MAJBobby

Show me where he doesn't get open. and yeah a guy that has many years in the league should be better than a Raw Rookie in a year, but guess what EBRON was no BETTER than Knox this year

***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them). Hope you enjoy the read. Special Teams is easy so I knocked out a 3rd one today. Also Tomorrow RB is on the list. And might get to WR. Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 4 players 4.61M Cap ranked 15th in league) Corey Bojorquez (RFA 2021) – Saves 660K against cap if Cut Steven Hauschka (UFA 2022) – Saves 1.8M against the cap if Cut. Reid Ferguson (UFA 2022) – Saves 650K against the cap if Cut Kaare Vedvik (signed futures deal) My Take: First, I am going to start with Corey Bojorquez, I by no means am a punting expert here so I will rely on numbers and some things that I saw. First talk about inconsistent and that seems to be a theme with him. Will get off a nice punt one minute and then shank the next. It is maddening. Second something else I noticed he seems slow to kick the ball, more so than other punters, it is like his process and movements just are slower than most. To the numbers his AVG is 41.9 and a net AVG of 37.7 with a single block and 34 inside the 20. That puts him at 32nd in AVG, 32nd in Net AVG, tied for 2nd in blocks and tied for 3rd in punts inside the 20. While I like the number of punts inside the 20 h also has 7 Touch backs which is tied for the most in the league. I think the Bills have been trying to get better here for a couple years, but I also do not think that they want to break the bank on punter when you look at the level of competition brought in. I do think they likely have made their only move into this position with Kaare Vedvik who as a punter at Marshall had an avg of 44.0. But this is a position that needs to be upgraded. I am not going to talk about Reid Ferguson too much, I am fine with him as LS. Snaps are fine and have good pace back to punter and kicker, don’t see really to many issues here. Other than a good way to make a living if you want to teach your kids how to Long Snap. Next one is tricky because kickers are a weird group and when you have one that is solid but not exceptional you look elsewhere but that could come back to haunt you. Couple things though Hauschka has been trending down the last 2 years but also was good in playoff game and late in the season. Really when Bills put in a claim for Chase McLaughlin, he picked it up. Weird to say I have a feeling sticking with Hauschka over McLaughlin out of camp is going to hurt. But again, just a kicker. Looking at his numbers he is 79% in FG, 94% in XP those put him at 25th in FG% and 24th in XP%. Looking a little further 1-19 yards – No Attempts 20-29 yards – 5/5 100% 30-39 yards – 7/8 88% 40-49 yards – 9/10 90% 50+ - 1/5 20% So we see the issue this year was those long FGs and that also meshes with what seemed like lack of leg on Kick Offs as well. Could he be replaced sure but be careful when looking for kickers they are a fickle group and there was a league wide kicking problem this year. UFAs Possible Kicker Kai Forbath Dan Bailey Mason Crosby Joey Slye – I could see him hitting the market maybe as Graham Gano comes off IR Younghoe Koo Punter: Sam Martin Matt Bosher Britton Colquitt Ryan Allen Lac Edwards Matt Haack (would love it but likely gets tendered as an RFA and not going to give a punter a qualifying offer I don’t think). Draft Punter: Michael Turk (AZ ST) (46.0 avg 11th in Nation) with 67 punts 53 were 50+ and 36 inside 20 Arryn Siposs (Auburn) (43.8 avg 28th in Nation) 11 punts were 50+ and 16 inside 20 Joseph Charlton (South Carolina) (47.7 avg 3rd in Nation) 27 punts 50+ 28 inside 20 Kicker: Dominik Eberle (Utah State) Rodrigo Blakenship (Gorgia) Logon Justus (Indiana) Final thinking in this Position group for me would be: Take one of our picks after round 5 and draft one of the punters. The reality is once we get passed round 4 I think any player drafted is going to have a hard time seeing the field with the depth that we have built on this team. So, I am looking to upgrade a position that we have been trying to for a while All three of these punters have draftable grades IMO. So, go get one. I really am not going to be comfortable going into camp with Kaare Vedvik and Corey Bojorquez in a punting battle. All kickers in the draft have undraftable grades and without seeing an actual upgrade to Hauschka right now just stay with him. Just know that anything over 50 yards at this point I would seriously consider going for it instead, especially in open air conditions. The Punter needs to be upgraded and be serious about it go draft one in this years draft, that will be better value than getting another CB that ends up on the PS or any position like that.

