
djp14150
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Everything posted by djp14150
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The “math” of going for 2 makes no sense
djp14150 replied to Miyagi-Do Karate's topic in The Stadium Wall
I am a professional data scientist so I can explain why they decide this Recall probability rolling a die. The odds of getting any one number is 1 out of 6 or mathematically 1/6 as a fraction the odds of not getting a specific number is 5 out of 6 or 5/6 1/6 x 6 sides of a die =1 looking at making a PAT…say it’s x failure is then 1-x which we can call y similarly for going for 2 has a probability of T probability of failure is 1-T or we will call this U a team is down by 2 touch downs. If the score 2 touchdowns and two PATs would be= x*x. 1- that means they fail to tie. if the opt to go for two and succeed they can actually win the game. If the miss both they lose.even if they miss one and made other they are still tied. the probability of them failing both 2 pt tries is (1-t)*(1-t) if they do both PATs they lose if they don’t make both (1-x)*(1-x) using real numbers say odds of making a PAT is 0.9 so failing is 0.1 making both is 0.81=0.9*0.9 say your odds of making a 2 is 0.7 so failure is 0.3 you need to fail both so it’s 1- both failed. So 1-0.3*0.3=.91 0.91>0.81 and you have the added bonus of winning. there are some probability combinations that the better option is kicking both. If you have a very good kicker and conditions are not a factor say they are 0.96 in terms of making this gives 0.9216 which is higher than the 0.91 from the 2 pt tries from above. -
Pats are 4-4 with a rookie QB and almost top 10 defense
djp14150 replied to Ethan in Cleveland's topic in The Stadium Wall
2 wins against the Jets 2-4 in the others… 5 were decide by one score. TB and DAL were home games which matters. -
Dr Fragile…..
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My first thought was because of Eichel getting traded….
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Taylor Heinicke TD Ruled No TD! Why?
djp14150 replied to Never NEVER Give-up's topic in The Stadium Wall
rule change dives are giving themselves up because some QBs in a foot slide didn’t want knee injuries. Josh lost a TDearlier this season because of this rule. personally I don’t like it. Especially when QB running out of the pocket is a RB. Dives forward for goalie or first down markers shouldn’t be viewed as giving themselves up. -
I know we have Covid going around….I see another issue it’s called Shiny High Impact Toy Syndrome
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on #3 I think OP flushed everything… Tennessee is a good team who played up facing buffalo. thus came down to a few places… against D 1 the 48 yr 3td down pass that led to a SD 2. long TD run on Off 1 early red zone drives getting FGs. 2. kick for the tie vs going for it. Penalties 1 took away a TD for a FG 2. killed the KR still tired…I was at the game sitting on the 4th q side at the first down marker on TV side.
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Commercial plane filled with Bills fans headed to Tennessee! 🦬🛩💪🏾
djp14150 replied to StHustle's topic in The Stadium Wall
https://wtop.com/dc-transit/2021/10/major-delays-air-traffic-diversions-at-dca-after-hard-landing-disables-plane-on-runway/ stuck at tarmac therr -
Commercial plane filled with Bills fans headed to Tennessee! 🦬🛩💪🏾
djp14150 replied to StHustle's topic in The Stadium Wall
My plane DCA to nashville on AA has 65% bills fans. a guy a row ahead of me was talking to some people returning home and aren’t football fans. I saw in the plane for bills fans to say hi and a loud hi occurs. We’re in ground stop. a plane has landing issues and popped tires causing a ground stop. -
Commercial plane filled with Bills fans headed to Tennessee! 🦬🛩💪🏾
djp14150 replied to StHustle's topic in The Stadium Wall
My flight is at 415. It’s full. See how many are bills fans -
Till the off season….
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Should we be thanking JJ Watt for not choosing Buffalo?
djp14150 replied to benderbender's topic in The Stadium Wall
Signing him does not change who they drafted with him being older. -
Did you go to the game in 2019? Fans were all over the stadium. It was 75/25 bills fans
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the rules are… 405 pm games can’t go to 50% or more house holds. the late game in single game network besides local markets of the teams it goes to the 1 pm ori sry markets on the other network who won’t run a game against home team. Since it is a good game of two above 500 teams it can go to markets with interest such as. 1 division fees, 2. Future games against the teams, or 3. Teams that could be competing for playoffs. since buffalo is an idle team whose off or not playing Sunday afternoon they have some freedom to choose. Their interests woukd be 1 division fees they are competing with 2 teams they could face in playoffs 3. what have they aired or could air and showing some teams. Since buffalo could face CLEVELAND in playoffs there is interest to show them. Rochester has a history of showing them as a second choice after buffalo. Arizona is a good team. If dallas was on fox they would air that but it’s not.
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I have a feeling Frazier will be Raiders #1 target
djp14150 replied to Carbonpoke's topic in The Stadium Wall
Neither will go to the raiders with that GM. if Daboll wants truce with him he needs a team that is QBs void. what teams look to need a QB next year? Some with older QBs will look at drafting one under a 2-3 yr plan. teams that might want a QB to play next year are denver giants washington New Orleans pittsburgh minnesota teams 2-3 yrs from now Seattle Rams Raiders atlanta tampa posdibly grern bay nashville -
Steelers investigating ashes being spread on the field.
djp14150 replied to Royale with Cheese's topic in The Stadium Wall
This was their last home day game before the day of the dead…. This was their last home day game before the day of the dead Ashes ro Ashes Dust to Dust if we rely on Big Ben thus seasons a bust -
Tailgating is different there. in 2019 a friend ofa friend organized a paid tailgate where they served food just outside the stadium.