Kirby Jackson
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Posts posted by Kirby Jackson
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14 minutes ago, <bills4life> said:
I agree with everything you said. However I don’t want to underestimate Khalil shakir and dalton kincaid. If both continue to improve and Curtis Samuel with josh allen clicks, the wr room may not be as bleak as we think.
I think all 3 of those guys can play. I just think that all 3 of them are being forced into roles that they aren’t capable of (or yet in Kincaid’s case). Kincaid has a chance to be one of the best TEs in football. I don’t think that he should be the top receiving option on a Super Bowl contender at this point in his career. Samuel is a dynamic player with the ball in his hands. He has Deebo qualities. He’s meant to be a change of pace guy not a boundary receiver with volume. Shakir was very good late last year out. He’s versatile and can also run after the catch. I’m just not sure that effectiveness will translate with 100+ targets and defenses focusing on him. They are all good and would be even better with the right people above them on the depth chart (or at least alongside of them).
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1 minute ago, billsbackto81 said:
I can actually hear the crowd in the stadium singing this in unison after a DJ TD!!
I don’t know. I would guarantee 3+ years of Chark at this point in his career.
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7 hours ago, bills6969 said:
BuT hE dIdn’T pRiOriTize WRs tHat cAn geT seParAtIoN
That’s like not prioritizing “pass rushers that can rush the passes” or “offensive linemen who can block.” Imagine living in a world where you don’t think it’s an important skill for a WR to get open. 😂😂
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Lol, this is the saddest thread on here in a while. There are people on here that think this WR room is good. We are now suggesting ways to make it even better!! People are talking about adding (in no particular order): Chase Claypool, Kenny Golladay, washed Michael Thomas, washed OBJ, and washed Allen Robinson.
What are we doing here? The Bills needed to upgrade the WR room. They needed 2 boundary receivers at the top of the depth chart. They added one guy that was the most polarizing WR prospect, in arguably the greatest WR draft ever. That’s a massive failure. You aren’t going to dig yourself out by adding Kenny Golladay. As it stands the Bills have the worst WR group in the NFL. The TEs are good and the backs can catch but the WRs are last IMO.
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Absolutely didn’t do enough. I think that the Bills inarguably have one of the 3 worst WR rooms in the NFL. It may be last. I’m not talking all pass catchers. When looking at just WR the Bills are somewhere between 29-32. Josh will need to be Superman again.
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2 hours ago, White Linen said:
And I didn't think I'd have to address a question like, do I think each team watches 16,000 players individually.
So we agree, professionals create the base for amateurs to pretend they are equal to them.
No, we don’t agree that “professionals create the base for amateurs to pretend that they are equal to them.” We agree that, “professionals divide and conquer the intial list so that each team isn’t trying to figure out who to scout. In the process that universe of players then get scouted in much greater detail by professionals, amateurs and analysts alike.”
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Best pick so far.
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6 minutes ago, White Linen said:
Yes, as a collective and thats how the information gets to Kiper, Gunner, etc.
Are you suggesting that that Gunner is getting this information from his resources, without the baseline built by the pro's? 😯
No, I guess that I didn’t think that needed to be said. Draft evaluators use a top 500 or whatever to go through. That’s established through collective scouting.
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23 minutes ago, White Linen said:
You're not using the foundation the professionals built for you?
Because the gap is even wider than people think.
Are you suggesting that NFL teams evaluate 16,000 players 😂??
I don’t know if this is still the process but the BLESTO scouts meet in like a month. The teams all share and narrow down the guys to watch in the fall. They narrow the list.
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10 minutes ago, julian said:
It was about TBD posters and their draft evaluations, but even the Matt Miller’s aren’t questioning dozens of former teammates, coaches, front office personnel and random facility employees to gather as much information as possible to ensure as little risk as possible is taken at each selection.
Although I’ll grant someone Like Miller is at least getting some of that information from team sources, the TBD draft guru is not getting the full picture.
Anyway, I’m sure you’re convinced if your stance and I respect your opinion.
One poster (currently) that I’m suggesting is doing the same level of research (minus the 1st hand information part). I’m not speaking from what I think but rather what I know. Is there a difference in information between an NfL team and amateur scouts? Of course. Is the gap as wide as people think? Nowhere near
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2 minutes ago, julian said:
We can just agree to disagree, I will say your 90% number you came up with fits your narrative but in no way is remotely close to reality.
we just have differing opinions, it happens, have a great remaining draft weekend !!!
