MAJBobby

Value isnt there. I can find a RB anywhere in this draft. And I am NOT changing the offensive philosophy with building the OL to grind and run my offense will remain a pass first offense and with that I value every other position on the football field over a RB. Well not P or K they are lower than RB.

In the 2nd not in the first

Harris is a 2nd round grade on my Board.

The thing is though those LBers are becoming less and less in the NFL. KC exposed the soft zone we played and we never adjusted that is the problem, Want to play that soft Zone, need a disruptive DL, That really is the problem in Buffalo is the DL., no premier pass rusher on either side, no base end to set the edge (looks how often we are gashed with outside runs), no 1 Tech to keep your MIKE clean. I dont think our LBer group is an issue with or without Milano.

Yep I think the major changes are on DL and then adding youth via draft. I actually went into the Secondary thinking I was moving on from Hyde. Because like I said something with this season made me think his play dropped. But by looking at numbers he is right on par with where he has been so I was a little surprised when I was done there was no changes at the Safety spot. I do think the Biggest issue with this defense is the DL play. making changes now. Josh Thomas was a stud at APP St. Small school guy that likely really got hurt with no real offseason. Was one of the first UDFAs signed (if not the first) after the draft. Needs to grow up a bit as the step up in talent, but interested to see him in a regular type offseason (if we get one this year)

I hear you. And I am too. Though I must say writing these helped because as bad as Sunday was writing these shows me we are finally in a good place. Gotta get them done as I do a lot in offseason with Draft and such as well. Plus work has decided to send me to Jordan for a couple weeks right before UFA starts. So had to dig into them. Trying to get them done actually before SB so I can really start digging into draft.

I don’t agree one bit. And I really don’t agree he has failed.

I have heard that. I played with a safety that would take a little bit and boom up the nose. I never tried it though.

I always hit the smelling salts on sidelines when I played. I see Aaron Rodgers, Ben and actually a good amount of other QBs do it as well.

Yep you got my thinking off him on my initial look in the college board. Senior Bowl is going to be huge for him.

My Bad. Fixed. Thanks for letting me know guys.

