YattaOkasan

I don’t think TFNG is the mode in this data set as it’s only 9% of the data set. Getting some gain will almost certainly be a higher percentage. I understand your point of TFNG being a big number but all TFL is actually a bigger number so it’s a mischaracterization to say it’s a little important number being added to an insignificant big number. Your point on short distance situations is interesting too. You have de valued them quite a bit IMO. A TFNG in short yardage situation is more beneficial than on first down. This is in a direct sense. If you are trying to say a TFL on first down is more important because they indirectly cause turnovers then I could be convinced (show the data please). However the short yardage TFNG causes punts (as you said desirable) or keeps points off the board. you say the position is devalued but then say how much his 5th year contract is and he should just be an edge. All these things can’t be true. He made a pro bowl (without doing well in fan vote). And part of the 5th year formula incorporates how much the position gets paid. he needs to play better than last year but he’s above average and flirting with top 10 seems right to me.

He did it again with Simms two seasons ago at OBD. agree that’s a great watch though. That’s where dilfer lays out the fallacy of the idea that completion percentage is the same as accuracy.

You don't think theres an argument for either Jackson (MVP winner) or Murray (2019 Offensive rookie of the year) over Herbert (2020 offensive rookie of the year)? Simms was pretty high on Herbert and had him #2 in the class (well ahead of Tua). That was him going out on a limb last year imo so now youre gonna say hes doing click bait by not having him high enough. Why is it so hard to accept that this is his opinion and is not for clicks.

Just want to frame this a bit differently. I think we are already challenging KC for the AFC crown. I can understand your arguments on the other players (would disagree on Tremaine as he has made a Pro Bowl without winning fan vote and we have had good years against TE before this year). Again we are challenging KC as it is and if the listed players become special we are routinely beating them (not just challenging them).

Sorry one clarification I need. Broke the record for completion percentage? I think thats a bit different than accuracy (Jones may still be very accurate). Completion % has accuracy incorporated into it, but also has things like processing in it. The blending of completion percentage and accuracy was not a wise development.

Agree accuracy is more important but completion percentage is something that can increase over time for many reasons. Arm talent will not increase appreciably. The challenge with lower arm talent is you need to make up for it with processing. I don’t know Jones wonderlic off hand but I would overall think it’s easier to process at Bama than it will be in the NFL

I would take those 3 over Brady? I would take Murray Jackson over Herbert but not the other two (I can't remember the list and am a bit confused by your sentence structure). I think hes wrong on Taysom Hill, but I really don't think the list is for clicks. Last year he actually tempered his list quite a bit and had Josh only at like 18 even though he really like him. He did similar with Burrow. His list maybe more out on a limb this year but I don't think its just for clicks. Do you think his picking of Josh and Lamar over the other 3 QBs in 2018 was just for clicks? Same for choosing Herbert over Tua? If hes just doing things for clicks then hes had well above average luck. For the other post about KC and disguising coverage, it was some of that but moreover that game was them CHANGING coverage to match the audible and Josh not having enough time to get back into the right play.

I wonder what his thoughts were on Josh coming into last year. I was excited but was still blown away by how well he did. I also like that PFF hasn't recognized that Josh sits outside the data set they use to make their predictions. One thing that site is good at is the non interpretative stats during different personnel groupings, down and distance, etc. Their grades though lack critical context and I don't think are that valuable to the NFL community.

I think they benefited from an easier schedule last year. They avoided the chiefs. Agree their D will win the games but I suspect that Ben’s arm will be a limitation earlier this season. They will struggle at the end of the season again. agree with @Sammy Watkins' Rib that running the ball is key to beating the chiefs. Joe Marino had some really good stats on games they’ve lost. Titans are so interesting. With that defense will they have to pass more? Will they be patient enough to keep pounding the rock? If they get impatient I don’t think it’ll go there way as well. Someone quoted the final score of that game last year but it was a comedy of errors (Roberts had two TOs that lead to easy TDs).

Hmm.. I'm taking a Wins Above Replacement approach. Because of depth at position I think the top 5 is pretty easy with this approach (order is a bit debatable with poyer/hyde having no backups). Allen Diggs White Poyer Hyde Dawkins Edmunds Milano Williams Beasley At the end of the season i suspect i might put Epenesa on this list over someone that gets injuried.

Great post. Would note the Titans have a very weak division perennially which explains some of why they have so many winning seasons.

Disagree. Tyrol was never the runner that Lamar is. Ravens are something else.

3 games but I am also hopeful. Reason for my hope is they saw him for more than just the 3 games in 2019. They saw him for training camp. If he was balling out for those weeks it would explain why there wasn’t more of an investment in what I still consider the position group that scares me the most.

