YattaOkasan
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Posts posted by YattaOkasan
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5 hours ago, Gman10 said:
I know. I mentioned I was not overlooking the other two teams. But I am just saying they are already saying stuff...or "chirping" as the kids say
The chirping belies their fear to me. Let em chirp. Everyone knows that game is gonna be for the division. Gonna suck for them when we take it back after they kept it warm all season
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42 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:
They lost the eye of the tiger the last couple years. Went from being darlings to has beens in the media. No longer the hunted, they had to get hungry and hunt again or starve and die.
That is what's changed.
Said it couple times today even but it all is very reminiscent of 2021. I distinctly remembering Cowher saying he was changing his SB pick to the Pats cause they were back and we didnt have it after the hurricane bowl. Team took that L ("Are you embarrassed?") and the TB one and turned it into a great playoffs that probably shouldve ended in a SB trip.
https://www.aol.com/news/bill-cowher-changed-prediction-super-180950022.html
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1 hour ago, H2o said:
I do like what I'm seeing out of this team as of late. I think we are absolutely dangerous right now, and especially if we get into the Playoffs. Our backs are against the wall. This team knows they have to basically win out to get in. Still, I remember our backs being against the wall before and losing to the Steelers 2nd and 3rd string to miss the Playoffs. Any given Sunday anything can happen. I hope we string together a beautiful 3 weeks of football, on top of what we've seen the last two, and then some. Just taking things one week at a time for now though.
That Steelers game was a while ago. Take hope that we did something similar in 2021 where we had to win out to get the division and we did. Its no guarantee but we have seen it done just a couple years ago.
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11 hours ago, KingBoots8 said:
One week at a time.
…that being said, the Philly game felt like that Cards game a few years ago. They got a win they shouldn’t have, and all it did was make the team draw a line in the sand and *nobody* could cross it. If a certain game had a slightly different ending I think that we would have made (and won) the big one.
The difference is this time we aren’t currently winning the division. There’s no sleepwalking to the playoffs, and with that it means everyone needs to execute. The only way we survive is to destroy whatever is in front of us. We look like that team with a chip on our shoulder. We look like we are finally clicking.
We look like we could be champions. All that’s left is to win and keep winning.
One. Week. At. A. Time.
I get more TB in 21 vibes (OT and got ref'ed) but agree its similar. but then again so is this script. Bills come on strong late in the season with Josh Allen. We have won out in December every year since 2020. Out last losses of the season have been against good teams before we go on a tear at the end of the season. Cards Week 10 2020 (best month of football in my life), TB week 14 2021, Vikings week 10 2022 (though Cin game ending prob helped). Would also note the deepest run we had was to AFCG in 2020 when we had a week 11 bye. I think later bye might set us up though we still have a pretty big hill to climb.
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Didnt realize this thread was around cause i dropped off this site when its so toxic, but the 21 season has been something i have reminded myself of all season. it was really dark after that TB game that year. The genius of bellichek (only 3 passes in a hurricane) looked liked cowardice to me. We needed help and we got some and won the division. our end of the season is/was harder than 21 but now that were through cowboys and chiefs i think its clear how these seasons are similar. McD has an incredible record in December. rooting for this to be the year that he matches his Dec work in Jan/Feb.
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His logic means Kelly is clearly better than Marino right?
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25 minutes ago, Warcodered said:
Exactly and I can't even remember how many times in the around the NFL thread I've seen it mentioned he had a pick taken away by a flag it pisses me off. It's worse today after the Dallas game because I just watched Dak who's doing so great at not throwing picks this year throw like 4 or 5 that could have been some right to guys and he only had one. Meanwhile Josh will have a game where he's on fire has 2-3 bad passes and one of them is immediately picked off or one's tipped off a WR directly to a defender, it's ***** maddening.
Someone needs to give us the turnover worthy % from PFF. Heard Josh's is way down this year. Dak had like 6 yesterday.
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14 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:
Very tough game for sure. I believe the NFC is a lot better than the AFC too. The Cowboys are certainly battle tested this season. They still have a lot to play for. They should be ready on Sunday. Would love to see a letdown but truthfully it's unlikely.
Dak can be bad at times. The Bills pass rush has to generate pressure. The big play and explosive Cowboy offense is a concern for this depleted Bills D.
McD has really done a very good job with this Bills D. The injuries prevent this team from being dominant. Seems like the defense plays lights out in the first half and then not so good in the second half. A complete game would be a welcomed sight.
I think we have to talk about both QBs. Arguably the biggest key to winning. Allen under Brady has been very good. Looking like the old Allen we know. No restrictions, dynamic, and elite. Dak is in the MVP conversation so that says a lot. What version of each QB do we get? Dak can get rattled and Allen can certainly turnover the ball.
Really excited about this game. I really thought the Bills would lose in KC. Gladly, I was wrong. I do believe the Cowboys are the better team. Of course that won't be popular here.
Nevertheless, I just have a gut feeling the Bills win. The fans, home field, the must win mentality, Allen, etc...
