YattaOkasan
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Posts posted by YattaOkasan
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24 minutes ago, UKBillFan said:
I think mjt328 is suggesting that's how the Dolphins should approach the game; not the Bills.
23 minutes ago, jletha said:I believe he is talking about what should be *Miami's* gameplan. Not Buffalo
Appreciate that context that I missed. I agree Miami should throw the kitchen sink. I think they still have to run but need some explosive plays to keep up. Sorta why I think they run a Hill wildcat package.
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10 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:
Or find a way to get Tyreek super involved. He can be a game wrecker pure and simple. He's too fast for any of our dbs.
I am sorta expecting a Tyreek wildcat package. With how limited they are they need something new. And if you took Skylar off the field and were able to get Tyreek the green dot some interesting things could happen. Get him lined up quick, look at the defense and tell him the play before 15 seconds.
4 hours ago, nucci said:these people need to get with the times...it's not the '70s
Agree. That tweet is a classic example of correlation doesnt equal causation. Teams with the lead run the ball to shorten the game. Teams behind throw to extend. That does not mean they got their lead cause of their running effectiveness.
1 hour ago, mjt328 said:That is conventional wisdom.
Run the ball. Control the clock. Keep Josh Allen off the field. Hope your defense creates turnovers and limits points.
I'm going the complete opposite direction.
The Bills have only had two games under 20 points this season (17 and 19 points). That is the absolute floor for this offense. So even if their defense plays lights out, I'm not sure a Skyler Thompson-led team can put together enough long methodical drives to put up 20 points.
My gameplan would be tons of trick plays, and taking at least one deep shot every drive. With Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, you might get lucky and get a couple big plays. I'm taking the chance they can get 2-3 bombs for touchdowns, over the same number of 8-9 play drives.
I really dont want any trick plays this game for several reasons. As you say they need to hope the defense creates turnovers. Why give them plays that are more risky for turnovers. if we run boring conservative offense (ball out quick and run plays), we might not boat race them but we do take away their best chance for them to beat us. Deep shots have Josh standing in the pocket against hte strength of their team. Also why give away the trick plays this week. Save them for a better team.
**I misread mjt post. These are my thoughts for what Bills O might do so will leave up. I agree with mjt that Fins need to run trick plays to stay in it.
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2 hours ago, JerseyBills said:
We're blessed with this staff
Crazy to think josh and mahomes are the 5th and 6th highest paid QBs. Gonna be weirder when Lamar, burrow, Herbert all get paid more. If two vets sign silly contracts josh won’t even be top 10
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18 minutes ago, BearNorth said:
Some of us may be forgetting that the Bills win vs. the Dolphins in Buffalo was really a 7 point win.
Motor took a strategic knee at the Miami four with an open path to the end zone to prevent a repeat of 13 seconds or HomeRunThrowback.
I suspect he was coached up about that very situation.
Agree and is even bigger if we don’t have roughing the kicker
17 minutes ago, BearNorth said:He actually has nearly 100 more snaps than Diggs, which is interesting, with his 50% catch to target ratio.
Yup. I make the analogy of Diggs is the Ferrari and Davis is the commuter car. You ask the commuter to do things you wouldn’t ask of the Ferrari. Also I don’t care how old you are NFL snaps take a toll. So to double them is not a small thing.
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9 hours ago, zow2 said:
The thing is,,, Gabe was so great last season and early this season at catching with his hands,, and he's always been a great toe tapper on the sidelines. For whatever reason he's become a body-catcher, has the dropsies, and gets lost along the boundaries. I guess it's a confidence thing. Mental.
I think it’s snaps. He has played nearly double the snaps from last year. I think it has taken a toll on him considering how much and who they ask him to block.
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2 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:
Maybe I’m taking crazy pills and I apologize if so lol but the 49ers really didn’t appear to be playing press man to me. Brandon Staley even commented on how different the niners gameplan was. They seemed to be playing what people around here call ‘the Leslie Frazier special’ lol lots of soft zone/cover 4 and cover 2 shell in the secondary and rushing 4…their linebackers tackled well and closed so fast on underneath throws though and they were stout against the run. Milano had a really bad night for us against the dolphins.
