YattaOkasan
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Posts posted by YattaOkasan
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1 hour ago, PBF81 said:
Not the point. Frazier leaving was hardly a bold move by McD that grabbed the bull by the horns while assessing responsibility for our abysmal playoff performance(s).
Let's not circumvent the original point.
And no, it sounds like more of a very weak action by someone that's supposed to be ensuring that this team puts its best foot forward season to season and week to week, particularly in the playoffs. This just in, but Frazier's been here for 6 seasons. If Frazier was the issue, why did it take so long, and then why was the entire thing half shrouded in secrecy.
Either way, so you then think that firing a position coach for a unit that's been the team's strength showed top-notch resolve and determination in correcting our playoff woes? LOL ... really? Because that's the implication. That's fine if so, I have no issues with it other than being laughable as I view it. Again, I'm hardly the only one on that as many called it out.
IMO it was a weak response by a head coach that clearly didn't want to implicate his own DC, for who knows which of several logical reasons.
I disagree that Salgado was the coach for the team's strength. As mentioned multiple times, he took over the safety coach duties in 2022. Bobby Babich was the safety coach from 2017 to 2021 when the unit played its best. I dont know how you have perspective on resolve or determination from Salgado. I find your defense of Salgado as the coach for the teams strength to be laughable when it clearly became a strength under someone else.
The original point from our discussion was McD throwing people under the bus. Maybe the reason he kept Frazier here for 6 seasons was cause he wanted to support him to his next head coaching job which ultimately never came. As you noted the whole thing was shrouded in secrecy likely cause they didnt want to throw him under the bus. Nothing about how they handled Frazier indicates a willingness to throw someone under the bus.
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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I suppose my question on the data is as above, how are sites recording it? Is ostensibly 12 personnel that then comes and lines up in 21 recorded as 12 or 21?
Yea when I say tight end I mean a traditional Y on the end of the line of scrimmage. An F to my thought is more of an H-Back who is going to line up in the backfield, in the slot and occasionally inline - I'm not sure I really see Kincaid doing that either. I think he is going to play the vast majority of his snaps in the slot. 25% is my top end for him playing on the end of the line. I expect it will be a little below that.
I think Knox will continue to be on the field 80% of the snaps or more. He averages about 85% the past two years when healthy. It might take a little dip, but I don't think it will dip much.
I think its purely positional and not where they line up. I thought Kincaid had some of the H-back type work at Utah. I know Knox has done a fair bit of that too. Agree Knox shouldnt see his snap count dip too much. Still trying to settle out how much.
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On 7/24/2023 at 6:56 PM, PBF81 said:
LOL, because yeah, firing the S's Coach was great corrective action. I can see how one would need to be Bill Polian to figure that out. LOL
Have you considered that Frazier leaving was his corrective action? If that was you would have to agree he didnt throw him under the bus. Overall the departure of Frazier is a really great counter point of McD not throwing people under the bus. He could've slammed the defense but didnt.
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17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
In terms of do I think Kincaid and Knox will both be out there more than 40%? Yes. I repeat though they will be in a traditional 11 formation. Diggs and Davis wide, Kincaid in the slot, Knox at tight end. I doubt Dalton Kincaid plays more than maximum 25% of his snaps as a tight end as a rookie, he just isn't that kind of player. And the Bills use a conventional tight end on about 85% of their plays. I expect 12 to be their base personnel. I just don't expect them to run a lot of traditional 12 formation stuff. They are going to play 3 wides, Kincaid is just going to be one of them.
I agree it will look like more traditional 11 and we shouldnt expect Kincaid with his hand in the dirt. Couldnt find 2022 data easily but 40% 12 personnel wouldve put us 2nd in that personnel grouping for 2021 (think league jumped in its usage though in 2022). That would be a big jump considering we were second lowest usage last year from what I remember from podcasts. Though I will cede that we had a fair bit of 21 personnel with Gilliam that can easily become 12.
For the 25% of snaps as "tight end" (assume you just mean the "Y" tight end. "F" is still a tight end to me too but different as you are alluding to) do you think thats with Knox on the field or off? Sounds like we might see it really similar if you have Kincaid's snaps as 40% in 12 and 25% in 11 (I have it as 30% and 30%). Appreciate you expanding on your thoughts here and just your general contributions to this community.
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3 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:
First, the situation is 4th and 8. Fairly short yardage where route running, size, hands and quickness mean more than straight-line speed.
Second, Kincaid is more of a big slot WR than a TE, so that's not typical 12 personnel.Diggs is a given. I maintain Kincaid is the second-best pass catcher in this down and distance. Do you feel there are two receivers on this team better than Knox for fourth and 8? If you said Sherfield and Harty, I might listen. I simply don't trust Davis' route running that tight or his hands. If it were fourth and 20, maybe.