To feel really old I already retired once by the time Josh Allen was drafted

Secondary – I personally do not like the Zone Heavy schemes, but I get that is what we are going to see mostly with the Bills Defense with McD. I will say though our zone scheme is Good, and performed against almost every team fine except KC. So, using McDs statement of “KC is the benchmark” I think we will see a little tweak bringing DBs that are more complete both Man and Zone. We did go through yet another year that is going to lead to a competition at CB2. That position needs to be settled this offseason IMO, and the Rotating at that spot needs to stop. So that is my thinking in terms of where this position group is at. Also, with Hyde and Poyer another year older I think safety is not as settled as it used to be, I will get into why a little later. But multiple Hail Mary’s completed on you in the span of a couple weeks should have people immediately look at the safety play. What I do like about them is there is juice on this team from the Safety and CB spot when it comes to blitzing, I think it is a asset that we do not use enough. Bills UFAs: Josh Norman, 34, CB, 2020 AAV: 6M, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A – 1 INT, 4PD, 1 FF, allowed 65.6% complete against him (right where he has been his entire time in Washington), with an 84 RTG against him. Ok he can walk, yes, he made a couple plays often he didn’t. I get everyone talking about having Veterans are vital, but Tre White is your veteran in the position, eventually as fans we must start looking at our younger players as veterans, as they have been in the scheme since McD got here. We are at a point that if Norman is willing to accept Veteran Minimum, I will be fine with the re-signing, anything over the minimum and he can walk. Dean Marlowe 29, SS, 2020 AAV: 1.55M, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A – 2 INTs, 3 PD, 1.5 Sack, 69.2% completion against and a 105. Rating against. Marlowe stays, solid depth back at safety and cannot go into the season with the unknown of Johnson as your primary Safety Backup. Should come cheap, something like a 2 year 4.5M contract with 2.25M AAV will keep him in Buffalo. It would not make sense to let him walk and create a question mark at Depth unless you are planning to draft the replacement for Hyde / Poyer this year. Quality depth and should be cheap. Levi Wallace 26, CB, 2020 AAV: 750K, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A (RFA) – Former UDFA still has not just taken the CB2 job and made it his. I think the smart move here is put a 2nd round tender on him if he is offersheeted let him walk. If he is isn’t then he is in camp for yet another competition at the CB2 spot. He will be back, likely given the Original Round Tender, I guess they could not tender him and sign him at a lower value as well, but either way I think he will be back if nothing more than just his reputation on Special Teams and will be cheap. 2 INT, 8PD, 57.1% catch against him (65.7% in 2019), Rating though 85.0% which is right about here he has been his time in Buffalo. On Contract CBs: Tre’Davious White, 26 yrs, Cap Hit 14.05M: So, with Tre the numbers on him are 3 INTs, 11 PD, 1 FF, 2 FR, 1.5 Sacks, gave up 4 TDs. The fancy numbers include 56.9% against him (this is where he has been essentially since his time in Buffalo), Rating against 79.9% (this in line with his rookie year) however last year he had this at 43.3% (this drops obviously because he had 6 picks last year and 0 TDs). Rest of his advanced numbers are right in line with where he has been his entire career in Buffalo. Faced 65 targtets this year (73 rookie year and 90 last year). We know he dealt with injury this year as well and I am not sure how much that made him struggle, but those saying Tre got paid and slacked the numbers just do NOT show that. He is the best player on this team and his contract going forward is not bad. I would like to see him in man and following the top WR around a little more, but I do not think that is going to happen. We are fine here, so those that think he regressed come off the ledge. Taron Johnson, 25 yrs, Cap Hit 1.08M, Savings 930K: Yes, I understand everyone loved the 101 pick 6. But it is more than that. 1 INT, 7 PD, 1 FF, 1 sack, 5 TFL. He was Targeted the most in his career. At 79 targets (41, 49 in years past) and still at 68.4% complete and a 91.5 rating, those are right in line with his career despite facing more Targets this year, so I think many can say we know exactly what he is, a very good NB. His run support is amazing, maybe not the best cover nickel that is out in the league, but I would say once of the better run support and blitzing NBs in the league. Our Zone Heavy concepts minimize his short area quickness and stiff hips that plague him in coverage. EJ Gaines, 29 yrs, Cap Hit: 0, Savings 850K: Yes, he is a Bill has been all season as a COVID Opt out. So we do have someone that excelled at CB2 when healthy in the mold before he took off chasing money. IMO, he replaced Norman going forward. Cam Lewis, 24 yrs, Cap Hit 780K, Savings 780K: Didn’t look out of place in 2 games this season, but does have a size issue outside, at only 5-9. I don’t see anything more than a Depth CB here, I know many had high hopes for him, I just don’t see it in his play will be coming off IR. Siran Neal, 27, Cap Hit 991K, Savings 920K – He has value as a Depth CB, and Safety also probably one of our better ST players, I don’t think he is going anywhere, unless they are really in a cap crunch, to me you are not going to be able to replace his ST play and spot play as needed for 920K (space that opens up). 