YattaOkasan
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Posts posted by YattaOkasan
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54 minutes ago, bobobonators said:
Should Elam be matched up against Chase? Or we going with White?We play zone so it depends on where he
lines up. I don’t expect anyone to follow chase.
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6 minutes ago, NewEra said:
Easy- Confuse Burrow with a great defensive game plan. Players making plays on 3rd down. It’s football.
NE held them to 22
Cleveland held them to 23 and 13.
Tennessee held them to 20.
Baltimore held them to 17.
Dallas held them to 17
pittsburgh held them to 20
thats 7 of 15 games they’ve been held to 23 or under. But we can’t stop them? We can. We just have to have the right game plan and execute it.
That TB game was crazy too. Can’t believe they are getting so much credit for what was a TB implosion
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2 minutes ago, Chaos said:
Bengals win and they likely end up second seed with the Bills as third. Playoffs go through Cincy then. Bills win and Cincy has to go through KC and Buffalo on the road. Not sure why you don’t understand how a win meaningfully improves the bengals position.
The talk of 1 seed for Cinci still feels off to me. Maybe McD has gotten to me but take care of your division first. I hear bengals talking about the 1 seed and it sorta gets me excited. Missing the 1 seed is not the end of the world but losing the division would be. I find it interesting that they are more focused on the shiny 1 seed then the more critical division.
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1 hour ago, finn said:
From all I can gather and what I know about the Bills, I would say, objectively, the Bengals are a nightmare matchup for the Bills defense. Burrow's fast release negates our strong DL, and although I trust our LBs to take away the short game, their three excellent receivers will be a problem for the Bills weakened secondary. To be blunt, I don't see how the Bills can stop them.
On offense, I admire their DC's ability to be creative and to adjust on the fly. You don't see those qualities as much as you'd expect. And I'm worried that he will expose the Bills weak line and reliance on Diggs. If I stopped there, I'd say the Bengals win this game pretty easily.
But there's an X factor: We have a Hulk. The league has never seen a player like Josh Allen. I think he will will this team to victory no matter what the Bengals throw at him.
Go watch the first half of the TB game by the bengals. Cinci didn’t get to TB territory until the 2 minute drill. It wasn’t anything too flukey like in the NE game. Disguise coverage and drop non coverage players. Also burrow has had a bit of trouble with 8 man coverage. Few ways to stop them. These are all things we have done before with Frazier. I agree it won’t be easy but it’s doable.
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1 hour ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:
Bengal’s weakness is supposedly their boundary corners. Diggs is due for a big game.
It is their weakness but they have a very good DVOA against #1 receivers (bills are bad against number #1s but throttle all others). I think Davis will really need to get going on the boundary.
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2 hours ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:
Not a damned thing.
I just enjoy seeing *****-talkers get their just desserts.
Everyone does. But do it like diggs and roast them on the field. You can even let them know after. No need to try to hurt a player. That stuff can escalate and I don’t want another injury on our side. Honestly I am hoping apple talks smack to diggs.
On the 3 man rush and pressure, I think (and others have said) this is a game where coverage sets up pass rush. They don’t want to run and burrow gets the ball out quicker than anyone than Brady. With their line being a bit banged up you need to get burrow off his first read to allow the rush to get home.
Check out some of Anthony Prohaskas from cover 1 film review from Wednesday. He shows how TB did great in the first half to get Burrow to have to process the coverage which let the rush get home.
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3 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:
They have a lot to lose with a loss. Puts the Division into play and they could drop all the way down to the 6th seed.
This. Bengals are still playing for division. I don’t understand why everyone keeps talking about their outside shot for the 1 seed. If I’m them I’m focused on winning division. Maybe the 1 seed enters my mind if Denver pulls off the upset. Coming up short on the 1 seed isn’t the end of the world. Coming up short on the division would be a disaster for them.
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52 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:
Maybe not a great thing but still it's a really good win for the Bengals. It's not easy going into Foxboro in December. NE was and is fighting for a playoff spot and their defense is good. Let's not make it like it was a nothing burger.
