GunnerBill

He is definitely not the passer that Tua is but obviously he is more mobile and, critically, I think he is better mentally. That is his strength. He is better pre-snap, better with protections at the line, a great leader, resilient and just the hardest worker you could meet by all accounts. Would he work on a worse team? Not to this extent, no. But I still think his knowledge of the game and mental resilience would make him serviceable. When he went to Oklahoma after the disappointment of losing his job to Tua in 'Bama and got better I thought he proved a lot to people. I liked Hurts more than most coming out as a result but even I am surprised he has gone on to be a top 10 Quarterback. Just shows if you are willing to work and prepare and can respond to adversity you can go further than it appears your talent can take you.

Yep. Guys have to earn their place on the field. That's the NFL. The Bills have never been to scared to play rookies who deserve to play. Tre White started week 1, Zay Jones started week 1, Dion Dawkins and Matt Milano started by the middle of their rookie seasons. Tremaine Edmunds started week 1, Josh started week 2. Ed Oliver started week 2. Devin Singletary started week 1. Dawson Knox started by week 4 his rookie year. Gregory Rousseau started week 1, Spencer Brown started by week 4. Christian Benford (as a 6th round pick) started week 1. Dalton Kincaid and O'Cyrus Torrence started week 1. Guys who didn't start as rookies and then came on to become starters later it is Cook, Bernard, Shakir from that 2022 class and then Gabe Davis and AJ Epenesa. Of those only Epenesa was not the starter by the middle of year 2. He only really became a starter this past year in year 5. Maybe Bishop will come on in 2025 and end up on this list. It is still possible, it is my hope. But it is equally possible he joins Cody Ford, Boogie Basham, Kaiir Elam and Zack Moss as early picks that never earn a starting spot.

I am not throwing him to the curb. I am saying he wasn't out there because he was clearly a liability in coverage. The idea that just gets better if you stick him out there more.... well it didn't. He might just be a bad pick. He might turn it around. You get more opportunities as a 2nd round pick than if you were a 5th or 6th rounder. So Bishop is going to get more shots but he is already in a spot where he really needs to start taking them. If he does not win the job in camp next year (and I think he is competing with Rapp not Hamlin or whoever replaces Hamlin anyway... he is a box safety not a center fielder) then the prognosis does not look good.

Lower priority than what? I think it was by far the weakest spot on the Bills in 2024 and if you want a "you can win with a weakness in the regular season but it will get exposed against better teams in the playoffs" example then the Bills 2024 safety room is a textbook case. They either need to upgrade 3 spots (and that is on the basis Benford is fine to return) or they need to significant, sure thing, upgrades at FS and boundary corner and then let Rapp and Bishop compete for the SS job.

Fair although that is a 3 year sample size only with Kiper. On the hits out of the park that is sort of my point... they are all good picks that you mention but he needs a star other than Allen and hasnt found one. He hits 1s and 2s not home runs. Draft 8 upcoming. He has to start finding those elite difference makers.

Errr... he didn't improve in coverage AT ALL. He improved a bit in the run game but I honestly don't know how anyone can watch what Bishop put out there this year and say "I want more of that." He had two major blown coverages in the AFCCG. He is a liability out there in coverage.

I think Sirianni is fine. He isn't a bad coach but he isn't a great one. He had an awesome roster and two awesome coordiantors that he didn't hire.

I am not quite as high as some of you on Tabor. When he went back to Chicago as the STC under Nagy their coverage units consistently struggled. That said he is a big upgrade from Smiley and he did a pretty good job in his tenure in Carolina. He is legit qualified to do this job which I'm afraid Smiley never was. I would expect improvement in 2025.

Love Holland. He'd be a great addition.

Yea if he had stayed healthy he is a top 16 pick. I'd love Revel btw. Not sure they will do it.

Will they draft a guy coming off a serious injury? Just doesn't feel like their style. If they were to sign a 1-2 year FA deal with a solid vet maybe. I am not sure Revel gets to #30 though unless he fails re-checks at the Combine. And if he does he is off their board.

Oh yea I was not agreeing it was one player. I was accepting the OP's point that the Tre injury was the start of the end for that D. It was definitely the comination of injuries and age catching up with 5 or 6 of their key guys over a couple of year period.

It is a great roster and two great coordinators. All of which are Howie Roseman (who has total control of player personnel and made both coordinator hires over his HC's head last February). I am not saying Sirianni stinks. But honestly, I think he was one of the least consequential Head Coaches to a Superbowl winner in my 20 odd years watching the sport. This was a Howie Roseman Superbowl win.