Miami runs a lot of heavy sets that dare you to throw a third linebacker out there and we tried to ride it out in the nickel and had an awful night tackling
Thanks. Appreciate the context I didn’t know what 49ers ran. Was countering some points from the other poster about running cover 2 against Miami. He thought that was bad cause of the timing offense miami runs. I don’t disagree with the thought but our results disagree we can’t run cover 2. He said something about 49ers success and man coverage and I didn’t realize. I would expect us to continue to play nickel as taron has played every snap against Miami this year. With mostert having a thumb issue I think we stand a better chance in the run game.
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16 hours ago, Ralonzo said:
The Niners smashed the Fins with press man as well. The thing with Tua, or the Dolphin offense QB's in general, is they are going to put the ball to the spot where they expect the receiver to be, whether he's there or not. Buffalo rarely tries to mess with the receivers getting to that spot. It's just read, react, try to tackle and if you miss on those guys they go a long way because of the team speed. Cover 2 with Hyde and Poyer, I'd have less concern. The likes of Jaquan, Marlowe, and yes Hamlin are eminently exploitable. That's what happened the first game. The home game, the Bills were getting annihilated with the run game, and they needed the last 2 scores in the fourth to win.
Niners did fine I agree. But to my point they didnt do as well as we did either time in terms of pass yards. i agree fins will throw to the spot where they expect a hole. but i very much disagree we dont mess with the receivers getting to the spot. you think the ONLY way to do this is by press man? Frazier knows how to do it by disguising and rotating coverage post snap. Frazier knows where they want to put the ball and puts someone there they didnt expect. If you cant run cover 2 with Jaquan and Hamlin then why did they hold Tua to his second lowest output of the season (186 yards!) in the first meeting. The idea that you have to run press man and cant run cover 2 against them is wrong.
Agree we got crushed in the run game in second game, but thats a better reason to say dont run cover 2 against them than that we cant stop the pass with it. In fact, I think we went to more cover 1 cause we were getting gashed in cover 2. What happened when we went to man in order to bring a safety into the box, was long passes to Hill and Wilson (others too i cant recall). You go to war with the army you have, not the army you want. The army we have can stop them better with cover 2 than it can with cover 1 (though we are pretty good in cover 2 man or cover 1 lurk/rat).
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6 minutes ago, Steptide said:
I'm assuming McDermott is leaving mckenzie in because he's "earned it", but this kinda stuff has to stop for the playoffs. I mean, MAYBE mckenzie is better, but it's not like mckenzie is putting up ridiculous numbers every week. They need Shakir to play more.
There are plenty of reasons why shakir doesn’t get snaps. He has gotten blown up on many run or screen plays that resulted in a TFL. McKenzie despite being small is at least able to get in the way as a blocker. I would also say McDermott trust McKenzie more and youre confusing that with “earned it”
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54 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:
Do you run the scheme that doesn't work but your players can handle, or run the scheme that does work and coach the damn players to run it? These guys are paid a lot as coaches. Go and coach.
Sorry what about our cover 2 shell doesnt work? we held them to 171 and 217 yards in the two games so far. Thats 2 of their 5 lowest outputs for the season. Including only Tua starts thats 2 of his 3 lowest outputs. I think youre referencing what the Chargers did to Tua, which at 127 was obviously great, but everyone else that has tried to replicate that has not been as good as we have done. If we dont disguise cover 2 or mix up coverages some then yeah i worry we would get carved up. But frazier has shown he can contain tua. 188 rushing yards (most of the year) scares me and run fits from cover 2 are harder, but you seemed to imply that cover 2 couldnt stop their pasisng attack.
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1 hour ago, The Frankish Reich said:
Mahomes has thrown 3,000 passes in his career. 49 have been intercepted. 1.6%. Every QB has lucky/unlucky INT streaks, but when you’re looking at a big sample size like that, the numbers don’t lie.
Yes but last two years Mahomes has thrown 13 and 12 INT. That bumps Int rate up to about 1.9. Josh is at 2.3% for career and 2.4% for the past two years. Mahomes recently has been more susceptible.
59 minutes ago, dpberr said:The offense looks good. I like that other players are getting involved, and Allen is back to taking opportunities, and not forcing it.
The marshmallow soft passing defense is adequate against mediocre QBs, but it stands little chance against keeping Burrow and Mahomes out of the end zone consistently, without a change in approach. The physical talent is there, but the approach gives away too many easy yards. This year - 214 passing yards allowed per game. Last year: 178, and that defense was soft too.
