mjd1001

Lets see, if I remeember correctly about 25-30 years ago when I was still in school we played Front page sports football on the computer.... -Players had 12-15 or so rating each, and they all seemed to actually mean something in terms of play on the field. -you could design custom playbooks -WITH custom plays. Every single player on the field you could give complicated logic, literally draw their routes/paths/zones pixel by pixel ANY formation that was legal in the NFL you could do. -Custom team names if you want, custom uniforms if you want. -make your own schedules (with a mod) -With a few small tweaks to ratings, get a realistic result (the best QB would PLAY like the best QB, the best CB would actually PLAY like the best CB) -so much customization. Play league games out of order if needed. Adjust not only playbooks, but coaching profiles to get cpu controlled teams to run/pass more or less, blitz more or less, even lean toward certain plays in certain situations. Sure, the graphics were bad compared to now...but all those things...I remember thinking to myself...just how good will NFL games be in 10 or 20 years from now, they should be perfect! Almost 30 years later, I've given up on Madden. Sure it looks a LOT better, but almost 30 years later I'm still waiting for an NFL game that matches what that did years ago.

If you want to be a successful investor...anything beyond a long term buy and hold investor....well, you need luck. But beyond that....I think it might be more important to know human psychology and sociology that it is to know a ton about economics. It seems the short term to medium term market and economic moves are dictated more by what 'the masses' think at the moment (even if they are wrong) and what their actions lead to. Supposedly the brightest, smartest, and best among us are at best doing 50-50% on being correct about their calls. Sure, just by chance there is going to be someone who is right 8 out of 10 times (just like if you get a few hundred people in a room and have them flip a coin 10 times, by chance there will be some who guess it right 8 out of 10 times.....doesn't mean they are better at guessing, just simple chance when dealing with large numbers). But, the federal reserve, their 'dot plots' are wrong most of the time when looking out more than 12 months. The biggest wall street firms are frequently adjusting their targets for indices. There are occasional reports of company insiders buying stock in their own company less than a year before it tanks. Its a guessing game. Again, if you want to 'outguess' the markets in the short/medium term, don't focus on breaking down the data so much as focus on figuring out what the masses are doing, and more importantly, find that spot to be 'contrarian' to them.

The point I originally made is there are a lot of factors (not all)) but a lot that are very close to 2007. Price action on the markets. Interest rates. Treasury yields. A lot more as we mentioned above. In terms of levels of the indices, as more and more people begin to notice them, they may/will follow those trends. The Algos almost CERTAINLY will, and it can become a self reinforcing thing. There are underlying economic factors (commercial real estate, levels businesses have to refinance at upcoming)...not to mention very few people know of fraud until AFTER the fact (and indeed often time other market factors are needed to uncover that fraud that is likely happening at some level all the time.) I'm just saying a trend is there. Markets rising through the year, a blip down in the spring, all time highs in the summer, a correction in mid-to-late summer. Its all happened. Now lets see if it continues. That would mean this correction ends soon, markets to back to all time highs....level off through the rest of the year before starting a larger correction. I'm not predicting it, just saying there are some (not all) but many factors that are showing that.

When you consider corporate debt that is going to be restructured at a higher rate in the next 3-6 months, a large portion of that commercial real estate....add in losses that are either 'kept off the books' (fraud) from billions of dollars of commercial real estate that has been marked down considerably already (with more likely to come), and the total dollars you are talking might not be that far off from what happened 17 years ago. Also, maybe the collateral damage won't be as deep this time, but we are staring from a 'higher level' in terms of the markets. In August of 2007, the PE of the sp500 was 18.02. August 1 of this year its at 27.5. Over the past decade its been in the 20-24 range. That is using the same metric...the numbers may be different depending on whether you use 'forward pe' or 'current pe' or month to month or quarter to quarter earnings.. But, PE's were in the 20-24 range when the 10 year yield AND the fed funds rate was at all time lows for most of the past decade. The interest rates are closer now (both 10, 30 year and fed funds) to what they were in 2007, and to equal the market PE back then, BEFORE the fall even happened, you would need a 30% drop. Again, this is no guarantee a huge drop will happen, but there are signs, there is data, legit data, that is pointing to that possibly happening more and more every month.

