MAJBobby

Harris is a 2nd round grade on my Board.

The thing is though those LBers are becoming less and less in the NFL. KC exposed the soft zone we played and we never adjusted that is the problem, Want to play that soft Zone, need a disruptive DL, That really is the problem in Buffalo is the DL., no premier pass rusher on either side, no base end to set the edge (looks how often we are gashed with outside runs), no 1 Tech to keep your MIKE clean. I dont think our LBer group is an issue with or without Milano.

Yep I think the major changes are on DL and then adding youth via draft. I actually went into the Secondary thinking I was moving on from Hyde. Because like I said something with this season made me think his play dropped. But by looking at numbers he is right on par with where he has been so I was a little surprised when I was done there was no changes at the Safety spot. I do think the Biggest issue with this defense is the DL play. making changes now. Josh Thomas was a stud at APP St. Small school guy that likely really got hurt with no real offseason. Was one of the first UDFAs signed (if not the first) after the draft. Needs to grow up a bit as the step up in talent, but interested to see him in a regular type offseason (if we get one this year)

I hear you. And I am too. Though I must say writing these helped because as bad as Sunday was writing these shows me we are finally in a good place. Gotta get them done as I do a lot in offseason with Draft and such as well. Plus work has decided to send me to Jordan for a couple weeks right before UFA starts. So had to dig into them. Trying to get them done actually before SB so I can really start digging into draft.

I don’t agree one bit. And I really don’t agree he has failed.

I have heard that. I played with a safety that would take a little bit and boom up the nose. I never tried it though.

I always hit the smelling salts on sidelines when I played. I see Aaron Rodgers, Ben and actually a good amount of other QBs do it as well.

Yep you got my thinking off him on my initial look in the college board. Senior Bowl is going to be huge for him.

My Bad. Fixed. Thanks for letting me know guys.

