Brainiac21

dominated senior bowl. some people here don't value it much it seems, but i think NFL people do. it's much less of a projection because you get NFL coaching for first time, go against top players, coaches can see it first hand, etc. do well that week and in that game, and you improve your stock immensely. apparently though he didn't do all that much in the practices, so still some doubt, but that game is still weighed heavily.

but at least he'll run while he's doing it. probably the 3rd rounder... didn't they have a contest for a fan to announce the 2nd rounder for each team? although that seems unlikely too. it'd be fun though. wonder if they make you sign a contract that you have to say exactly what they tell you, or can you add a little to it yourself.. "Bills select future bust, and yet another early CB, Joe Shmoe". for example.

teams probably spend a disproportionate amount of time on the top picks. to move down to 8, and basically throw all that away in that now none of your top 20 potions are possible, would be very hard to do i'd imagine. by now they probably all have their heart set on someone, or at least a few guys. i think they'd trade down for sure, but down to 30 might scare them off... especially if they do have eyes set on a QB.

that was not a good link to click on at work.

well there would be no point even listening if you didn't think he told you any truths. i think history has proven you absolutely can tell his direction from what he says. positions are ruled out, and in, every year based on what he says. has he finally started to lie publicly at these events? maybe, but i doubt it until proven otherwise. put it this way; teams below us wanting that Safety or one of the OG's are certainly not worried about us taking one, among other things.

i dunno... i got the feeling that he gives away more than he intends quite often and had visions of them being grateful for the day they can remove his mouth from the podium. i think you can take a lot from what he says, more than you should.

absolutely corret, and i think it probably IS in that order. they didn't really hint at OT in this interview, but going from the past, i doubt they are looking at that.

i'd be shocked if they went DLine if first 3 picks. the only D i could see in that range is a CB in rd 2 or 3. maybe if Dion Jordan fell, then maybe. QB, WR, CB, and TE seem the highest on their list after the luncheon. they didn't give away anything about OT, but i'd guess no. and to narrow it down further, QB and WR both first rd possibilities, QB/WR/CB 2nd rd, and WR/CB/TE 3rd rd. i'm also skeptical they liked Barkley that much, i think people are overlooking some subtleties mentioned that they doubt him some. i'd say Nassib, Wilson, and maybe Geno.

the original 2 sounds like conjecture, as in "every draft has 2 guys"... becuase he said the tough part is figuring out who those 2 were. that makes it sound like it wasn't based on scouting, but on his view of history. the latter "2 or 3" came after all the tape review and visits. so i'm not sure one rose that much... i just think they like 2 or 3 with the 3rd maybe being borderline. the only thing i really take from these comments is he does like some QBs here to be franchise guys, meaning i think it's almost a sure thing we take one in first 2 rounds, and maybe even in round 1. that of course is what many think anyway, but there were some thinking we'd take a developmental guy late at best and draft one high next year. i don't think so. they are taking one high. also noted that he said 6 or 7 guys can win games, but they visited with about 10. so some didn't make the cut. i do think they like Wilson, and that he's at least in the 6 or 7 along with Nassib.

it's not about surfing, it's about the relaxed, laid-back, informal, attitude. and while i was not expecting it or looking for it, it was glaring.. probably because i watched it right after the very formal, respectful, serious attitude of EJ Manuel. Manuel was in there for a job interview, while Barkley seemed more like he was hanging out with a peer. it may not mean much, but from the all the ones i watched it would have been pretty obvious which was the SoCal guy just from audio alone... probably even just the transcript.

lots of kids from the South, this one from Virgina, and don't say "yes, sir" half as much. it was over-the-top, but i'm sure he'd get over that once he gets his millions. on the flip side, you had Barkley playing the part of the typical laid-back surfer dude... stereotypical, but came off so true. no "yessirs" from him/ more like "yeah, totally".

what will be interesting is to see if anyone is actually left... 7 posts in and we've lost most QB's, the small/fast WR, the big/slow WR, the OGs, the CB, and the S. form me, all of the above minus the QBs. if they believe in one, they gotta do it, and at least it would be interesting.

so then we'd likely have 3 CBs that were our own top 11 picks, on the field at the same time. wonder if that's ever been done before.

