BisonMan

A weak offensive line and the major loss of his LT Albert leaves him exposed against the Bills pass rush. Plus, Tannehill is reportedly nursing injuries this week. I think there is a better than even chance he doesn't make it through the game.

The Pats receiving corp is lousy and Thompkins couldn't even get on their roster. Why would the Bills want him? Physically, he looks like he has the tools. It's likely that one reason he was cut is that he was challenged to remember the playbook. Hardly even a good intel pickup (for which you'd have to cut someone else). Let that team with stellar talent evaluators have him...the Raaaaaayders.

I know nobody likes the distraction but the Bills have a number of compelling story lines that would make it interesting to see: New ownership in the offing. How does this affect the behavior of coaches and/or the GM? EJ's second year - He's under much more pressure now that the Bills have gone all out giving him weapons. Sammy Watkins - The most interesting rookie outside of Manzel. Whaley - all but predicting a playoff season and went "all in" on the trade for Watkins. Dareus - Under a cloud due to off-field arrest. Wide Out battle - Even with Stevie gone, who gets the slots? Cyrus Kouandjio - Can he overcome injury that dropped him in the draft? Seantrel Henderson - Can he put his demons behind him and live up to his potential? Yes, Cleveland would certainly be a rating grabber but the NFL just did a movie on that franchise. Seattle would be interesting too given their SB win but the individual story lines are not as interesting as the Bills. Hey, the draft is now over. Something new to think about! EdW

As an owner, I'd prefer the current FA then Draft order for financial reasons already stated. From a competitive standpoint, I think the better choice would be Draft then FA. Because the outcome of the draft has move variability, getting that "risk" out of the way, makes going into the FA period easier. Each team would likely take into account what FA's are on the market before entering the draft. Teams with high draft picks, likely prefer free agency first though. They likely have a known selection, at least in the first round. That makes free agency easier because the risk of the draft is lower. Ultimately, it probably doesn't make a lot of difference. Given the financial considerations today, drafted players are soooo much cheaper that FA's that every team is looking to draft first for most positions. However, for cheaper positions, teams can solidify certain roster spots before the draft so they don't waste a pick on an inexpensive position. According to Sports Illustrated, the cheapest position players are TE and Safeties. Better to get one of those in Free Agency vs. a defensive tackle, offensive lineman, etc. because they are some of the highest paid positions. Under this logic, the Bills shouldn't pay Byrd top dollar because, for the money, they can get a reasonably good safety in free agency and save money to pay higher value positions or, preferably, get them in the draft. My 2 cents. EdW

LG RT RG ILB opposite Kiko The entire O-line is a mess and needs an overhaul. The RBs are dodging tacklers behind the line constantly and EJ has almost no time to throw on half of his drop backs. Listening to Marrone, the run defense is getting gashed because people are missing assignments, not getting blown up or otherwise engaged. Another season under the same defense (please don't let Pettine be hired as a HC somewhere!) will drastically improve the entire defense much better. So, although I think we could use an upgrade at ILB, I don't think it's as critical as the O-line. TE and WR are both weaknesses compared to teams with elite players in those positions. I'd likely take an elite WR over either O-line or LB in the draft because they are just worth more in today's NFL. Free agency will likely have some upgrades for the Bills this year too so the draft isn't everything. How does everyone feel about Pettygrew at TE. He's may walk from Detroit after this year.

If it hasn't been mentioned in this thread yet, try running through the ESPN Playoff Machine system for the scenarios (http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine). I selected the default for teams with better records beating their opponents throughout. That leaves a few games for teams with the same records. Notably, if you have Baltimore beat Pittsburgh and the Dolphins sweeping the Jets, the Bills get the final playoff spot at 8-8. Odd but true.

A can't agree with your assessment of Marrone. First, as other posters have said, he has this team ready to play and has instilled a toughness that I think was lacking under the previous regime(s). They don't give up late in games when they trail which is a good sign for a team this young in the NFL. The Bills took a division leading team to OT and beat a 4-2 team coming off a by week with their 4th string QB and both RBs playing injured. Damn good coaching. Second, I don't think the game management was as bad (or bad at all) at the end of the first half. The Bills are one of many teams that are employing analytics to on-field decisions. You hear Marrone say things like "the book says we should..." often. He's basically relying on their analytics in game situations. With less than 2 mins to go and the Dolphins with 3 TOs, the book probably says that your best odds of keeping them off the board is to get a first down. It also increases your odds of putting 3 up on the board before the half. Given the horrid rushing attach today, passing was the best choice. Did they execute, no. Lewis made 3 terrible throws, on none of which he was under pressure. That doesn't make the decision bad. The Dolphins also went 75 yards down the field with just 2 TOs with 1:25 left on the clock. You don't coach expecting that to happen. So, the almost the worst possible outcome happened under that strategy. The odds of that were extremely low. Sometimes the other guy draws to an inside straight and hits it. That doesn't mean you second guess the bet given the odds you have. EdW

By all accounts, Goodwin will be back returning kicks on Sunday. Looking at the kickoff stats, it appears that Cincy doesn't have particularly good kickoff coverage. Nugent is 4th worst in the NFL is allowing kick returns (55%) Nugent's average kick lands on the 1 yard line (64.1 average) Cincy allows a respectable 23.5 yards per return compared to the Bills' 19 YPR (2nd best in the league). Hopefully, the Bills don't allow Cincy to score much but when they do, Goodwin will have more than a 50% chance of returning the ball from outside the goal line. Maybe he runs one back and gives us some "free" points.