Normally yes, but if the economy is slowing SO much more than people think, maybe not? I'm not saying its true, but maybe its like the tide. When the economy was getting stronger, it was like the tide was coming in. Right now we might be at the point where the tide is just starting, SLOWLY, to go back out. That is going to accelerate (how fast it goes out, equating it to the economy slowing). The fed giving a single interest rate cut will be like someone with a fire hose spraying water on the beach, its might be so small at this point compared to the volume of water leaving the beach with the tide going out.

Well, these numbers fit the mold of history 'echoing' or 'rhyming' with 2007 a bit. Another inflation report will be critical, but the jobs report, the 10 year action, pretty much cements a rate cut in September and ANY 'worsening' of the numbers could put 50 points on the table...which, again, would 'rhyme' with 2007 in a way few expected just a couple weeks ago. When you look at the 10 year yield in 2007, it started dropping quickly month before the ultimate stock sell-off, and unemployment started ticking up months ahead also, just like now.

But do you have commercial real estate failing (or taking massive hits in value) at a much greater rate than then, with many more loans set to reset in the next 2-12 months at much higher rates (commercial real estate loans are often not like home mortgages, they are usually closer to 5 year resets that roll over rather than 30 years-to-completion). Also, while the housing market isn't likely to get flooded with foreclosures and bad loans like it did in 2007-2008, there is a huge amount of inventory that is unsold out there in certain areas. The news keeps on saying 'housing shortage, housing shortage'...maybe a housing shortage in super low end cheap houses in some areas, but its becoming the opposite issue elsewhere. We still own and rent a home in Florida, and near Port. St. Lucie and in some areas within an hour of Tampa, there are HUGE housing communities where builders are building and building homes with dozens of unsold built (or partially built) homes that are no longer moving. I have read there are some same issues near Austin, TX and Tennessee....and a younger relative of ours just bought and sold a house north of Dallas where they told us 2 years ago when they bought they were building houses 6-8 at a time in their community, they just moved out after selling and nothing has sold for the last month they were there. Again, history isn't repeating, but it may be 'echoing' as the saying goes.

Not so much politics, but economics... Anyone noticing how similar the sp500 chart is in 2024 to 2007? -Early to mid 2007 many articles were written (you can still look them up) that the economy was great, recessions risks overblown. Early to mid 2024, same thing. -SP500 went up quite a bit early in the year, faltered slightly in the spring, before reaching all time highs in July. 2024, same thing. -During July/August earnings in 2007, a few subtle signs of slowing in earnings emerged, caused market to falter a tiny bit through Early August, but most 'economists' said nothing to worry about. 2024, same thing. -10 year treasury yields peaked in June 2007, starting to fall after that by quite a bit, especially through July/August. This year in 2024 they peaked in April/May, but held at a level close to that and are starting to fall quite a bit at the end of July going into August. -By summer of 2007, It started to look like Fed was going to cut rates in September. It turned out they cut rates more than expected in September (1/2 point). 2024, looking like rates will be cut in September, will we get a surprise 1/2 point cut? -The rest of the story in 2007 was markets rallied off the September rate cut for a bit back to the highs, before faltering at the end of the year, and the bottom dropping out early the following year. Will that be the same story in 2024? It's Eerily similar so far. Certainly we don't have the exact same conditions now as then. This is an election year. We don't have a huge number of houses that are going to have mortgages reset at higher rates like we did back then (but commercial real estate maybe?) Lots of govt spending still sloshing around now. They say history doesn't repeat, but it echoes....I'm just wondering how big of an echo we may have in the next 6-12 months.

