MAJBobby

Sorry was going to have this out yesterday but wifey had a long honey do list. Happy wife happy life. ***Disclaimer*** I will not put all Names not on the Bills in this thread as it would get to long, I will keep it to a couple names in each tier (as I see them). Will wrap of on offense with WR later today or maybe tomorrow and then on to the Defense next week. If you have a position group you want me to start with on Defense let me know. Hope you enjoy the read. Past Writeups Quarterback Running Backs Tight Ends Specialists Currently on Roster: (Positional Spending 9 players 28.981M Cap (ranked 23rd in league) Mitch Morse (UFA 2023) – Saves 1.375M against cap if Cut Ty Nsekhe (UFA 2021) – Saves 3.7M against cap if Cut Jon Feliciano (UFA 2021) – Saves 3M against cap if Cut Dion Dawkins (UFA 2021) – Saves 1.072M against cap if Cut Cody Ford (UFA 2023) Ike Boettger (RFA 2021) – Saves 660K against cap if Cut Ryan Bates (RFA 2022) – Saves 585K against cap if Cut Victor Salako (signed futures deal) Expiring Contracts LaAdrian Waddle (29 yrs old) (2.0M AVV) Quinton Spain (29 yrs old) (2.050M AVV) Spencer Long (Club Option 2021) (UFA 2022) – Saves 3.425M against cap if Club Option denied. (technically he will be here as he is not on Contract until the Bills decide on the Club Option.) Also a trade option out before and after picking up the club option. My Take: Numbers from the group as a Hole: Pass Protection Ranked 23rd with 40 sacks and a 7.8% Adjusted Sack Rate Adjusted Run yards ranked 16th Power Success Rate - 58% ranked 25th Stuffed Rate - 22% ranked 28th To break it down a little further running stats per location: Left Outside - 3.67 YPA - NFL AVG 4.09 ypa (21st Rank) (4% of the carries, NFL AVG 11%) - WR Blocking and TE blocking on this side was not good Left Tackle - 5.48 YPA - NFL AVG 4.25 ypa (10th Rank) (13% of the carries, NFL AVG 12%) Middle (over the OGs) - 4.37 YPA - 4.54 YPA NFL AVG (12th Rank) (64% of carries, NFL AVG 56%) Right Tackle 2.95 YPA - NFL AVG 4.20 ypa (29th Ranked) (14% of carries, NFL AVG 12%) - MAJOR ISSUS WITH RT run blocking Right Outside 6.13 YPA - NFL AVG 4.40 ypa (1st Rank) (4% of carries, NFL AVG 9%) - WR Blocking and TE blocking on this side was great First, I will address the expiring contracts. I think the club option on Long is the thing I am going to be watching for a couple reasons. 1. I think Feliciano has not only taken the OG from him but really seems like he has solidified the BU C spot as well. When Morse went down Feliciano is the one that took that Center Spot and Long came in at the OG spot if I remember correctly. What the Bills do with this option is going to foreshadow what they are thinking with Ford IMO. Pick the option up the plan is for Ford to stay out at RT. Decline the Option and I think that means Ford kicks inside. However, It also could all hinge on the OTHER expiring contract as well, Spain. If Spain gets re-signed option could be declined, if Spain hits the market the option will be picked up IMO. With all that, I am fine with the Bills decision either way on this club option. Now let’s get to Spain, he played 99% of the snaps, and did not allow a sack (impressive when you look at the defenses that we played). To be honest I could also say was the most impactful of the offseason signings last year. He was also very solid in run game and very powerful. The Other thing that came out recently is Spain helped during the games setting protection with Morse. Those two are on the same Page, and Dawkins got back to form like he did when he had another top on LG playing next to him in Incognito. I know Allen is pretty much automatic on Sneaks however ask Houston they are not give me plays you must be Powerful at OG to run them. Center holds ground and OGs get push and those seams open. Out of all the Bills UFAs this year I think Spain is my critical re-sign, however he is not going to come cheap. Rodger Saffold and Billy Turner last year are going to be my Comparable. So, I could see something like a 4-year 42M with 20gtd (10.5 AVV) will be what it will cost to re-sign him. Now he won’t be the best OG on the market (that belongs to Scherff) so that helps