LEBills

I’m not really diving into the logic of it, just something that keeps happening the last 5 years. As we look to narrow down who we may draft this year, that just happens to be one thing they all had in common. When you pair a young age with two years of production (basically starting being productive in college as a 19 year old) I think those two together give you a more full profile of what they look for.

“21 years old or younger” 👍 Pretty sure Tremaine was in his way to prom when we drafted him

Addison can play all over the field which is a positive. IMO, Sherfield is an upgraded Kumerow, Harty is an upgraded McKenzie, Shakir is being trained for that old Gabe Davis WR4 role. I think there is room on the team for a third receiver, even one that plays a lot in the slot like Addison would on this team.

I think he would, probably around Mayer’s level. The production may be a little lacking for him as well but since his main value is blocking it may be tough to judge. I hope they don’t look at that list and say “we good at slot receiver” Yea it’s not just 21, there are other criteria. Over the course of 5 years it is not a guarantee but more of an educated guess. Not necessarily what I would do, but the Bills seem to have a type that I am using to guess. We will see on Thursday!

Downs is awesome and would match what the Bills look for. The only thing with him is he had 0 top 30 visits. Not one team brought him in. I’m guessing here, but I think he is going to go later than people are expecting. Like James Cook territory.

21 or younger 👍 sorry if that wasn’t clear in the post.

Whether we trade up, stay put or trade back the draft targets likely remain the same barring a large move. just more on the list would be available/gone. We traded up for Josh and Tremaine who fit all of the criteria When we didn’t have a first rounder due to the Diggs trade, AJ Epenesa again fit the criteria

We are now going into the 6th draft of the McBeane partnership. In that timeframe they have certainly shown that they have a type of prospect they look for in the first round. Since 2018, every first draft pick has: 1. Been 21 years old or younger 2. Had two years of solid college production (Rousseau is the one exception but Covid complicated this) 3. Had clean medicals 4. Had a top 30 visit. We do not have all visits reported so this will not disqualify for this exercise. With these parameters, we can make a good guess of who Beane is targeting. We will break it down position by position. I will not be considering players like Jalen Carter, Bijon Robinson or Paris Johnson who are basically guaranteed to be gone. WR Fit: Jordan Addison Excludes: JSN (production), Zay Flowers (age), Quentin Johnston (production), Hyatt (production) TE Fit: Michael Mayer Excludes: Dalton Kincaid (medical, age), Darnell Washington (medical) OT Fit: Anton Harrison Excludes: Matt Bergeron (age), Darnell Wright (production - he was awful in 2021 at LT) LB Fit: Trenton Simpson Excludes: Jack Campbell (age), Drew Sanders (production) DL Mazi Smith Myles Murphy Excludes: Bryan Bresee (medical), Calijah Kancey (age), Nolan Smith (age), Will McDonald (age), Keion White (age) Final Board 1. Jordan Addison (top 30 visit confirmed) Addison has it all. Just turned 21. Two years of production at two different schools. Can play in the slot or out wide. McDermott is close with Pitt coach Narduzzi. Clear role immediately in the offense. And a confirmed 30 visit. If he is there, I think that is guaranteed to be the pick. 2. Mazi Smith (top 30 visit confirmed) Though not my favorite pick, Beane was very honest in his pre draft presser that you are looking for someone who can contribute year 1 and become a starter by year 2. He also admitted that DT is a position where investments need to be made. Finally, he saw how our run defense nosedived against the Bengals with Jones out. It won’t be flashy pick but one Beane will justify. 3. Anton Harrison (top 30 reported by walterfootball but no one else) I think the Bills feel they can upgrade at Tackle but don’t need to with Brown. This pick would create a winner take all, loser to the swing tackle position battle between Harrison and Brown. In 2 years he would be a successor to Dawkins. 4. Trenton Simpson MLB is the most obvious hole in the team, but I’m just not sure the Bills see it as a must fill. I think they think someone will be available round 2 and so are ok waiting. 5. Myles Murphy Murphy is a tough player to figure out. Some people have him as a top 15 pick, some think he may fall out of the first round. If he does fall to this position, there is a good chance he is the pick but he may get nowhere close to us 6. Michael Mayer I just don’t think the Bills are going TE in round 1. A rd2 or 3 player seems more likely.

