The Frankish Reich

The trade-weighted tariff average goes from 1.5% to 25.8% Does that look like a 64% rise to you like Fordney-McCumber 1922 was? Economic illiteracy? Math illiteracy? Both? EDIT: @Big Blitz - are you still struggling with the math? Here's a cheat: https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/algebra/percentage-increase-calculator.php The answer: 1520% increase. So your argument is this: a 64% increase in the average tariff rate in 1922 didn't cause an immediate recession; hence, a 1520% tariff increase in 2025 is nothing to worry about. Color me unconvinced.

I don't know who is feeding you these links (I suspect it's one of your Twitter feeds), but it would do you good to actually read the cited article before reposting an unrepresentative clip from it. I spotted this right away because CATO - a libertarian think tank - would never suggest tariffs are benign. Do you know by what percentage Trump's tariffs increased the average tariff rate? I'll give you some time to look it up. EDIT: Time's up. https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/

I don't think "rabidness of support" means what you think it means.

And just wait till they're "adjusted" up in the upcoming months. (isn't that what the MAGAs always say happens?)

Steve Rattner this morning: - Strip out the effects of Trump's tariffs (mostly increased beat-the-tariffs import activity) and GDP GREW by about 2 percent on an annualized basis in Q1. - So Q1 was, indeed, the continuation of "the Biden Economy" - sustained growth, low unemployment, decreasing inflation. Trump blew that up with anticipated tariffs, and then actual imposition of tariffs (which happened in early April, Q2). His analysis is obviously correct.

What exactly has the Germ Theory of Disease given us? Time to return to the turgid miasma theory. MAHA!! Has anyone investigated whether the environmental degradation of fracking causes measles? Because the Texas/New Mexico maps show a pretty strong correlation between fracking activity and measles cases. Get on it, RFK! Editorial comment: what a frickin idiot.

Proves what was pretty obvious. Goldberg said that it wasn't the first time Waltz had texted him. Waltz was providing info to Goldberg for a long time, trying to cultivate his reputation as a serious thinker on national security matters. This is the true reveal: most of those Trumpies who excoriate the MSM have a pretty good familiarity with MSM reporters who they selectively leak to in order to improve their public standing.

You are too kind. I can't really take credit for that one.

Not speculating about this accident, but its kind of common knowledge in Denver that Elway is a big drinker. Maybe too big.

https://www.duckhuntingchat.com/threads/tasty-juicy-goose-burgers.305513/

We did that in Denver. "Culled" the geese and ground them up into gooseburgers. I'm sure that's a lot more expensive than the Michigan plan, plus I never saw ground goosemeat in grocery stores. At a minimum wouldn't it make great pet food?

Now this is the kind of legislative gamesmanship MAGA voted for. Drain the swamp, unless it's our swamp, in which case please let it fill and become even more mosquito infested. Will that fit on a T shirt? A ball cap?

Tariffs also create something else economists hate: trying to game the system. Companies spending lots of time and money to try to minimize their impact like this: https://viewfromthewing.com/delta-beats-trumps-tariffs-new-airbus-jets-arriving-duty-free/ Delta's Airbus orders would be subject to a 10% tariff. So they take delivery of them in Japan and technically base them overseas so they are not taxed.

It looks likely that the next quarter will be negative too. So we're now to the point of whether it will be a minor dip/technical recession or whether the momentum will multiply.

Great story, thanks. Vibrational physics or whatever they call it. I had a college friend who went to grad school to study this. I guess you never understand why anyone needs it until you need it!

Not what I'm seeing, and I have a friend who works for the VA. What I'm seeing is major cuts in VA staffing, including in the people who help vets navigate the complexity of the system to get the care they need. What I'm seeing is an administration that's on a push to privatization of the VA, following the Medicare Advantage model. You may think that's a good thing long term or a bad thing. But whatever you think, that's what's happening. It is certainly not a strengthening of the in-house VA system.

Trump will want to back down on the tariff thing soon, but he's too stubborn to just delete the so-called "reciprocal tariffs." But he too will be overruled by forces beyond his control. The problem is even the threatened tariffs have already had a big impact on reordering world trade. Things are now baked into the cake. We see this in the shipping numbers, etc. I doubt we'll see COVID-style shortages, but we will see certain shortages of things people want and like, including crappy Chinese toys for Christmas and all kinds of other consumer items.

Reading the tea leaves in Trump's morning cup: - I see the White House trotted out ... PETER NAVARRO this morning. Ol' Pete is back. So that always spooks markets since he is, after all, Mr. Tariff. - Prediction: Bessent will pop up somewhere this afternoon or after markets close with some kind of phony "it's all a negotiations tactic, and we're really close" statement. Markets up later today or in after-hours trading. What fun. Trump has made this just like Bet MGM with tons of in-game betting options.

Worked for Jimmy Carter! Of course, the lag time was about 50 years ... by the time of his death, you heard lots of people talking about how he started a lot of the deregulatory/de-inflationary things Reagan doubled down on. Trump's approval ratings is bound to improve by 2075.

Great explanation. You should do some of these expert TV spots! So it looks like one of those crap happens, particularly in an extended deployment?

@sherpa, a bit off topic, but I would be interested in your (still semi-hot at this point) take on the loss of the fighter jet in the Red Sea. Thanks.

There will be shortages. Shipping data confirms that.

Good luck with recruiting, Petey Boy. That's America, c. 2025. They sign up because they like playing Call of Duty and Halo while eating junk food and think the military will be the same thing in real life.

And 4 years later, Trump's Commerce Secretary is doing photo ops in front of Biden's CHIPS Act factory in Arizona.

In the real world, I am thrilled that India is making progress. I'm just pointing out that shifting production from China to India doesn't really do anything for those would-be American manufacturing jobs. And it may be a niche, but lawyer pr0n is my niche, so please lay off. My barrister wig is my own business.