YattaOkasan
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Posts posted by YattaOkasan
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1 minute ago, PBF81 said:
Nice summarization!
We need to keep in mind as well, that 17 of our 32 points were either set-up by the D or that one single big play to Shakir. Those are things that cannot be counted on from game to game.
Our first FG was set-up by STs handing the ball to our offense at the Jets' 21. We netted 3 yards before settling for a FG there. The ball was handed to the O already well within FG range.
Our first TD was set-up by Douglas' INT at the Jets' 23.
Then of course that 81-yard TD by Shakir.
Otherwise, 15 points, one TD and 3 FGs. Hardly prolific.
Again, the point, those first three are not things that can be planned in, particularly against good teams. This was a Zach Wilson-led offense, or should we say lead offense given that it's weighted down by him, quite possibly in his last planned NFL start as a #1 QB ever.
If/when we show up like that against @Philly and @KC it'll begin to look more like it may stick.
Sure but we got the second most total yard against the Jets in the past two season (and that was with us taking the foot off the gas in the 4th quarter). So is the score inflated yes, but we did move the ball on that defense.
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15 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:
My point is the defense has performed statistically well on the season against bad offenses and are in for a wake up call, facing good offenses.
is this true? We gave up 29 to the Pats who are a bad offense and 24 to the broncos who aint great either. On the flip side we held Miami in check as well as Cinci and Jax (not killer offenses i know). I dont think its as simple as we do well against bad offenses.
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On 11/3/2023 at 10:45 PM, BuffBillsForLife said:
No force in heaven or earth can make Mike Tomlin finish under .500
Statistics either.
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Assuming others have said it, but this is great cause it makes it harder to shorten the game on us. Yeah you can still pick on LB but just running the ball down our throats now is gonna be tough.
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Butch Byrd to the wall already please. leads the franchise in interceptions when the ball was not being tossed around as much.
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10 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:
But DID he really? That's the narrative, but it isn't supported by anything other than repetition. Can it be quantified at all?
Joe Marino did a podcast on it last year. I think completion % in the middle of the field was really low. But overall not worth the salary he got and Bernard offers abilities they desire more
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On 10/20/2023 at 11:04 AM, Big Turk said:
You mean their 31st ranked run and pass offense. Yes...huge challenge it would seem. Watch other games much?
You know that players do improve typically in their rookie years as time goes on right? Usually pretty massively. That's why I specifically said end of the season.
For sure but must of the talk here has been positive and as I said his ceiling looks high. Like any rookie he looks inconsistent. Guess I would point you to spencer brown, another 3rd round/high ceiling player we had to depend on as a rookie. People were so thrilled with him (people thought his absence was why we lost the jags game) and then realized he wasn’t reliable. I see willams in a similar light. Def doesn’t have to turn out the same but I’m not taking improvement as a guarantee and right now it’s got some big lows.
would also note I didn’t mind the draft pick at the time as much as others that loathed it. I think it looks better in hindsight and the logic is clear (need good play behind Milano in case of injury). Just like Kincaid I think we should temper our expectations.
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I think his giants film for the most part is pretty rough but did show flashes so I’ll be super happy with a push. Cover 1 did a good breakdown (though they are higher than I am). He was responsible for two explosive plays (believe the other two were the perfect drop in a bucket throws by TT). Additionally he got beat by the same TE crossing pattern later in the game and Poyer saved his bacon. The flashes though were pretty great (Barkley coverage and taking in a pulling C) so I see the upside but if the giants can take advantage of him I’m worried what a better offense can do.
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18 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:
Under center or not - a mesh action is going to hold any defender keying the mesh a split second.
Sure but I guess which holds the defender longer. seems a bit harder to find the ball when one player could be running the opposite direction from the RB (versus standing next to them or not running as fast)
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4 minutes ago, Warcodered said:
Can playaction be effective without a running game, sure, would it be more effective with a good running game, obviously.