Thank you sir for the proof read. I like Kincaid a lot as a prospect but I really think his age and recent back fracture will have him miss the first round. But that is kind of guessing, from a talent standpoint he is a first rounder.

ROUND 1 1. Panthers - Bryce Young QB Alabama Young is small but a great QB. Frank Reich finally gets a young QB to build around. 2. Texans - Will Anderson EDGE Alabama Ryans knows their is only one QB worthwhile in this draft and he is gone. They will make sure not to win meaningless games next year. This year, they take the cornerstone of their DLine. Anderson is not Bosa level but he is a solid player and Cesario has ties to Alabama. 3. Cardinals - Jalen Carter DL Georgia The Cardinals HC comes from the Eagles coaching tree and knows the value of defensive line. Though they tried to drum up interest for this pick, nothing materialized 4. Colts - Will Levis QB Kentucky Rumors in league circles is that Levis to the Colts is the worst kept secret. Stroud is a consideration but his low S2 score will drop him further unfortunately. 5. Seahawks - Tyree Wilson EDGE Texas Tech To mixed success, the Seahawks take Defensive lineman often in the draft. This is a case of letting the board come to you. 6. Lions - Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon Lions biggest need on the defense is the secondary that was putrid for much of the year. Fortunately for them, it lines up with a strength of the draft. Though Witherspoon has the psycho mentality that Dan Campbell probably loves, Gonzalez is simply bigger and faster. 7. Raiders - CJ Stroud QB Ohio State The commitment to Jimmy G is limited, their is a good amount of chatter of the Raiders moving up to 3 for Stroud. The Raiders sit tight and get their Jimmy G successor. 8. Falcons - Bijon Robinson, RB, Texas Sure the Falcons would like to trade down. But trade down or not, Arthur Smith’s seat is getting warm. To save his job, Smith selects Robinson to be his version of Derrick Henry. In a putrid AFC South, this will likely be enough to make the playoffs and save his job. 9. Bears - Paris Johnson Jr, OT, Ohio State The Bears finally got Fields some help with the trade for DJ Moore but now they need to protect him. Trading back was an option but with the first tackle off the board and a run potentially on the way, the Bears stay pay and select Johnson Jr. 10. Eagles - Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois Though Roseman would like to draft a DT or Edge player here because that is his thing, he understands it was a defensive holding call that cost them a Super Bowl. Darius Slay is 32. And Weatherspoon is the top player on the board. 11. Titans - Anthony Richardson QB Florida New Titans GM Ran Cathon is a former Gator running back. With ties to the Florida program, I think they will be talked into Richardson and his athletic superpowers in hopes of competing with the upper tier of AFC teams in a few years. 12. Texans - Jaxon Smith Njigba WR OSU The WR room in Houston does not have any premium players. JSN has a chance to be that for a QB that is drafted next year. 13. Packers - Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia The Packers include jumping the Patriots in the draft as part of the ARod trade. Nijman, their starter last year, is playing on his RFA tender and Bhaktiari is a likely cut candidate in the near future with his high cap hit. 14. Patriots - Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee Though CB or WR may be a more impact position, the Patriots understand they suck at drafting those positions. Riley Reid is very upgradable at RT and so they do so. 15. Jets - Joey Porter Jr, CB, Penn State Now that the Jets have acquired ARod, they need to protect the old man. Currently they have perennially injured Mekhi Becton and AARP Dwayne Brown at Tackle. A run of tackles makes that tough. Instead, they select another physical corner to pair with Sauce Gardner 16. Commanders - Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland Kyle Fuller is coming off an injury and the rest of the secondary is nothing to brag about. They select the local, gifted banks 17. Steelers - Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia Alex Highsmith is going into a contract year and the Steelers don’t have any depth behind him and TJ Watt. Smith’s personality seems like a great fit for Tomlin as well. 18. Lions - Mazi Smith, DL, Michigan Outside of corner which they already addressed, DT next to Alim McNeil is the biggest need on the Lions defense. They go back to the Michigan well for help as that worked out very well for them last year. 19. Buccaneers - Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa The Bucs have brought in many first round Edge players including Van Ness. Think they will like the size of Van Ness compared to other players still available 20. Chiefs via Seahawks - Zay Flowers WR BC Chiefs showed a lot of interest in Flowers asking him to go to Texas to workout with Mahomes and Kelce. They have too many picks and so use some to move up for Hills true replacement. 