YattaOkasan
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Posts posted by YattaOkasan
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1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:
Chicago is the number 1 rush offense in the league and the Bills are 25th in the league in tackling.
Shoot that must mean our run defense ranks poorly.
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23 hours ago, NewEra said:
To my eye, he’s regressed since he first took over. He’s taken a bunch of bad angles and is a liability vs the pass. He’s ok, but I’m worried about the better passing team going after him.
I agree it feels that way too. I think he showed some of the whiffs on tape earlier and now teams have figured out where/when hes good at coming from depth and when he is not. But agree feels like those players are more common.
3 hours ago, PaattMaann said:Our nickel D has held up against the run for most of the season, don't know why it would magically stop holding up now...
Top 5 in total rushing yards allowed
15th in YPC
Top 10 in TDs allowed via the rush
DVOA run defense top 10
I dunno man, seems to be working. Our issues haven't been because of the nickel, its been missed tackles.
Agree. I think playing nickel will be about personnel and not how much Chicago runs (which is what the poster you replied seemed to imply). If Chicago goes 11, why wouldnt we want Taron out there when a WR has to block him. He is incredibly effective in the run game because of the personnel match up (he even plays against 12).
1 hour ago, Big Turk said:My Turkish Brother!!
That's my Dad's Name! 😃
Diggs is a treasure. It was all there to see when he was traded. He stayed at Maryland to keep his brother out of trouble when he couldve gone to a big school; his brother went to Bama. Amazing some of the things that were said about him.
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Great analysis. Wonder how it will change with 1 seed being the only team that gets a bye now. That so huge to me. Might affect both the 2 seeds that made the Super bowl. This year I think its even more important because then KC will play Cinci (sorta how Cinci didnt have to play both us and KC). The only other matchup im sorta rooting for in the first round (again dependent on us getting the 1st seed) is chargers versus KC. LA has been really close both games this year and are starting to get healthy (though they would still probably blow it).
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7 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:
I will never forget Bradshaw saying Josh was not accurate enough and "never would be". F him. You don't see him say a word about Allen now, bc he eats crow every time it somes up
Bradshaw is def not worth listening too. His best completion percentage was 62.5%. He doesnt know what it takes to be accurate. His TD % is good at 5.4% (a tick over Josh's career 5.3), but his INT % is putrid at 5.4%. Overall, he has a below average HoF score for someone thats in (from PFR) and his most famous play is a lucky bounce. Combined he played with an all time great defense I think he gets much more respect than he deserves.
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18 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
If you're talking about the first play Warner diagrams, which was the Bills 2nd drive, it's 1st and 10 to McKenzie and that's Diggs at the sticks.
Warner's point is that by the time Allen manipulates the CB with his eyes to come up on Diggs and open McKenzie, the safety has closed.
You're also I think missing Warner's point about Allen moving right. His point is that because there's a guy spying Allen, when Allen rolls right unnecessarily (protection is good), he takes the spy right into Singletary's path and cancels what would otherwise be an easy throw over the middle of the field with lots of space for Singletary to get the touch. Count noses: Warner is correct, there is absolutely NOBODY HOME who could prevent it, IF Allen stays in the pocket and maybe even looks left a little to freeze the spy.
It's great Allen completes the "dime" to Morris, and it's 1st and 10 so as long as Allen doesn't throw a pick we have 2 more shots if he doesn't. But it's no way poor analysis by Warner. We complain all the time about our drives in the red zone stalling out and having to settle for FG.
Warner is correctly pointing out the easy shot the play is designed to scheme open against that defense, and how Allen is taking that very easy shot away from himself by rolling to the R when he doesn't have to.
You don't have to agree with Warner all the time (I don't), but I'm surprised you can't even be open minded enough to give him a full listen. He 100% Knows His Ball. He watches Josh Allen a lot - I would say at this point he's even somewhat fascinated with Allen because of Josh's abilities to do things he knows he couldn't have done. But that doesn't mean he doesn't see different choices Allen could make that would be easier and sometimes higher % thus better.
I agree the easy shot is to Singeltary on this play. I dont agree that Josh can make this play if he stays in the pocket as Warner says. If he stays in the pocket why is the spy gonna move. I think Josh opens Singeltary up by moving.