What seems to matter (and would like to see some data) is if the formation is under center or not. My thought is under center the ball gets hidden better and thus the LBs come a bit further forward. I also suspect a down and distance aspect to this. 3 & 10 is not gonna bring the LBs up as much as 3 & 3.
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3 hours ago, Ralonzo said:
Thanks. Just to expound on it, almost the entirety of the modern NFL runs route trees that sight-adjust based on the leverage relative to the defender. QBs succeed or fail in the NFL by their ability to process and correct for those adjustments. What is "revolutionary" about Miami's offense is that it doesn't use those concepts as much as a timing scheme where the ball arrives at a window along with the receiver, or if can scheme a guy to be Alabama-open. Tua can be effective if either/both of those things happen because he's accurate short & intermediate and can hoist it far enough (usually) if a guy is runnnig free by 5 yards. But, if opponents start showing up in those windows and/or guys aren't Alabama-open, it looks more like yesterday's 2nd half.
I'll give credit though, the intermediate throw to Mostert on the wheel route down the right sideline was perfectly placed. Two feet shorter or deeper and it's defended or picked.
Im wondering too how much we turned their revolutionary wrinkle into a detriment. Looked to me like the Bills were using the motion as an offensive key to their defense. So maybe we know were sending a creeper pressure but dont know whos dropping into coverage (probably based on which side the motion is on) and whos coming (probably based off of responsibilities on the back end, so dependent on who went into motion). This type of defense would be killer cause while the defense will all know whats going on like normal (assuming rather heady players), the offense cant get a read cause the defense isnt declared til that final motion which is right before the ball is snapped. Will be asking film geeks about that this week.
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6 minutes ago, JJGauna said:
Bass is clutch, he rarely flounders.
That kick in the rain on grass from 50+ before half was so good. Very high leverage. If he misses then commanders have the ball at the 45 with plenty of time and only down 13-0 and looking to double dip.
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4 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:
The premise here is that the Bills offense is being ‘handicapped’ by needing to help out Brown in pass protection. So…I went to the NFL league-wide receiving stats to see if this would show up. It doesn’t. The Bills have more receivers in the Top 100 than most if not all of the other contenders. For example, the Chiefs don’t have a single receiver in the Top 50. Kincaid has as many receptions as Kelce, who is their top target. Even with the Dolphins hanging 70 points last week, they only have Hill in the Top 50. Once again, it’s easy to be critical of our Bills, but the other 31 teams are far from perfection across the entirety of their rosters.
I agree with this line of thought. Kincaid is top half of the league in receptions for his position and so is Cook. We are getting more production out of non WR than ever. I dont see how were "handicapped." Were number two scoring offense again yet we are "crippled" by our OL or last years OL was a "disaster." Sorta dont understand the logic of saying OL is important (maybe posters are saying OL doesnt matter with JA17 at QB) but our OL is a disaster. The data doesnt support those two things being true.
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8 minutes ago, Utah John said:
The 1999 team's defense WAS great. Bruce Smith was still playing (for the Bills), along with Ted Washington and Sam Cowart, and it was just dominant. I recall telling a co-worker before the playoff game between the Bills and the Titans that the winner was going to the Super Bowl because both teams had such good defenses. I was right, and I think I would also have been right if the Bills had just covered the final kickoff like professionals.
The offense was generally good, too. We had Andre Reed AND Eric Moulds. We had Thurman Thomas, Antowain Smith, and Jonathan Linton (whom we've forgotten about but who was pretty good). The O line was good, with John Fina and Ruben Brown. Unfortunately, we didn't have a dominant QB, and Ralph Wilson forced Wade Phillips to play the wrong one. This led to a defensive struggle throughout the entire game, because the Titans also had excellent personnel. The Bills had a SB-quality team, and I think probably would have won the SB if they'd made it there.
Agreed. But don't overlook the other side. The Bills offense has been running in second gear, which has been good enough to win two games. I'm assuming that Dorsey has a long list of plays he's held in reserve, that will let the O dominate the Dolphin's D. Check the Broncos stats. Russell Wilson had a good game, which was just overshadowed by the collapse of the Denver D. The Bills have a considerably better O than the Broncos do, with more weapons and a better O line. And a better QB of course.