I dont really disagree about elite QBs seem to do better against us (I think thats what youre saying). But i take exception to the idea that 214 pass yards per game is bad. Were 8th in Pass yards allowed with more attempts than any of the teams below us. Also 178 is a crazy number. Are you saying our pass d isnt crazy efficient this year (true) or that our passing defense isnt efficient enough (not true)?
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5 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:
So he got traded here for nothing.. no draft pick?
Havent heard of that before... You sure that was on the table?
So it was a conditional 7th from what I have read.
when all the dust settles yeah it may not be for anything. It happens. Andre smith a few years ago was similar. Andre came from Carolina for a conditional late pick. Andres condition was make the team. Bills cut him and then signed him an hour later when they moved someone to IR. Cost nothing to get Andre from Carolina.
for Marlowe the only condition for a pick at the deadline that I could think is playing time. He’s been inactive since we got him despite cam Lewis and Jaquan Johnson not playing well. As soon as Marlowe is active he’s in over both those guys. I think they kept him inactive to not tigger the condition on the pick and still as insurance against further safety injury. I think we see him going forward and I’m hoping beane did it for free. He is a wizard.
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9 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
At the time of the injury, it was said it was a 6-9 month recovery
Hyde may be a bit ahead of schedule in terms of being cleared to run on the sideline with trainers, but at the end of the day, bone heals as fast as it heals
He’s got a wife and young family, no reason to risk returning when he might not be completely healed
I just wish Beane could pull something out of his hat that would help the team, between Von Miller and Phillips and Hyde and Hamlin we’re pretty thin
I think pulling Marlowe out of a hat is as good as we could expect. Got a suspicion he might not have met the terms of the conditional 7th round. If so then getting Marlowe for nothing is a coup.
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9 minutes ago, Simon said:
I've seen that and have a really hard time reconciling it with what we're actually seeing live on Sundays.
I think Allen has such a great pocket presence that he sees pressures and avoids them before they actually become pressures, resulting in a very deceptive (and subjective) number that places the Bills around 10th in the league. If you look at the number of times Allen has been forced to scramble on pass plays, the Bills are suddenly 3rd worst in the NFL, with #4 being significantly far behind them.
I agree josh is amazing at pocket presence and it’s not talked about enough. So I think you convinced
me the stats are overstating the OL play. I would mention though that josh has shown the pocket presence from 2020 so the year over year stats can be used for comparison rather than league wide like I was doing with season ranks. Josh definitely is choosing to leave clean pockets though making his own angles tough (he so good at tough throws though). I think a thread on OL might be needed as there’s a lot to talk about it feels. Thanks for the discussion
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Just now, ScottLaw said:
Similarly to games they’ve lost last year and this year… Offensive line getting blasted throughout the game and Josh getting beat up in the process.
Both the Miami and Jets loss the offensive line was putrid and contributed to their poor offensive performance.
Think back to the Chiefs playoff game from last season, if Josh wasn’t a magician in avoiding the rush of Ingram who destroyed Brown for much of the game, there isn’t a 13 seconds to begin with.
I put Miami on several misses from skill players. Dirting a throw to McK that gives us the lead. Even the strip sack was singeltary not being able to lock holland.
jets was clearly interceptions. Yes josh got out of the pocket for one of them but it was clearly on him at that point. The second was from a clean pocket. Also tackling. Nah. I don’t pin those losses on the OL
1 minute ago, Simon said:Yeah, that's why I put quotation marks around it. Just because it might not be the most optimal way to go about it doesn't necessarily make it a full blown "criticism".
As for the original question, I think this awful OLine and its frequently blown up passpro has him throwing off platform at odd angles so often that it probably really affects his accuracy and the YAC potential.
I see thanks.
just check the stats on awful OL. I think it’s a similar “criticism”. Carried over from years past. Pressure rate is down a third this year. We were good at sack last year but bad at hurried pressure and hits. We’re now middle of the pack for all of them. I think he’s getting a cleaner pocket.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/advanced.htm
check the pressure tab -
1 minute ago, Simon said:
All of these same problems with his questionable feet and his poor work against athletics ends were there all throughout last year as well and have nothing to do with his back surgery.
Agree. Point might be that with back surgery he didn’t get the chance to correct them
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6 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:
Where's the separation on deep balls then? Receivers are not open enough regardless (or make that contested catch, one needs to make).