So you wouldn't want a legit TE on this Roster? you can get playmakers everywhere I don't need size (though I will address WR later) on the outside when I have legit matchup nightmares at TE How many years has this board worried about how to cover Gronk? How many team worry every time they play KC and San Fran over Kittle and Kelce. We get a legit threat at TE the current WR group gets better too. So with ONE signing of Hooper you get an upgrade at TE and WR (and you didn't even touch that position yet) In terms of Skill I like Hunter Henry more than Hooper. In terms of Health History that is the only reason I have Henry as plan B. But like the Bills did with Morse, maybe they TGT and try and sign Henry first as others fighting over Hooper

Bet he goes to Cincy on the Tag

Not on the OL yet

I think you are about right with Milano at 8M AVV right now. I don't think you are with Shaq. He is going to get 10M AVV on open market Does it really matter is he gets open if he drops (5 this year) it or cant catch it Knox had 6 drops and a 56% Catch Rate Ebron had 5 drops and a 59.6% catch rate Knox = Ebron just younger and cheaper

Other things that limit YAC is sideline throws, and throws to WRs facing the LOS. We throw a lot of BOTH

Except he has close to the same catch % as Dawson Knox. Career 59.96% Knox 56.0%

Also led the league in Touch Backs NOT good and was the worst in the league in Net AVG with under 40 ALSO not good.

yep.

Everyone. TE, WR and RBs

he has made himself a punter. Turned down kicker workouts (NE) to so let focus on punting. Which was very smart by him at this point in his career.

May take you up on that. I always try to get to the MIA game as one of my 10-12 I hit. Always depends on work. I could see that too. Because Knox already makes Kroft expendable if they sign into the position with Hooper or Henry. Smith is a deferent skill set so I could see them taking him to camp to see if Sweeney can make him expendable

no Prob. Gonna try and do Two Groups a day as I go through my notes no promises though.

And I won’t mind that either if they are cut immediately after Hooper is signed. We don’t have cap issues no reason to do it now until Hooper or Henry are already here.

yeah Hard to do UFAs now. But one Franchise Tags are applied I tend to just do a post highlighting strictly UFA at that point. this is more of an early exercise for me looking at organizational depth on Bills and Depth in UFA classes at each group knowing some will go away and some more will get added. Just a snap shot in time. And for the first time in about 2 decades I haven’t started offseason stuff until January. Normally I am already well into offseason mode by November looking at needs and organizational depth etc.

I have a sneaking suspicion that when I get to WRs later that is going to be what I recommend

Anything that Brings Competition to that Group. Haush got better after Bills tried to Claim their old kicker and Bojo has been Blah. Both stand to be upgraded. I think I read somewhere he gave up Kicking as well just to focus on Punting. yeah I knew I read it. He declined a workout offer from Pats to focus on punting. https://www.google.com/amp/s/profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/10/02/kaare-vedvik-declines-patriots-workout-offer-to-concentrate-on-punting/amp/

And with that he improved his numbers by: 6.0% completion %, 1015 yards (granted played 3 more games), 10 more passing TDs, 3 less INTs, 21.6 rating, and 0.2 in ypa. I would love to see another similar jump in numbers at the end of next year. If he can do that the final numbers (passing only) would look like. 64.8%, 4104 yards, 30 TDs, 6 INT, 6.9 ypa with a 95.3 rating - those are TOP END QB Numbers.

I think this directly clashes with the HC mindset on the situation discussed.

yeah only reason I don’t like doing these things now because teams can always get under cap. But at least what is shows is the UFA Depth at the specific position relative to what is already on the roster. that is why I see this position group as thin because there really are only 2 (Henry and Hooper) that can be seen as immediate upgrades. The others seem to just be shuffling names. For example at this point I do not see an old Eifert coming in and pushing Knox down to TE2. Only two I see doing that are Hooper and Henry that is my thinking in these not so much how to improve the bottom of the position group because that is easy. But what is needed to put players where I see them as their best spot and right now that is Knox as TE2. So I have to get better than him.