Overall, agree with your other posts that he does a good job identifying missed opportunities like the McK above. I also liked the end of half play (where he shows the high low that should be thrown) and the strip sack where Beasely is wide open.
I wholly disagree with the TD to Knox. That was exactly the right play. The outside guys are playing 3 on 2. He spent some time talking about throwing to those routes when Knox was the right read all day. Additionally, I dont know that Warner is appreciating the disguised coverage that Josh sees (which is weird cause im sure Warner saw it too). I dont think the 40 yarder to Knox was MOFC but rolled into MOFO after the snap. This negates some of his analysis on that play.
Overall though I think Warner does a good job finding some of the meat on the bone, but think some of the other posters arent off when they say Warner is overly critical of Josh.
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3 hours ago, Heitz said:
Guessing this game will not be on TV in New England (where I'll be for the holidays) - better get work on finding an NFL bar in Rhode Island...
its a saturday game so i think it should be available. theres no other games at this time so I dont think youll get bumped. you may need nfl network though.
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1 hour ago, Nineforty said:
And if you take it a step further (pun unintended), someone (my brain initially) will say, "yeah but once the receiver sticks his foot in ground to cut, the defender will have to react and because of the snow, his reaction and time it takes to cut/accelerate will be slower than usual."
To which I reply, wouldn't the receivers' cut be slower than usual as well (and what if the receiver slips due to surface? Advantage defense.)
Is this just something everyone has said for so long? Or is there a valid counterpoint?
I think separation stats would answer this. They are a bit subjective but compare snow games to other games played by the same team that season. That would be a good indication if the offense is getting a separation advantage. I don’t have access to the stats
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8 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
How many of them are misses where he shoots the gap in the backfield and misses the tackle due to a sudden move by the RB who is then swarmed under by other Bills that get there due to Milano disrupting the play initially? I feel like this is what I have seen a lot of in terms of missed tackles from Milano which are really inconsequential mostly.
Unclear. I would also say that being aggressive and making plays is Milanos role so I can live with a higher missed tackle % than Edmunds whos role is to clean things up more. It has just been frustrating when folks have said in the past that Edmunds misses tackles (he is doing his best by the metric this year) more than Milano when thats not really apparent.
5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:lol. everyone is negging on our skill players but doesnt realize our offense is outperforming the chargers. I get that they have been banged up, but its illogical to say that Herbert is better than Josh and their skill players are better yet we have better offensive out put. Some cognitive dissonance there
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Ive been very ambivalent about potential Hyde return. Obviously want him back on the field but also want him healthy long term. Those things are sorta fighting each other in my head. I think the place I have settled is that would like him to return behind Damar. That way he doesnt have to overplay as Damar is doing well, but if Damar gets nicked up we feel GREAT about our back up. At that point he could take over starter duties again.
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15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
Do you know where is Marino getting his numbers and how he decides what is or isn't acceptable? The Bills do have the #2 defense for points against, #9 for yards given up, #4 for turnovers. So in terms of results, what exactly is "unacceptable"?
That has to be some stuff like where some outfit (PFF?) gave Milano a very low grade for the KC game because he wasn't making tackles. Except in the KC game, Milano's assignment was to shadow Mahomes and once he was flushed to one side, contain/pressure/tackle him. So no, he wasn't running around covering short routes or minding a gap to tackle an RB, but to observers who understood his assignment, he Killed it.
If anyone has actually watched how Milano has been playing, then uses "unacceptable" to describe it, I gotta say, I kinda question how much they know Ball.
I dont know where. He may mention in his podcasts this week (I think it was herd mentality). His acceptable is his feeling. I think it makes sense. 1 in every 5 attempts is a lot of misses (probably 2-3/game for a LB), 1 in every 10 seems more palatable (probably only 1 for a LB). I dont know how they contextualize these things and agree its important. If there are others about to swallow someone up, then a missed tackle doesnt matter as much as a missed one in your gap and theres noone else to clean up or one in the open field without anyone else nearby.
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56 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:
Pro Football Reference has Milano (Missed Tackles - 13.5%) a total of 12 missed tackles.