I’m not saying that most do that level of work. Charting 3 games (or whatever he does) for 140 players is much closer to the scouts than it is to the guys watching YouTube highlights. Guys like Matt Miller do that level of work. NFL teams aren’t doing significantly more. They are evaluating more people but not significantly more depth. That’s reality whether you want to believe it or not.
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1 hour ago, julian said:
If you’re suggesting any poster, not just the one in question are essentially running an NFL equivalent evaluation and scouting process here on TBD, then I have a bridge to sell.
It’s cool that fans find so much enjoyment in closely following some college players in an attempt to replicate what the professionals do for a living, but it’s for fun and I’m sure they themselves would admit it.
I don’t put anymore stock into some dude on CBS sports crafting his top 100 than I do a poster here who spends his spare time evaluating college players, neither of them are playing with a full deck of cards.
Its good fun though.
Not trying to be “that guy” but that’s exactly what I am “suggesting.” Scouts follow a very similar process (one of my best friends is a Bears scout). They just have the interview portion. 90% of it is the same.
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10 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
Know who had the highest yards per target of anyone with 45 or more targets?
Khalil Shakir. Aiyuk was 2nd. Don't sleep on Shakir...expecting big things this year and he is going to catch a lot of people sleeping
Not sleeping on him. I like him a lot. I hope that it translates with more volume and attention.
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1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Yes another great example. I wouldn’t say we are desperate though, Coleman is 100% a boundary WR. I’m not 100% even sure we do take another WR, but I think we probably will.I think Tez Walker is a guy to watch as we met with him a lot. I can see us moving up to get him potentially as a deep ball guy. Or who knows, maybe the Franklin meltdown crowd will get their guy.
Watch Matt Harmon’s video on Coleman. Guys with his separation that have succeeded have been big slots (Kupp, St. Brown, Boyd). Now maybe he beats math but if we believe that he is 100% boundary he would be an absolute outlier. The need is still desperate imo.
Tez and Franklin are options. I like Baker and Washington a lot. Cowing (another slot) is a guy that I’m high on. There are good receivers left.
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I love the list. I’d like to add Xavier Thomas as a lottery ticket pass rusher.
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6 minutes ago, zevo said:
fans here are totally writing off Samuel and Shakir. Have no idea why. Shakir is a breakout candidate. and we already know Samuel ability.
I don’t know if it is writing them off as much as not thinking that they are adequate at the top of the depth chart. If Shakir was the slot guy and Samuel as the McKenzie role, with Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams (for example) I would love the WR room.
When I look at the top of depth charts though, the Bills WR room is near the bottom of the league. Obviously the Bears are an extreme example but they have DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze as their top 3. The Bills have Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel as theirs. Shakir and Samuel are fine football players but they aren’t Chase/Higgins or Hill/Waddle etc…
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9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Are you serious? What round was Diggs drafted in? How about Antonio Brown? How about Milano? Shakir? Taron? What about Brady? How about Pacheco?
I will never understand this notion so many fans have that you can only find great players in round 1 or maybe round 2. The draft proves that wrong every single year.
Puka Nacua is an even better comparison. He was picked at 177 overall twelve months ago. He had 105 catches for 1486 yards as a rookie. Obviously that’s an outlier but the Bills still have a desperate need for boundary receiver(s). It isn’t crazy to think that there is a guy, not yet drafted, that could have 50 catches and 750 yards this year.
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14 minutes ago, julian said:
And yet he will still be wrong more often than right, without the medicals and the ability to interview the prospects it’s nothing more than a flawed guessing game.
I appreciate the effort a poster will put into knowing the players on the field, it allows me to follow along draft weekend with a couple personal favourites to hope for without taking the necessary time of doing it myself.
Define “be wrong more than right.” I’m not understanding. Is it, “he will not predict the correct first 32” or “more of the players that he will like will fail than succeed?” He has the data on the latter.
Of the scouting equation, I would say 60% tape, 30% athletic profile, 10% interview. The medical is its own bucket. Scouts aren’t the ones evaluating that, doctor’s are. From a scouting standpoint he is doing 90% of what the teams are doing. Gunner is not putting guys on the white board but otherwise it’s a similar process. I think that you’re underselling how similar it is to the team’s process.
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14 minutes ago, zevo said:
ive seen a lot of Gabe 2.0. Remember Gabe making those big time catches in big spots. prior to the disappointing season last year. If we can get a better version of Gabe as a floor...its a successful pick.
I would take that for sure. Gabe was good at what he was good at but struggled with everything else. That’s why he was so inconsistent. He was good at getting down the field, especially on broken plays. I’m hoping Coleman will give you some of that while also running a little more of the route tree.