Its crazy that Bills fans think this is a bad thing for the Dolphins. -or- Its an overpay and IS a bad thing for the Dolphins. I think the truth is someplace in between. 1.) Yes, it is an overpay. Yes, you are paying more for what you are getting compared to what you get per dollar for Josh Allen, Burrow, Mahomes. Yes, in the long run while under this deal the Dolphins may not have enough money to surround with with enough talent to get 'over the top'. I think he is a good-to-very good QB but not worth 'elite' money. 2.) you want to keep him, he is demanding 'elite' money. The Dolphins will be a better team for having him, under this deal, than letting him walk and trying to fill out the team with a lesser QB but spending money in other spots. So, if EVERYTHING falls the right way, they get that season where everything for them falls into place and their top competitors have unexpected problems, the Dolphins CAN make the Superbowl. Would I bet on it? No, but he is good enough to give you that lottery ticket. My opinion is though that likely he keeps them competitive enough to be 'good', but the money per season for him prevents them from being the elite team in the conference over the next 4 years. Best case scenario for Bills fans would be the team lets him walk away. Worst case scenario for Bills fans is he re-signs a deal for about $30m-35m per year(which I personally think is fair based on what I have seen of him) This, what actually happened, this is someplace in the middle.

As others have said...its a combo of 1.) he's become a PITA, 2.) he has either declining skills or has a declining roll in the offense 3.) Josh really doesn't care to use him all that much. Didn't Brady say today that the offense runs through whoever Josh wants it to run through (or something close to that?) If Josh wanted Diggs here, I'm pretty sure he'd still be here.

You can get busts at WR in the early to mid first round, you can find pretty good guys late in the first round or even the 2nd round or 3rd round historically. If someone presents you with a deal to move up that you can't pass up, then do it to get a higher rated guy. But I don't overpay to move up, or maybe even 'pay up' to market rate. As others have said, you aren't totally devoid of weapons right now. Sure you'd like another one but its not sinking the team. Also, its obvious this year the team is in transition, this year, and likely next year, there is going to be a LOT of opportunity to fill spots on this roster for the next few years. Beane has some misses drafting high, but also has made some good picks in the middle rounds. I want as many 'lottery ticket' middle round picks to see how many of those spots/holes can be filled around the entire roster.

Ideally, I'd like a choice half way between choice #1 and choice #2. I don't know for sure he was a 'cancer' but I do have a feeling he wasn't GOOD for other players other than himself...and personally I'm not a fan of the flashy/big celebration/social media posting players (I'm more comfortable with the 'do your job' and 'act like you've been there before' guys.) I for sure think he is a declining talent.

I'm going to make a general statement here.... Most of the younger guys on WGR (and I like them most of the time better than Schopp and Bulldog) tend to like and support players that are active on social media, ones that can be or have the potential to be more controversial...stuff like that. Yes, they are into analytics and a lot of times have think rationally, but I swear sometimes they will give the benefit of the doubt, or slightly over-rate a player if they are simply a 'name' known around the league, or are someone who is a bit of a diva compared to someone else who just goes to work, plays football and goes home. To each their own, but I prefer the latter. Sure, I'm on the message boards and check Twitter everyday, but I do so for some conversation and news, the posting for the sake of posting by athletes, the 'promoting their brand', just isn't for me. I get it some people like that, but I'd just as much rather not have that on the team I root for, all else being equal.

Guessing here but: 1. You are looking to get the best deal. They were the only ones that offered you something or at least to the level they did. 2. You think Digg is declining. Maybe, MAYBE he doesn't decline that much this year or has a bounce-back season. But you aren't worried that much about this year as this is a re-tooling/get under the cap year for the Bills. Next year (2025) is the year you load back up, and by then, you are SURE Diggs is on the dowside and no longer making the Texans that much better. 3. You think you matchup with Houston well with or without Diggs, but anything you can do to have someone else knock-off the Chiefs or Bengals before you see them in the playoffs is a plus.