21. Chargers - Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU Chargers are realizing that Allen is old, Williams is hurt and Ekeler can’t continue with that volume. Johnston is a big receiver whose best skill is run after the catch which will be great for Herbert’s short completion. 22. Ravens - Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland Another corner in this stacked class goes rd1. CB is maybe the biggest area of need for the Ravens. 23. Texans via Vikings - John Michael Schmitz OL Minnesota The Texans jump up to get ahead of the Giants and draft the top Center available. Their 2022 starter, Quessenberry was the worst graded offensive player for the Texans last year. The Vikings only have 5 picks and are almost guaranteed to trade down. 24. Jaguars - Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame After winning the Super Bowl, the Eagles under Doug Peterson went out and drafted excellent in-line blocking TE to pair with Zach Ertz. I think they will feel the same way when it comes to pairing Mayer with Engram. 25. Giants - Jordan Addison, WR, USC Daboll’s Buffalo offense hit another level when they added Stefin Diggs. Addison has a reminiscent skill set and the ability to play outside which the Giants offense desperately needs. 26. Cowboys - Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern The Cowboys lost Connor McGovern to the Bills and despite adding Edoga to be penciled into the spot. They allow the board to fall to them and add a player with major versatility to fill the role. 27. Bills - Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma The player the Bills take always seems to be a player they have a top 30 visit with that we don’t learn about until very close to the draft. Josh’s meeting was very quiet compared to meeting other QBs that year, Elam we learned about the day of the draft last year . Harrison has not been confirmed by a legit source but Walterfootball does have him listed as a Top 30 visit for us. I think the Bills will like Harrison for many reasons: First, he just turned 21 and has room to grow. Second, despite his age, he played in 34 games in college and has a good amount of experience. Third, he is athletic, long and has a mean streak and power. Finally, he immediately competes with Spencer Brown to upgrade our biggest position of need on offense. At worst, if he doesn’t beat out Spencer (unlikely) he can be the swing tackle and the heir apparent to Dion Dawkins. Now many people may ask why not trade down instead of reaching for him? The answer is that he won’t make it past 33 in my opinion. The Steelers have shown a lot of interest in him and OT is a big need for them. 28. Bengals - Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama With Joe Mixons age and character while losing Perine, the Bengals take the best pass catching back in the draft to give Burrow another weapon. 29. Saints - Calijah Kancey, DL, Pittsburgh Saints have been doing extra work on Kancey leading up to the draft. Though he is small he is incredibly athletic and some team will envision him as a version of Aaron Donald. 30. Eagles - Will McDonald, EDGE, ISU The Eagles Brandon Graham and Derrick Barnett are long in the tooth. They add the bendy McDonald to fill the Edge pipeline. 31. Seahawks via Chiefs- Hendon Hooker QB Tennessee Pete Carrol gets his guy. Hooker can sit for the year behind Geno and be ready to take over next year when he is fully recovered. Carrol is older so Hooker’s age is not a concern to him. Remaining Bills draft 59. Drew Sanders LB Arkansas McDermott has been patient all off-season but if Sanders or Campbell are their at 59 they will be the pick. If they had their choice of both, I think Sanders is the pick. He is still raw at the position but has the tools and pass rush to be a bigger impact player in the long run. 91. Tyler Scott WR Cincinnati The Bills know they need another WR. If we move a pick for DHOP, I think this is the one. IF not, I think the Bills will see shades of John Brown in Scott. Scott is explosive and is faster on the field than he was at the combine. He also can play outside and has a running back background for some YAC. 130. Zach Pickens DL South Carolina Beane said it himself that the only position with a murky future is DT. If the right player presents himself earlier they will be the pick. For now, the Bills take some high upside DTs they have shown interest in later in the draft 137. Cameron Young DL Miss St Same as pick 130 205. Payne Durham TE Purdue Durham was lauded as the best TE at the Senior Bowl which included Luke Musgraves. He is not an amazing athlete but he is tough, productive and a perfect TE2 for the Bills.