To feel really old I already retired once by the time Josh Allen was drafted

Secondary – I personally do not like the Zone Heavy schemes, but I get that is what we are going to see mostly with the Bills Defense with McD. I will say though our zone scheme is Good, and performed against almost every team fine except KC. So, using McDs statement of “KC is the benchmark” I think we will see a little tweak bringing DBs that are more complete both Man and Zone. We did go through yet another year that is going to lead to a competition at CB2. That position needs to be settled this offseason IMO, and the Rotating at that spot needs to stop. So that is my thinking in terms of where this position group is at. Also, with Hyde and Poyer another year older I think safety is not as settled as it used to be, I will get into why a little later. But multiple Hail Mary’s completed on you in the span of a couple weeks should have people immediately look at the safety play. What I do like about them is there is juice on this team from the Safety and CB spot when it comes to blitzing, I think it is a asset that we do not use enough. Bills UFAs: Josh Norman, 34, CB, 2020 AAV: 6M, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A – 1 INT, 4PD, 1 FF, allowed 65.6% complete against him (right where he has been his entire time in Washington), with an 84 RTG against him. Ok he can walk, yes, he made a couple plays often he didn’t. I get everyone talking about having Veterans are vital, but Tre White is your veteran in the position, eventually as fans we must start looking at our younger players as veterans, as they have been in the scheme since McD got here. We are at a point that if Norman is willing to accept Veteran Minimum, I will be fine with the re-signing, anything over the minimum and he can walk. Dean Marlowe 29, SS, 2020 AAV: 1.55M, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A – 2 INTs, 3 PD, 1.5 Sack, 69.2% completion against and a 105. Rating against. Marlowe stays, solid depth back at safety and cannot go into the season with the unknown of Johnson as your primary Safety Backup. Should come cheap, something like a 2 year 4.5M contract with 2.25M AAV will keep him in Buffalo. It would not make sense to let him walk and create a question mark at Depth unless you are planning to draft the replacement for Hyde / Poyer this year. Quality depth and should be cheap. Levi Wallace 26, CB, 2020 AAV: 750K, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A (RFA) – Former UDFA still has not just taken the CB2 job and made it his. I think the smart move here is put a 2nd round tender on him if he is offersheeted let him walk. If he is isn’t then he is in camp for yet another competition at the CB2 spot. He will be back, likely given the Original Round Tender, I guess they could not tender him and sign him at a lower value as well, but either way I think he will be back if nothing more than just his reputation on Special Teams and will be cheap. 2 INT, 8PD, 57.1% catch against him (65.7% in 2019), Rating though 85.0% which is right about here he has been his time in Buffalo. On Contract CBs: Tre’Davious White, 26 yrs, Cap Hit 14.05M: So, with Tre the numbers on him are 3 INTs, 11 PD, 1 FF, 2 FR, 1.5 Sacks, gave up 4 TDs. The fancy numbers include 56.9% against him (this is where he has been essentially since his time in Buffalo), Rating against 79.9% (this in line with his rookie year) however last year he had this at 43.3% (this drops obviously because he had 6 picks last year and 0 TDs). Rest of his advanced numbers are right in line with where he has been his entire career in Buffalo. Faced 65 targtets this year (73 rookie year and 90 last year). We know he dealt with injury this year as well and I am not sure how much that made him struggle, but those saying Tre got paid and slacked the numbers just do NOT show that. He is the best player on this team and his contract going forward is not bad. I would like to see him in man and following the top WR around a little more, but I do not think that is going to happen. We are fine here, so those that think he regressed come off the ledge. Taron Johnson, 25 yrs, Cap Hit 1.08M, Savings 930K: Yes, I understand everyone loved the 101 pick 6. But it is more than that. 1 INT, 7 PD, 1 FF, 1 sack, 5 TFL. He was Targeted the most in his career. At 79 targets (41, 49 in years past) and still at 68.4% complete and a 91.5 rating, those are right in line with his career despite facing more Targets this year, so I think many can say we know exactly what he is, a very good NB. His run support is amazing, maybe not the best cover nickel that is out in the league, but I would say once of the better run support and blitzing NBs in the league. Our Zone Heavy concepts minimize his short area quickness and stiff hips that plague him in coverage. EJ Gaines, 29 yrs, Cap Hit: 0, Savings 850K: Yes, he is a Bill has been all season as a COVID Opt out. So we do have someone that excelled at CB2 when healthy in the mold before he took off chasing money. IMO, he replaced Norman going forward. Cam Lewis, 24 yrs, Cap Hit 780K, Savings 780K: Didn’t look out of place in 2 games this season, but does have a size issue outside, at only 5-9. I don’t see anything more than a Depth CB here, I know many had high hopes for him, I just don’t see it in his play will be coming off IR. Siran Neal, 27, Cap Hit 991K, Savings 920K – He has value as a Depth CB, and Safety also probably one of our better ST players, I don’t think he is going anywhere, unless they are really in a cap crunch, to me you are not going to be able to replace his ST play and spot play as needed for 920K (space that opens up). 