Jump to content

Kirby Jackson

Community Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    29,395

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Kirby Jackson

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

     

     

    By that leap of logic........the Bills second round pick is then like a 3rd round pick.

     

    The reality is that the success rate in general drops in each subsequent round so a first round pick is still worth more than a second round pick, etc..

     

     

    I think that the truth is somewhere in between. As an example of the Bills offer their 2025 1st and their own 2025 2nd teams probably expect picks at like 28 and 60 (or whatever). If the Bills trade their 2025 1st and the Vikings 2025 2nd teams probably expect the picks to be like picks 28 and pick 43. 
     

     

    PSL Pricing/Seat Selection Discussion

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, NoSaint said:


    Yea, don’t quote me on numbers but I recall from the saints Super Bowl that each team gets like 1.5% of the inventory and the teams in the game get like 5% additional (those numbers are almost certainly off but at least vaguely in the ballpark)

     

    Then the league gets a chunk, sponsors, media, the host city team received a bump up in their allotment, etc…. 

    My buddy just texted me back. He works in a ticket office in the NFL. He said that he was at a meeting in January where they said that the participating teams get 4K-5K tickets. One of the last times his team was in the Super Bowl they had 11k so that’s way down. As a non participating team they have been getting about 650 tickets. So that math would say that roughly 30k tickets go to the teams. 

    PSL Pricing/Seat Selection Discussion

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    56 minutes ago, spartan19 said:

    I am in 111 and got a call last Friday from a Legends rep that was looking to dispel rumors and put my mind at ease.  I asked him what the policy was for deciding who gets a shot a Super Bowl tickets and he said it was a league policy and the Bills have no control over it.  When I asked what the policy is, he didn't know.  Not very transparent in my opinion.  Probably will end a run since '77, just doesn't make sense to be paying for the right to buy tickets until I'm 79 years old.

     

    Super Bowl tickets have always been a lottery system. It was always based on seniority. My guess is it is a combination of seniority and spend but don’t know the exact formula. It’ll be weighted somehow but not sure exactly how. 

     

    I don’t know if it’s common knowledge but each team gets a substantial allotment of Super Bowl tickets whether they are in the game or not. I don’t remember the specifics but pretty sure that it’s at least 1,000. I reached out to a friend to confirm that number and will update once he responds. If you do the math though & 30 teams not participating account for 30k tickets, the league & it’s sponsors must be another 5k-10k. That leaves roughly 20k per participating team. By the time you address the internal needs / sponsors they probably have 15k seats available for a lottery of season ticket holders.

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

     

    I don't know what is meant by "alpha" - that's usually a term used to reflect dominance, and a rookie really better have a more modest approach and, no matter how good he is, recognize the NFL equivalent of "that's nice sonny, but this here's the fleet"

     

    I personally hope the Bills draft someone who will be ready to step in play a majority of the snaps as the X receiver, if that's what you mean, because that's clearly where the gap in the Bills WR game is right now.

     

    I think I've queried you before regarding whether you're referring to Curtis Samuel as "a gadget guy that is good with the ball in his hands".  If so, I continue to think you're seriously mispresenting a receiver who, except for the season he was on IR, has been playing >60% of the snaps and contributing >60 receptions and >600 yds 4 of his last 5 seasons (the 5th season being, IR).  I agree he's not a boundary receiver, but he's way more than "a gadget guy", gadget guys don't take that many snaps or produce that much.

     

    WR, no.  Receiver, yes.

     

    I don't know if you've noticed, but "#1 receiver" seems to be a bit like the term "franchise QB" we used to bruit around all the time when we didn't have one.  It means different things to different people and folks argue about it without clarifying what it means to them or the chap they're talking with.

    I guess that I’m bullish on Samuel because I’ve seen so much of him. I saw every snap that he played at Ohio State. I’m a big fan of the player. He is still a converted RB, best with the ball in his hands. He isn’t a great route runner. He isn’t a pure deep guy. He’s a guy that will run some routes, catch screen, flares and get some carries. He’s a rich man’s McKenzie. If people are relying on his threat on the boundary to keep defenses honest, that’s not who he is. 

    • Like (+1) 2

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

     

     

    True, random things aren't relevant.

     

    But looking at how similar strategies have worked in the past is extremely relevant. It just is. There's no randomness involved here. They're looking at whether to follow the exact same strategy that produced the - failed - Sammy Watkins trade and many others besides. Un-random.

