Kirby Jackson
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Posts posted by Kirby Jackson
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2 minutes ago, MarlinTheMagician said:
Maybe you're right, but I think he is good. No one really knows. But I remain glad the Jets didn't take him! When Rogers breaks they can roll with Tyrod instead of McCarthy. I'll take that!
I was hoping that the Jets would take him just like it was a good thing when the Pats took Mac or the Jets took Zach Wilson. You’re at least going to give him 2-3 seasons of failure before moving on. Tyrod is a very good backup and with that Jets roster will be at least .500 if he has to play 6 games. McCarthy, imo, could have been 1-5.
2 minutes ago, MarlinTheMagician said:He ain't like Mac Jones. Couldn't be much different. Jones has a noodle. McCarthy does not. And whether or not he is good, McCarthy got the dog in him, ex-hockey playing with a bit of nasty. Mac Jones = tennis player.
He’s AJ McCarron
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41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
Oh good we need more Ohio State fans around here...... 🤣
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This isn’t shocking. McCarthy isn’t very good. He was the guy, this year, that everyone used as the smokescreen. He was the guy that people kept hearing “would go higher than expected” and “possibly top 3.” In the end he was the 5th QB drafted.
People believed that the Pats might take him at 3 and that the Vikings, Giants and even Chargers, might trade up for him. In the end the Vikings offered 3 firsts for Maye over just taking McCarthy. The Patriots turned down 3 firsts and just took Maye. The Chargers (wisely) stayed put, selected Alt, and kept Herbert. The Giants took the stud receiver. The Vikings waited and eventually got McCarthy. I wonder though if they would have actually taken Penix instead had he been there at 11?
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I think yards for Shakir and receptions for Kincaid
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48 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
To this day in terms of draft value points spent in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft Sean McDermott (one year running the draft) has spent more than Brandon Beane (seven years running the draft). We have a Carolina drafter doing Carolina drafting.
It's all about Beane.
Thank you!! That’s been my issue. It is certainly a bigger issue for me because of my concerns with Coleman but it’s a bigger point. If you have Josh Allen, my belief is that you will win BECAUSE of him not WITH him. You need to do everything you can to build up his playmakers. You need to give him guys that can make plays on their own, besides for him. Give Josh someone that is going to catch a 6 yard slant and take it 65 yards. Instead, the philosophy is Josh will side step 2 rushers, roll right, make another guy miss, toss it 45 yards down the field, to some guy that make shake free 9 seconds into the play, in hopes of scoring. I think it’s a mistake.
Defensively, you need pass rush, LBs that can cover and smart DBs that don’t give up big plays. Defensively, the scheme is what you should win with. Offensively, you should win with the talent. The Bills have not adopted that philosophy. They’ve spent prime assets and big FA dollars on the defense. The irony is that the defense has largely been the same whether Dane Jackson, Levi Wallace and Christian Benford are back there as opposed to 1st rounders in Tre and Elam. They gave Von a zillion dollars and the pass rush is the same. They used a 2nd on Basham and are better off with Kinsgley Jonathan, etc…
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6 hours ago, Beck Water said:
C'mon Man.
2020: traded 1st round pick for proven successful NFL WR
2021: no offensive skill players
2022: 2nd round RB who has had 2254 combined scrimmage yds in 2 seasons
2023: 1st round TE who pulled in 73 receptions his rookie season
2024: 2nd round WR said to excel at contested catches, an ability we haven't had
That's not consistent with the picture you paint of "big sluggish late round fliers, street FA and UDFA"
I disagree. This is prior to this draft so it moved some but:
Since 2018 (Josh draft) the Bills have spent 2739.8 draft value pts on 6 DL; they’ve allocated 144.1 draft value points to 7 WR. If you include Diggs that’s 924.1 points. That’s an average DL draft spot of pick 44. It’s an average WR spot of 177 (96 w Diggs). The Bills continue to allocate their best resources to the defense.
That’s not good enough. When you have a HOF QB, you should prioritize his weapons, not hope that he elevates role players.
