BarleyNY
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Posts posted by BarleyNY
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1 hour ago, Rico said:
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"Music to my ears!"
If you’re a lover of SPARQ scores (or athleticism), this dude has the goods.
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8 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:
Except he doesn't.
Saying he gets 550-675 receiving yards a year, which equates him to a #2 receiver on most teams, only works if you assume running backs don't receive the ball at all, which most do, to some extent.
So he's not producing as much above other RBs as he is asking for.
Sport Trac actually did a good analysis on it, if I can find the article I'll post it, but he was only producing something like 10-15% overall more yards than the other top backs on the league.
They used the highest paid pack, Freeman, at like 8.25-8.5 mil per season, and said that bell is asking for almost double that, while producing 10-15% more stats.
Said that using that as a reference point, 10-12mil is fair, and that 15-17 is too high.
I think that it makes sense, but it's hard to quantify.
How much of his production is due to teams doing brown?
How much of Brown's is due to them stacking for Bell?
I would say that I agree with them that 10-12 a year is fair for him, and anybody who pays more than that is going to regret it.
Bell is threatening to retire if they franchise him again.
Brown and Ben are already locked up.
Bell is due 14.5 on the franchise this year even if they do.
Spotrac’s analysis of his value concurs with yours. They have him at $10.7M per year, which, as you mention, is well above the next highest paid RB.
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/leveon-bell-12329/market-value/
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Thanks for the hard work. Nice job!
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The beautiful thing about the question of whether Mills’ horrible play was intentional sabotage or lack of talent/effort is that the ultimate answer is the same: Replace and cut him.
For what it’s worth, it sure seemed intentional.
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5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:
You called Taylor a marginal starting QB when his first contract with the Bills was 3 years/$3.35 million. He was a back up before coming here. Why are/were you open on Taylor but completely shut the door on McCaron? especially when their situations are basically the same....even down to the late rounds they were drafted in.
Because they aren’t the same players and McCarron doesn’t have an NFL caliber arm. I never saw Taylor as more than a marginal starter who could be a short term bridge QB.
4 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:I’m just curious if you didn’t like the signing of Taylor in 2015....who you called a marginal starter.
I thought it was fine because he was supposed to be a backup QB. If the Bills intent when signing McCarron was for him to be the backup, then that would have been fine with me. But not to be the starter.
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5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:
It’s very early to determine if McCaron is starting quality or not.
Why exactly is that? Because he’s a Bill? If he was just named starter of the Dolphins we’d all be laughing at them.
Thats not to say that I don’t understand the signing. The Bills missed on the other QBs via FA and trade and it was imperative that they have somebody besides Peterman on the roster. He was pretty much all that was left. Fine. But let’s not pretend it’s something more than that.
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6 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:
I've seen him play in college and the pros. He's a much better passer then Tyrod. I guess that's not saying much but he plays QB better in my opinion. Tyrod is a gimmickback not a quarterback.
I do not see an NFL arm on McCarron. I can’t imagine how you do - other than wishful thinking. If other NFL teams thought he had a chance to be anything then one would’ve been happy to pay him large. Instead he signed a 2 year deal at $5M per season with a team in desperate need at QB.
6 minutes ago, /dev/null said:The 2001 Patriots called and wanted to let you know sometimes the guy who never should have been a starter turns out okay.
Gosh, you’re right. I totally missed that he’s probably another Tom Brady. Well played.
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1 minute ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:
I beg to differ McCarron doesn't have to be great to be better then Tyrod. Although Tyrod is in a much better situation in Cleveland with all those weapons now .
Have you seen McCarron play? I have. Again, we are going from a marginal starter at QB to a guy who shouldn’t be starting in the NFL.
2 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:Led ? He didn’t lead anything. He led as much as Jordan Mills did.
2,799 yards and 14 tds ? ?????.
Browns are a joke, as is Tyrod.
I always took exception to posts about Taylor being a leader as there was never any evidence offered to back that up.
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4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
You may well be right. I have not seen enough of McCarron to have a strong view.
I doubt either Tyrod or McCarron are still starting for either team by week 7.
I don’t know about that. It will largely depend on which QBs those teams draft and how patient they are with them. But it won’t be Taylor or McCarron’s play keeping them on the bench.
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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
I don't know who will have what at QB. Tyrod has an edge on McCarron I suspect though we haven't seen AJ play much. Neither are the answer at either spot. It really comes down to who does each team draft.
McCarron is a substantial downgrade from Taylor. We are going from one of the top 32 QBs in the league - even if he was well into the 20s on that list - to a guy who is not an NFL starter.
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1 hour ago, Turk71 said:
The Bills may or may not have contacted the Browns. We will have more as this interesting story develops.
Honestly, every competent GM would call on all of the other teams with high picks - except the teams in their own division. It’s due diligence and it means nothing (except that our GM is competent). They are all gauging the market.
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14 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:
In a FN heartbeat.
Yup
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3 hours ago, JohnC said:
A fresh start with a new HC would have been a clear line of demarcation from the failure of the past to a new start that didn't include the ridiculous losing history of the recent past. If as you noted Jackson was instrumental in the qb decision not to select Wentz then there was a greater reason to fire him.