Don’t disagree the WR aren’t holding their end of the bargain. I had them as 5-10 in the league before the year. Now I think they are 10-14. Crazy cause I still consider diggs top 5. An average WR2 would probably get them back to 5-10
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1 minute ago, Simon said:
I think this was a fair "criticism" a year or two ago, but imo since then he's gotten much better at recognizing coverages, throwing with anticipation and putting the ball in spots before his receivers are all the way out of their breaks.
I guess. Trying to dissect this a bit is hard. First thing in my mind is his time to throw has stayed high. I think we also still run a ton of option routes which are not anticipation throws.
I actually don’t consider a criticism. Having the ability to wait until peeps have separation shows the ability to have great arm strength. Allows adjustment to post snap coverage changes. Lastly I think it’s how he can convert 3rd and Josh Allen’s. Hard to anticipate 3rd and long plays versus short plays
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Just now, balln said:
His pff is 41. I know you don’t like pff. But no offense - no fan is going to be able to objectively produce stats for lineman
how about - eye test. Basically every blown up offensive , negative play or penalty. Can be traced back to saffold getting abused. Both run and pass
Yeah that’s the challenge is pff is the only source really. I think more OL focused peeps have some better ones though. But PFF also has morse at 51. I don’t think that checks out
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Back to the OP. I think it’s how Josh plays. He throws when he sees separation as the ball travels that separation decreases and the YAC is diminished. In other offenses that are based on timing the ball is thrown before separation. When the ball gets there the separation is maximized and thus more YAC. I don’t know that Josh will ever be a high end YAC guy. I hope for average.
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Just now, balln said:
It’s more than saffold is just overpaid. He is playing at a level where he shouldn’t be in the nfl. He’s AWFUL!
Lol well have to disagree on this point. I think he’s average to just below. Need to find a good set of stats to reference. But not in NFL is comical. You clearly don’t watch other teams enough let alone what backups look like.
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1 minute ago, whorlnut said:
It’s very alarming that a guy that tests so well from an athletic standpoint gets beat so much.
You mean his weakness is speed rush? Yes I find that strange too. But bills have a type on OL. Joe Marino said their average RAS is 9.3! probably shave some off aged vet Saffold but he was athletic when he came out.
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6 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:
Brown has played better the past couple weeks but my god he’s been awful again this year… dude routinely gets abused…. Him, Saffold, the lack of skill at WR, and self inflicted turnovers will be the reason the Bills don’t win the SB this season if they come up short IMO.
Those are the weak points of our OL but I think you are making them out to be worse than they are. Though ive
come around to Saffold is being overpaid so would be happy to get some young blood there.
Lastly how do you see them as the reason for us losing? Our run game is humming and our TOs are coming from a clean pocket more often than not. How will they cause harm? Penalties is the only stat I havent looked up. Everything else isn’t a liability.
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17 minutes ago, SCBills said:
I’d argue the Bills OL is solid when healthy, and they’re healthy now.
Metrics can be cherry picked. As I said above, Bills are Top 5 in pass block win rate.
In regards to Allen having less to work with than Mahomes and Burrow… I think that’s probably accurate. Remains to be seen how our Kromer-led run game factors in against peer contenders.. Not that we should become a running team, but it will be interesting to see if it translates in any meaningful way.
The flip side of the coin is that our Defense is better than Cinci’s and much better than KC’s. Do they show up in games like this?… because for all the investment, they didn’t last year when it mattered.
I agree. Pff grading is garbage so not using that. Kromer has got the run game humming now. Took some different approaches to get there (tackle pulls) but our RB are really producing since the bye. Also the OL is not really a problem in the pass game (bottom half in sacks, hurries, hits, pressures though a lot of that is Josh). Problem in the pass game is drops (obviously not OL) and INT. A very high number of Josh’s INT come from a clean pocket so hard to blame them. I think the OL is rounding out very nicely.
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1 hour ago, FrenchConnection said:
That’s what I meant. If they win they get hats and t-shirts because they win the division.
Yeah sorta wanted Bal to win so it want hat and t shirt. But cinci doesn’t seem to care. They seem to keep talking about the 1 seed and being the top dog. I get it I guess but I would be laser focused on the division as that’s a must have. The 1 seed is much more a nice to have. If cinci doesn’t win tonight then next week is against Bal is for the division. Hope the focus on the 1 seed bites Cinci and they lose the division.
The Wall of Fame - been a while...
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Butch Byrd should be in every post. I can’t entertain anyone. Dude is still our interception leader with 40. 5 time all star! Love a lot of the other names I’m hearing but they haven’t accomplished nearly as much as butch.