as well. The biggest hole IMO on this line is at RT. I know Ford is a Rookie I get that, but I also know I he didn’t answer my question of is he a RT or is he a OG. I know that OL are taking longer and longer to develop in the NFL as well, so I really don’t want to address the position if I can avoid it in the Draft and be in the same spot we are with Ford right now. The window is open So I would like to buy a RT to make sure that position is fixed with Nsehke (who at this point SHOULD be a Swing OT), Ford and UFA. If the RT can get better, I think we are on the way to having a top end line, I am not concerned at all with LT, LG (if Spain re-signed) Center or RG. But as I said earlier, the Spain Contract will point to me where they are going with the OL. They Could Easily let Spain walk, move Feliciano to LG, Ford to RG and buy an UFA for RT. Right now, I think we have a top 15 OL easily, and could be a top 10 or higher by addressing the RT spot. Of the lower guys (Boettger, Bates, Salako) the only one that has shown me enough to really be thought about in 2020 is Bates. Beane and McD did a good job making the OL respectable last off- season, now I think they take respectable and turn it into top end this offseason. My mindset this off-season would be Re-sign Spain, Upgrade RT and then draft into the position group with some late round depth, and UDFA developmental guys. Possible Trade: (based on Deadline rumors) Trent Williams UFAs Possible Tier 1 Brandon Schreff (OG) Quinton Spain (OG) Joe Thurney (OG) Rob Leary (OG) (Club Option) Jack Conklin (RT) Daryl Williams (RT) Tier 2 Andrus Peat (OG) Joe Haeg (OG) Xavier Su’a-Filo (OG) Brian Bulaga (RT) Marcus Gilbert (RT) Germain Ifedi (RT) Draft Tier 1 (1st and 2nd round grades) Austin Jackson (OT) (USC) Andrew Thomas (OT) (Georgia) Tristan Wirfs (OT) (Iowa) Jedrick Wills (OT) (Alabama) Trey Adams (OT) (Washington) Prince Tega Wanogho (OT) (Auburn) Isaiah Wilson (OT) (Georgia) Josh Jones (OT) (Houston) Tier 2 (3rd-5th round) Logan Stenberg (OG) (Kentucky) Hakeem Adeniji (OG) (Kansas) – Also a Tier OT Prospect Netane Muti (OG) (Fresno St) Mekhi Becton (OT) (Louisville) Lucas Niang (OT) (TCU) Clavin Throckmorton (OT) (Oregon) Tier 3 (6th – Priority UFA) Deonte Brown (OG) (Alabama) Kevin Jarvis (OG) (Michigan State) Jonah Jackson (OG) (Ohio State) John Simpson (OG) (Clemson) Ben Cleveland (OG) (Georgia) Damien Lewis (OG) (LSU) Micheal Onwenu (OG) (Michigan) John Molchon (OG) (Boise State) Simon Stepaniak (OG) (Indiana) Yasir Durant (OT) (Missouri) Terence Steele (OT) (Texas Tech) Saahdiq Charles (OT) LSU Ezra Cleveland (OT) (Boise ST) Robert Hunt (OT) (Louisiana-Lafayette) Ben Bartch (OT) (St. Johns) Matt Peart (OT) (UCONN) Final thinking in this Position group for me would be: I would like to really turn this OL into a top group, so I am going to spend some money in this position again this UFA Period. In-line with Paying our own and keeping this team together I start with Spain and a 4-year 42M, 20GTD, 10.5 AVV (an out after year two of this contract). I then cross my fingers through the tag season and go sign Jack Conklin 6-year 91M, 50M GTD, 15.1 AVV (an out after year 4). Another UFA Option that would be an Upgrade and Cheaper at RT is Daryl Williams. I let Waddle walk and if I cannot trade him before the option is due, I do not pick up Spencer Longs Club Option (won’t need to after re-signing Spain). By Doing that that puts this OL group looking like this going into the draft where I could use some of my late round picks (2 - 5ths and 3 – 6ths) to grab some more organizational depth, and development LT – Dawkins LG – Spain C – Morse RG – Feliciano RT – Conklin Depth: Nsehke Ford Bates Boettger Salako The organizational depth here is pretty solid, especially after re-signing Spain. I then can focus on adding talent and turning it into an OL that will be talked about as one of the Best. I don’t want to suffer with another Rookie RT, So I fix this position in UFA, and then put this team into a position to start getting later round talents and developing which will leave options a couple years down the road when players are aged as well as looking for new contracts.