Agree it’s a good win. But it’s also a strange one. More yards than we had but also more turnovers. I think both teams went into Foxboro and took care of business and both are great wins.
I’ll give us the slight nod on game script. We were a bit slow out the gate but did very well in the second half with a huge drive that ate over half a quarter. That took everything out of the game and if we have that type of drive Monday we will win.
Oddly bengals had that weird hold on for dear life game with the pick six and chase fumble after a near perfect first half. Burrow is usually great in the 4th quarter so it was a bit weird to see them struggle.
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1 hour ago, The Wiz said:
This thread needs these stats reposted. Teams are targeting him and yes he got burned by waddle and hill in man. But outside that he’s been great. He almost completed the slice replace for a pick last week. He’s rounding out well.
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1 hour ago, Big Turk said:
Hendrickson snap count is because he is coming back from a broken wrist, not because he has played poorly. He has been very good this year.
Agree it’s def cause of his injury. But it def also limits him in this game. Why else would they reduce his snap count? Do you think he plays 60% if the snaps (he played 43% last week)? I also think with these offenses we’re gonna see a lot of plays (59 plays is the lowest the bills have since the bye). As we both agree he’s a good player and so the less we see of him the better.
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27 minutes ago, Motor26 said:
Who would you have wanted to take at 23? The top 6 receivers were gone.
Agreed and I think beane sees other teams spending big on WR lately and is waiting for the market to swing in his favor (Shakir in the 5th is a good example this draft). I think this upcoming year may be a good time to draft early as some talent may slip.
10 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:This should be a good game. If I was to break it down:
QB: EVEN. Both are elite and can take over a game.
RB -Bengals — they actually run the ball with Mixon who is a good RB
OL — Both are suspect IMO. I give the edge Bills
DL — even
LB — Cinci
Secondary - Bills
I predict a close game.. a winner by less than 3.
RB: what? You didn’t look at their stats did you. Bengals are one of the worst YPC and total yards. Their backs catch the ball but they are not as good running.
DL you are also underselling the bills. No Hubbard and Hendrickson getting out snapped by sample and Ossai last game means their DEs are not as good. Inside Reader is great but they don’t have a lot more after that.
I see a lot of areas that we should be able to do well. Biggest concern is the gap at WR (or pass catcher to include RB/TE) may be bigger than the gap at any other position group.
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11 hours ago, SCBills said:
My (uneducated) guess at the positional breakdown given we rarely play the Bengals.
OL - Bills (If Morse plays)
TE - Tie
WR - Bengals
RB - Tie
QB - Tie
DL - Bills
LB - Bills
CB - Tie
S - Bengals
ST - Tie
Next Gen Stats was scrolling a stat during MNF about how Burrow is killing teams with his WR’s getting 3 feet + of separation. Game may come down to Bills DL vs Bengals OL and Tre White’s Progress / CB2 not being liabilities out there.
Agree with everything but CB. NCB is a push but Jackson/Elam > Cam Taylor Britt and Tre > Eli Apple (hope he talks trash to Diggs)
7 hours ago, NickelCity said:I'm guessing we'll got beasley for a few third down conversions.
Not sure about this game. Mike Hilton is a very good slot corner and I don’t remember Cole having good games against the Steelers the last 2 seasons.
4 hours ago, Mark Vader said:It's true that Josh Allen is not having the same year as he did as last year, and if that merits criticism, fine.
But it’s not true. He’s about to be the first player to have 4000+ passing and 750+ rushing in two consecutive seasons. 36/15 is very similar to 32/13. His passer rating and QBR are both up. How is it true that he’s not having the same year?
Stats from pro football reference
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2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
It’ll be the longest win streak to end the season since the 2003 Patriots.
Sure but the odds are no different considering our starting point from a pure numbers point. Clearly the starting point matters being down von and other factors.
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23 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
That’s 11 in a row. I don’t like those odds.