Bills overall at 7.5%.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022_advanced.htm#all_advanced_defense
Thanks. I have Damar Hamlin with more by my eye than PFR (5.9%). Apparently PFF (not that they are great) had him at 14 missed tackles through 12 weeks so there is some subjectivity to all this (as I mentioned). Would like to know where Marino got his numbers
https://t.co/vNJwxghrtz" / Twitter
24 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:The Dolphins passing game is the short to intermediate routes over the middle. The weather won’t affect them as much as it will the Bills. Allen likes to push the ball downfield and outside the numbers. It’s why he struggles in poor weather.
Tua is listed at PFR as second in intended air yards per target. I dont think its fair to say he throws just short and intermediate (agree on the over the middle). The dolphins run an explosive pass game that wants to stretch you vertically. Working in the middle of the field mitigates this some, but I suspect Frazier is gonna take that away. I think the elements could really affect Tua if hes trying to throw deep and outside.
Also Josh struggles in poor weather? Please review the WC game against the Pats and come to the same conclusion
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5 minutes ago, jletha said:
The ole "Derek Jeter stat padding". Cant be given an error if you dont get your glove on the ball.
Is the Milano tackle stat broken down by % of total tackle attempts?
Yes its ~15% for Milano. Joe Marino has 10% as his acceptable level. I think Tremaine was a bit lower than 10%. As a team I dont think we have a good number.
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43 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
I would like to know where that "missed tackles" stat comes from and how it is calculated
I have a suspicion that yes, Milano misses more tackles than anyone else on the team because he's making it into position to try to tackle guys who were NOT his assignment, more than anyone else on the team.
It sounds as though potentially, it could be somewhat analogous to PFF's stats on OL where they actually don't know the blocking assignments and charge guys with a whiff when it actually was the other guy's job and they just tried to bail us out.
I think there are a few people that track it. For sure its a bit subjective. However, there seems to be good agreement that Milano has an above average missed tackled rate (not good). Hes not the worst. Hamlin is the one I think needs to be better (~20% iirc) for sure. Dane could serve to be better as well, but they have managed Tre having a high missed tackle rate (though he is great in coverage where Dane is not). Poyer is also missing at a higher clip than normal this year, but I forgive him since hes playing through an elbow injury.
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41 minutes ago, Son of a K-Gun said:
Well played...if he keeps it up I guess he'll just be Ike 'ger
Beasley YAC!
Beasley was not a YAC guy with us at the end of his time. Only 3.7 yards per catch is very low. He is a reliable option to catch the ball which is why i want him. Give Josh that security blanket so when he needs a play to go well he can sling one to Beasley with ease. But after the catch I dont expect much from him.
footballoutsiders.com/player/39534/cole-beasley
9 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:I think realistically we have to win out for the #1 seed. I think the tough game will be Cinci unless we falter to someone we should beat easily, a la Jax last year. Cinci I think will be about a 4 1/2 pt favorite versus us.
I hope he doesnt because Tua taking a hit that hard might kill him and i am not exaggerating.
Maybe but we were favorites against Mahomes in KC. Bengals are hot but i wouldnt be surprised to see us as favorites
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3 hours ago, GottaRun said:
Anyone know if Miami flew back home after both West coast games? Be rough to fly home Monday after the Sunday night game and then fly to Buffalo Friday for Saturday night's game, be even rougher if they did the West coast flight the week before too.
They did! I was so happy when they flexed us a day early. i think they got in from the week away at 7AM yesterday. The 3 road games in a row has been discussed, but I think this is a big factor. Go on the road to "bond" and fall on your face in back to back games. Now you got to come back to your family, get things in order, and prepare for the bills. hoping this really wears on them.
https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins/news/miami-dolphins-ready-for-big-california-trip
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13 minutes ago, Limeaid said:
He did not NEED to go to hospital or he would have gone during game.
Are you saying JEST coaches were negligent and should be penalized?
He did go to the hospital after the game. so youre right and i can edit to say "why the jets trainers thought he should go to the hospital after the game" rather than "he had to go."
Its not a head issue so if he says he wants to play through the pain then noone is negligent.
