TPS

You went from stating "none of the data that I've seen supports signs of troubles in any segment of the credit markets." To "There's always a sign of trouble somewhere." Where we agree is the lack of any systemic risk. However, There are some strains starting to show at the very bottom of the market, which is why their spread is rising relative to other risk classes (as one of the articles I posted noted). High-yield default rates are rising and projected to rise further, and downgrades are rising relative to upgrades, according to Moody's as well....

That's the problem. They are Dr Jekyll (good) and Mr Hyde (bad), though mostly the latter. However, they still have that potential to do what they did to the Ravens....

Or maybe the transition to the NFL takes longer than most fans think...?

Hopefully Josh (the 3rd QB taken) will play with a chip on his shoulder and try to out-play Mayfield.

So, are you now walking back your statement that "the default rates are still at all time lows and are not ticking up yet"? According to this Barron's article: https://www.barrons.com/articles/more-companies-have-defaulted-in-2019-than-all-of-2018-51570443300 So, which is it? Are we at all time lows still or not?

The Skins held the #3 and #6 ranked offenses to 19 and 9 points the previous two weeks.

No one said anything about a systemic collapse. I’m not sure where you get your info from, according to this, default rates on junk are not at historic lows: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/AB809B54-C03D-11E9-A93B-DAD0C8101BC5 “Defaults on bonds issued by debt-laden U.S. companies with speculative-grade ratings are on pace to reach a new high this year for the post 2008 crisis era, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.” i agree there doesn’t appear to be a systemic issue, but there are stresses in some credit markets.

I'm sure you're right, there are no signs of trouble in ANY segment of the credit markets. Nothing to see here...

Was reading some draft profiles on him. His strength is pass rush over run stuff. We'll see....

Beane has said what his philosophy is, use FA to set up the draft (so you aren't reaching for need). My impression is he also weighs the strengths of the draft class; for example, the 2019 class was strong at DT, and he didn't do much there other than re-sign J.Phillips. It's my understanding that the 2020 WR class will be good, so we'll see.

I meant to respond to this....Maybe you're not looking in the right places? https://www.wsj.com/articles/wave-of-financial-stress-hits-low-rated-companies-11571736606 https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1htfp0w2w1c8r/Bigger-Private-Equity-Checks-Won-t-Make-Up-for-Weakened-Credit-Protections

Who is the greater threat to US hegemony, Russia or China? By vilifying Russia, we’ve pushed them closer to China.

Yes, I've heard the clap can make you soft....

I know I've said it before, but I've grown to like some of these Reagan supply-siders in their old age... https://original.antiwar.com/David_Stockman/2019/10/30/yes-virginia-there-is-a-deep-state-and-its-feeding-the-anti-potus-mob/

Maybe you should read the posts prior to mine in order to understand the context, then maybe you would not have misinterpreted it. First, I posted the article because some of the things (lack of income verification for example) that are going on with subprime auto loans are exactly what happened with housing--which is what the related posts were discussing. No where did I say it was "a harbinger for the economy;" in fact, I stated it is relatively small compared to housing. Second, my aside comment about the ratings agencies was also about the housing crisis, not the Santander article.

This is a good piece on current issues with subprime auto loans. It's almost identical to what the banks were doing with housing. Fortunately, the market size is no where near housing.... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-25/subprime-auto-giant-s-loans-souring-at-fastest-clip-since-2008 btw, a lot Of those buyers you mention relied on the ratings agencies who were corrupted by conflict of interest.

A shitton were originated by mortgage finance companies many of which were bought by Wall Street banks to supply their CDO/mBS business. My view is there were many, many factors that contributed. You can’t pin it on one area, other than greed...

No. Read the article. It’s a short summary of the research. .

Ahhh, the old CRA and the Dems did it canard. It won’t matter how times someone disproves it, because the story fits your bias. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/feds-notes/2015/assessing-the-community-reinvestment-acts-role-in-the-financial-crisis-20150526.html

Based on calendar year data from the BEA and CBO, total federal revenue went up by $62 billion from 2016 to 2018. Compared to the previous two year (2014-2016), revenues increased by $248 billion over that period. Revenues as a share of the economy (GDP) were 17.6% in 2016 and 16.5% in 2018, and using 2018 GDP, that reduction of 1.1% amounts to a loss of revenue = $225 billion (which is where that $200 billion contribution to the deficit is coming from). Overall, the tax cuts lowered the federal government's share of revenue out of total income. Yes, the majority of Americans got crumbs, and those of us in high tax states paid more. Most of the tax cuts went to the top 1%, directly or indirectly via stock buybacks.

You have to be very biased to believe you can compare deficits when unemployment is 3.5% vs > 6%. And my statement was made based on the deficit to gdp ratio, since you also can’t compare a dollar deficit today to a dollar deficit from several years back when the economy is a couple trillion $s larger today.

Yeah, I'd say the Pegulas are very happy with the way this organization is moving. Building for the long haul...

The point of the article, (outside of WWII) the deficit has NEVER been this large when unemployment is this low. Unemployment and the deficit almost always move in the opposite direction. Trump's tax cuts and spending increases have changed that. As I said, he's a good Keynesian....

The left? Who exactly? Clogged plumbing in a very large payment system. It’s whats driving the trump economy. He’s a great Keynesian!