You miss my point. I know you were comparing his big board with where Beane took guys not his mock with where Beane took guys. But my point is the study you refer to (if it is one I have seen) said Mel is consistently the most accurate was about mocking. It was not about are Mel's player evaluations generally proven to be more accurate when a guy gets the the pros than anyone else's.

Shakir had 800 odd. But he is what he is. A good complimentary piece. Not a feature guy

Yea I don't disagree that his biggest "reach" against draft media consensus was Elam. Although Elam was definitely a guy teams liked more than the talking heads. I remember the Athletic doing a piece a couple of years ago in which Brett Veach said if they couldn't get up for McDuffie he was Kansas City's fall back option. It was a case of the draft media being smarter than teams.

I believe that study was about predicting where guys get drafted, which is different from evaluation. Mocking is different than evaluating. Mocking is where you can use contacts and knowledge about what teams are thinking to build your mock. You mention Walter Football - they are second because Charlie Campbell, as their main guy, has great sources. Mel is still one of the best at that for the same reason - his sources are great.

Imagine his experience is attractive to them as much as an extra pair of eyes in the passing game. Schotty has put together a very young and inexperienced offensive staff. A first time cooardinator supported by a QB coach and an Oline coach that have never coached at the NFL level before, and the running backs coach has only done so for 3 years. Basically in terms of experience on the offensive side it will be the tight end coach and Dorsey. It is genuinely surprising to me how much a guy who has been around the league as long as Schotty has struggled putting together a staff. Even the Eberflus hire as DC (whichh I do think was a good one) allegedly was made by Jerry rather than Schotty.

I recall mentioning Brown as a potential target going into FA last year. He'd have been higher up my list than Samuel purely on the fact that he gives you more vertical ability than Curtis and that what I thought, and still think, this offense seriously lacks. That said Brown had a negative (coming off a career low year) and Samuel had a positive (success previously with Brady) and I know that when you are sitting in a personnel office making those decisions factors like that matter. Brown then got hurt and only made an impact right at the end of the year so I am not seeking to relitigate that decision as a "reason" for the Bills not getting past the Chiefs or anything, but if the Bills are WR hunting in FA this year it HAS to be a guy who can play on the boundary and can win vertically. Everything else should be secondary considerations.

I broadly agree with the premise. In 2021, the year they lost Tre on Thanksgiving, the Bills defense was: 1st in the NFL in yards 1st in points 1st in 3rd down % 1st in points per drive That D had a prime age elite corner for 2/3s of the season in White (26) and then Milano (27), Johnson (24), Hyde (30) and Poyer (29) fully healthy and in their peak performance window. Their rankings on defense have gradually worsened as that talent pool has suffered serious injuries (to White, Hyde and Milano) and aged out (Hyde and Poyer). 2022: 2nd in points 6th in yards 7th in 3rd down % 5th in points per drive 2023: 4th in points 9th in yards 19th in 3rd down % 7th in points per drive 2024: 11th in points 17th in yards 29th in 3rd down % 18th in points per drive I am on record as saying when Frazier stepped away that they would get worse on defense, and there was definitely an impact in that on what happened in 2023 and 2024, but the reality is the defensive performance has declined as the talent pool on defense has declined. They were at a point in 2022 pre-Tre's injury where they had one elite player and four very good ones in the back 7. As that has slowly been chipped away at the impact on performance has been clear. Interestingly the 3rd down drop off also coincides with the departure of Edmunds. And while I totally agreed with the decision to let him walk and he lacked splash impact plays... his length definitely helped on 3rd down where opposing QBs would see him sinking in the middle of the field and go away from him. Bernard makes more plays but to QB surveying the defense on 3rd and medium he isn't the same disincentive to throw in the middle of the field.

Physically, yes. But his identification of pressure was seriously impressive. I think fewer than half a dozen QBs in the league could have identified the pressure and adjusted protections as well as he did. That has always been Hurts' super power. He isn't the most accurate thrower of a football ever, he is a bit "see it, throw it" rather than someone who throws guys open but he works so hard and is so prepared. That boy had watched tons of tape of KC. It was really evident. There wasn't a blitz in Spags' bag he hadn't seen before on film and wasn't prepared for.

Yea. It was a mistake. But it is never one mistake.

And to be clear if it's going up like 2 or 3 spots (an Elam / Kincaid trade up) if he gets to 27 or something, sure, I'm all in. But I think his floor is Pittsburgh at #20 and I don't think he is of a the "worth giving away a second round pick" level in terms of both his ability and his fit for this team.

Agree with that. Lurie disempowered Howie once when he hired the ego maniac from Oregon who wrecked the roster in 2 years. He will never make that mistake again.

Absolutely not. But he does work for HANDS DOWN the best General Manager in football. The gap between Howie and #2 on that list is probably as big as the gap from #2 to #32. He is that far ahead.