Bills 24
Cowboys 23
Why do you think the NFC is a lot better than AFC? I think AFC is +8 in the H2H, and I dont know that Cowboys are that battle tested (only 3 of their 13 games are against teams 0.500 or better right now). Agree with alot of your assessments though on play style and areas of concern; though not sure about poor defense in the second half as were are top 10 in pp2ndhalf.
https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/afc-vs-nfc-record-win-loss-record-conbined-2023
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-2nd-half-points-per-game
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20 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:
I think there are decent odds that we do that. Because of the trade, Douglas' last year of his contract is entirely non-guaranteed. The Bills have excellent leverage to actually decrease his cap hit next year by signing him to an extension.
I don't know if Tre is completely gone, but I think we need to accept that even if he makes it back next year he absolutely not be at 100% speed. Losing him is a real possibility and he'll be an effective #2 at least for another year.
You mentioned in another post that we might extend him (I assume to get his cap number down?). I wouldnt mess with his number next year as its very favorable at 9 mil. I would consider guaranteeing that number and give him a few non guaranteed years on the back end. At 30 I am expecting a cliff in the near future but his contract for next year looks great.
20 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:Unless I am wrong, the Bills do not get that much cap space for cutting him. From quick math, I think that the gains of even a half season injury settlement would effectively be swallowed by the looming dead cap.
So, do we lose a veteran and open a hole for $10 of cap space in 2025? Or do we muddle and use him as depth in a platoon of Douglas, Benford and Elam?
Agree that cutting next year may not be the right path cause it only saves $6 mil. Liked a lot of your work in this thread. Thanks.
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On 12/12/2023 at 11:06 AM, Avisan said:
Can you (or somebody else) fill me in on why he seems to be so disliked here? He seems like a good, solid coach and can't recall anything in particular that he has done to draw ire.
I remember some weird decisions in bills games. like 2019 when he decided to send his kicker out for 53 yard FG on 4th and 5 when said kicker had missed 2 shorter FGs already and they were down a TD. I remember being shocked they were even attempting it and of course it was also a miss.
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1 hour ago, PBF81 said:
Yes, that's the high-level narrative.
Keep in mind however, we struggled in the Red Zone, going 1-of-4, and we hardly shone on 3rd-downs going 5-of-13, 38.5%, which is tremendously average.
20% of our total yardage was one play.
Other than that 81-yard pass play for a TD by Shakir, we had three drives over 23 net yards, only one resulted in a TD.
There's stuff to work on.
Are you complaining about high level narratives in a thread titled "oversimplification" sheesh.
Agree 1/4 in RZ is not great and is a dip from what we typically do. If you wanna keep an eye on it sure. Would also say we scored on 6/9 of drives prior to the game being out of hand (shakir TD). That is a great number for a jets d only allows scores on 34% of its drives.
38.5% is league average against a top 5 defense (4/9 after Shakir TD which is good). Why is that a challenge or struggle or whatever misspelling word you were trying to say?
Take away the run by Shakir and we still did better than average against the Jets and the whole 4th quarter we didnt try. In fact you rely a lot on stats after the Shakir TD to make your points (RZ being the exception). Nothing from the offense after the Shakir TD should be used for concern or confidence cause its not very representative.
Its not all sunshine and rainbows for sure, but that performance from Sunday beats the performance from either the Chiefs or Eagles last night. Now we need to see it consistently which has for sure been a problem.
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1 minute ago, PBF81 said:
Nice summarization!
We need to keep in mind as well, that 17 of our 32 points were either set-up by the D or that one single big play to Shakir. Those are things that cannot be counted on from game to game.
Our first FG was set-up by STs handing the ball to our offense at the Jets' 21. We netted 3 yards before settling for a FG there. The ball was handed to the O already well within FG range.
Our first TD was set-up by Douglas' INT at the Jets' 23.
Then of course that 81-yard TD by Shakir.
Otherwise, 15 points, one TD and 3 FGs. Hardly prolific.
Again, the point, those first three are not things that can be planned in, particularly against good teams. This was a Zach Wilson-led offense, or should we say lead offense given that it's weighted down by him, quite possibly in his last planned NFL start as a #1 QB ever.
If/when we show up like that against @Philly and @KC it'll begin to look more like it may stick.
Sure but we got the second most total yard against the Jets in the past two season (and that was with us taking the foot off the gas in the 4th quarter). So is the score inflated yes, but we did move the ball on that defense.
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15 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:
My point is the defense has performed statistically well on the season against bad offenses and are in for a wake up call, facing good offenses.
is this true? We gave up 29 to the Pats who are a bad offense and 24 to the broncos who aint great either. On the flip side we held Miami in check as well as Cinci and Jax (not killer offenses i know). I dont think its as simple as we do well against bad offenses.
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On 11/3/2023 at 10:45 PM, BuffBillsForLife said:
No force in heaven or earth can make Mike Tomlin finish under .500
Statistics either.
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Assuming others have said it, but this is great cause it makes it harder to shorten the game on us. Yeah you can still pick on LB but just running the ball down our throats now is gonna be tough.