1 PD, 66.7% completed against him on 9 targets with a rating of 80.3. But his value really is in ST where he logs 60% of all special teams’ snaps. I listed him here as that is how Bills list him but more likely a Safety / Big Nickel. Dane Jackson, 24 – Futures – I know there are a lot of Dane Jackson truthers out there, I will say he didn’t look out of place at all when he played and I was calling for him to log more snaps so that is a good thing, means he flashed to m when he played. 1 INT, 5 PD, 1FR, allowed 61.9% on 21 TGTs, and a RTG against 96.2%. I think he will be the first in line to try to secure that CB2 spot in the offseason. The Dane truthers can talk more about his skill set. Duke Thomas, 27 – On PS, I don’t expect anything on him other than Camp Fodder if given a futures contract. Was signed on Bills PS on 1 Jan On Contract S: Jordan Poyer, 30 yrs, Cap Hit 7.875, Savings 5.875 – When looking at the numbers important to note 4.775 becomes fully guaranteed on 5th day of new league year, so if he is still on the roster (fully expect him to be) savings after that point is only 1.1M, just for reference. I think there was something going on with him at the start of the season because for the first 5 weeks or, so I was thinking well we extended the wrong Safety. However, he then came on. Finished with 2 INTs, 5 PD, 2FF, 2 sacks, 124 tackles with 4 QB hits. He gave up a 72.9% rate on 48 targets (both highest number since being a Bill) and had a Rating of 90.0 which was lower than he did last year so that is good. All and all a real Solid Season for him. Will remain, but we really must start looking at some younger replacements at Safety in the future. Micah Hyde, 31, Cap Hit 6.718, Savings 5.1M – Hyde ended the season with 1 INT, 5 PD, 70 Tackles, and a 63.6% on 22 TGTs and a rating of 82.2 when thrown against. For some reason I am not sure when I come away from the season with his play slipping, when the numbers are right in line with where he has been his entire time in Buffalo. But I will say there is something about this years season that had me coming away thinking his play slipped, I guess I have to go back and watch some games again and see why I felt that way. Maybe it has to do with the plays he made have not been special plays like he has made in the season prior and just had a very quietly good season. There is something I must look at, because I fully expected the numbers to match with my assessment of his play slipping but they don’t. But at the end of the day as I said with Poyer must start looking at Safety as Both are on the wrong side of 30. Jaquan Johnson, 26 yrs, Cap Hit 896K, Savings, 800K: Not many thoughts on him, I did like the pick in the draft and wasn’t ever going to knock off Hyde or Poyer, but he has been groomed with the Bills since he came in as a rookie, I don’t ever remember him spending any time on the PS and has been on the 53 from jump. There is something to be said about that. I was looking forward to watching him this PS, but looks like I will have to wait to see if we have a future replacement of one of these two already on the roster. Josh Thomas, 24 yrs - Futures – Was a STUD at App St. Was going to take time coming from the smaller program, signed as a UDFA after the draft. In his final year at App St. Had career high 72 tackles, 2, TFL, 1 FR and 1 INT. He carried the second-best coverage grade from PFF while playing in college. I am not sure something is there or not, but in the past offseason he really didn’t have a shot, this offseason he will get a chance with hopefully a more normal offseason and being on the PS all year, I would expect him to sign a futures deal as he was on the PS all year and was initially signed as a Priority UDFA. Possible UFA TGTs (go with my top 4 or top 5) I don’t think I would do anything at either CB or S in the UFA period. Reason being is I think with the Roster we currently have on contract we will try to address CB2 in house or in the draft. Safety I don’t see any movement needed there, but either way will treat this like Wallace received a 2nd round tender and stays. CB (looking at Depth): Darious Williams, 28 J.C. Jackson, 26 RFA – weaken NE and really solidify CB2 (wont happen though) Mike Hilton, 27 (likely 8M AAV) – would solidify CB2 Chideobe Awuzie, 26 Cameron Sutton, 26 Safeties Marcus Williams, 25 (9.4 AAV) – Long term replacement for Hyde John Johnson, 26 (8.3 AAV) – Long term for Poyer Ok to the point of what I would do. I am not touching this group at this point. So I would bring back Levi on the 2nd round tender, re-sign Marlowe and let Norman walk (unless on a Vet Min deal). I would look in the draft for the future Safety and CB2. That would be my initial going in plan, leaves depth chart like this. RCB – Wallace / Jackson / Gaines / Rookie NB – Johnson / Lewis / Neal LCB – White / Gaines SS - Poyer / Marlowe FS – Hyde / Johnson / Rookie Next Writeup: OL Past Writeups: Full Overview: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230905-buffalo-bills-offseason-primer-state-of-the-bills/ Defensive Line: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230921-offseason-primer-position-group-dl/ Linebackers: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230960-offseason-primer-position-group-lb/