Third, Allen is threat to run with 8 yards to go and big bodies will be better blockers. Like Knox.
I'm not tied to Knox but I am staunch in my belief that Kincaid is one of the two or three best wide receivers on this team for that down and distance. You will see.
Its still a clear passing down so they will not get the matchups they would get in a passing or running down. I think Sherfield and Harty are both better separators (Davis potentially too) against the personnel that would be seen on this type of down. I am up and down on the big bodies. I see what youre saying but I wonder if the data supports that logic (does it matter or does Josh run well enough no matter how many TEs). I agree that Kincaid is gonna be one of our best pass catchers. Knox being in for protection is part of the reason I could see for why he would be on the field.
3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:Knox separated better than all our receivers except Diggs last year by NextGen stats. Now okay, we have added Sherfield and Harty etc... maybe they separate better, but until I see it proven otherwise, yes, I think Knox and Kincaid will separate better than every receiver except Diggs. Will we be in 12 a lot of the time? I think our personnel grouping will be 12 a lot, yes. I think formation wise it will still look like we are in a lot of 11. If we are taking Knox off the field to get Kincaid on the field or not using Kincaid because we have Knox then the Bills screwed the pooch in April. I think Brandon Beane will be desperate not to have another season where his first round pick struggles to get on the field. When that happens back to back years eyes inevitably go to the General Manager's office.
Thanks. I agree that 12 usage will increase a ton I just hesitate to say it will be the majority or plurality (11 is my expectation). Thus I think in this clear passing down situation it would be 11. As I mentioned above I could get on board with the idea that Knox needs to help block before leaking out. Guess the follow up is how much 12 do you think we run? Greater than 40%?
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5 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:
Diggs, Kincaid, Knox, and Sherfield (physicality, best blocking WR according to PFF I read, and good hands).
Fifth guy could be Harris for blocking (if he has hands too) or maybe Harty for his quickness.
My sanity check applies to everyone saying Kincaid and Knox for this hypothetical. If youre calling 12 personnel in this clear passing situation, do you think we are a majority 12 personnel team now? I would expect us to put our best passing options on the field a majority of the time, and if 12 personnel is the grouping for this clear passing down then arent you saying well be a majority 12 personnel team? I dont see us as a majority 12 personnel team yet (hoping for 25%+ which puts us top half of the league)
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7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
They are both among our four best receiving weapons.
Hmm... my intrigue in 12 personnel is cause of the match up problem it creates. That personnel grouping was alluded to earlier in this thread that it would "stress" the defense. Are both Kincaid/Knox really gonna be better than WR3 at getting open on a clear passing down? Youre saying yes cause they are our four best receiving options. From that logic, can you tell me if you expect us to be in 12 personnel the majority of the time? I just dont see that happening this year.
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29 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
I don't think it's the wrong example at all. Someone should have been fired after that, OR McD should have come clean that it was truly his fault instead of "accepting responsibility" while implying that it was someone else's, thereby hanging Frazier out to dry like he did.
But to pick on the coach whose entire starting unit was unavailable to start in 20 of 32 starts between them, while still performing well with backups, to me is unconscionable. It also reinforces the point made.
Your point completely ignores that and the original point that I made. It doesn't matter that McD gave him a shot, he's also given a bunch of coaches that haven't anteed up shots, but they were from Carolina with him and they weren't fired.
And I mean really, what, it was Salgado's coaching that caused us to lose? LOL That's a ridiculous proposition.
IMO McD doesn't have what it takes to get rid of coaches that aren't performing.
This season he has most of his former staff at Carolina under him, he's successfully transition their coaching staff from 2011-2016 to Buffalo for the most part. Count me in among those that think that this is closer to not working out for him than it is for working out for him, but this season will certainly tell.
At least it seems to be a growing mindset that should we underperform again that there won't be anywhere for him to assess blame besides himself. ... which will be refreshing if he can't perform up to standards and the talent that he has.
By implication you see that the Safeties coach was more responsible than any other for our poor playoffs performance. I have no idea how that's rational.
Otherwise, see my post above.
So your point is he was fired (unfairly in your opinion) and thats throwing him under the bus. I dont see McD pointing the finger at him or anything. They let go a coach they had put time and effort into developing so you just conclude that its to throw him under the bus? Will note your opinion for how the season works out.