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Butch Byrd to the wall already please. leads the franchise in interceptions when the ball was not being tossed around as much.
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10 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:
But DID he really? That's the narrative, but it isn't supported by anything other than repetition. Can it be quantified at all?
Joe Marino did a podcast on it last year. I think completion % in the middle of the field was really low. But overall not worth the salary he got and Bernard offers abilities they desire more
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On 10/20/2023 at 11:04 AM, Big Turk said:
You mean their 31st ranked run and pass offense. Yes...huge challenge it would seem. Watch other games much?
You know that players do improve typically in their rookie years as time goes on right? Usually pretty massively. That's why I specifically said end of the season.
For sure but must of the talk here has been positive and as I said his ceiling looks high. Like any rookie he looks inconsistent. Guess I would point you to spencer brown, another 3rd round/high ceiling player we had to depend on as a rookie. People were so thrilled with him (people thought his absence was why we lost the jags game) and then realized he wasn’t reliable. I see willams in a similar light. Def doesn’t have to turn out the same but I’m not taking improvement as a guarantee and right now it’s got some big lows.
would also note I didn’t mind the draft pick at the time as much as others that loathed it. I think it looks better in hindsight and the logic is clear (need good play behind Milano in case of injury). Just like Kincaid I think we should temper our expectations.
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I think his giants film for the most part is pretty rough but did show flashes so I’ll be super happy with a push. Cover 1 did a good breakdown (though they are higher than I am). He was responsible for two explosive plays (believe the other two were the perfect drop in a bucket throws by TT). Additionally he got beat by the same TE crossing pattern later in the game and Poyer saved his bacon. The flashes though were pretty great (Barkley coverage and taking in a pulling C) so I see the upside but if the giants can take advantage of him I’m worried what a better offense can do.
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18 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:
Under center or not - a mesh action is going to hold any defender keying the mesh a split second.
Sure but I guess which holds the defender longer. seems a bit harder to find the ball when one player could be running the opposite direction from the RB (versus standing next to them or not running as fast)
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4 minutes ago, Warcodered said:
Can playaction be effective without a running game, sure, would it be more effective with a good running game, obviously.
What seems to matter (and would like to see some data) is if the formation is under center or not. My thought is under center the ball gets hidden better and thus the LBs come a bit further forward. I also suspect a down and distance aspect to this. 3 & 10 is not gonna bring the LBs up as much as 3 & 3.
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3 hours ago, Ralonzo said:
Thanks. Just to expound on it, almost the entirety of the modern NFL runs route trees that sight-adjust based on the leverage relative to the defender. QBs succeed or fail in the NFL by their ability to process and correct for those adjustments. What is "revolutionary" about Miami's offense is that it doesn't use those concepts as much as a timing scheme where the ball arrives at a window along with the receiver, or if can scheme a guy to be Alabama-open. Tua can be effective if either/both of those things happen because he's accurate short & intermediate and can hoist it far enough (usually) if a guy is runnnig free by 5 yards. But, if opponents start showing up in those windows and/or guys aren't Alabama-open, it looks more like yesterday's 2nd half.
I'll give credit though, the intermediate throw to Mostert on the wheel route down the right sideline was perfectly placed. Two feet shorter or deeper and it's defended or picked.
Im wondering too how much we turned their revolutionary wrinkle into a detriment. Looked to me like the Bills were using the motion as an offensive key to their defense. So maybe we know were sending a creeper pressure but dont know whos dropping into coverage (probably based on which side the motion is on) and whos coming (probably based off of responsibilities on the back end, so dependent on who went into motion). This type of defense would be killer cause while the defense will all know whats going on like normal (assuming rather heady players), the offense cant get a read cause the defense isnt declared til that final motion which is right before the ball is snapped. Will be asking film geeks about that this week.
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6 minutes ago, JJGauna said:
Bass is clutch, he rarely flounders.
That kick in the rain on grass from 50+ before half was so good. Very high leverage. If he misses then commanders have the ball at the 45 with plenty of time and only down 13-0 and looking to double dip.
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4 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:
The premise here is that the Bills offense is being ‘handicapped’ by needing to help out Brown in pass protection. So…I went to the NFL league-wide receiving stats to see if this would show up. It doesn’t. The Bills have more receivers in the Top 100 than most if not all of the other contenders. For example, the Chiefs don’t have a single receiver in the Top 50. Kincaid has as many receptions as Kelce, who is their top target. Even with the Dolphins hanging 70 points last week, they only have Hill in the Top 50. Once again, it’s easy to be critical of our Bills, but the other 31 teams are far from perfection across the entirety of their rosters.
I agree with this line of thought. Kincaid is top half of the league in receptions for his position and so is Cook. We are getting more production out of non WR than ever. I dont see how were "handicapped." Were number two scoring offense again yet we are "crippled" by our OL or last years OL was a "disaster." Sorta dont understand the logic of saying OL is important (maybe posters are saying OL doesnt matter with JA17 at QB) but our OL is a disaster. The data doesnt support those two things being true.
New England Week
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
He didn’t want a longer contract. He wanted to play well this year and get a final multi year deal during his career.