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26 minutes ago, NewEra said:
Do you think Benjamin is comparable to Keon Coleman as an athlete?
I think Coleman is more explosive and smoother. They have similar straight line speed but Coleman’s a better athlete.
The point was, that Beane once liked Benjamin too. He drafted him in the 1st and traded for him. Beane doesn’t value quickness, speed and space as much as he values size. I think that’s an antiquated philosophy. I wouldn’t add guys that run 4.71 coming of a full season suspension for gambling. I’d rather take a flier on someone more explosive.
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46 minutes ago, Pete said:
What I read was that Cephus had covid when he ran the 40. He later ran a 4.52. He is a fast twitch player with great numbers 40 yard dash, vertical, and bench. Between Cephus, Coleman, Hollins, not to mention Shorter, Shavers, and Hamlin- they all are 6'2 and taller, strong, my ball, mismatches. It seems to be the type of WR Beane likes
He loved Kelvin Benjamin too. While everyone gets faster, we get big, sluggish, late round fliers, street FAs, and UDFAs to support our HOF QB.
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They are trolling us right? It’s like a science experiment.
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26 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
One, I was high on him coming into the draft and you can see that in my posting history. So this isn’t me “wanting” to be happy with the pick, it’s me being happy with the pick because I spent a lot of time on the WRs this year, including talking to people I trust.
Everyone is going to have different opinions, but all the whining (not saying you) and labeling the kid as a bust or capping his potential by people around here who nothing about him or that getting separation and open has very little to do with 40 times is as over the top as it was on Josh Allen, Bernard, Milano, etc.
Let the kid play. He’s gonna prove a lot of problem wrong around here and I’m very confident about that personally.
Obviously we differ on Coleman. For me, it’s bigger than just him. They needed more speed. They needed another guy that can run routes and eat targets. They didn’t invest enough resources into WR (regardless of the Coleman pick). My philosophy is that if you have Josh Allen, your biggest responsibility is loading up around Josh Allen. You do that at the expense of other parts of the roster. The Bills differ philosophically. They have neglected the 2nd (or 3rd) most important position. They need Josh to cover up and elevate those around him.
I so desperately want you to be right. Josh Allen had similar odds coming out and he overcame it. 🍻
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55 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
I legit can't think of one of the top of my head
Maybe chargers?
They are possibly worse. They spent a 1 last year (although it hasn’t looked good so far) and an early 2 this year. They have potential but aren’t good right now either. Palmer isn’t horrible and Rice is another lottery ticket. They probably have a higher ceiling than the Bills but potentially a lower floor (although I think McConkey is pretty safe). They are certainly near the bottom.
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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Im not discrediting facts, I literally said I trust the facts coming from actual professionals not a fantasy football fan who turned his love for fantasy football into a job.And you just shared a scout comparing him to a borderline HOF WR. If he has the same rookie season Boldin had we might finally advance in the playoffs.
PS: He’s also faster, taller and more athletic than Anquan Boldin.
There’s another scout saying, “he doesn’t separate and is a number 3.” I get that you want to be happy with the pick. Pretending that he isn’t polarizing and discrediting MULTIPLE reliable sources that don’t like him isn’t helping your case. If you believe that HE IS GOOD AT SEPARATING please provide the data that disputes Harmon’s analysis. Otherwise, it’s just blind homerism.
We all want him to be great. Some of us are just willing to use actual data, analysis and film study to identify his strengths and weaknesses. We don’t need to pretend that he’s someone that he isn’t and we don’t need to discredit reliable sources because we don’t like what they are saying. It’s okay to live in reality. That doesn’t make you a worse fan.
Also, do you care to list the WR groups worse than the Bills or are you still avoiding that harsh reality?
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26 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
What I am saying is that Matt Harmon doesn’t have the same qualifications to make that assessment over people who know a lot more about film breakdown, football, scouting, and grading prospects who don’t have the same concerns about him getting separation in the NFL.