Yeah that is what I was thinking when looking at him as well.

Having played the position from 8 years old to 22 years old. There is a reason for that. He is still young, and SO Physically talented, he has not had to go on his initial read (call it instincts or guessing). So instead you know you are better physically than every person you played against you take that extra half second to mak sure your read is correct and still can make the play. That is hampering him at times in the NFL because everyone is physically gifted. He will be GREAT if he can break that mindset of taking a half second longer knowing his physical traits will make up for the delay

They are both Good... The question is are they Top end Good to build around, I think that jury is still out on both

No and No

Appreciate it, I look forward to doing them and then reading all the comments helps me go back and look at something maybe I missed while looking at play of players. I am glad people enjoy them as a setup for the offseason when forming their own plans. I hate that the season is over too and I hope that next year I am doing this Mid Feb, after the Super Bowl win. This offseason is really interesting to me because we are finally in an offseason as a good team, that will have some hard financial and player decisions coming up because once that QB is paid you cannot pay everyone. I fully anticipate that as well.

This is where I am at. If they approach him this offseason about say a long term extension at 9M AAV today I think you do it, because you are taking the risk with the consistency of his play locking him now. Best de-risk is just pick the 5th year option up and have him play 2021 for an extension, though if he gets his head right and the consistency comes it could become more expensive to do it then than now. So essentially doing it now, the team can get some value for accepting Risk. Do it later you are transferring that Risk but could cost more in the long run.