Agree both Miami Defense and our Offense have not been as good as expected. I will say we can at least point to two good defenses for our struggles. Chargers can move the ball, but 20 first downs to the Patriots could be a bit concerning. The best think Miami's defense has going for them is turnovers which can be mecurial (though its our worst offensive attribute).
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What Miami's Offense did against Denver was obviously historic but I think what our Defense did against the commanders is also pretty historic. The strength versus strength battle this week is gonna be fascinating.
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1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said:
No sweat. might just be me, but it hit tough.
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15 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:
pretty rough moment to meme.
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Honestly considering that Commanders have multiple WR options with speed I wouldnt be surprised to see him to start this game (not sure who gets inactivated though). I think hes our counter to teams like Miami that have speedsters.
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We have seen Tre be second in DPOY. If he’s all the way back he’s an easy answer cause he’s in his prime. I also like Milano flying all over the field. Knox has it in his ceiling to be a special player. He has shown growth over his career. Last year he was overcoming the death of his brother (example #88 of why last was such a mess). I could see another step this year from him.
so that’s three more to add to your list of 4. Cases could be made for more good players (Johnson and Davis) in their prime continuing to grow into big stars. Yes I wish we could have more rookie contract players that are easy to project into superstars but we have elite talent at the most important position and a ton of talent in their prime.
We have seen Tre be second in DPOY. If he’s all the way back he’s an easy answer cause he’s in his prime. I also like Milano flying all over the field. Knox has it in his ceiling to be a special player. He has shown growth over his career. Last year he was overcoming the death of his brother (example #88 of why last was such a mess). I could see another step this year from him.
so that’s three more to add to your list of 4. Cases could be made for more good players (Johnson and Davis) in their prime continuing to grow into big stars. Yes I wish we could have more rookie contract players that are easy to project into superstars but we have elite talent at the most important position and a ton of talent in their prime.
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Good analysis but we also became very deep heavy after the injury against the jets. So it makes sense why teams put extra coverage while Saffold got worse by the week.
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1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:
I don't believe in AJE. Hope I'm wrong.
That’s fine. If he puts up 6.5 sacks again he’ll get another contract from someone (probably not us).
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5 minutes ago, Clyde Smith said:
Jets, probably a Robert Salah connection.
Did you miss the part where the unnamed team would pay him what he wants. Sorta exclude the jets with their cap situation.
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4 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:
KJ is on a 2-year contract. If he shows well the first 6 weeks he may stay and Shaq gets cut and maybe PS bound.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/kingsley-jonathan-77605/
So Groot Von and Kingsley Jonathan are 3 players we have not 2 under contract next year? I think that’s why they were ok moving on from Boogie
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20 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:
Why do we need 10 offensive linemen? How is this guy more valuable than Boogie Basham when we only have two DEs under contract for next year? 🤔
Think they like Kingsley Jonathon and while not signed I think the team still has control as a restricted Free Agency.
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The Oversimplified Explanation of What's Wrong with the Bills and Why There's Still Hope
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Are you complaining about high level narratives in a thread titled "oversimplification" sheesh.
Agree 1/4 in RZ is not great and is a dip from what we typically do. If you wanna keep an eye on it sure. Would also say we scored on 6/9 of drives prior to the game being out of hand (shakir TD). That is a great number for a jets d only allows scores on 34% of its drives.
38.5% is league average against a top 5 defense (4/9 after Shakir TD which is good). Why is that a challenge or struggle or whatever misspelling word you were trying to say?
Take away the run by Shakir and we still did better than average against the Jets and the whole 4th quarter we didnt try. In fact you rely a lot on stats after the Shakir TD to make your points (RZ being the exception). Nothing from the offense after the Shakir TD should be used for concern or confidence cause its not very representative.
Its not all sunshine and rainbows for sure, but that performance from Sunday beats the performance from either the Chiefs or Eagles last night. Now we need to see it consistently which has for sure been a problem.