if i a QB is worth enough to trade hmm.. if a QB is worth so much more than the others that you want to trade up, and not miss him, then wouldn't he be worth the 13th pick? so i would say TB, since it's a much better deal and you take the QB and try and trade up if you need something else bad. however, it seems if TB was willing to give up their 1 and 2 for Milliner, then they would for Revis as well... so I'm not holding my breath on this one. If Minny calls I do it w/o giving up the 4th.. maybe a 5th. it's close enough, and if we're considered TB giving us 200points above value, then Minny can certainly give us 80 above. like i said, close enough.

from actual scout/GM types... all these ratings start out based like 90% by the Mayock/Kiper media types, but as time goes on more real team sources/scouts/GM's have their opinion heard. how many times you hear a guy like mayock say some scouts told him something and he "went back to look at more tape on the guy" etc. i the rankings change for lots of reasons: senior bowl, pro days, but a lot because it becomes a hybrid of their own original assessments and those they hear about from others. i think the updated rankings you see these days are when you have about as much as you can get from true "War room" sources, whereas 3 or 4 months ago it was pretty much just the Mel Kiper's of the world's opinion. just the thing you have to remember is that what yer seeing doesn't reflect a significant change of opinion of those that actually make the decisions.. just those who guess/report it.

totally not true on Nassib... some people have had him high since December. in fact, there was a reason a lot of people were watching that December game with interest since it had 2 of the top QB's. sure, there were some that said he was a 3rd rounder, and there STILL ARE. Mayock doesn't have him that high, tied with Landry i think. while russ lande had him as the #1 player in draft for last 3 months. i don't think they are rising and falling so much as there are a myriad of opinions of these guys. guys don't rise and fall that much.. there is just more information leaking out. some true and some false. there is something to combine/pro days though. speed/length/strength in a controlled evironment rather than detached game fils will mean a little something. maybe not 2 rounds, but something.

funny but those would be my guesses for their top 3 as well... no inside info though. i just think they like Wilson more than many suspect. maybe other teams do to and nobody wants to start any buzz on him, which is why it seems he's fallen.

not really true.. we supposedly have around 15 million in room this year, and need at least 5 of it for the draft.. leaving about 10 million. Revis wants 16 million a year supposedly, maybe he'd take a bit less due to his injury, but for us? 32 million a year on two defensive players is waaaayyyyy too many eggs in two baskets for my taste.

yep.. the theory goes that you need to lose more in number than you sign in order to get more than a 7th rounder. so as it stood, we might have garnered a 7th rounder for being 2-2, but now with losing one (assuming he did not sign for near too near the minimum which may disqualify him), we should get that Levitre pick back which should be around a 4th. Thigpen is visiting Raiders last I heard, so hopefully he will sign too, leaving us with some wiggle room to sign a guy ourselves and keep that "high" compensatory pick.

yeah, but those teams didn't do it with the 8th pick... and probably not with the top QB in their board either. they took a shot a little later, which is what we should have done, and probably will this year. they didn't grab someone no one was sure of with a top 10 pick... and isn't that the question here? we will take a QB, but how soon if yer only 50/50 on him?

so what yer saying is, his draft knowledge is s**t.

i think your numbers are way off, though it may be kind of irrelevant... Bills numbers are what matters. in "bad" qb years, which this may be, you aren't getting 2 good qb's so the %'s are probably a lot lower... at least that's what experts are saying and GM/scouts aren't publicly disagreeing. what if Bills numbers are: Geno 40%, Barkley 38%, manuel 36%, nassib 34%, and Tyler Wilson 32% ?? i think that is the real question. if the numbers are what you say, then there isn't really a debate at all. They DO take Geno. But if the odds aren't so different between guys you get in the first vs. the 2nd, THEN you probably don't pass on a 75% player (Fisher, L.Johnson, D.Jordan possibly) just to get 2 or 4 extra % points chance on a guy they aren't convinced will pan out anyway.

yep.

looks like we'll have another post-1st round option in addition to Hunter, Dobson, and Hopkins.

shoot, forgot Branch... Thigpen, Spencer Johnson, and McIntyre are the only guys i think out there whose contracts were up. not sure about Thiggy, as he originally signed a 3 year deal, but took pay cut last year; not sure if they also shortened the deal but i didn't read he was cut so i think his deal is just up which would make him count.