Waiting on the Senior Bowl, but there are a couple interesting Draft Prospects later But intrigued by JaCoby Stevens, LSU - A SS Convert in the NFL. (have him as a 4th) DeAngelo Malone WKU - Small school, but explosive athlete (have him as a 3rd) Pete Werner OLB/ILB OSU. Grant Stuard, OLB Houston - Senior Bowl will be big for him (5th grade)

Linebacker – To me this is kind of an enigma unit at this point. Yes, there was times they struggled this year and there were times that they were good. While all their struggles can not be explained away (especially playing in space, guessing, wrong run fits) you can pin a good amount of their struggles as a group on the DL. The DL makes or breaks how effective a defense is, and there is a reason that LBers and DL are referenced as the Front 7. Because they are very dependent on eachother, the games they had bad days in the run game are the same days that the DL really struggled setting edges and stacking blocks. Now that that is said I by no means will write off all their struggles on the DL. The thing with this group is scheme, we are in Nickle, we run with 2LBers more than anyone in the league, so when looking at this group you must have 2 starters, a Spot LBer and then depth that complements the 2 starters. While I think we are OK at this point by no means did this past year settle me in on comfortable with this position group. Bills UFAs: Matt Milano, 26, WLB, 2020 AAV: 665K, SPOTRAC Market Value: 13.8M – Before I start breaking Milano down I will start with he SPOTRAC Market Value, looking at the COMPs they used they are giving him an edge designation (pass rush) as opposed to just a WLB designation. So I am sure the agent will try to use that rush skills to get maximum value, but I think there is wiggle room on this valuation because I really don’t think he plays like a true edge. I guess I could be ok with a 10M AAV contract (though I personally would let him walk at anything over 8 AAV, because WLB is the easiest position to play out of the LBers). He has a reputation of Injuries, which he does get nicked up a lot, and a lot of soft tissue injuries with him. Best attribute for a football player is Availability, and that has been an issue with him, But when he is on the field he does make a difference. 2020: in 10 games, 3.5 Sacks, 45 tackles, (only 4 for loss) 9 QB Hits with 3 PD and 1 Pick. If you run that out for a full 16 (something he has yet to do in his career, best availability year was 15 games in 2019) he does have a career year in all those stats projected out. But this is a decision player the Bills must think about, He is a home-grown player (something Bills have had issues keeping in the past) however he is also out of the Core positions of a football team. They locked their first home grown elite player in already with Tre White, will Milano be the second I am not sure strictly based on the positional value and you cannot sign everyone to a second contract. Del’Shawn Phillips 25, WLB, 2020 AAV: 695K, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A – Not much to go off him in Bills uniform anyway, but If they chose to let Milano walk this could be the first one to try and win that position, I would expect that if Milano walks Phillips could get a very team friendly long term deal to try and lock down that WLB spot. Coming out of draft he was compared to Nigel Brahdam, and his play in pass coverage in college likely makes him more of a SLB or spot play for Bills, does have good hands and physical traits, his play in college though I saw something I really don’t like with LBers and that is getting lost while trying to move through the wash. I Think a good cheap player though that could be a boom player and if that is the case Bills have a chance to lock him up on a very team friendly deal. I also think another guy will be given the chance to take Milano’s spot first if he is allowed to walk and will talk about him a little later. Andre Smith 25, ILB, 2020 AAV: 695K, SPOTRAC Market Value: N/A (RFA) – He will be back, likely given the Original Round Tender, I guess they could not tender him and sign him at a lower value as well, but either way I think he will be back if nothing more than just his reputation on Special Teams and will be cheap. On Contract LBers: Tremaine Edmunds, 22 yrs, Cap Hit 4.028M: The decision that is looking with Tremaine is work an extension this offseason or just pick up the 5th year option. Two ways of looking at this IMO, Bills could work the extension now, and get the 22-year-old Mike under contract long term, which COULD turn out to be a value contract in the coming years, or they can wait and just pick up the 5th year option. I am not sure which route I would go, I think just pick the option up and go into 2021, but I can see the other side of the coin locking up now and moving on. His stats are roughly where he has been since coming into the league: 119 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 QB hits, 4 TFL, 3 PD. This year he didn’t have any picks (3 on his career). But now the question is this who he is or is there still room for the 22-year-old to grow? I know he is a polarizing player. I think he is a damn good LBer, he has had in struggles in space this year, but at the same time he has been really good in games as well. To me it screams consistency issues, those can obviously be worked out. He is a Core player of this team with the way the defense plays and he is a really good one, when DL is doing their jobs and stacking blocks where he can roam free you can always count on a stuff or minimal gain, where he has issues with when OL are getting into his body, he tries to use his speed