Many of us have been saying for over a year now that he lost a step or two and it was noticable. This may not be terrible for Miami, they look like they may have a lot of new pieces and maybe a vet in the secondary will help them back there, but I can't imagine he will be anything other than even a another half step slower than he was here last year.

And more athletic. Are the players that come, will they be better than Poyer and Hyde, for example? Maybe not, but I don't think it'll be a huge drop off. I have heard a lot this offseason about big plays Poyer and Hyde made, even this year. But I have 2 questions when you are dealing with 30+ year old guys in the secondary....They made those plays in the past, but here another year, and another year older, would they be able to make them again? And 2nd, Those are the plays they made...how many plays did they NOT make that someone younger/faster might have had they been in their place?

I am not too interested in this, but I the little of what I have looked into it the less I understand exactly what it is going to be and what it will give me that I don't already have. I've been tuning out of watching sports for years. Ironicially, the one 'major' us sport that gets the least major attention (NHL) is the only one that I am watching more (a little more, but not a lot more). As for the Rest, the Bills are really the only NFL team I watch anymore (I haven't evne watched much of the other playoffs and don't know if/how much I will watch of the superbowl). MLB and NBA I hvaen't watched a full game of in years.

Coaching isn't perfect but its good enough. Personally I wish McDermott would employ more of a m2m defense rather than so much zone..but he is who he is. QB is great, one of the top 5 in the league and on his best day might be the best. You are going to have 'good Josh' days and 'bad Josh' days but on the good days he's basically unstoppable. OL is slightly improved from last year, but that just makes them just average-to-above average. WR's are an issue. For me I truly think Diggs is closer to 'done' than to 'good'. Defense is fine. It would be great to have an Elite pass rusher next year, and I want both safeties to be younger/faster, but WHEN HEALTY they are good enough to win with a Healthy Josh Allen heading the offense. All teams deal with injuries. I truly think this team just had too many key ones on the Defense to get by with. They have the talent, they had 'good enough' coaching. They just did't have enough depth.

I'm ready to move on. Bring in some young guys with more athleticism. Will they be as good mentally at reading the offense? No, but that is a tradeoff you make now.....less $$, more athleticism.

Unless there was a major injury Diggs was hiding, he might not even be that good of a #2 receiver the way he played. Less speration than usual, not as many moves after the catch to get that extra couple of yards....he just looked very 'ehh'. There is real chance that age/workload has caught up to him and he is on a quick slide down in terms of usefulness.

Constant worrying? Its the FIRST thing I said on this forum all week about any problems they may face, anything negative chances they have at all in the playoffs, so look at who you are replying to before you make a comment like that and tell me to 'get off' something. Second, it is a concern. its a regular NFL week? Well we have all seen stats that teams that are on a shorter week by 2 days or more vs teams that are not fair WORSE in the following game.

Really early look at Monday 4:30pm weather....18 degrees at kickoff, wind chill at 6 degrees....still kinda windy 10-15mph, but no where near as bad as tomorrow would be. Chance of light snow (2-3 inches for the whole day in Orchard Park on Monday).

That is one of the first things I thought of.... if it had to be done, it had to be done. But that is going to be a huge competitive disadvantage for the winner. The team that the Bills (or Steelers) will play next week will have 1.5-2 days more to prepare, to rest..etc.

If Kincaid is your #1 going forward, Knox is still a very good #2 TE. Are you overpaying him? Sure, but any cap hit you take isn't going to be worth getting rid of him. Miller and White...yeah, not sure what can be done there but it looks like they are basically going to be non-factors for this team going forward.

If all the NFL teams have to play international games every couple of years, can't Buffalo just stake claim to Canada? Sure most have bad memories of the Toronto series, but Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, ANYWHERE but Europe. I'd volunteer for Canadian games to see if could avoid getting 'drafted' to do Europe.