Respect the nit picking, but was there a harder hit on white? really wanna make sure im remember it correctly
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3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
And if Josh fumbles in the rain or throws an INT...2 things he has struggled with this year...then what? Jets have a short field, over a minute to go, and 3 timeouts.
I am not against kill shots...but there is context to every one of them, and they are not all equal. Our Defense was playing stout. Their defense was also playing stout, and the strength of their D is pass defense, especially with Q. Williams out of the game.
You take a risk on a kill shot there when you fear you won't be able to keep the other team from driving the whole field with 40 seconds and no timeouts. There was no reason to fear that from the Jets. There was 100% reason to fear we could turn the ball over or not complete the pass given we struggled in bad weather all game to pass the ball again on this strong pass defense.
This kill shot, under these circumstances was a mistake. And that is coming from me who is about as aggressive as it gets when it comes to taking chances in football. This was a moment in the game where the risk out weighed the reward given the likely hood of the Jets ability to drive the field with no timeouts in 40 seconds was much lower than the risk of turning the ball over or giving the Jets a little more help to drive the field by giving them a free timeout.
Now with your other post I think you need to weigh the risk of punting in that weather. Considering we had one blocked already that game and Josh has been fine on designed roll outs I think the risk of the punt may have been the worry versus the risk of a TO and or them moving the ball on us after the punt (pretty much 0% with our without a TO).
Lastly, I dont think McD said everything was fine with the kick after 13 seconds. I though he very quickly said there was a miscommunication on that and he took fault. This play sounded like no miscommunication (the lead up to these two plays was very different, OMG we scored a TD what we do vs we wanna take a shot after we get the ball)
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2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Sorry, but 48 seconds and a timeout is something that could have screwed us, but our defense stepped up. That is enough time to tie a game.
It would have been a lot better to give them the ball back with no timeouts and have to go the length of the field. It would have been better to run the ball on first and pick up yards so its not 2nd and 10 and now being forced to run the ball 2 straight downs to make them use 2 of their 3 timeouts.
By all accounts, the pass on first down literally opens up the possibility to lose the game, even if it works. You can still get sacked, you can throw a pick, you can have an incompletion...all of which are terrible outcomes compared to the ONLY positive outcome of a completed pass for over 10 yards and a first down. A short pass does nothing a run couldn't do, it only helps if it goes for over 10 yards. Any other result makes the play call a mistake.
So no disrespect, but I wholeheartedly disagree that this was a good choice. If Allen fumbles or throws a pick, 2 things he has struggled with this year, then now they have 3 timeouts over a minute to go and a short field. The reward was not worth the risk, especially against a stong defense and with how well our defense was playing.
When your defense is playing that well, you do not need to risk the game for a kill shot. You make them use the 3 timeouts, hope you run for a first down anyway and it's a mute point, and if not then punt the ball to the opposite side of the field and make them drive on your defense with no timeouts and 40ish seconds left in the game.
I like alot of your post but youre all over the place here. Why is a sack bad if youre so concerned with stopping the clock? I think thats why the call is great cause josh can run and take care of the ball rather than be in the pocket where fumbles/picks are much more likely.
you dont think we should take a kill shot at all fine. McD is on the headset too. McD could stop Dorsey if he disagreed. McD was ok with taking a shot too which is why Dorsey should not and will not be fired (shees).
If we wanna go down the rabbit hole of things that could happen (as you did with picks and fumbles and lions and tigers and bears oh my!), then consider we had a punt blocked in that game already. I think the risk of punt block yesterday was greater than the risk of josh not taking care of the ball on a roll out (designed roll outs have not been an issue for TOs).
How do you think 46 seconds, 1 TO, and 79 yards could have screwed us in that weather? If they were down a field goal im with you make them get in range without a TO. As it was they took 16 seconds with only 1 attempt going beyond the sticks. They werent gonna be able to get to the endzone if they completed all those and got OB. Again I like a lot of the things you post but I think youre over the top on it. You disagree fine; but pretty obviously McD was fine with the call and it did not "Put his job in jeopardy"
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8 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:
Milano’s hit? Just sidelined their QB for a little while. Hell, White was hit harder later.
picking a nit. Who hit him harder? That was by far the hardest hit of the game and was probably why he had to go to hospital.