to get around blocks, for him that causes dropping depth which opens lanes, I do think he needs to play a bit more physical and play through blocks and not try to run around them. That is always an issue at LBer with players that have the god given traits Tremaine. See when I played that same position in College I never had those traits I was a “grinder” so I was all about taking on blockers. I think that instinct of his to give ground to run around a block can be coached out. I have seen less and less of it this year compared to his first couple years. AJ Klein, 30 yrs, Cap Hit 6.4M, Savings 2.4M: AJ the tail of two LBers. Early in the year I wanted him CUT there was just nothing he did right, when he was in the right spot he was there late, I decided he was done and not close to the LBer he used to be in Carolina. Then like a switch he found his role and feet and boom became a good LBer when he was playing the game Bills wanted him to play. So why are LBers late to the spot that they need to be at. There is a couple reason, 1. Doesn’t get the scheme, that was not the problem with Klein he knows the scheme and got to the spot. 2. Physical traits are diminishing, I think that was his problem, he tried to play he still had his speed he used to have at WLB, and he doesn’t have that anymore, once he figured that out, he went on his first read, instead of hanging a half second to let the play develop more, before getting to his spot. A lot of people will call this “guessing” and in a sense it is (as you become vulnerable to misdirection) but it is something you have to do when you don’t have the physical traits anymore. When it works people say man that LBer has some nice instincts, when it doesn’t work, they say that LBer is guessing. Here is the thing with him as well, this yar was one of his best years arguably the best in his career numbers wise, 75 tackles, 5 TFL, 9 QB Hits, 5 Sacks, 2 FF and 4 PD. I think those numbers work with the cap hit, now that he found his role, I expect him to stay, I also hope he is teaching Tremaine to “guess” and not rely on his physical traits. Tyrel Dodson, 23 yrs, Cap Hit: 782K, Savings 780K: Didn’t look out of place in the games he got time, ended with 22 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 PD and 1 Sack in his limited time. I think he will be given the first shot at the WLB is Milano walks. Thing that gets me about him for his athletic ability he is more a straight line. LBer and not a sideline-to-sideline guy, not good playing scrape technique and gets lost in the wash. However, if he doesn’t have to move laterally too much, he is good. Add into that he is stiff in coverage he screams more of a SLB than a WLB IMO. But then again that is looking at him with limited snaps, so there is a caveat there that he may have different skills and ability than I have seen so far. I don’t think he is going anywhere though. Tyler Matakevich, 29 yrs, Cap Hit 3.7M, Savings 3.35M: This could be a cut, offers nothing to the LBer Core and was lost when he got meaningful snaps, BUT is a Special Teams STUD. So that is the decision do you want to keep him for ST vs Limited ability at the LBer spot. 23 Tackles, 2 PD from him. Mainly when I look at this position group, though listed as a LBer he is more a ST only player logging roughly 78% of all special teams snaps for the year. Darron Lee, 26 (PS) – I am sure they will end up signing him to a futures deal, and I figured I better talk about him as a former 1st round pick. If you look at his scouting report from College, you will see a legit skill set to fit the WLB of this type of defense. So, if Bills let Milano walk, he will get a shot at that spot for him, I think he played out of position with the Jets and that hurt his development and why he is now sitting on a team PS. Total stats from Chiefs and Bills last year, 32 tackles, also played ST in the two gams he was up in Buffalo in week 10 and 12. He has all the skills, traits you want in a WLB. Just be on the look out for Bills to sign Lee to more than a futures deal (meaning a nice team friendly long-term deal) and let Milano walk. IMO he will be the one that wins that WLB if Milano walks. Possible UFA TGTs (go with my top 4 or top 5) I am not sure they do anything here except for Depth. If Milano walks, they will look in house to fill that spot IMO. And their depth is decent maybe a Depth Backer and that is the UFAs I will look at, is depth type player. LBer: Haason Reddick, OLB, 27 – probably going to get paid BJ Goodson, ILB, 28 Kamalei Correa, ILB, 27 Nick Vigil, OLB, 28 Vince Biegel, OLB, 28 Ok to the point of what I would do. I could be talked into Milano re-signing if it is 9.5AAV or under, other than that I am letting him walk. With his projected AAV I am letting him walk. Could look at re-signing Phillips as that depth LBer I talked about should be no more than 1.5M AAV. I also look at someone like Goodson likely 2.25M AAV. But I don’t think that there is a need for a UFA LBer (seeing we play nickel a majority of the game). So I think maybe this is a position addressed in the draft at some point, and also with what is currently on the roster. Without signing Milano or ANY other Depth LBer this is what our Depth Chart would look like IMO. Sam – Klein / Phillips Mike – Edmunds / Goodson / Rookie Will – Lee / Dodson Next Writeup: DBs Past Writeups: Full Overview: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230905-buffalo-bills-offseason-primer-state-of-the-bills/page/3/?tab=comments#comment-7042742 Defensive Line: https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/230921-offseason-primer-position-group-dl/page/2/?tab=comments#comment-7043409