Not really how that works. It’s like offering someone the odds and payout of an 11 game win streak after they have already one the first 6. You’re getting great odds for a 5 game win streak and you should take it all the time.
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So many pages and i finally can describe why FG.
both options (FG and TD) have the same outcomes (fail=tie, success=win). So consider the likelihood either fails.
Missing a FG from that distance (even with the elements) is ~2% to me. The FG operation has been so good this season and has plenty of opportunity to practice in the elements.
For the TD, the fail is giving up a TD when a team has 1 TO and 40 seconds. I think that has a 5% chance of happening considering the dolphins WR and our problems at the catch point.
this analysis shows it was absolutely the right decision. If you disagree you must come up with different probabilities of what would happen.
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Tre is a great spider man. Glad they didn’t complicate it with dion. Captain rocket seems a bit better for josh. Overall was pretty good “original” designs. I might need a copy
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1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:
Chicago is the number 1 rush offense in the league and the Bills are 25th in the league in tackling.
Shoot that must mean our run defense ranks poorly.
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23 hours ago, NewEra said:
To my eye, he’s regressed since he first took over. He’s taken a bunch of bad angles and is a liability vs the pass. He’s ok, but I’m worried about the better passing team going after him.
I agree it feels that way too. I think he showed some of the whiffs on tape earlier and now teams have figured out where/when hes good at coming from depth and when he is not. But agree feels like those players are more common.
3 hours ago, PaattMaann said:Our nickel D has held up against the run for most of the season, don't know why it would magically stop holding up now...
Top 5 in total rushing yards allowed
15th in YPC
Top 10 in TDs allowed via the rush
DVOA run defense top 10
I dunno man, seems to be working. Our issues haven't been because of the nickel, its been missed tackles.
Agree. I think playing nickel will be about personnel and not how much Chicago runs (which is what the poster you replied seemed to imply). If Chicago goes 11, why wouldnt we want Taron out there when a WR has to block him. He is incredibly effective in the run game because of the personnel match up (he even plays against 12).
1 hour ago, Big Turk said:My Turkish Brother!!
That's my Dad's Name! 😃
Diggs is a treasure. It was all there to see when he was traded. He stayed at Maryland to keep his brother out of trouble when he couldve gone to a big school; his brother went to Bama. Amazing some of the things that were said about him.
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Great analysis. Wonder how it will change with 1 seed being the only team that gets a bye now. That so huge to me. Might affect both the 2 seeds that made the Super bowl. This year I think its even more important because then KC will play Cinci (sorta how Cinci didnt have to play both us and KC). The only other matchup im sorta rooting for in the first round (again dependent on us getting the 1st seed) is chargers versus KC. LA has been really close both games this year and are starting to get healthy (though they would still probably blow it).
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7 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:
I will never forget Bradshaw saying Josh was not accurate enough and "never would be". F him. You don't see him say a word about Allen now, bc he eats crow every time it somes up
Bradshaw is def not worth listening too. His best completion percentage was 62.5%. He doesnt know what it takes to be accurate. His TD % is good at 5.4% (a tick over Josh's career 5.3), but his INT % is putrid at 5.4%. Overall, he has a below average HoF score for someone thats in (from PFR) and his most famous play is a lucky bounce. Combined he played with an all time great defense I think he gets much more respect than he deserves.
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18 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
If you're talking about the first play Warner diagrams, which was the Bills 2nd drive, it's 1st and 10 to McKenzie and that's Diggs at the sticks.
Warner's point is that by the time Allen manipulates the CB with his eyes to come up on Diggs and open McKenzie, the safety has closed.
You're also I think missing Warner's point about Allen moving right. His point is that because there's a guy spying Allen, when Allen rolls right unnecessarily (protection is good), he takes the spy right into Singletary's path and cancels what would otherwise be an easy throw over the middle of the field with lots of space for Singletary to get the touch. Count noses: Warner is correct, there is absolutely NOBODY HOME who could prevent it, IF Allen stays in the pocket and maybe even looks left a little to freeze the spy.