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1 minute ago, NewEra said:
I should’ve been more specific. “The vaunted 3 man rush on 3rd and 20+”
the 3 man rush that stifles those guys replace a pass rusher with a spy. On 3rd and 20+ the qb running for the 1st down would be the least of my worries (while possible, it’s not what worries me).
No sweat. I think 3 was a mistake in the situation referenced here but would not have blitzed. Ultimately, I also put this on the players though (gotta know down and distance). Agree with your comment of the spy.
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1 hour ago, NewEra said:
The vaunted 3 man rush 🤦🏻♂️
It works against Mahomes really well. I hope we continue using it against him and Burrow.
31 minutes ago, PBF81 said:LOL, seriously?
How about firing Jim Salgado after our playoff losses this season, the Safeties coach, who did nothing wrong in his coaching tenure here, his only stint I think. ... other than not ever having coached in Carolina that is. Hell, he's arguably had the best unit on the team on McD's watch.And 13-seconds? LMAO What a wimp on that! Saying he takes responsibility with strong undertones that he wasn't really responsible.
As someone else has pointed out several times, if Frasier was that big of an issue on defense, then why was he here for 6 seasons as the DC. So either McD's not competent in that, or he too threw Frasier under the bus. We'll never know because despite the "high character" veil, he doesn't practice it himself when discussing the team.
We'll see what happens this season otherwise, but IMO the expectations are too lofty.
McD sorta gave that guy his only shot in the NFL though right? If anything I think Salgado would love McD considering his growth from Defensive Asst (2017-2019), Nickel Coach (2020-2021, this is a position that McD created), and Safety Coach (2022) with the Bills. Is parting ways with a coach throwing them under the bus (I dont see any comments from McD about him even)? Not disagreeing that someone has been thrown under the bus (ST coach was what I thought you would use), but this seems like the wrong example.
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2 hours ago, Beck Water said:
So the TB% was 59.7% in the NFL last season per pro-football reference
1013 returns, out of 2698 kickoffs, 37.5% kickoffs returned so (?) 2.8% fair catch?
Is the new rule that a fair catch anywhere comes out to the 25 yd line? If so I would think the NFL would be trying to increase the number of fair catches
Your math looks good to me and yes the intention is to have more fair catches. But I dont think its as simple as no more KR ever again (not saying you said that, but someone else did). If fair catch goes up 5% then 1/3 kickoffs is a return. Thats still quite a few to the point where I would say its hyperbolic to say it doesnt matter (agian not you saying that).
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For 4th and 8 I am not sure I have both Knox and Kincaid out there. Need more receiving ability imo. Yes 12 puts stress on a defense but thats if they think youll run it. Nobody is gonna think well run on 4th and 8. I have Diggs, Davis, Harty, Knox. If its 4th and 4 or less then yes give me 12 personnel with Kincaid in for Harty.
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1 minute ago, eball said:
Don't the new rules in the KO game lessen even further the need for a "dynamic" return game?
Sucks for Hines...particularly since he was doing nothing wrong and some moron hit him.
I dont think so. Punts are unchanged and I think I heard Joe Marino said NCAA saw a ~5% increase in touchbacks when they did this rule and thats the goal of the NFL. I think you would still see a return ~50% of the time. Additionally if teams are dropping coverage players (cause they think KRs dont matter) a really good return unit could take advantage.
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I agree he’s worth keeping an eye on.
First his dad was a good coach that urlacher had introduce him for the HoF.
Second he was asst defensive back coach (2017) and safeties coach (2018-2021) during Dr Poyer and Mr Hyde’s ascension to best safety duo in franchise history (dare I say league history?).
Third both tremaine edmunds and Matt Milano had their best years in his first year as LB coach.
I am very excited for him as a coach.
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Deonte Harty is mine. I think he works his way onto the field and becomes a weapon we are clamoring for more of.
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2 hours ago, Herb Nightly said:
What? If you sign a player, he can't negotiate with other teams. I think he would quickly get poached off the PS and as for returning to Buffalo, that ship has probably sailed.
Figured if there was an exception to the rule this could be it. but i understand.
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I know we have sam martin but little surprised the Bills didnt sign him and allow him to still negotiate with other teams (maybe NFL doesnt have a process for that either). Maybe it was offered and declined. But at least he could be on PS. not as good as being a starting punter but start to give back some of what was lost.
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While were flaming the OL any thoughts on pro football reference giving this years OL a better pressure percent than previous years? or that it was top 5 for pressure%? i hesitate with these type of stats that require some evaluation but found it striking. Dont think they are top 5 but think they have been better than previous years. I think we have some recency bias that causes us to perceive it different (2022 the OL fell off and 2021 the OL grew stronger).