I have lots of questions with the Titans. They ran nearly half their plays with two or less WR. I get that they have two great ones but they have lost the TE threat that was so critical to running 12. I don’t know if I trust tannehill to win with 3 WR sets. Can they make their offense work after gaining julio but losing their OC a top 10 TE and a slightly above average WR2? Obviously that defense is terrible. They can compete for their division but Im not super worried if we see them in the playoffs. Last years game was a very strange situation.

On Allen I would say there was plenty of evidence even in last years weird offseason that he had managed to change his throwing mechanics. Content creators were pouring over every rep they could to see it. I saw whole write ups to videos from his time with Diggs in Florida where there was focus on his "eating the cheeseburger." So I went into the offseason hopeful that Josh would continue to improve based off previous years and was super excited to see some data to confirm the improvement happened. These are small data sets and maybe not entirely relevant data sets (a huge lesson from Josh Allen draft grade), but it is some that can be used if youre aware of the first two caveats. https://www.cover1.net/taming-josh-allens-arm-how-mechanical-tweaks-have-buffalos-qb-primed-for-a-year-3-leap/

You had this line "I think he is toasted, but I am not concern because i have no idea what is going to happened." That sounded a lot like what Bills fans would say about our teams in the offseason for problems we could/should see coming. I don't think its too early to know what weaknesses could be. Until they play at all we wont necessarily know what the weaknesses will be. I do think about what are the most likely way teams fail. For one example with the Bills, I'm worried Star is not gonna play well and Dirty Harry will not take the step this year (2 ACLs blown out now) which results in sub par play from our iDL. This would affect Ed Oliver and Tremaine's development, and ultimately continue to be a "problem" for the team in run defense. Star was not at voluntary OTAs so that was some data to suggest that these fears could be realized, but as you said its too early to tell. Hes in the building now and Harry looks absolutely jacked so I'm less concerned. Still don't mind thinking about how we could end up not meeting our goals which is pretty obviously making it to the super bowl. Maybe this again speaks to state of franchises with the Bills fans thinking about this type of stuff, and Pats fans dont need to.

You don't have any concerns on what your team weaknesses will be? I do think the coin has flipped; yall have some serious Billeive syndrome. I agree coaching staff is your best reason for hope and will likely continue to be a strength. I'm all over on the defense. Secondary is obviously great but is motivation a concern (starting McCourty over Jackson was sorta immature and Gilmore is already holding out). I think MLB will be a weakness, but the 5 that play the line look good. Patricia will help. Offensively its OL and TE and the rest of the skill positions dont concern me. Overall game script will be important, and if you fall behind more than a TD that could be trouble. Youre decently set up to compete with teams that are focused on the pass (both offensively and defensively), but you may have trouble with teams that are strong in rush (both offensively and defensively). Honestly wouldnt be totally shocked if you beat the Bills but lost to the Jets.

It was more the comment itself indicated some level of concern (otherwise let it be and comment on the topic) Yeah Cam is not gonna be the answer, and I am very happy yall didnt get Fields. I think you can be worried about your QB position with this being preliminary data to support those fears. If I see dawson knox dropping balls im gonna be worried. Star didnt show up and i was worried. You dont have to be too concerned, but it is early evidence that the concerns are real.

Like i said recent posting history. Seems youre rather defensive about how much we talk about the Pats is all. Are you not concerned about the QB player this year? This seems to be by far your weakest position group.

Your recent posting history (Since May 10) says that you have only participated in Patriots threads. So... are you here to talk football or defend Pats in June?

Those are not nailed throws by Mac. He threw pretty far behind his receiver and they had to slow up a lot.

Love what they are doing on the lines. Its the offensive skill positions that cause my concern. Its a passing league and I'm not sure they have the long term plan there correct. Is Baker truth and how much are you paying him? Do they need Chubb? Will OBJ live up to his contract? Are there any receivers after OBJ and Landry? I think they have made a formidable team for this year, and going forward they have a lot of good pieces. However, I have concerns that they will be able to compete in the passing game long term. We have many times seem "capable QB" play get paid too much and that results in other players not being affordable. That is my concern for their team. If you are comfortable with Baker long term then more power to you.

That was the Knox challenge but same game. By the time josh hit diggs for TD #3 on the run in that play, BB didn’t have the will to get upset.

Titans we’re a winner this off season? Their defense is very bad. I think everyone is a bit too high on the browns but they will be good if mayfield doesn’t stink up the joint. For the browns I sorta don’t see the long term plan as well as I do for us. How much are they prepared to pay mayfield when he wins another first round playoff game? Also love that the north and west get to beat up on each other this year.

I was super not sold on that move as much as others in the media were. He was retired and moving to a new position. I wouldve bet allegretti was better let alone Duvarney-Tardiff.