So going back to the original point…Coleman was not as “polarizing” as you put it among the experts that he was amongst the fans, and Mark Harmon is a fan you created a career around fantasy football breakdowns. He isn’t a trained scout. And most real football professionals were very high on him and had him generally ranked in the WR6 range ahead of most the WRs other people wanted us to draft.
So you disagree with the 35 names that he names with similar profiles? Instead of agreeing with the data, we are going to discredit the (reliable) source? We have so much of that in the US right now. If you don’t like the facts, poke at the source.
Here’s a scout that says he doesn’t separate (feel free to discredit him):
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
Nope. LAC is the worst "proven" group. But they have 3 new wildcards to throw at it. Ours is probably second least proven and we added one dart but a second tier one. New England is probably slightly more proven (never been a big Juju guy but do like Kendrick Bourne and that duo more proven than Samuel and Shakir) they have two low second high third tier new darts in Polk and Baker. It is much of a muchness.
Bourne is my favorite of the established WRs on any of those teams. He’s pretty good IMO.
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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
For what our need is I agree. Chark is the best fit. I actually wanted him last year.
I have us New England and LAC as the worst 3. I don't think ours is worse than theirs necessarily but it isn't better.
That’s fair. None are very good.
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9 minutes ago, FireChans said:
No one will take you up on this because anyone who believes the Bills have a good WR room doesn’t follow the league as a whole.
Some guy on Twitter yesterday listed Washington, Carolina and New England. Carolina has Thielen, Legette and Dionte Johnson. That’s 3 guys all better than our best (plus Mingo). The Pats have Juju, Bourne, Douglas, Baker and KJ Osborn (who people here wanted). That’s not good but better. McLaurin is miles ahead of anyone we have. Even if the other guys are a bit of a wash, Washington is better because of McLaurin. It’s a harsh reality and people (especially homers) don’t want to hear it. The Bills WR room is bad and doesn’t have the diverse skillsets needed. They don’t have a vertical threat, they don’t have a great separator, and they don’t have anyone that has proven they can handle large volume (despite having 300ish targets from last year gone).
5 minutes ago, transient said:So out of curiosity, I went back to last season's stats to look. Here are the targets:
Diggs 160
Davis 81
Shakir 45
Sherfield 22
Harty 21
Among WRs that's 329 targets. I think you can make up 329 targets between Samuel, Shakir, and Coleman with a combination of Hamler, Hollins, and whomever else they bring in added in.
Among TEs it was:
Kincaid 91
Knox 36
Morris 3
Gilliam 1
Among TEs that's 131 targets. Kincaid was already shouldering a pretty big load, and there's no reason to think he couldn't hit 120+ targets in season 2 IMO.
Among backs:
Cook 54
Murray 22
Johnson 7
Harris 2
So for the backs that's 85 targets. I could see Cook's workload going up out of the backfield if he learns to concentrate on catching easy TD's, and R Davis was a weapon out of the backfield in college.
I'm not saying it's going to work. My biggest concern is who's going to draw the coverage that Diggs did and can these guys step up. My point is that from a purely numbers standpoint the WR targets are not insurmountable with this group.
Maybe not insurmountable but we are asking a guy like Shakir to have 2.5-3x as many targets, with significantly more defensive attention (and limited space to work with). That’s a big ask.
Coleman is a guy, to quote Buddy Nix, “that’s open when he’s not.” That doesn’t feel like a high volume skill set. If he gets what Davis got, that would be a lot. You’re still looking for another 130 or so targets from the WRs.
Call Samuel 90 for the sake of this. That leaves 40ish for the other scrubs (roughly what the scrubs got last year).
It’s a big ask for guys that haven’t seen the attention that they’ll see now. The Bills have quality role players playing leading roles.
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4 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:
Chark would be a big upgrade over Sherfield.
I don’t know about “big” but definite upgrade. Sherfield caught one more TD than me (that one that bounced in the air). That guy sucks.
The Bills are okay at WR depth imo. The problem is that they’re missing the top of the depth chart.
Just now, davefan66 said:
Rank how? Do a WR for WR rating?Naw.