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/advanced.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/advanced.htm
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/advanced.htm
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Would add 2020 playoff game against colts. thought the bills got outplayed that game but Josh saved us (he did have a late fumble that we recovered).... That broke the playoff win drought so i think that context puts it on my list
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15 hours ago, msw2112 said:
Houston seems like good fit for the Bills on a short-term deal, if they can come to terms. Obviously, the Bills don't have a lot of cash to spend, but they do present one of the better opportunties to win a championship. I suspect Von Miller won't be ready (or at least not 100%) until later in the season, so this would be a huge help until Miller gets back and having both of them on the field later in the season could cause some major challenges for opposing offenses. This isn't just a "sign him because he's available and we've heard of him" type of deal. This guy is available and could really be a difference maker without breaking the bank. Unfortunately, the bank might already be closed.
I don't think that the other two DEs we recently signed would preclude us from signing Houston. Those guys are camp bodies/kicking-the-tires types. Neither is going to be paid much and both are long shots to make the team.
Agree they dont preclude us from signing Houston. But I think they have a decent shot of making the roster. Assuming Von is on the PUP to start and they carry 5 DE (how many they carried at times last year) then they just need to beat Kingsley Jonathon. If only 4 DE on active roster then either has to beat out Boogie Basham. I don't think either of them beating Boogie Basham is that much of a long shot let alone Kingsley Jonathon.
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Agree with a lot of the thoughts: Bills too low but not top 10. Would add that considering how much production Allen has with our WR you have to have him super high on QB rankings. Def ahead of Burrow considering their weapons.
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5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Then take the 2nd round talent at a game changing position. There are several edge rushers still on the board. Jalin Hyatt is available even though he isn't listed as an option. The drop off from one of those edge rushers or WRs to the same position group at pick 59 is going to be a lot more than the drop off from Schmitz to one of the centers available at pick 59.
Humphrey was a bottom 2nd round pick. Are you saying we should have taken him in the 1st over Rousseau? No way I would make that trade even today. Linderbaum is a solid player, on a team that is massively deficient at skill positions and has needs all along the DL.
There's also the unwritten assumption that Schmitz will become a good player. That isn't necessarily true.
Again I'm fine with the player if he's drafted at the appropriate range of his value. As it is I'm not a fan of 24 year old rookies, and for some reason there's a bunch of them in the draft this year. A 24 year old at a less valuable position is a really poor use of a 1st round pick IMO.
Is the reason for the number of 24 year olds this draft because of the extra year during covid?
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5 minutes ago, NeverOutNick said:
this is the inside gossip of what the Cardinals actually offered:“You don’t have to do it this second if you want to see who is coming up on the board for the bills but the Cardinals are willing to offer you DeAndre Hopkins the number 34 pick in the 2023 NFL draft and we will eat $8 million of his $19 million contract this year by giving him a signing bonus before we trade him. This is the same about it would cost us to release him outright so we’re ok doing it for:
Your 2023 #27 pick in this draft and Ed Oliver”
Thanks. I do think this is how it gets done. A simple restructure by the cardinals to eat money. Also appreciate you indicating conversations beforehand because that also makes it easier to get done during the draft. Based of that I guess it would be the Bills wanting to see who is there at 27 (OMG Im still taking Nolan Smith and would be happy Beane didnt take the trade yet).
3 minutes ago, BillsFanInRaleigh said:Dude...if Nolan Smith is there at 27 you make that pick. Every single time.
Yeah I think you have to. Board seems preoccupied with idea of needing another weapon versus some pretty glaring concerns at edge.
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From Joe Marino's chart last night its a late third for DHop. Also am wondering abit about the how of that deal. would need to agree to a restructure during the draft or cardinals would have to eat cap. We can't just take him on our roster without some financials working through right? seems tough to do while on the clock. I put nolan smith but would love DHop too.
Rewatching the Week 3 Dolphins game
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by YattaOkasan
The reason Salgado is being discussed is when asked for an example of McD "throwing someone under the bus", you brought up Salgado (see below). So yes you very much did say McD was blaming him.
As for when corrective action was/is taken and why; I dont think we'll know for a long time. This team is incredibly tight lipped. I dont think you should then fill in those gaps with whatever you want.
The bolded still does not make sense. I dont know how you could say McD threw Frasier under the bus in anyway. As you mention he kept him around for 6 seasons and parted with him in very mysterious terms. While were talking about it so long; what bus was coming for McD. That phrase is typically deployed when someone is about to be in big trouble. I dont think McD was in any hot seat with management after the season (see recent extension); thus, the only "bus" would be in the media. And again McD didnt put blame on Frazier (or Salgado) in the media.