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3 minutes ago, zevo said:
I feel like Allen wanted a guy that could make that ridiculous catch in the big moment. Colemans has a lot of ridiculous grabs
That’s probably true and an interesting thought. The drops were tough last year.
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I went a few years ago in Cleveland. It was a really cool experience. We were only there in Day 3. The Bills were on the clock and I got all excited. They picked Tommy Doyle.
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Just now, whorlnut said:
For those of you that aren’t thrilled about the Keon Coleman pick…remember one thing. Word came out that he was the last receiver left on Allen’s wish list. Thats a big deal. Why would Beane not want to consult the face of his franchise when trying to get him more weapons?
This tells me that Allen’s wish list included Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Coleman, and probably Thomas. Think of it this way…if worthy, pearsall, or legette were on that list, they would have taken them at 28, or at most 32 for legette. I’m sure Beane would have liked to have traded down another time, but he could have risked losing Coleman.
I wasn’t overly thrilled with Coleman being the guy, but while he might lack separation on tape, and a good 40 time, he also had amazing splits in the 40 and other drills. The drills are where the football comes out in these guys…you know, catching the ball. Haha. Anyways…when you look at the bigger picture with Coleman, it’s not a bad pick at all. The guy is really athletic, has great hands and body control…and most of all…Allen wanted him.
Do we know how many WRs were on Allen’s list? All 3 of those guys AND Coleman might have been. I like consulting Allen on this. Just keep in mind, he hasn’t seen tons of any of these guys. I want his opinion because he’s the franchise. At the same time, I don’t want him overriding scouts with more info (I’m not suggesting that happened).
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6 minutes ago, NY Nole said:
I like alot of this analysis - but the “lacks separation” thing is a knock you can apply to every draft eligible receiver when talking about moving to the NFL. Worthy runs a helluva forty time and is bound to separate in a straight line or track oval - but may not always catch the ball which is pretty important for a receiver. For all the separation skills that Malik Nabers seems to possess - he didn’t get much separation against the two FSU defenders that were day 2 draft picks this year. When healthy Keon was a different dude on the field vs. the competition. He was simply at another level. He started the season as impressively as anyone I can remember and I was at the game against LSU. He was the best receiver on both sides of the ball - INCLUDING both LSU receivers drafted in round 1. He was plenty quick in that game regardless of forty time. His other first half of the season games were plenty impressive too, as FSU probably doesn’t beat Clemson without him. He gets hurt in the Wake Forest game and was clearly not the same player . That is my knock on him - hope he can stay healthy with all the soft tissue type injuries (also had those at Mich State). In my opinion, he already is an upgrade from Gabe Davis. Anyone thinking he (or any college prospect) upgrades from loss of Steph Diggs this year is fooling themselves. Noone (even Harrison Jr.) would’ve done that - at least not in 2024 season. I think Bills will have a better offense in 2024 than 2023. For those that love to B word - relax and let this play out. You just might like the player Coleman turns into.
The difference is that all receivers don’t look like this coming out:
Obviously, as a Noles fan you’ve seen more of him than most of us. You certainly have a bias towards him (mine is similar for Curtis Samuel as a player). I hope that you’re right and the injuries were a factor. The Bills need Coleman to produce now. They backed themselves into a corner with how they’ve built the WR room.
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13 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:
Armchair GMs are the worst. People act like they know more than Beane and his staff. It’s laughable
I don’t think that anyone thinks that they know more than Beane & co. For one, they have access to much more information (specifically medicals). At the same time, there are people here that know substantially more than (insert random non-draft analyst). @GunnerBill has evaluated and charted like 150 players in this draft. He’s forgotten more about this class than Booger McFarland / Dan Orlovsky / Ryan Clark etc… will ever know. Gunner’s analysis is more in line with guys like McShay/Kiper/Brooks/Jeremiah/Miller/Reid.
I agree, people watching a couple of highlight tapes or listening to non-experts is annoying.
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Beane on WR "We worked out a guy today we are going to end up signing"
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I actually like Scotty Miller some. He would be fine to compete for the 6th roster spot. He offers some traits that I like. The problem is, he will be a 4 here. All of the guys are pushed 2 spots up the depth chart because we are missing the top of it.
The point wasn’t necessarily about a particular guy. It was about “if you are planning on _____ to help you, your room stinks.” They’re going to have to make a trade June 1 because they can’t go into the season with this group. It’s just not good enough or dynamic enough. They’re way too easy to defend.