Technically no, but this at least confirms we had him for a visit and not just a workout at his pro day. So we could have 31 visits with him included.

Matt Bergeron said on this podcast that he had a top 30 visit with the Bills. Starts about the 10 minute mark That brings the pre draft visitor count to 25 One other thing of note, Greg Cosell on OBL said he is hearing Bergeron is viewed as a guard by most teams he has heard from.

With the 15th pick of the 2023 Virgil mock draft (version 3.0), the New York Jets select: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee Not gonna lie, we are feeling goooood today. Maybe it’s just the contact high, but more likely it’s that we just basically traded Corey Coleman and a first round pick for Aaron Rodgers. The pick swap did sting a bit as we knew that would likely cost us the top OTs. But we move on by selecting the next best Tackle in the draft. Currently our tackles are the perennially injured Mechi Becton and AARP Duane Brown. We expect Wright to be the starting RT this year and have Brown/Becton handle the left side. @Kirby Jackson and the Washington Commanders are on the clock @Virgil

@Chaos

Greg Cosell made a joke on OBL that nothing gets by him if it is a buffet. Lots of concerns about weight and motivation going forward according to Cosell who rarely says anything negative about a player

@aristocrat is up now

There is always a first time for anything, but Josh Downs didn’t have any top 30 visits . The Bills have always had their first pick in for a top 30 visit during the McBeane era. To me it’s pretty unlikely he is the Bils pick at 27. Good player tho.

I personally would take the risk and take him if he is there because he can function as a big slot and is excellent against zone so he isn’t limited to a TE2 role. Ive just been watching the draft for so long, there are always a few guys with injuries that slip past where all of us non-insiders expect. Even Gronk was a second rounder and I think Kincaid may fall there too. Additionally, I’m not sure the Bills will think of him as more than a TE2 which in most offenses is a role player. Will be happy to be wrong but we will see in a few days.

Jets, Ravens, thanks virgil!

I hope so but the main positions on offense for upgrade are WR and RT and I’m not sure the Bills will feel the value is there at 27. Foe defense, the positions are much more in line with the projected value at 27. LB, DT, DE. Plus, McDermott is calling plays now and I feel like he is going to want every position stacked to his liking. And McDermott has a big say in who the Bills draft as we have seen. I hope we go offense for all of the first three rounds and more, but I am doubtful.

We will find out soon. I hope but am doubtful they will go offense early and often this year

Kinda of the point, first round O talent the Bills are looking at and have a chance of being available to them is limited. Pretty good chance we will trade down or go defense at 27.

I think you are overvaluing the Bills interest in TE. They seem to be targeting more the 2-4th round guys with who they have interviewed and worked out. Kincaid, though “cleared,” also had a back fracture which I think is going to drop him further than people expect. I think it would go more like Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Darnell Wright, Joe Tippman, Matthew Bergeron at 27 if they HAD to go offense at 27. Based on the pre draft visits/workouts we are aware of.

With the 57th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft the New York Football Giants select Cedrick Tillman, WR, Tennessee The blabbermouth GM kind of tipped his hand up thread but we love Tillman in Daboll’s offense. Despite our current receiver room, we do want some players that can play outside and see a spitting image of Gabe Davis to continue recreating the offense that flourished in Buffalo. If Tillman can avoid injuries we think a player with his college experience can step in and immediately produce. @Virgil and the cowgirls are now on the clock

Yea unfortunately Ole Miss doesn’t do their WRs many favors. Not a big fan of his hands and like you said he gets himself into too many contested situations because he is an inconsistent route runner. In that range I think Cedric Tillman is infinitely better. He reminds me so much of Gabe Davis coming out of that UCF offense Heupel brought to Tennessee.