If the owner was reluctant to follow the wishes of the newly appointed GM who wanted to replace Jackson because of financial reasons then that was a shortsighted decision. The decision to get the right HC has a greater bearing on team success and in the end resulting in increasing revenue. This is a case of penny wise and dollar foolish.
I could not agree more.
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2 hours ago, DCOrange said:
I don’t think Cleveland should take Barkley honestly. Hyde/Duke is a good RB duo as is and with all their Day 2 picks, they can add another very good RB without having to use the #4 pick to do so.
I dont think they’ll hit 8 wins this season but I don’t think buffalo will either. It’ll be close between the two teams this year but I like how Cleveland is building their team.
Agree on all thing she Cleveland. I think they’re another year away from finding their footing though. As for records, I’ll wait until closer to the season to make my predictions.
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7 hours ago, JohnC said:
We have had this discussion before where we both believe that the Browns have more younger core players than we do. And we both agree (I think) that if the Brown wisely use their draft capital and cap space that they can make a quantum leap forward with the impending infusion of talent.
The Browns installed a respected GM who surrounded himself with good football people. What I don't understand is why the new GM didn't clear out the coaching staff and start fresh. I'm not suggesting that Hue Jackson is a bad coach. However, he is a coach who represents the failed past. I thought that the new GM should have hired his own HC and make it clear that the franchise was on a new path.
The mistake that the Browns made was the same crushing mistake that the Bills made in that it declined or delayed to draft a high end qb prospect when they had the opportunity to do so. They passed on Goff and Wentz and last year they passed on Watson. They took Kizer in the second round when prior to that selection they could have had Watson.
Haslam kept Hue Jackson against Dorsey’s wishes because of clauses in his contract that would have dramatically escalated his compensation if he was fired before the start of the 2018 season. Expect him to have a very short leash if the season starts off poorly. Haslam should have eaten that contract anyway. Notably Sashi Brown wanted to draft Wentz at 2 but Jackson didn’t want him. Despite Hue spinning it the other way later that was known at the time of the trade to the Iggles.
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10 hours ago, Klaista2k said:
If we wanted to trade with the Browns for the 1st pick in the draft do you think they'd accept this offer?
Bills gets:
2018 Browns 1st overall pick
2018 Browns 4th round (101)
Cleveland gets:
2018
Bills 1st round (12 overall)
Bills 1st round (22nd overall)
Bills 2nd rounder (53rd)
Bills 3rd rounder (65th)
2019
Bills 1st round pick
Would that be enough to get it done?
No. The Browns aren’t trading #1 overall. You’re probably looking at something like 12/22/53/65 for 4.
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21 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:
Yeah but they bump out two players from top 51. That makes the first rounders more like 3.5 mill right? Later rounds are not expensive at all. Over the cap has you 10 mil number but that just adds the cost of all the picks. I don’t think it considers the top 51. Is @BarleyNY around to give his thoughts on the cap cost of the draft? I remember him having good insight last year.
@YattaOkasan Thank you. Yes, the Rule of 51 applies until final cut down day. Also correct that the draft pick number by OTC does not consider that rule. See, you don’t need me. ?
The one cap number that really sticks out is the dead money: $36M. That’s brutal. This is a season to dump the older players and usher in the new generation, starting with a drafted QB who will (hopefully) be the future of the franchise.
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Stupidest contract of the season so far. But you had to know that somebody was going to do something like it for him.
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8 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:
Nah Not too soon but already discussed ......
Currently only 34 players under contract.
I'd post the link to ,my 2018 thread, but people get touchy when I do .
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/yearly/cap/
Wow. Not a lot of important players signed beyond 2019 either.
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On 2/16/2018 at 1:11 PM, Jay_Fixit said:
Kiper is the Fresno of analysts.
He made his mark years ago when he was the only media person dialed into front offices around the league. Now no one is and he’s just living off of his old reputation.
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20 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Right, so let's say we say "Cordy Glenn, or a 2018 1st". Wouldn't the receiving team be all like "look, if you're willing to offer us a 1st how about you just do that deal instead?" Or alternatively, it kind of leaves us in limbo because they can throw Glenn and his salary back at us and take our pick at their option.
I would think that would be a bad deal for us, from a salary cap and draft capital management position.
The real issue it is that we aren’t going to get that much for Glenn on draft day. We could probably get it from a desperate contender who has an injury at LT after the season starts. That’s the time for premiums to be paid. But not on draft day. He’d go at a discount. I do like that you’re trying to find a way to get a QB though. I’d certainly sell out for one I believed in. I just don’t see how the Bills can climb up to the top of this draft. They’ll have to find another way to get one.
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Notably players tend to have the least value on draft day. QBs will always get a premium but any other position will be looked at as a dump by the team getting rid of them. Bad fit for new scheme or other issues - health, contract, attitude, etc. Draft weekend is a much better time to acquire a player than trade one away.
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Usually there’s an alternate compensation agreed upon should a traded player fail a physical. Player X or draft pick Y. IIRC Chip Banks was originally included in the trade that netted the Browns Bernie Kosar in the supplemental draft. He refused to report to San Diego and they got a first round pick instead.
Aaron Schatz: 2018 QB Boom and Bust Projections with QBASE
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Thank you!