The Frankish Reich

Right. Even setting aside whether McD is the right HC going forward, Florio mentions something I hadn't thought of before: you bring in a new OC and Allen has a big year; that new OC is probably getting a head coaching gig somewhere else the next season. So there is a real bias toward hiring offensive-minded head coaches, and that makes a lot of sense in today's NFL. Not a "nonfactor." Cook had a fine rookie season despite a painfully slow introduction into the RB rotation. Shakir: same as Cook. Early season reps = late season/playoff big plays, but they never really got them. Benford and Elam had their moments, Benford early, Elam late. Both look like keepers to me. And Matt Araiza certainly made an impact ...

Right. The defensive playmakers other than Milano were out or playing hurt. Miller, Hyde: out. Poyer, White, even Jordan Phillips (his shoulder injury ruined his great interior pass rush): playing hurt. Now Simms has a point about the defense going forward. Miller may be effectively done - what will he have left in 2025 if he even does come back? White may or may not make it all the way back. Hyde may never play again, or play effectively again. Poyer will be gone. So that leaves Rousseau, who really seems to be dependent on having Miller on the opposite side at this early stage in his career.

True. For me ... I've been a hardcore bills fan for over 5 decades. At this point in my life of fandom, I find that it's just as important to enjoy a season -- the ups, the downs, the kind of narrative that unfolds from September to January -- as it is to have the season end triumphantly (after all, that's never happened in my life). This season just wasn't as enjoyable from a pure entertainment standpoint. Lots of close games, sure, but a little flat compared to 2020 and 2021 (and really flat compared to the bizarro "we broke the playoff drought in the most unexpected way" 2017). I think some of that may be the lack of Sunday afternoon games, but some is also that the team lost just a little bit of that youthful fire that made it so compelling the last few years.

This is huge. I remember when Russell Wilson broke out in Seattle and everyone said -- correctly -- that their huge advantage was not just having a really good QB; it was having a really good young QB on a cheapo 3rd round contract. Just another way in which competitive balance is always the equilibrium in the NFL

That's the thing. The Bengals drives against the Bills INCLUDING the canceled game (which didn't count in the stats, but that actually was played for about a quarter): - 7 plays, 66 yards, TD - 5 plays, 79 yards, TD - 10 plays, 72 yards, TD - 6 plays, 14 yards, Punt - 14 plays, 65 yards, FG - 6 plays, 44 yards, end of half (Bills saved by the bell) - 12 plays, 75 yards, TD - 5 plays, 61 yards, FG - 8 plays, 29 yards, Punt - 2 plays, 0 yards, End of Game So, not counting the garbage time "drives," the Bengals had: - 7 of 8 drives moved the ball at least 44 yards. The 44 yard drive resulted in the end of the half, so you could say 6 of 7 drives gained at least 61 yards. - again, not counting the garbage time or end of half drives, 6 of 7 drives resulted in points It was total domination. I am a Leslie Frazier defender, but ... here, the Bills saw what the Bengals were going to do to us on January 2. And then seemingly changed nothing, and let the Bengals do it all over again 20 days later. This wasn't close, and at least from the defensive standpoint, the January 22 game was a resumption of the January 2 game, nothing more or less. If the defense was exhausted and out of gas on January 22, I guess it was exhausted and out of gas on January 2 too.

did he tweet that if we'd kept the picks we could've had Justin Jefferson, the first seed/bye week this year (because Jefferson single-handedly beat us for the Vikes), and draft picks to trade for some other need, and that he could've been whining about Kirk Cousins last Monday instead of the Bills offense today? Please read and advise.

Good summary. And that’s why O line projects are a problem. “Took a while to put it together” = “will be an expensive free agent by the time he becomes valuable.” I’m a rare Tremaine Edmunds defender here. But same thing with him: very young (remember the “he’s still 19!” Thing on draft day?), very talented but very raw when we drafted him. I thought he got better hear by year, but by the time he’s actually really good (my minority view), he’ll be packing his bags.

That’s just astounding. THREE first round O line picks in 27 years? No wonder why we always seem to have O line issues.

Re: Brown. I agree. I think he can be a very useful player. I just think it’s mostly a leverage thing given his body type that makes him unlikely to be a long term solution as a starting tackle. EDIT: Brown was kind of a George Fant type project. Fant had played a lot less football than Brown (he was almost purely a basketball player) but was a tall athletic guy that Pete Carrol saw as a project. Got pressed into action too soon and it was rough. Then started to show some of that promise as he learned the position and bulked up. Then went to the Jets this year where he was horrible …

My dad (the ultimate old man Bills fan since their first season) noticed that. “Hey that guy jumping around after sacking Burrow … isn’t that rhe same guy that jumped offside?” Yep. Same guy. Celebrating his bad play.

