Sammy Watkins' Rib

While you were sleeping?

Tomorrow's game to me is bigger than any potential AFCCG the following week. Naturally, one would think a game for the right to play in the Super Bowl has more meaning and purpose than a divisional round game. But this game just has so many narratives that need to be killed. First and foremost, McD has to get this team over the divisional round hump and going in the right direction again. That alone is huge and will restore a ton of faith in the fanbase. Secondly, the Allen vs. Lamar noise is through the roof. Both fan bases want it to be proven on the field who is the better QB. Which of course is silly considering they don't throw the ball to themselves with the other in coverage. But that is how the media sees it and like it or not it will be part of each players lasting legacy. Sunday's game is the biggest game and has the most on the line that I can realistically remember in my lifetime and I'm 40. I have faint memories of all four Super Bowl losses but as young kid you don't grasp the significance of those games. The AFCCG against the Chiefs would be the second biggest game but I'd put this game ahead of that one.

Serious questions. Is anyone interviewing Spags? And if not, why? Just another thing the Chiefs got lucky with. A great D coordinator who appears to be happy just being a D coordinator for the same team for 10+ years.

2021 season - Allen left the field with 13 seconds left and a 3 point lead against the Chiefs. He threw two TD's and converted a two point conversion in the final two minutes of regulation. And then never saw the ball again. 2023 season- Allen led the Bills offense to 24 points in regulation against a Chiefs defense considered to be playing as one of the best in the league. That postseason the Dolphins, Ravens and 49ers offenses scored 7, 10 and 19 points respectively in regulation against the same Chiefs defense. Bills defense gave up 27 points to the Chiefs offense in regulation. Dolphins, Ravens and 49ers defenses only gave up 26, 17 and 19 points in regulation to the much maligned Chiefs offense that year.

And if we go by our primary school rounding rules, Allen really has four seasons at 70+ QBR. He was 69.6 in 2023 which is closer to 70 QBR than 69 QBR. Of the "big four" QB's, Allen and Mahomes are the only four QB's with four seasons of 70+ QBR. Jackson has two such seasons and Burrow earned his first such season this year.

I like it but this is a hard truth pill to swallow. Bills have been 1b to the Chiefs 1a for 5 straight seasons now and so far have nothing to show for it. Not even a 1 seed that even more important than the bye week IMO, gives the most favorable division round match up. Chiefs went through the gauntlet last year on the road beating the Bills and then the Ravens to advance. But I feel like that that was the first and only time they went through that tough of a road. In 2021, with the 2 seed they had to go through the Bills and Bengals and couldn't make it to the Super Bowl with that draw. If we keep kicking on the door we will eventually break in. Odds are we will at least. But here we are five years later and still waiting. Is this the year? And if not this year, when? How many chances do we need?

Against this Ravens offense, 26 points or less would be a win for McDermott's defense. 23 or less would be a massive win. Bills should win the game if either happens. 20 or less would be a dominant defensive performance. That's a difference of only 6 points but it makes a world of difference in win probability.

Agreed. I will be rooting hard for KC next week if the Ravens somehow beat us. Allen would still be 1-1 against Lamar in the post season. And Lamar and the Ravens right now are pretty big favorites in a lot of folks eyes. If they can't make it to the Super Bowl with a presumptive 3x MVP and OPOY candidate in Henry that would be a huge stain on Lamar's legacy.

I got my playoff jitters out of the way last week. Was really a bit worried about the Denver game with them coming in with nothing to lose. And then the game couldn't have gotten off to a worst start. But this game I feel totally different. Love being the home underdog. Love that everyone in the media is picking the Ravens. Love that they embarrassed us back in week 4. Love that the entire team feels disrespected with the lack of pro bowlers and all pro nods compared to the Ravens. If dreams can come true we roll them and win this one by 2-3 scores with it never really in doubt from the start.

19 hours? just fly, no?

Rex will take the job just to see Josh Allen in person twice a year. Rex loves him some Josh.

Ty Johnson. Allen and Ty have connected on a bunch of highlight reel plays. It started in last seasons regular season Chiefs game and shows no signs off stopping.

Vinovich is the referee, not the back judge. You do know where the referee is at on every scrimmage play, correct? Funny thing about the referee position is that it is not uncommon for them to not even know the result of a play. They they have their eyes on the quarterback, watching out for roughing. So the referee sometimes relies entirely on the other officials to know if a pass what caught or incomplete. Even when it’s obvious to everyone watching.

good point. Excellently explains Allen being the “most overrated” after most laughing at his being drafted in the top 10 and feeling vindicated after his sub 60% completion percentage his first two seasons. I don’t think it is about the money. Nobody actually thinks Lawerence is a top 5 QB though. Fringe top 10 and that is extremely generous.

in the afc: Baltimore LA Chargers Denver In that order. Yeah, KC isn’t even in my top three. in the NFC, only the Lions really. I don’t like the idea of playing them when we beat them in the regular season.

Allen was the big favorite at seasons end per Vegas. Now almost a week after the season has ended the odds change and we have a new favorite. I’m going to take a guess that this is the first time in modern history we have seen MVP odds change almost a week after the end of the season. Let’s remember it is the job of Vegas to get about even money on both sides. Not necessarily to predict the winner. Nothing has changed and as many have pointed out, Lamar being named first team all pro was a pretty likely outcome. But now the public is going to poor a lot of money in on Lamar’s side if the odds did not adjust so Vegas has to adjust Lamar’s odds incase Lamar were to win. I doubt anyone is running to put money on Allen now but really now would be the time to do so.

100% with you. i never thought for a second Allen would be first team all pro. I’m actually a bit shocked he won 2nd team all pro by such a wide margin. thought there was a real chance it could be Jackson and Burrow in that order. This doesn’t change the MVP narrative at all.

This right here. Virtually zero percent chance any of the 18 Allen voters do not vote him for MVP. There is a 12 vote difference between Allen and Lamar in first team all pro votes. that means Allen only needs 6 of the 30 Lamar votes to switch to him for the two to be tied in first place votes. Then it comes down to who gets more second place votes or who can swing the two votes that went to a QB not named Allen or Jackson. I don’t find that u reasonable at all. Very well could end up being about 8 -10 votes that switch from Jackson to Allen maybe even more. But on paper Allen needs at least six at minimum and that seems likely.

Not always the case. Do the home team Texans have more pressure than the Chargers? I' say no. Even before the game was moved I would say the away team Vikings had a lot more pressure than the Rams.

Still blows my mind that Sammy's best season in the NFL was remains the one where he played in Rex Ryan's offense with Tyrod Taylor throwing to him. Despite later playing in the McVay offense and Reid/Mahomes offense. Truly a 1st round bust.

yes but Ravens will get a rest advantage over us the following week. I would have preferred the Saturday night game.

Worst possible time for me. I either have to (a) ditch my family for the day (b) watch the game about five hours later on a recording and hope the outcome is not spoiled or (c) watch the game on my phone while being distracted 50% of the time.

Pit vs Balt has a good chance for being a Saturday game.

My prediction is Bills/Denver is Sunday 8pm game. Bills have been a massive draw all season. High scoring fun offense and rookie Bo Nix first playoff game should be a good draw as well. I just hope Ravens also play Sunday.

keep in mind that opens up the strong possibility of the Ravens getting an extra day of rest on the Bills for the divisional game. i am hoping Bills/Denver is Saturday 8pm and Ravens/Steelers is Sunday.