It's great Allen completes the "dime" to Morris, and it's 1st and 10 so as long as Allen doesn't throw a pick we have 2 more shots if he doesn't. But it's no way poor analysis by Warner. We complain all the time about our drives in the red zone stalling out and having to settle for FG.
Warner is correctly pointing out the easy shot the play is designed to scheme open against that defense, and how Allen is taking that very easy shot away from himself by rolling to the R when he doesn't have to.
You don't have to agree with Warner all the time (I don't), but I'm surprised you can't even be open minded enough to give him a full listen. He 100% Knows His Ball. He watches Josh Allen a lot - I would say at this point he's even somewhat fascinated with Allen because of Josh's abilities to do things he knows he couldn't have done. But that doesn't mean he doesn't see different choices Allen could make that would be easier and sometimes higher % thus better.
I agree the easy shot is to Singeltary on this play. I dont agree that Josh can make this play if he stays in the pocket as Warner says. If he stays in the pocket why is the spy gonna move. I think Josh opens Singeltary up by moving.
Overall, agree with your other posts that he does a good job identifying missed opportunities like the McK above. I also liked the end of half play (where he shows the high low that should be thrown) and the strip sack where Beasely is wide open.
I wholly disagree with the TD to Knox. That was exactly the right play. The outside guys are playing 3 on 2. He spent some time talking about throwing to those routes when Knox was the right read all day. Additionally, I dont know that Warner is appreciating the disguised coverage that Josh sees (which is weird cause im sure Warner saw it too). I dont think the 40 yarder to Knox was MOFC but rolled into MOFO after the snap. This negates some of his analysis on that play.
Overall though I think Warner does a good job finding some of the meat on the bone, but think some of the other posters arent off when they say Warner is overly critical of Josh.
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3 hours ago, Heitz said:
Guessing this game will not be on TV in New England (where I'll be for the holidays) - better get work on finding an NFL bar in Rhode Island...
its a saturday game so i think it should be available. theres no other games at this time so I dont think youll get bumped. you may need nfl network though.
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1 hour ago, Nineforty said:
And if you take it a step further (pun unintended), someone (my brain initially) will say, "yeah but once the receiver sticks his foot in ground to cut, the defender will have to react and because of the snow, his reaction and time it takes to cut/accelerate will be slower than usual."
To which I reply, wouldn't the receivers' cut be slower than usual as well (and what if the receiver slips due to surface? Advantage defense.)
Is this just something everyone has said for so long? Or is there a valid counterpoint?
I think separation stats would answer this. They are a bit subjective but compare snow games to other games played by the same team that season. That would be a good indication if the offense is getting a separation advantage. I don’t have access to the stats
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8 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
How many of them are misses where he shoots the gap in the backfield and misses the tackle due to a sudden move by the RB who is then swarmed under by other Bills that get there due to Milano disrupting the play initially? I feel like this is what I have seen a lot of in terms of missed tackles from Milano which are really inconsequential mostly.
Unclear. I would also say that being aggressive and making plays is Milanos role so I can live with a higher missed tackle % than Edmunds whos role is to clean things up more. It has just been frustrating when folks have said in the past that Edmunds misses tackles (he is doing his best by the metric this year) more than Milano when thats not really apparent.
5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:lol. everyone is negging on our skill players but doesnt realize our offense is outperforming the chargers. I get that they have been banged up, but its illogical to say that Herbert is better than Josh and their skill players are better yet we have better offensive out put. Some cognitive dissonance there
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Week 17: Bills at Bengals on MNF
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by YattaOkasan
Yeah sorta wanted Bal to win so it want hat and t shirt. But cinci doesn’t seem to care. They seem to keep talking about the 1 seed and being the top dog. I get it I guess but I would be laser focused on the division as that’s a must have. The 1 seed is much more a nice to have. If cinci doesn’t win tonight then next week is against Bal is for the division. Hope the focus on the 1 seed bites Cinci and they lose the division.