I would like Drake and the reason I think I would break my budget a bit on him in terms of signing is he also returns kicks. So you have your BU RB and possibly can replace Roberts as well.

down here Howard is the one ALWAYS talked about for trades. I guess everyone with power in Tampa love a Brate that is why I left him off. But I agree either one would be nice for us.

I will say according to a majority of WGR callers we need to get a starting QB.

Young and Espensa

my grades on them are 2nd round talents.

Yeah BB would never lie.

now if all the offensive weapons are gone I would like a trade back and get value

One of 2 DEs that have a first round grade IMO.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/report-patriots-owner-kraft-forced-belichick-trade-garoppolo%3famp

I get that. But I look at value. So was trying to show the guys that want to draft a DE that the value isn’t there

Those are the TIer two that would be in the Dollar Range I believe. Hence my disclaimer. If I added everyone all the names would make the post way to long

Sure believe that if you will

no prob. now if you trade back (get extra picks) then take one that would make up for the overdraft a bit because of the extra pick(s) acquired in the trade back.

I wouldn’t be opposed to 2 later picks at RB and clean house in the room except for the three youngsters. I just am not thinking that is realistic with the mindset of Beane and McD. I would like it though. Specially if one of Dillon or Akers play ST.

Follow the conversation. I mentioned the over drafting to two specific players that are not graded IMO as first round talents. and are being artificially propped up by a weak DE class at the top.

would be taking prospects a round too high be overdrafting? You are missing the point here. There are two DEs that have first round grades IMO. That’s it.

Color me not worried to hire another DL coach.

I don’t think Value oriented Beane will overdraft in a position that isn’t on the field all the time. We were in nickel a TON this season meaning Alexander was on the Bench. Get an AJ Klein at LBer and solved.

knox and Hooper or Knox and Henry are a Major upgrade over Knox and Kroft or Knox and Smith. young QBs best friend legit talent at TE. also the TE also helps the WRs. How does on cover a Hooper, Knox, Brown and Beasley with Singletary as lone back. do they do nickel (Matchup issues all over) but I get your point. Don’t wanna turn it into a TE vs RB thread.

Yeah not sure what my phone posted there. Meant to say So McD overdrafts DEs. Only two DEs with first round grades Are Young and Esperanza. The rest are bumper because of lack of talent at the position. Don’t overdraft.

10 plus wins, Division and playoff wins. Anything ELSE IN YEAR 4 of this regime is a failure

Would need to see contract. Like him. Seems oft injured so might fit in my budget for a UFA RB. 5M AVV is MAX I go. again I also know I place LOW value on this position. I won’t spend on a back and I won’t draft a back in rounds 1 or 2. Ever

Msp you over draft DEs? Only reason either are mentioned as first round talent is because there isn’t any. Only 2 Edge have 1st round grades IMO Young and Esperanza

And like Zeke and Gurley will be immediately overpaid the minute it is signed. no. And wouldn’t want that. I think a top end TE like Hooper or Henry would be smarter use of the money. And helps the offense as a whole A lot More than a RB