of generational talents at the same position in one generation imo

'generational talent?' you think micah parsons is a generational talent?