Without Digging into them yet, as I am doing the Bills right now. First impressions MIA has issues on: OL, RB, WR, LBer, Safeties, and a huge ? at QB.

Shocked she has Bad experiences with Bills fans too. Off her Rocker.

Sometime I think the rotation is out of necessity at the DE spot. If you had a complete stud that could take 80-90% of the snaps then the rotation works. I think Bills DL is so individually flawed in spots the heavy rotation is needed to mask the flaws.

Yeah Post season play comes into it also. If you had to tell me what I think they will do with Hughes he will be a Buffalo Bill next year. Might even get a little extension this offseason to drop cap hit by adding some voidable years. I went Bold in my thinking though so went and bought the best pure pass rusher and a top end 1 Tech. Agree and why I think Thomlinson will hit the market. Only signing one of the two IMO.

yeah I hear you in the Value. Both those I used strictly SPOTRAC Market Analysis for both of them as they have taken into account the depressed market due to the COVID Cap stuff. In a normal year I complete agree with your AAV assessments. I understand about Yannick run issues I am less concerned about that because of what I said with the Run Defense philosophical debate on how much facing an offense like we have helps the run defense. His signing for me was pure pressure based and once I saw the projected 15M AAV I was all over it. That was my thinking on that signing. But I also understand your takes.

Defensive Line – This is an area that needs a lot of help IMO. It was almost like the story of 3 seasons, beginning could not stop the run with anyone, end of the season got better against the run (I think the offense was the major reason why) and then playoffs back to struggling against the run. But the point in the middle of the offense is the reason why I am not as worried about defending the run as others are. It is a philosophical debate that happens every year, but IMO the offense putting up 30 a game (in those games we didn’t struggle against the run) do more in stopping the other teams run than plugging in fat guys to eat up space. If our offense is dictating pace and scoring at the clip they did at the end of the season, teams cannot run and try to keep with us that was evident in play. With all that said though the DL underperformed all season, yes there was flashes but less and less as the season went on. That is kind of where I am at looking at this group. Last think I use all ages that they will be in the next season. I think this is going to be the most in flux position group of the offseason, alot of money spent here with not the same comparable production. Bills UFAs: Trent Murphy, 31 yrs, DE – This is a let walk candidate and a major miss on Beane this offseason, it looks like the right move would have been extend Shaq Lawson (3/30) and replace Trent with him. The Bills chose not to, instead they got an expensive spot player (I think a healthy scratch more than he impacted games). Nothing changed with Murphy, he was still a liability setting the edge (something Shaq did well) and offered very spotty pressure as well. Though I know I mention Shaq by no means am I a Shaq lover either, but he did play the run better than Murphy and offered the same threat in pass rush that Murphy added. So long story short Murphy walks. On Contract DE: Mario Addison, 34 yrs, Cap hit: 10.1M, Savings: 6.1M: Had 30 tackles, 5 sacks, 8 QB hits. Those Sack numbers are his worst in his career since 2013. I do not think that performance justifies the cap hit. That is roughly 2M a sack. He is a good player to have in the rotation for closer to 5M AAV not 10M AAV. At his age he could retire, but I also think there is no trade value with him. Still under contract through 2022. However, Bills built their contract to have the out year after year one, similar to Murphy’s was built. He didn’t look explosive and seemed his one thing that was talked about his sack ability was not on display and he got more than enough snaps to make an impact just didn’t. The DE group has a lot of those type DEs that are good players but nothing that scares anyone. Also has a 800K bonus due on the 5th day of the new year, so I expect a early decision on Addison. Though I also don’t think 800K is prohibitive to pick up and cut later in the offseason. Jerry Hughes, 33 yrs, Cap Hit 9.45M, Savings 7.35M: Jerry had 29 Tackles, 4.5 Sacks, 2 recovered fumbles 11 QB hits. As much as I hate to say this this is the second year with similar production from him. He does get pressure and wins his pass rush rates at a high clip but hasn’t finished really well since 2018. Jerry also hasn’t played the run well either in the last couple years. Final year of his deal, I think there is a 3rd or 4th round trade value on him as well. This specific player is going to be the one off hanging with nostalgia or moving based on production. Reality 4.5 sacks a year from your premier pass rusher isn’t going to cut it. If you think about it 19.5M Cap hit for 9 sacks. Is what you get with Addison and Hughes. I do understand rotation, however I also think a heavy rotation tells me you do not have a Stud. Example if Bills had a Shaq Barrett, how often would he come off the field. Now the performance aspect done, there is the leadership and emotional aspect that comes with Hughes, he is the leader of that DL, So I guess it comes down to how much the Bills value that. A.J. Epenesa, 23 yrs, Cap Hit: 1.33: AJ had 1 sack, 14 tackles 4 hits. He looked like he was a rookie, that went through a weird offseason and didn’t get much work, looked over matched and not strong enough during the season, though did get better. I think the offseason really hurt him to start the season and why he started getting more time later in the season. Still looks small, lost quickness (never had a lot to begin with). I think the Bills need to decide what they want him to become, if he is a base 4-3 end (I think that is where he best fits) then they need him to add weight and become stronger (quickness becomes less an issue). I say that because his pass rush moves he uses are those of a base DE, more power moves than speed moves. I think he will be OK with a real offseason adding power. I am not kidding myself I do not expect 10 plus sacks a year from him. He started setting the edge well later in the season and was more effective against the run than he was in his pass rush and why I think he is your future 4-3 base end. Darryl Johnson, 24 yrs, Cap Hit 789K: I really like Johnson on this team, in terms of Defense he had 14 tackles, 1 Sack and 5 hits. He is a good player on the base end against the Run, he did outplay Murphy when in the game and very similar numbers to AJ. I think with