I think you mean 76th ranked Tackle for Brown. Still ... horrible numbers (I mentioned this in the bumped Orlovsky thread), and it's not like the eye test disagrees. One of the other issues: unwillingness to adapt during the season. Saffold started bad, was bad in the middle, and if possible even worse at the end. A sub-replacement level player this year, which means "find some guy on someone's practice squad and see if he can do better." Morris helped us a lot when he got here, but 24th rated Center is out of, umm, 32 starting Centers. Brown is a failed project. I thought that would become apparent early this year. It did, but then Quessenberry was just as bad, so there really wasn't anyone else to turn to. It is a garbage line with only one keeper (Dawkins), and even he is at best a bit better than average. Exactly. From Brown's NFL scouting report pre-draft: Brown was a first-team all-state pick as a prep after catching seven touchdown passes and racking up 17 quarterback sacks. He was also an all-conference pick in basketball and baseball, so Panthers coaches decided to take that size and athleticism and make him an offensive lineman. After redshirting 2016 to learn the position and get bigger, Brown started five games at right tackle before suffering a season-ending injury. He started 12 of 13 games played at that spot in 2018 before becoming a second-team All-Missouri Valley Football Conference selection as a 14-game starter at right tackle his junior year. UNI postponed its 2020 fall football season until the spring, but Brown decided to move on to the next level and accepted an invitation to the Senior Bowl He's a long, lean basketball player/TE (until he started trying to pump himself up to NFL tackle size) guy who really seems to have hit his ceiling. A project that isn't working, and they've stuck with him far too long. Projects like that shouldn't be plugged into an O line with an expensive franchise QB to protect on a team that is built to win today. They should have a chance to develop on some Texans type team.

Yep. Saffold was out of gas in training camp.

Agreed. I see a fairly lean year or two coming. They’ll still be a winning team if Allen is there and healthy, but the cap issues will really be a problem. My number 1 priority: protect the prize asset, Allen. Sacrifice on defense (something’s got to give) but you have to protect and prolong the good years of the only guy who will still be there when the window of opportunity flings open again. That means offensive line + a real running game. And if there’s a real talent at WR that you can afford, add that next.

“lucked” into Mahomes? More like we unlucked ourselves out of Mahomes.

Yep. Going into the season I praised Beane for somewhat upgrading the O line and doing it on the cheap. Turns out you get what you paid for.

That is indeed the model since that’s what Beane and McD are familiar with. The scary part for Bills fans: watching Allen take a beating and knowing that Cam was effectively done before he was 30 …

It’s not like nobody noticed this before yesterday. I took a quick look at everyone’s favorite whipping boy, PFF. Here’s how our offensive players rated this year: - Elite (score of 90+): Allen, Diggs - Very Good to Pro Bowl quality (80s): none - Good/starting player quality (70s): Dawkins, Singletary, Cook - Backup/role player quality (60s): Davis, Knox, Morse, Bates, Hines, McKenzie - Replacement level (50s): Brown, Quessenberry, Van Roten - sub-Replacement level (40s): Saffold So…2 elite players. 3 very good players (a bit charitable for Cook in my mind). And then a whole bunch of ordinary at best players. Not shocking at all: the O Line ratings. We saw Cincy’s backups far outperform our starters. Saffold looked done right from the start. Morse is nearing the end. Brown is a failed experiment, and Quessenberry remained a sack-generating machine. Bates was competent, but while you can get away with 1 or 2 such players on a line, there’s no hiding 4 of them. I see a lot of “Ike Boettger at guard” comments—I guess it’s better to have 2 Bates than a Bates and washed Saffold, but that doesn’t inspire much confidence either. As far as skill players: lots of good role players, but no standout of any type other than Diggs. We became extremely Allen-Dependent because there was no other option. You can’t make Davis into Tee Higgins, you can’t make Cook into Mixon (even given PFF’s grade inflation there). I don’t know where you find the line talent to upgrade without blowing the cap, but one thing I do know: there is no reason to ever keep a Replacement-Level player around if he’s earning more than the league minimum.

Sometimes the team builders are not destined to take their teams to the promised land. A lot of people have mentioned Tony Dungy in recent posts, but there are others too.

So you’re saying 2023 will be a down year.

I see what you're getting at here. But Daboll is not available. So ... Rick Dennison or Nate Hackett? All kidding aside, I think you're right. And I'd be on the phone with Greg Roman tomorrow.

I thought it was a good draft at the time. But you're right: it was definitely a need-based draft. The draft along with the signing of Von signified that this was a GM who thought one impact player, a few good athletes to phase into playing time, and some vet fillers on the lines would be sufficient to get the team over the top. They were wrong.

A Dorsey kind of play call.

I had made the same comparison. Burrow is Brady, or maybe Peyton. You saw him reading defenses expertly today, distributing the ball, moving well in the pocket to avoid the minimal pressure he got. He is absolutely right there with Allen and Mahomes. Meanwhile, Allen is Aaron Rodgers, or maybe Brett Favre. Nothing wrong with that. His game just isn't as precise, as disciplined as Burrow's. Or maybe he's the young Elway, still waiting for the right coach/OC to put in a system where he doesn't have to do it all by himself. No, I wouldn't swap Allen for Burrow. But I have to admit ... there is something to this^

Maybe a punt returner/speed/gadget play guy too? I mean, all we have available right now are McKenzie/Hines/Shakir/Cook

Partially agree. Frazier's scheme is McD's scheme. Frazier may move on, but I wouldn't expect McD to do something entirely different with a new DC