1 PD, 66.7% completed against him on 9 targets with a rating of 80.3. But his value really is in ST where he logs 60% of all special teams’ snaps. I listed him here as that is how Bills list him but more likely a Safety / Big Nickel. Dane Jackson, 24 – Futures – I know there are a lot of Dane Jackson truthers out there, I will say he didn’t look out of place at all when he played and I was calling for him to log more snaps so that is a good thing, means he flashed to m when he played. 1 INT, 5 PD, 1FR, allowed 61.9% on 21 TGTs, and a RTG against 96.2%. I think he will be the first in line to try to secure that CB2 spot in the offseason. The Dane truthers can talk more about his skill set. Duke Thomas, 27 – On PS, I don’t expect anything on him other than Camp Fodder if given a futures contract. Was signed on Bills PS on 1 Jan On Contract S: Jordan Poyer, 30 yrs, Cap Hit 7.875, Savings 5.875 – When looking at the numbers important to note 4.775 becomes fully guaranteed on 5th day of new league year, so if he is still on the roster (fully expect him to be) savings after that point is only 1.1M, just for reference. I think there was something going on with him at the start of the season because for the first 5 weeks or, so I was thinking well we extended the wrong Safety. However, he then came on. Finished with 2 INTs, 5 PD, 2FF, 2 sacks, 124 tackles with 4 QB hits. He gave up a 72.9% rate on 48 targets (both highest number since being a Bill) and had a Rating of 90.0 which was lower than he did last year so that is good. All and all a real Solid Season for him. Will remain, but we really must start looking at some younger replacements at Safety in the future. Micah Hyde, 31, Cap Hit 6.718, Savings 5.1M – Hyde ended the season with 1 INT, 5 PD, 70 Tackles, and a 63.6% on 22 TGTs and a rating of 82.2 when thrown against. For some reason I am not sure when I come away from the season with his play slipping, when the numbers are right in line with where he has been his entire time in Buffalo. But I will say there is something about this years season that had me coming away thinking his play slipped, I guess I have to go back and watch some games again and see why I felt that way. Maybe it has to do with the plays he made have not been special plays like he has made in the season prior and just had a very quietly good season. There is something I must look at, because I fully expected the numbers to match with my assessment of his play slipping but they don’t. But at the end of the day as I said with Poyer must start looking at Safety as Both are on the wrong side of 30. Jaquan Johnson, 26 yrs, Cap Hit 896K, Savings, 800K: Not many thoughts on him, I did like the pick in the draft and wasn’t ever going to knock off Hyde or Poyer, but he has been groomed with the Bills since he came in as a rookie, I don’t ever remember him spending any time on the PS and has been on the 53 from jump. There is something to be said about that. I was looking forward to watching him this PS, but looks like I will have to wait to see if we have a future replacement of one of these two already on the roster. Josh Thomas, 24 yrs - Futures – Was a STUD at App St. Was going to take time coming from the smaller program, signed as a UDFA after the draft. In his final year at App St. Had career high 72 tackles, 2, TFL, 1 FR and 1 INT. He carried the second-best coverage grade from PFF while playing in college. I am not sure something is there or not, but in the past offseason he really didn’t have a shot, this offseason he will get a chance with hopefully a more normal offseason and being on the PS all year, I would expect him to sign a futures deal as he was on the PS all year and was initially signed as a Priority UDFA. Possible UFA TGTs (go with my top 4 or top 5) I don’t think I would do anything at either CB or S in the UFA period. Reason being is I think with the Roster we currently have on contract we will try to address CB2 in house or in the draft. Safety I don’t see any movement needed there, but either way will treat this like Wallace received a 2nd round tender and stays. CB (looking at Depth): Darious Williams, 28 J.C. Jackson, 26 RFA – weaken NE and really solidify CB2 (wont happen though) Mike Hilton, 27 (likely 8M AAV) – would solidify CB2 Chideobe Awuzie, 26 Cameron Sutton, 26 Safeties Marcus Williams, 25 (9.4 AAV) – Long term replacement for Hyde John Johnson, 26 (8.3 AAV) – Long term for Poyer Ok to the point of what I would do. I am not touching this group at this point. So I would bring back Levi on the 2nd round tender, re-sign Marlowe and let Norman walk (unless on a Vet Min deal). I would look in the draft for the future Safety and CB2. That would be my initial going in plan, leaves depth chart like this. RCB – Wallace / Jackson / Gaines / Rookie NB – Johnson / Lewis / Neal LCB – White / Gaines SS - Poyer / Marlowe FS – Hyde / Johnson / Rookie Next Writeup: OL Past Writeups: Full Overview: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230905-buffalo-bills-offseason-primer-state-of-the-bills/ Defensive Line: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230921-offseason-primer-position-group-dl/ Linebackers: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230960-offseason-primer-position-group-lb/