Johnson and Epenesa as the rotation at the Base end position we are ok there, however they do need to up their sack production. He also adds value on Special teams. Looked like he added 2 counters to his pass rush plan but needs to get more effective there. But I have no issue with him on this team as a liability, there could be an upgrade if needed, but I would look elsewhere (mainly the Premier DE on the other side) Bryan Cox Jr (26) and Mike Love (27) - Both signed Futures Deal – Nothing much to say about either being on the PS all year, will come to camp but IMO both are JAGs can add any two names and get he same. I don’t see either on this team long term. On Contract DT: Quinton Jefferson, 28 yrs, Cap Hit 8M: Savings 6.5M: - Performed right like he has his entire career, 23 tackles, 3 sacks and 6 QB hits. So, he performed as he always has, if they bills are happy with that performance then that is what they bought. I personally think he was paid in a structure to be better than he always has been. The Bills balked at going this high for Jordan Phillips who was a much more impactful player in Buffalo. So, I do not think his production warrants an 8M price tag. Just a reminder they balked at that price tag for Phillips coming off a season with 9.5 sacks, 25 tackles and 16 QB hits. Vernon Butler, 27 yrs, Cap Hit 7.818M, Savings: 6.818M – Was completely ineffective with the Bills defense, has 0 Sacks, 18 tackles and 2 QB hits. I am unsure what they thought they were getting with him. His 6-sack year in Carolina was an anomaly compared to career. Maybe he just doesn’t fit the scheme but absent 2019 year he performed like he did very year in Carolina. Just not sure what they thought they were buying here for almost 8M, must correct that mistake. I guess he did play out of position all year and that likely hurt. But to me what I am seeing right now is this years play was his Norm in terms of production. Star Lotulelei, 32 yrs, Cap Hit: 7.6M – First let me say he is NOT going to get cut Opted Out so nothing to go on this year. The Dead cap is prohibitive, is he didn’t opt out then this offseason would be the out year, but he opted out and froze the contract. Now I will say I have been a Star hater since the minute he was overpaid. However, his last year playing he showed up and made me change my mind on him. He is really good at what he does, and the cap hits (still a bit high IMO) are back to where they should be. What SCARES me about Star is Bigger guy, Older, out of football for a year. What is he? And it is that specific reason I am worried about putting all my 1 TECH eggs in the Star basket. But either way he is on the team next year, so just need to have a BU plan in place. Ed Oliver, 23 yrs, Cap Hit: 5.335M – I am sure I am going to catch hell on this, but I think Ed Oliver improved from his rookie year by a lot. The Stats are down, but he also had a tire fire next to him at 1 tech. Heck they even have him playing 1 Tech and that isn’t not his game. He was much more disruptive from the middle this year and did collapse pockets, that is what you want from him. I think this was Eds best year, there was points in the game he was unblockable. If people thought they were getting Aaron Donald I feel for them because there is one Aaron Donald, but he did improve his technique on stacking Doubles and just anchoring. I thought he was one of the Better players if not the best player on the DL this year. I think he will be fine and by the time his extension is due will be talked about as a must re-sign. Harrison Phillips, 25 Cap Hit: 1.14M – Another I am going to likely catch crap for, but he regressed. Multiple healthy scratches when Bills where trying to find anything at DT. This was his chance to grab that DT spot and not let go but instead he was JAG. Now I am not going to come down too hard on him as I am sure he wasn’t fully recovered from his Injury. But I am not going to expect Phillips as part of my log term future I cannot replace, needs to make big strides next year. Justin Zimmer, 28 Cap Hit: 920K – I get hit there was a big play in the NE game, and the hustle on the Taron Pick 6. But other than that JAG. I know people love the underdog story but he is not part of the long term future of the team. Brandin Bryant, 27 - Futures – Blah going to be camp fodder. I don’t post about possible trade TGTs (but No Kahlil Mack is not going to be traded to Buffalo) Possible UFA TGTs (go with my top 4 or top 5) DE: (yes there are more, but I have an age cutoff of normally 28 because I talk impact players) Yannick Ngakoue, 26 Matt Judon, 29 Bud Dupree, 28 Jadeveon Clowney, 28 Solomon Thomas, 26 (prove it deal off injury) DT: Leonard Williams, 27 Sheldon Rankins, 27 Dalvin Thomlinson, 27 Larry Ogunjobi, 27 Ok to the point of what I would do. I would Cut Jefferson, Butler, Addison, Hughes. Saving 26.7M in cap space as well as letting Murphy walk. From there I sign Ngakoue (15M AAV) to get that impact pass rusher Then I shore up the 1Tech (getting ready to move on from Star after this year with Dalvin Thomlinson (9M AAV). I think both at these AAVs are doable in the future years, and I think the market being depressed with a lot of teams in cap issues it is going to be a buyers’ market. I think it is set up to get a good amount of impact players on value contracts (now that said I am sure the players see that as well and many may opt to one-year deals waiting on 2022 market when cap grows again after COVID). Other possibility is to address in the draft, but with were we are picking I don’t see an impact pass rusher making it to where we are at this point. But addressing all in the draft it brings the youth movement, but with that I think Hughes Stays, only way I am cutting him is with a younger player bought via UFA or trade. So with the moves you take that 26.7M and add players younger and more dynamic at a cost of With this type of changes your starters look like this for 2021. Still gonna need to add a rookie DE in the draft somewhere or Cox / Love need to step up. But without any other additions this is what the depth chart looks like. DE – Ngakoue / Love / Cox 3 Tech – Oliver / Phillips / Zimmer 1 Tech – Thomlinson / Star / Bryant DE - Epenesa / Darryl Johnson Can replace Ngakoue or Thomlinson with different players, but with the window open I don’t think you can wait on a Rookie DE (need to get one in UFA IMO) and I don’t think it would be smart to rely on Star as the stud 1 Tech next year either. This position group (probably with OL) is the likely the most interesting position group on the team, as there is a lot of money already spent there that they can get out of, but every time it leaves a hole, and this position group IMO is the one that needs the most work this offseason.