     

    And again, there's no particular reason to think the Julio trade was a success. They got a terrific WR, an all-timer. And they went from a 13-3 record the year before they drafted him to never winning a Super Bowl and having far more losing years than winning years.

     

    They will draft based on the quality of the players this year. Of course. Very fair and completely correct.

     

    But if they are smart - and they are  - they will strategize whether or not to make trades and particularly what kind of trades to make or not make, based on what has worked and what has very notably NOT worked in the past.

     

     

     

    Again, Massey-Thaler makes this clear. Massive trade-ups fail a lot more than they succeed.

    If we are going to “look at things that are similar” why is the Watkins deal more relevant than Julio? The Falcons were 13-3 the previous year with a franchise QB. They made a similar move in terms of how far that they came up. That’s way closer to this situation.

    • Like (+1) 3

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by Kirby Jackson

    16 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

     

     

    Sammy Watkins is absolutely a data point they've looked at. They'd be stupid not to, and they're not stupid.

     

    Is it one of the main things they're looking at, no, almost certainly not, but the likelihood of top ten receivers succeeding in justifying their draft spots completely is decent, but far from great. Same was true back when we traded up for Sammy. Which means that drafting a receiver high is a very reasonable move, but giving up a lot of valuable draft picks to do so is really really not.

     

    Sammy is part of the the phenomenon that Massey and Thaler reported on, that GMs consistently over-rate their ability to correctly know who to draft, and that inability to correctly calculate risks leads them to take risks that are stupid, specifically by giving up high round picks to move up to pick one guy. What they found is that moving up a bit doesn't seriously harm your odds, but that big move-ups should not be undertaken, as they significantly reduced the odds of draft success.

     

    The way to maximize your draft success is to maximize the number of darts you can throw, particularly with valuable big-time picks. There is an exception, trading way up for a possible franchise QB are worth doing because your odds of teams success without a franchise QB are so low. The same can't be said for other positions.

     

    And those guys are very very smart, they're not fans in Mom's basement. Thaler has won a Nobel Prize in behavioral economics, which is precisely the area they're looking at in this draft study. And all the studies - all of them - say the same. Drafting is too difficult. But these guys spend so much time studying and preparing and strategizing and discussing, that there tends to be a sense that with so much prep they gain more control. And you don't. These guys, NFL GMs, who know way more than the rest of us, still don't do well enough at picking to make really big trade-ups a good idea.

    Random things that didn’t work a decade ago, with different regimes, aren’t relevant. I promise you Sammy Watkins is not a part of the Bills decision making. There is no correlation. Julio is a better comparison and even that has no correlation. They will draft based on the quality of the players not a 2014 draft gamble. 
     

    As @dave mcbride points out, the data and analytics today are light years beyond what they were even a decade ago. The draft bust rate would speak to that too. Teams hit at a much higher percentage in 2024 than they did even in 2014.

    • Like (+1) 2
    • Agree 3

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, longtimebillsfan said:

    What hasn't changed is the fact that many wrs taken after the 1st round will exceed some of these 1st round "studs" in their NFL careers.

    Yep 

     

    The draft is an inexact science. Recent early WRs have been good (Chase, Wilson, Olave, Flowers, Addison, etc..). The top 3 guys in this draft have graded out as high or higher than any WR in the previous 2 drafts. There is no sure thing but not everyone has the same likelihood to succeed either. 

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    Just now, longtimebillsfan said:

    I disagree it is lazy thinking, but you are entitled to yout opinion.

     

    For years, many posters here have lamented that the Bills should not have wasted draft capitol to move up when that draft was do deep at wr.  That sounds very similar to this draft.  "Those that don't remember history are doomed to repeat it"

     

    Fans get so pumped up about certain players because these self appointed "draft experts" hype them in their mock drafts.

     

    The Bills have too many needs to burn draft picks on an unnecessary move up.

     

    There was another thread started recently that made the point that regardless of which wr the Bills pick in the draft, they would still need a #1 wr.  The op made a valid point in that thread.

     

    This is just my opinion for what it's worth.

    Um, it’s a different world than 10 years ago. The Bills have a franchise QB. The cost for a high end WR is roughly double the cap space that it was a decade ago. There are LOTS of logical reasons to go way up. Sammy Watkins not working out 10 years ago isn’t even a data point that the Bills are considering when deciding what to do. There is no correlation between him not working out and the 2024 Bills draft. Julio Jones is a better example because the Falcons had a high end starter and wanted to get him a star. That’s infinitely more relevant to this conversation but still isn’t a factor in the Bills decision making process. 
     

