D. L. Hot-Flamethrower

I saw it last night, and it was a lot of fun. Went with my college age son, and he liked as well. Costner did a nice job, and Jennifer Garner looked great!

No it's not obvious. And, blowing the 9th pick-really!!!

Actually I undertook a rather painstaking effort to create a Draft Value Chart. Whether the guy is a 4 or 6 ,or whatever, he is compared to the spot he was drafted and assigned a different value. The difference between the two is the hit or miss. For example, a guy becomes a 10 value, say Tom Brady. But, as a late sixth rounder he may have a draft spot value of 1. He would then net a 9, well above the threshold set for a hit. Same thing the other way for a miss. Hope this clears things up. It is a too involved process to explain entirely in this format.

POS HITS% NEUTRAL% MISS% H/M RATIO LB 33 47 20 1.7 T 39 34 26 1.5 QB 42 23 35 1.2 DL 31 43 26 1.2 DB 41 41 38 1.1 G/C 31 38 31 1.0 WR 30 36 33 0.9 RB 22 34 44 0.5 TE 11 11 78 0.1 How would I use this data applying to the Bills at 9. NFL.com has the following players rated fairly closely. Ebron TE 6.4 Lewan T 6.2 Evans WR 6.2 Mosley LB 6.5 Clinton - Dix DB 6.1 Assuming the Bills ratings don't differ much. A big assumption I know! I would put Lewan,Mosley ahead of Evan and Dix, with Ebron bringing up the rear. I would be very leary of a TE this high. They have done very poorly by comparison. The thing about a pick this high is you cant afford to blow it. Get a good player who can play for a number of years at a high level. I am not advocating passing on a player ranked much higher. But, within our areas of need, and within reasonable scouting grades, get the most likely to succeed player.

As a follow-up to the topic I created a couple days ago relating to whether offensive lineman are a better bet than skill players at the top of the draft. I created a database of all players drafted between 1978-97. Why this period? Because from 1998 onward still has players who are playing and contributing. Also this marks the beginning of the 16 game schedule and it is a 20 year window. All told there were approximetly 4500 players (20*224 per year). I used PFR AV ratings and created a rating method for the players. And, a method to value each selection. I’ll spare you the gory details, you’ll have to trust me. Anyway, I came up with a system to rate the pick as at HIT or MISS, with most picks being rated as neutral. After all, that is really the question we are after isn’t it? Whether a pick was a hit or a miss at the top of the draft. BTW, this portion if only about the top 15-20 picks. I have much more on my database! One final thing about the ratings in case you don’t believe in them. Players were rated on a 10-8-6-4-3-2-1-0 scale. A typical 10 is Emmitt Smith.. 8 Andre Reed.. 6 Keyshawn Johnson.. 4 Henry Jones..3 Tyrone Wheatley…2 Antonio Edwards…1 Perry Tuttle…0 Gene Bradley (the immortal QB drafted 31? By the Bills and never played a game). A 10 made an average of 5 All-Pro teams, 9 Pro Bowls, was a 14 year starter and played 221 games with an AV of 128. An 8 made 2 AP, 6PB, 12St, 195gms,98AV 6s…. 1AP,3PB,10St, 180 gms, 78 AV 4s….. 1PB,9St, 156 gms, 58 AV 3s…..6 St, 123 gms, 39 AV 2s….3 St, 86 gms, 18 AV 1s…. 29 gms, 3 AV ZEROS…never played DRUMBEAT!!! The Offensive Lineman beat the skill guys pretty handily. Tackles had a hit rate of almost 40%. Overall OL hit on 36% of picks at the top of the draft. Skill guys hit on only 26%. QBs were the exception, with a rate similar to the O-Line-35%. Running Backs (22%), and especially TEs (11%) were the worst. How about the misses? TEs had a miss rate just shy of 80%! QBs and RBs were in the 40-45% range. O-linemen were best at about 25%,lower is better of course. Hope this helps some evidence to the point, and doesn’t just add to the BS. All for now.

Good Call Biscuit!!! I saw Casserly say this and I wondered what his motivation was? Production meetings for TV shows are funny thing. You take this side and Charley you take this side. The bottom line is no one knows who will succeed. It is all a guess. You find a guy that fits and do your best to develop him..then hope for some good fortune. As a follow-up to Casserly: Saying the field is better than Manuel is kind of like taking the field at a golf tournament.