Yeah that is what I was thinking when looking at him as well.

Having played the position from 8 years old to 22 years old. There is a reason for that. He is still young, and SO Physically talented, he has not had to go on his initial read (call it instincts or guessing). So instead you know you are better physically than every person you played against you take that extra half second to mak sure your read is correct and still can make the play. That is hampering him at times in the NFL because everyone is physically gifted. He will be GREAT if he can break that mindset of taking a half second longer knowing his physical traits will make up for the delay

They are both Good... The question is are they Top end Good to build around, I think that jury is still out on both

No and No

Appreciate it, I look forward to doing them and then reading all the comments helps me go back and look at something maybe I missed while looking at play of players. I am glad people enjoy them as a setup for the offseason when forming their own plans. I hate that the season is over too and I hope that next year I am doing this Mid Feb, after the Super Bowl win. This offseason is really interesting to me because we are finally in an offseason as a good team, that will have some hard financial and player decisions coming up because once that QB is paid you cannot pay everyone. I fully anticipate that as well.

This is where I am at. If they approach him this offseason about say a long term extension at 9M AAV today I think you do it, because you are taking the risk with the consistency of his play locking him now. Best de-risk is just pick the 5th year option up and have him play 2021 for an extension, though if he gets his head right and the consistency comes it could become more expensive to do it then than now. So essentially doing it now, the team can get some value for accepting Risk. Do it later you are transferring that Risk but could cost more in the long run.

Waiting on the Senior Bowl, but there are a couple interesting Draft Prospects later But intrigued by JaCoby Stevens, LSU - A SS Convert in the NFL. (have him as a 4th) DeAngelo Malone WKU - Small school, but explosive athlete (have him as a 3rd) Pete Werner OLB/ILB OSU. Grant Stuard, OLB Houston - Senior Bowl will be big for him (5th grade)

