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BarleyNY

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Posts posted by BarleyNY

  1. Just now, thurst44 said:

    Well, how about this, maybe not immediately presume your own team is terrible, and be absolutely unflappably sure about it. It's the "woe is us" "we're always the worst" postulating that is itself the worst, particularly coming off a playoff season.

     

    Is that what happened there?  Or did the poster compare the differences in the specific position groups?  Right now I’m struggling to find a position group that’s improved - other than the DL.  Several are definitely worse at the moment: QB, OL (by a whole lot), CB, LB and probably even WR.  But, as some have noted, this isn’t the final roster.  We’ve got the draft and cut downs to pick up help.

     

    The other point that has been brought up is point differential, which statistically is a better predictor of teams’ records the following year than their actual record from the previous year.  IIRC the Bills exceeded their prediction last season with 9 wins as opposed to their predicted 7 (I think it was 6.7or 6.8).  Their differential in 2017 indicated about 7 wins for 2018 too.  That explains the rebuild, which is actually comforting to me.  The McBean regime recognized that they overachieved last season and they’re preparing for the long term rather than fooling themselves into believing that they could stay the course and repeat their relative success.

     

    The upshot for me is that I won’t be expecting a great record next season, but I will expect to see a team building for the future and one that will fill some (but not all of its) holes and be competitive. 

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  2. 1 minute ago, thurst44 said:

    I think you may have wandered away from the point here. His argument was that we don't know what next year will bring for any team, so until anyone proves otherwise, we are what our record says we are. Ultimately, the Bills are the biggest of question marks, because the defense was dominant at its best (its stats were mostly obliterated during the three week stretch in which it fell apart) and we don't know what the QB or O-Line situation will be. Plus, from what we've seen of this organization and this administration, there will be many changes between now and early September.


    That being said, I don't really see where our talent level is that far from where we started last year, nor do I see how the Raiders improved from the bellyflop of last year (and we beat them handily), so I don't particularly buy that one, and feel like the Chargers are the most overrated team in the league for their "potential." Chiefs did a worse mid-season nosedive than we did. 

     

    Man do I hate the “who knows what will happen until the games are played?” arguement.  It’s reasonable t9 make educated guesses that can then be argued.  The alternative is never to speculate about anything. 

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  3. 7 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

    Before the draft they might have a good case.  We lost our three best offensive lineman, did little to address WR (we lost Thompson and picked up Kerley), our projected QB starter is a 5th round pick with little experience, we didn't do anything to replace Preston Brown, and I think Gaines is a better player than Davis at this point in their careers.  If we have a good draft where we keep most of our picks and still select a quarterback along with picking up some free agents/cuts to fill our remaining holes before the season starts, we should be at least competitive.

     

    Sadly accurate.  Making the playoffs last season will give this regime some capital with the fans and they’re going to spend a far bit of it this season.  It’s not a total tear down and they won’t be the worst team in the league, but it’s a rebuild and they won’t make .500 either.  Or rather they’d have to hit big at QB for a winn8ng record to happen.  

  4. Hearing Darnold is the Browns preference at 1 (not a stretch) and Chubb at 4 if he makes it there (ditto).  The 3 way trade is actually a possibility and would result in the Browns taking Mayfield at 2 (after Darnold going 1).  Darnold is also the only QB the NYG would take at 2.  Otherwise it’s Chubb or Barkley.

  5. On 4/11/2018 at 11:23 AM, Dalton said:

    The delta in the ceiling between Darnold and Allen is smaller than the delta between them in the floor.

     

    To me this is a clear risk management decision and Cleveland will select Darnold as a result.

     

     

    Gotta disagree on both.  Their floors are both rock bottom.  That delta is 0.  Allen actually has a much higher ceiling, although I’d certainly say the odds of him achieving it are even smaller than Darnold’s (which aren’t high). 

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  6. 16 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

     

    It's still a factor to be considered under windy conditions and with certain throws such as deep sideline outs.

     

    Deep sideline outs and other throws requiring arm strength are important in keeping defenses honest.  If you can’t make those throws then the short stuff won’t be there. 

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  7. 7 hours ago, stuvian said:

    I'll take Lamar Jackson all day

     

    Agreed.  Jackson is about the same caliber (albeit different specifically) of a QB prospect as Mahomes was.  It’d be odd to have punted on Mahomes at 10 last season only to go Jackson at 12 this season.  Still, I’d take it.  

     

    6 hours ago, stuvian said:

    worst case scenario is giving up a king's ransom in picks only to get Allen

     

    Also agree with this.  Yikes!

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  8. 9 hours ago, gobills1212 said:

    I agree. Somehow I missed this thread, but saw it on Twitter. 

    What I didnt understand and maybe someone can clear up is the Browns motivation to do this. 1 goes to 2, and 4 goes to 12.

    Taking a hit like that would require some serious compensation- so as much fun as it is to believe and read stuff like this- when I try and picture it in reality I get stuck on that.

    Maybe that's the 'other compensation ' but I cant imagine what that would be unless someone gets the Bills 2019 1st or something etc

     

    This is a common sort of flaw in many BS rumors.  One or two teams get what they want which creates a huge gap for another team.  It’d take more than the Bills 2019 1st rounder to make something like this happen.  And when was the last 3 way trade done in the NFL?  Has it ever happened?

     

    edit: I found one 3 team NFL trade in 2010 involving only day 3 picks and players.  That’s it.

  9. 8 hours ago, crack said:

     

    Did you hear that from a Bills or Browns source?

     

    Do you have any other inside info?

     

    Browns source.  And yes, it’s an inside source.  Subject to all the caveats that goes with that - especially with intentional misinformation flowing so freely this time of year.  Still, he was pretty adamant about the Browns not really wanting Allen.

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  10. 2 hours ago, Chuck Wagon said:

     

     

    Want to get real into the weeds....

     

    I wonder if the Browns and Bills haven't had a conversation.  I think it's pretty safe to say we want Darnold.  I think the Browns want that #2 pick traded before they draft.  I think there's a chance they've told us we can have Darnold if we go up and get him, something along the lines of "go to #2, we'll then flip 1 and 2, you give us back our Tyrod pick, you get Darnold, we'll take Rosen/Allen/Baker and save a little bit of money".  That could be the catalyst behind the trip to LA.

     

    I know the Browns and Bills have spoken about the #4 pick.  Also the Browns are pimping Allen to try to raise his stock so that he’ll go in the top 4 and improve the value of that pick - either by going 2 or 3 or a team coming up to 4 for him.  They’re definitely not selecting him.  That’s the one thing this guy has said that I can verify. 

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