Grabbing a Tackle, Big Receiver(TE?), and a guard are where It seems they are headed in the first three rounds. BPA in these areas when it comes time to make the pick.

This. A QB developing requires some good fortune on the spectrum of outcomes.

You got it! The original car chase movie, and he did almost all the driving.

Steve McQueen in Bullitt.

I I did this pretty quick and dirty. And AV is a rough approximation of value. The system ( not mine), supposedly puts players on an equal playing field. I should create a control group and test that when I have time. I do believe NFL teams believe in this thought process.

Not sure who you are talking about drafting instead. FAS lets call it Ebron. He and Lewan have been ranked very closely on anyone of a number of sites.Therefore, the logic stands take the lineman.

Nice Call

Very strong points indeed! Taking Ebron over guys like Matthews are the kind of picks you look back at and say what was I !@#$ing thinking! They go play for a decade for a divisional rival and make Pro Bowls. Vernon Davis, who is sometimes charitably compared to Ebron, took a long time to develop. I just don't want to risk a potential bust with a TE. Why not take the Tackle (Matthews/Lewan), Grab a good guard Gabe Jackson, Troy Nicklas at TE and a defensive end(Chricton). We can ball with anybody if EJ improves.

What do you know another high first rounder! That's great news!

Yes it does get taken into account. I think the biggest take away is, if you two players who are close in both need and ability, take the lineman. Absolutely agree. I would also add that WR is very deep in this draft. You can draft one of the top 3 tackles, and feel good that barring something bad i.e. fluke injury, with what you have done. It really sets the organization back to draft a player like Jamarcus Russell and get nothing in return. Very good analysis. Getting better in the O line is extremely important and doable. We have greatly improved our defense. Our Wide receivers are better. We have always been strong in the backfield. Like it or not, the team has chosen their guy at QB. That leaves the Oline. Glenn-Williams-Wood and 2 rookies like Gabe Jackson and Jake Matthews looks formidable and we would also have depth then. I don't think we can plan on not having injuries. Having a broken down line is a sure way to a bad season. I think you need to consider the risk associated with both Evans and especially Ebron. Grabbing one of the top 3 tackles is much less risky and fills a need.

I haven't done any research in awhile, but another blog got me to thinking-I know it's dangerous! The question I was pondering deals with success early in the draft. Which between an Offensive Lineman or "skill" guy, drafted in the first round, is a better bet? Using Pro Football references draft finder and approximate value the answer is pretty clear. Offensive Lineman drafted in the first 15 picks have produced a career AV of 56 and the skill guys only 45. For those of you unfamiliar with this system, a typical starter's season might be something like this: 1-4 weak starter; 5-9 solid to good starter; 10-14 star player; 15+ all-time great season. The eleven point career difference using this model gives you a pretty good idea that O-Lineman are a better bet. Also, If you carry this out to the top 30 picks, it will yield a similar result. O-Line is 47 on average, skill guys only 36. My conclusion, you on average get 25-30% greater career value by drafting an Offensive Lineman ahead of a Skill guy in round 1. The Bills have a better chance of hitting on their #9 pick by going with an offensive lineman. I am in no way advocating never taking a skill guy or a QB. Your thoughts?

Agreed!

A word of advice, remove that word from your vocabulary.

I think Crichton is a huge reach at that point

If there is something big brewing like trading up to get Clowney I am in favor of trading Spiller!

They appear to be building this team as a power running, big play passing attack offense. Pound, Pound, Pound..Big Play down field.

Not sure this staff views Spiller as special. Especially the way last year went, and his penchant for getting strung out. At Syracuse,Marrone used the speed back, Prince Tyson-Gulley, as more of a change up. Maybe Spiller will be traded to move up in the draft. They certainly seem to be bringing in power backs to OBD.

I think you are on the right track Kirby. They seem to be thinking about(doing) building up some options at WR and RB!

I'm wondering if the Bills are done dealing? I think not. Clowney? Doubtful we go receiver at 9. I think Bills will take a receiver later in the draft because it is so deep at the position. Could be we are going to stock up in the trenches early n the draft.