Plenty of good WR rooms in the NFL. Not all of them do well. Need the right QB making the right reads. Offensive coordinator calling the best plays. Offensive line allowing for plays to develop. Way more than to a successful offense than just having the best receivers. Oh, and having one of the top 3 QB’s in the league helps.
Have to ask? What do you rank the chiefs WR room? Probably pretty low. Won the Super Bowl.
So you like it better than last year but won’t compare it to others? Got it.
I’m not picking on you. A lot of people are saying that the WR room is pretty good. When you ask them to compare it to others, they won’t because it becomes real. They are absolutely in the bottom 3 and may be last. If you go team by team and compare them it’ll reveal a harsh reality.
As for the Chiefs, they are probably 20ish off the top of my head. They used early picks on Worthy, Moore, and Rice. Toney and Hollywood Brown are former #1 picks that they are trying to rehabilitate. They’ve allocated resources to the WR room. It’s not great but light years ahead of the Bills.
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1 minute ago, transient said:
Not fundamentally disagreeing, but even as a hybrid player, in that season in Carolina with Brady as his OC he saw ~100 targets (I don’t know the breakdown of targets lined up as WR vs out of the backfield). I don’t think he sees Diggs 160 targets, but I’m also anticipating they want to spread those targets around more. For better or worse, I think they’re taking the approach that KC has since trading Hill, rolling without a true WR1 and hoping to make up the production with a cast of WRs.
There was a lot made of the depth of the WR class in the draft, but it seems to me a lot of teams passed over a number of “highly touted” players a number of times before they finally came off the board. Suggests to me it was a bit overhyped, and with all of the recent holes created on the roster Beane decided he could get more value selecting other positions and addressing the WR room this season with lower tier FAs. It’s hard to imagine a WR drafted in the 3th rd and beyond generating much production this season anyway.
Even if he is at 100 as a “non traditional WR” there are still a whole bunch of targets unaccounted for. Do the math and find the 600 targets within this group. It is not an easy exercise.
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21 minutes ago, davefan66 said:
It’s not a popular opinion to believe the Bills WR room is better than last year. I think we are better this year for sure.
Davis cost us with his drops last year. Love the guy, but was time to move on.
Diggs is addition by subtraction. He was a locker room issue which was verified by a few people. Either way, both Diggs and Davis disappeared late last year.
Harty and Sherfield were non contributors. Their fault? Maybe. first Offensive coordinator? Maybe.
Shakir will have a breakout season. Coleman is going to be better than people think. Kincaid will be counted on for catches. Cook with the addition of Ray Davis will be more of a receiving threat. Samuel will be good. And don’t forget Justin Shorter.
We will sign a a FA WR (per Beane) to fill out the receivers.
Josh is our QB. We will be fine.
1-32 where to you rank the Bills WRs? I’m not talking about the TEs or RBs. Where do you think that they are in terms of WR rooms? Please list all of the teams that you think are worse than them.
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23 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
You think making charts for fantasy football purposes of things that already happened equates to him breaking down film and analyzing prospects and the nuances of their positions to determine their actual strengths, weaknesses, and abilities to develop at the next level?
Analyzing stuff for fantasy football has no automatic correlation to scouting and grading college prospects.That’s not what happens. @LEBills explains it perfectly. He basically judges route running and ability to get space. Coleman was not successful at that. It doesn’t mean that he can’t be a good receiver. If you watch the video it names other guys with similar separation in college that succeeded as pros (Kupp, St. Brown, Boyd). They were all big slots though. Guys that got similar separation to Coleman in college have not translated to the boundary in the NFL. He lists the names. You can defend the WR room all that you want. If he succeeds on the outside, he will be an outlier. Josh was an outlier. It obviously can happen but it would be overcoming math and data.
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18 minutes ago, LEBills said:
The good with Harmon’s analysis is that he does a pretty good job isolating the WR and their route. So if one WR has a good QB getting them the ball or a bad QB not getting them the ball, it can account for bad stats.Where I think RP is a bit flawed is that he basically solely looks at how a player gets open. So for example he - and a lot of people - loved Ricky Pearsall because he does run good routes. But it doesn’t really take into account that the boy is light, struggles with physicality through the catch and as a runner. It also doesn’t weigh for age where Pearsall has had 3 extra years of life to develop his route running than say Keon Coleman
So it’s a good way to tell you how good of a route runner a player is right now. But not exactly what they will become and how they are in other aspects of being a WR. In general, Harmon’s RP is very good though.