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2 hours ago, ddaryl said:
Its ok to call a spade a spade,
This offese is struggling for consistency.... This year is about winning the SB... so anything that might keep us from getting there is being discussed. This is not being spoiled, this is having expectations for this franchise.... I'm concerned
Discussion is giving this thread too much credit. It literally says Dorsey should be fired. Thats not happening. We could be discussing run game or short passing, but the premise that Dorsey should be fired is silly and makes this place hard to swallow.
1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:Dorsey put his job in jeopardy when we had the game in hand with an 8 point lead and a first down with just over a minute left in the game...but decided to PASS the ball on first down despite the fact the Jets had ALL THREE TIMEOUTS. WTF is this utterly stupid move. And it totally screwed us, but thankfully our defense bailed us out again.
We actually punted with enough time and ONE TIMEOUT still for the Jets to give them a LEGIT shot to send that game to OT. It was one of the worst calls all season.
Roll Josh out...fine...FAKE the pass and see if he can get some chunk yards and STAY IN BOUNDS. DO NOT under any circumstance stop the clock for the Jets without FIRST getting a FIRST down. This is football 101.
IF...and ONLY if...its third down and you want to try and end the game right there, sure take a gamble on a pass, BUT NEVER on first down. We could have run for a first down and never even risked it.
UNBELIEVABLE. That alone...that play call...could have cost us this game. Dorsey in my eyes has been a liability this year with his lack of creativity and adjustments, and lack of consistency in layering in the run game even when we are having success with it.
I'm fine with the kill shot. It did NOT totally screw us. Jets got the ball with 46 seconds left to go get a TD. Thats a long shot. ESPN win % had us > 98% after that play. Also he did roll out Jos,h and Josh decided to throw the ball. He gave Josh the option to throw which Im fine with it. I would argue the kill shot on 1st down makes more sense than 3rd down when teams are expecting it more (it is creative at least sheesh). I would like to see the run more but wow this post.
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16 hours ago, buffblue said:
Kind of agree here, but it's not just Josh being a little gun shy. Can you honestly remember a game where our offense schemed guys open with ease? Even when we were rolling, it was all on Allen. Dorsey has been highly underwhelming
not going through the rest of this thread cause it is depressing but yes i remember a game. Last game against the jets. We schemed John Brown open deep and he couldnt make a play on a slightly underthrown ball that had DPI. Diggs was open across the middle for maybe a TD but Josh missed him on the first drive. Later we got Diggs unguarded in the slot and ran a curl. It got tackled pretty easily, but later in the game we see the whip route from the same formation. Also the Play action pass to Davis that set up first and goal on the second TD was scheming a person open. Thats a lot of schemed open peeps (I think there may have been more). Execution has been a problem. we had what 5 dropped passes. Dorsey hasn't been perfect but hes been fine.
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10 hours ago, JDubya76 said:
Who was it that said when Davis motions back into the line it is always a run?
Not sure but it’s a common thing that most teams do. Motion your biggest WR into the box to get another blocker at the expensive of bringing in a CB (maybe). Dorsey has used this to set up for big plays too. See first TD of the year for one
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56 minutes ago, SCBills said:
Interesting that Gabe was part of the recruiting dinner.
Makes me believe he’s in the long term plans of this team.
Gabe is known to be a big OBJ fan. I think he would be there no matter what as he has stylized his game after him and idolizes him.
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17 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:
Next Gen Stats
@NextGenStats
Josh Allen was 0.3 yards from the sideline on this 8-yard TD pass, the 2nd-closest to the sideline on a completion in the NGS era. Since 2016, there have been four completions with a release within a yard of the sideline; Allen has three of them. #BUFvsNE | Powered by
@awscloud
Just amazing - play is not over until its over
When I see all the coverage from that play last weekend I sorta shrug and think people should see what he did to the Jets at the end of last year. Stiff arming Quinen Williams and then shrugging off his brother to throw to diggs is still the most bonkers play I have ever seen a QB make.
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Comic Book Bills
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Tre is a great spider man. Glad they didn’t complicate it with dion. Captain rocket seems a bit better for josh. Overall was pretty good “original” designs. I might need a copy