That very well could happen if Hooper or Henry dont hit the market. Not sure I can definitely point to any of those UFA TEs outside those two would upgrade the room. If they don’t go UFA route I could easily see another TE taken in draft. weapons are weapons. They don’t have to be outside at WR. I think with a reliable TE in thei group like a Hooper and people wouldn’t be screaming for that Big Physical WR. additionally more evidence on the importance of this group. look at Tom Brady when he lost his TEs Look at the current group of young QBs. Seems the ones that have made strides have a legit TE on their roster. Mahomes - Kelce Jimmy G - Kittle Wentz - Ertz and Goedart Lamar - Andrews and Hurst Baker - Better with Njoku on the field Darnold - Started looking for with Griffin after missing his TE all season.

yep that would occur maybe around camp after trying to shop them and make sure all others a healthy

***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them). Hope you enjoy the read. Did TE early for @RyanC883 Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 5 players 11.120M Cap ranked 10th in league) Tyler Kroft (UFA 2022) – Saves 4.812M against cap if Cut Lee Smith (UFA 2022) – Saves 2.25M against the cap if Cut. Dawson Knox (UFA 2023) Tommy Sweeny (UFA 2023) Nate Becker (signed futures deal) My Take: First, I would want more production out of this group that is 10th in the league in terms of Cap Commitment. A heck of a lot more when the position group accounted for only: 46 rec, 604 yards 13.13 avg, 4 TDs. Those numbers as a group would rank them as the 13th best TE in Rec, 11th best in yards, 20th in AVG, tied for 14th in TDs. This position group is on the verge of being great IMO. Also, there are to very easy cap savings moves if you go and get more. I do think more is needed and if the Bills choose to do that, we will have one of the best TE room in the league and could be argued would be even better than Baltimore. I will get to those move(s) later. But First let m address the current Situation at this group. Dawson Knox for a rookie did well, however a major issue that you cannot have with your TE is the drops. H was tied for 4th in the league with 6 drops. Add that into his 56.0% (28 rec 50 tgts) catch rate and you have a lot of drive killers, when your TE should be reliable for your QB. What was interesting is when I looked at his numbers compared to other TEs and what sticks out to me is that he has respectable numbers for a NO 2 TE. Ranked 36 in receptions, 23rd in Yards, 15th in AVG, 15th in 20+ catches and has a 53.6% 1st down rate. Everyone knew he was raw coming out of School, and it showed. I don’t think the plan ever was to have him start at TE, the INJ to Kroft solidified that this season and he struggled. However, if he can fix the Drops and the Catch % I think there is something here. The rest of the group I don’t really have much to talk about here except with Sweeney, in the limited opportunities he has had he has performed and that is a good thing. I look at him as a younger better option than both Smith and Kroft. So, I would improve this position with 2 (likely one Draft and 1 UFA). You can easily walk away from Lee Smith and Kroft for savings and improve the position group at the same time, now before I get into that, because there is no immediate cap need, these two stays on the Roster until that improvement is on the team. UFAs Possible Tier 1: Hunter Henry (likely a 9.5M AVV) Austin Hooper (likely a 10.5M AVV) Tier 2: Tyler Eifert Jacob Hollister Eric Ebron Possible Trade Market Greg Olsen OJ Howard Draft Tier 1: Brysen Hopkins (Purdue) Hunter Bryant (Washington) Albert Okwuegbunam (Missouri) Cole Kmet (ND) Tier 2: Jared Pinkney (Vanderbilt) Colby Parkinson (Stanford) Cheyenne O’Grady (Arkansas) Tier 3: Harrison Bryant (FAU) Josiah Deguara (Cincy) Mitchell Wilcox (South FL) Final thinking in this Position group for me would be: Sign Austin Hooper (25 yrs old). 5 years 50M with 33 guaranteed, AVV 10M per. That brings another 75 receptions and 6 TDs. Gives Bills a legit game breaking TE at the TE1 and puts Knox in the TE2 role which would be perfect. I also would go get Okwugbunam in the draft (likely a 4th rounder or later for a developmental athletic freak). After signing Hooper (back up plan would be Henry) I would release (don’t think I would find a pick for him) Kroft. Another thing about Hooper is he would put the Veteran in the room that McD and Beane love so much, just one that can really play. I also have Sweeney take over for Smith and cut Smith as well. (Both Kroft and Smith might be post camp cuts as no immediate need for the cap space). That would put the TE room going into camp something like this: Austin Hooper Dawson Knox Tommy Sweeney Albert Okwubunam Tyler Kroft Lee Smith Nate Becker Now getting Hooper or Henry likely means no drafted player in the position and I am OK with that as well, just showing the TE I would like out of this class. But I would rather spend my 10M a year with Hooper or Henry over spending it in WR. I was OK with this group this season, they underperformed IMO based on the Cap Space allocated to it. However there are two young talents that can grow, now go get a legit TE to add to this group and give Allen a reliable TE.