Very fair and thoughtful analysis 🍻. Agree wholeheartedly
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5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Every player has critics, and I hard disagree about Matt Harmon who is just a fantasy football commentator.You think that the guy that founded reception perception, and charts every route run by WRs is “just a fantasy football guy?” That feels like you’re grasping at straws to fit the confirmation bias.
I’ve said that the Bills are inarguably a bottom 3 WR room and may be last. Feel free to list the ones that you think are worse but be prepared to defend it.
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26 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
No disrespect, but the only people Coleman was polarizing too were fans who don’t understand WRs or that 40 times are the most over rated and meaningless stat, especially when discussing separation. These are the same fans that don’t realize that Coleman ran a faster 40 at his pro day too. The same fans who don’t know that his 40 time is faster than DeAndre Hopkins, Cooper Kupp, Brandon Marshall, Larry Fitzgerald, and so many more elite WRs.
GMs, scouts, analysts, etc don’t find him “polarizing” and love this guy and his potential. New England was trying to trade ahead of us to get him at end of first round and couldn’t pull it off. His avg WR ranking was WR6 and ahead of so many “speedy” guys for a reason.
Matt Harmon is THE guy when it comes to WR analysis. I posted his video on Coleman earlier. There were LOTS of people that thought he was polarizing. That’s not an opinion. People talking about his 40 time are not people that thought it was controversial. People talking about his lack of separation are the ones that had an issue.
I don’t care if he’s a 4.5 guy or a 4.6 guy. I care that this is what his route tree looks like:
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18 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:
And the Bills had a first round pick and couldn’t get Odunze, Harrison OR Nabers. Idiots. Even after that stupidity they could find a rookie that could handle the load you deem impossible for 2nd year Kincaid. Idiots. Plus the guy they picked was not desired as much as a guy that looks just like Cooper Cupp. I mean…..Cooper Cupp and he looks just like him.
I’m guessing sarcasm? I don’t even understand the last part about “Cooper Cupp.” Cooper Kupp is an elite WR. Coleman has some similarities to Kupp coming out in terms of their separation issues. Kupp is a big slot though. The guys that have succeeded without separation have been big slots. If you don’t believe me, maybe you’ll believe WR guru Matt Harmon. Listen here as he explains:
In terms of the volume, Kincaid will have a hard time handling it with 11 man boxes. The Bills needed some guys to run routes 20 yards down the field to open up the underneath. Underneath is where the guys currently on the roster succeed. That will be really crowded.Also, when it comes to “volume” a raw rookie who lacks separation isn’t a guy that eats targets. If they would have taken someone like McConkey (not my favorite of the options but better than Coleman) his skill set would have allowed for volume early. The Bills have roughly 600 targets to go around this year. How do you see them divided? Keep in mind that Diggs, Davis, Sherfield and Harty combined for like 300 last year.
Before you tell me that Curtis Samuel (who I am a big fan of) is going to be the main guy, here’s what his GM had to say on him:
Here is how his OC used him when they were last together:
Again, I like the player but if you think that he is the number 1 WR that’s going to see the 160 targets that Diggs saw, we aren’t close to agreeing.
Feel free to be comfortable with the WR room. I’m not and gave some of the reasons above. I would have pushed my chips in for an alpha. If you disagree, what is it that you like about them?
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The Vikings allegedly tried hard to trade up to #3
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Agree to disagree I guess
I don’t think that he’s very good. He won a lot on a team that almost broke the record for most drafted players in a single draft. They had 13 guys selected (UGA has the record at 15). The team was loaded. They won with him WAY more than because of him. In the right situation, maybe he becomes an effective game manager (like Brock Purdy). Personally, I think that he was overdrafted as an over correction to Purdy falling to last.