Linebacker – To me this is kind of an enigma unit at this point. Yes, there was times they struggled this year and there were times that they were good. While all their struggles can not be explained away (especially playing in space, guessing, wrong run fits) you can pin a good amount of their struggles as a group on the DL. The DL makes or breaks how effective a defense is, and there is a reason that LBers and DL are referenced as the Front 7. Because they are very dependent on eachother, the games they had bad days in the run game are the same days that the DL really struggled setting edges and stacking blocks. Now that that is said I by no means will write off all their struggles on the DL. The thing with this group is scheme, we are in Nickle, we run with 2LBers more than anyone in the league, so when looking at this group you must have 2 starters, a Spot LBer and then depth that complements the 2 starters. While I think we are OK at this point by no means did this past year settle me in on comfortable with this position group. Bills UFAs: Matt Milano, 26, WLB, 2020 AAV: 665K, SPOTRAC Market Value: 13.8M – Before I start breaking Milano down I will start with he SPOTRAC Market Value, looking at the COMPs they used they are giving him an edge designation (pass rush) as opposed to just a WLB designation. So I am sure the agent will try to use that rush skills to get maximum value, but I think there is wiggle room on this valuation because I really don’t think he plays like a true edge. I guess I could be ok with a 10M AAV contract (though I personally would let him walk at anything over 8 AAV, because WLB is the easiest position to play out of the LBers). He has a reputation of Injuries, which he does get nicked up a lot, and a lot of soft tissue injuries with him. Best attribute for a football player is Availability, and that has been an issue with him, But when he is on the field he does make a difference. 2020: in 10 games, 3.5 Sacks, 45 tackles, (only 4 for loss) 9 QB Hits with 3 PD and 1 Pick. If you run that out for a full 16 (something he has yet to do in his career, best availability year was 15 games in 2019) he does have a career year in all those stats projected out. But this is a decision player the Bills must think about, He is a home-grown player (something Bills have had issues keeping in the past) however he is also out of the Core positions of a football team. They locked their first home grown elite player in already with Tre White, will Milano be the second I am not sure strictly based on the positional value and you cannot sign everyone to a second contract. Del’Shawn Phillips 25, WLB, 2020 AAV: 695K, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A – Not much to go off him in Bills uniform anyway, but If they chose to let Milano walk this could be the first one to try and win that position, I would expect that if Milano walks Phillips could get a very team friendly long term deal to try and lock down that WLB spot. Coming out of draft he was compared to Nigel Brahdam, and his play in pass coverage in college likely makes him more of a SLB or spot play for Bills, does have good hands and physical traits, his play in college though I saw something I really don’t like with LBers and that is getting lost while trying to move through the wash. I Think a good cheap player though that could be a boom player and if that is the case Bills have a chance to lock him up on a very team friendly deal. I also think another guy will be given the chance to take Milano’s spot first if he is allowed to walk and will talk about him a little later. Andre Smith 25, ILB, 2020 AAV: 695K, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A (RFA) – He will be back, likely given the Original Round Tender, I guess they could not tender him and sign him at a lower value as well, but either way I think he will be back if nothing more than just his reputation on Special Teams and will be cheap. On Contract LBers: Tremaine Edmunds, 22 yrs, Cap Hit 4.028M: The decision that is looking with Tremaine is work an extension this offseason or just pick up the 5th year option. Two ways of looking at this IMO, Bills could work the extension now, and get the 22-year-old Mike under contract long term, which COULD turn out to be a value contract in the coming years, or they can wait and just pick up the 5th year option. I am not sure which route I would go, I think just pick the option up and go into 2021, but I can see the other side of the coin locking up now and moving on. His stats are roughly where he has been since coming into the league: 119 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 QB hits, 4 TFL, 3 PD. This year he didn’t have any picks (3 on his career). But now the question is this who he is or is there still room for the 22-year-old to grow? I know he is a polarizing player. I think he is a damn good LBer, he has had in struggles in space this year, but at the same time he has been really good in games as well. To me it screams consistency issues, those can obviously be worked out. He is a Core player of this team with the way the defense plays and he is a really good one, when DL is doing their jobs and stacking blocks where he can roam free you can always count on a stuff or minimal gain, where he has issues with when OL are getting into his body, he tries to use his speed to get around blocks, for him that causes dropping depth which opens lanes, I do think he needs to play a bit more physical and play through blocks and not try to run around them. That is always an issue at LBer with players that have the god given traits Tremaine. See when I played that same position in College I never had those traits I was a “grinder” so I was all about taking on blockers. I think that instinct of his to give ground to run around a block can be coached out. I have seen less and less of it this year compared to his first couple years. AJ Klein, 30 yrs, Cap Hit 6.4M, Savings 2.4M: AJ the tail of two LBers. Early in the year I wanted him CUT there was just nothing he did right, when he was in the right spot he was there late, I decided he was done and not close to the LBer he used to be in Carolina. Then like a switch he found his role and feet and boom became a good LBer when he was playing the game Bills wanted him to play. So why are LBers late to the spot that they need to be at. There is a couple reason, 1. Doesn’t get the scheme, that was not the problem with Klein he knows the scheme and got to the spot. 2. Physical traits are diminishing, I think that was his problem, he tried to play he still had his speed he used to have at WLB, and he doesn’t have that anymore, once he figured that out, he went on his first read, instead of hanging a half second to let the play develop more, before getting to his spot. A lot of people will call this “guessing” and in a sense it is (as you become vulnerable to misdirection) but it is something you have to do when you don’t have the physical traits anymore. When it works people say man that LBer has some nice instincts, when it doesn’t work, they say that LBer is guessing. Here is the thing with him as well, this yar was one of his best years arguably the best in his career numbers wise, 75 tackles, 5 TFL, 9 QB Hits, 5 Sacks, 2 FF and 4 PD. I think those numbers work with the cap hit, now that he found his role, I expect him to stay, I also hope he is teaching Tremaine to “guess” and not rely on his physical traits. Tyrel Dodson, 23 yrs, Cap Hit: 782K, Savings 780K: Didn’t look out of place in the games he got time, ended with 22 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 PD and 1 Sack in his limited time. I think he will be given the first shot at the WLB is Milano walks. Thing that gets me about him for his athletic ability he is more a straight line. LBer and not a sideline-to-sideline guy, not good playing scrape technique and gets lost in the wash. However, if he doesn’t have to move laterally too much, he is good. Add into that he is stiff in coverage he screams more of a SLB than a WLB IMO. But then again that is looking at him with limited snaps, so there is a caveat there that he may have different skills and ability than I have seen so far. I don’t think he is going anywhere though. Tyler Matakevich, 29 yrs, Cap Hit 3.7M, Savings 3.35M: This could be a cut, offers nothing to the LBer Core and was lost when he got meaningful snaps, BUT is a Special Teams STUD. So that is the decision do you want to keep him for ST vs Limited ability at the LBer spot. 23 Tackles, 2 PD from him. Mainly when I look at this position group, though listed as a LBer he is more a ST only player logging roughly 78% of all special teams snaps for the year. Darron Lee, 26 (PS) – I am sure they will end up signing him to a futures deal, and I figured I better talk about him as a former 1st round pick. If you look at his scouting report from College, you will see a legit skill set to fit the WLB of this type of defense. So, if Bills let Milano walk, he will get a shot at that spot for him, I think he played out of position with the Jets and that hurt his development and why he is now sitting on a team PS. Total stats from Chiefs and Bills last year, 32 tackles, also played ST in the two gams he was up in Buffalo in week 10 and 12. He has all the skills, traits you want in a WLB. Just be on the look out for Bills to sign Lee to more than a futures deal (meaning a nice team friendly long-term deal) and let Milano walk. IMO he will be the one that wins that WLB if Milano walks. Possible UFA TGTs (go with my top 4 or top 5) I am not sure they do anything here except for Depth. If Milano walks, they will look in house to fill that spot IMO. And their depth is decent maybe a Depth Backer and that is the UFAs I will look at, is depth type player. LBer: Haason Reddick, OLB, 27 – probably going to get paid BJ Goodson, ILB, 28 Kamalei Correa, ILB, 27 Nick Vigil, OLB, 28 Vince Biegel, OLB, 28 Ok to the point of what I would do. I could be talked into Milano re-signing if it is 9.5AAV or under, other than that I am letting him walk. With his projected AAV I am letting him walk. Could look at re-signing Phillips as that depth LBer I talked about should be no more than 1.5M AAV. I also look at someone like Goodson likely 2.25M AAV. But I don’t think that there is a need for a UFA LBer (seeing we play nickel a majority of the game). So I think maybe this is a position addressed in the draft at some point, and also with what is currently on the roster. Without signing Milano or ANY other Depth LBer this is what our Depth Chart would look like IMO. Sam – Klein / Phillips Mike – Edmunds / Goodson / Rookie Will – Lee / Dodson Next Writeup: DBs Past Writeups: Full Overview: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230905-buffalo-bills-offseason-primer-state-of-the-bills/page/3/?tab=comments#comment-7042742 Defensive Line: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230921-offseason-primer-position-group-dl/page/2/?tab=comments#comment-7043409

Without Digging into them yet, as I am doing the Bills right now. First impressions MIA has issues on: OL, RB, WR, LBer, Safeties, and a huge ? at QB.

Shocked she has Bad experiences with Bills fans too. Off her Rocker.

Sometime I think the rotation is out of necessity at the DE spot. If you had a complete stud that could take 80-90% of the snaps then the rotation works. I think Bills DL is so individually flawed in spots the heavy rotation is needed to mask the flaws.

Yeah Post season play comes into it also. If you had to tell me what I think they will do with Hughes he will be a Buffalo Bill next year. Might even get a little extension this offseason to drop cap hit by adding some voidable years. I went Bold in my thinking though so went and bought the best pure pass rusher and a top end 1 Tech. Agree and why I think Thomlinson will hit the market. Only signing one of the two IMO.