    Secondly, the college game changed the pro game not the other way around. NFL spread offenses designed to get the ball to playmakers in space are just copies of  college offenses. Receivers translate easily and for those of us that watch a lot of college football, those guys are easily identifiable.
     

    Does someone really believe that the WR that the Bills draft will not be their number 1 immediately?? 😂😂 Is that for real? The Bills have a solid slot WR with good production on low volume. They have a gadget guy that is good with the ball in his hands. If we do not understand that the draft pick walks off the bus as the alpha in the WR room we do not understand the current WR room.

    2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

    Road sodas has anti sources.

    I wonder how many people still get this reference? 

    • Like (+1) 3
    • Awesome! (+1) 1
    • Thank you (+1) 1

    TSW Mock Draft 3.0 - Completed!

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    With the 18th pick the Cincinnati Bengals select JC Latham, OL, Alabama. LA Rams @MrEpsYtown is on the clock.

     

    The Bengals targeted either an OL or Byron Murphy here. Once he was off the board, the Bengals shifted their focus to an elite offensive lineman. They are thrilled to get the guy that they have ranked as the draft’s top OL. He will start at OG as a rookie and transition to OT by year 2. He has all-pro upside at RT. We know the need to protect Joe Burrow and the value was too good to pass up.

    • Like (+1) 4

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by Kirby Jackson

    17 minutes ago, section122 said:

    A thought I can't shake:

     

    How many wrs currently in the nfl would you trade 2 1st round picks for?  It isn't many.  I get the idea of the player being cost controlled but I still have a hard time seeing it being worth it especially since it likely will cost additional picks.

    I think that the cost controlled IS the reason that a 2nd number 1 comes into play. The top WRs now account for like 12% of the cap (by the time Aiyuk, Higgins & Jefferson sign). It’s the 2nd most important position on the team (or at least right there with pass rusher). Top QBs, which we have, account for like 20% of the cap. It simply isn’t very easy to have both. You spend the draft capital on WR to free up cap space to spend on other areas.
     

    As an example, you could use 2 firsts and 2 seconds to move up for a number 1 WR. I’m not saying that you do or don’t do this. This is a hypothetical to illustrate my point. By using that capital to get the number 1 WR you save the $30M annually that it would cost to sign someone like that. You can then spend $8M on S, $12M on a pass rusher, $4M on a CB, $4M on a RB & $2M on a DT. So while you do not have as many picks to get those positions you can buy them instead. You’ll need to have cost controlled assets somewhere and in this example it is at WR. The point being that there are multiple ways to build a roster and decisions can’t be made in a vacuum because they are all intertwined. So while the cost to go way up, limits the high end swings you can take over the next few drafts, it also frees the balance sheet to be more aggressive in FA.

     

    Now obviously, if you can find elite talent without having to go up that’s even better. There’s a reason though that some prospects are universally ranked above others. If you go up you’re paying for that prospect’s ceiling and floor. 

    • Like (+1) 2
    • Agree 5

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    Can we make an agreement that we won’t compare whatever happens Thursday to trading up for a WR a decade ago?  In case people haven’t realized, the world is much different now. The Bills are Super Bowl contenders with a top 2 QB and missing WR1 & WR2. Additionally, a top end WR used to account for like 7% of the cap. Now it is almost double that. When you have an elite QB, you are really in a tough spot if you have to pay WR too. 

    • Like (+1) 10
    • Agree 3
    • Awesome! (+1) 3
    • Thank you (+1) 5

    Rumor: Bills trying aggressively to move up for a WR in round one

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

    Let's just pretend they get to 4. Who do you think they are taking in that scenario?

    MHJ

     

    I’ve heard that they love Nabers from a reliable source. I just can’t wrap my head around passing on MHJ. His ceiling is the best WR in football and a HOF career. His floor is pro bowl WR IMO. If you’re spending that kind of draft capital you want both the high ceiling and high floor.

    • Like (+1) 1
    • Agree 5

    Legette vs. McConkey

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

     

    love the idea of Cowing.  Also like the Fla WR as a 2nd round guy if we get Legette first.  I think Cowing may go earlier than some of the mock draft sims have him going.  I could see late 2nd, early 3rd.  

    He’s one of my favorite prospects!! I like Pearsall a lot too.

    • Like (+1) 1
×
×
  • Create New...