Given Freeman salary for this year is high and being paid by the Bucs, there is little chance someone will sign him to a long-term deal. He needs a one-year deal where he has a chance to play. At this point, nobody wanted his salary from a trade or off waivers. Freeman will have to play his way to a new contract that starts next year. But many accounts, Shiano ruined him and is looking more and more like a coach on a short leash. Buffalo would probably be a good spot for him to sign as a backup but there are issues. As with any other team, he knows nothing about the offense. No QB will step onto this team and pick up the playbook fast enough to start next week, even with an extra couple of days. If Manuel is out for the next game, Tuel is the starter, like it or not. Freeman or another signee would only be the backup for that game. I seriously doubt he or any of the other QBs available on the market would be able to start in two weeks given the learning curve.

Marrone is a genius for including even this contingency in his master clock-killing plan!!

According to Marrone in the presser, they were not going to punt on 4th down. Given the time remaining, they calculated that for each delayed kneel-down, they would burn 5-7 seconds off the clock. Combined with the Baltimore TOs, there would only be about 5 seconds left on 4th down. Again, according to Marrone, the plan was to "throw it out of bounds" on 4th down. I suspect he meant to have EJ drop back and heave a long pass well out of bounds (we know he's good at that after watching the Jets game). That would burn the last 5 seconds off the clock and they wouldn't have to worry about a bad snap or blocked kick or bad punt or big return on a punt play. I really like that they were calculating this stuff at the end of the game. It shows they are doing the math and playing the odds better than we've seen in recent years.

ESPN's "experts" picked the Bills 9-5: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

I was re-watching the end of the Bills' game this morning (nice way to wake up). On the play where Kuechly interferes with Stevie, it appear that Stevie would have had a good shot at catching that ball. If Kuechly didn't hold him, I don't think Stevie would have scored on that play. It looks like he would have had to make a high (perhaps leaping) catch around the 8 yard line. There were two safeties deeper than him on that play between him and the goal line. If he does catch it and gets tackled short of the goal line, I don't know if the Bills could have lined up fast enough to get off a downed pass. As it was, the play-clock was stopped on the INT at :14. If Stevie gets tackled in about the same amount of time, the Bills would have had about 10-12 seconds to run down field and down the ball. At most they would have had one play to score. With the INT, the clock was stopped and the Bills had time for 3 plays from the 11 yard-line. Fortunately, they scored in just two. Of course, Stevie might have caught it and juked the safeties and scored on that throw.

I generally agree but that last point lumps together a lot of stuff. Seattle's secondary is MUCH better than the Bills' secondary. LBs are substantially better too. Those are big differences when it comes to overall defensive performance. Hopefully, the schemes the Bills run this year will make up for the limited talent. Everyone forgets special teams here too. I think the Bills should have one of the best in the league, especially once Hopkins gets back from his injury. McKelvin and Goodwin returning kicks could be the best tandem in the NFL.

Two words to someone who wants a trade...CODE RED!

Not sure what your definition of "blitz" is. In a 3-4, if the two inside backers rush along with the 3 down lineman regardless of the RB's route, is that a blitz by your definition? It is in mine. How about if the 3 down lineman all rush along with a ILB and the slot corner who leaves his WR to the FS? That's a corner blitz in my book. Do good teams do this? Well, the 2012 Jets did things like that frequently and they were a top-5 defense (i.e. "good"). Good article here on this with nifty graphics and video: http://www.nfl.com/n...py-ways-in-2013

I think the Bills will want to play a "four corners" type strategy for this game. Keeping it lower scoring is the key. By blitzing, you open up your inexperienced and talent-limited CBs to long passes and big plays. The Bills cannot afford to let the Pats have big plays in this game. It's better to let Brady try to dink-and-dunk you. The Pats inexperienced WR core is key to this strategy. The Pats run a lot of option routes. With numerous players in confusing coverages, the decisions for these receivers will be suspect. Brady will likely read the defensive scheme correctly on a given play but the same cannot be said of these WRs. They go left and Brady knows they should go right. INTs result from these kinds of mistakes. The fewer DBs on the field on a pass play (like when you blitz), the easier the decision is for the WRs. As a bonus, rushing 4 (sometimes 3 or 5) typically allows you to defend the run better and prevents the large gash run that results in large gains. Make the Pats take their time down the field and jump on the mistakes that eventually come with complex coverage schemes. Meanwhile, I think the Bills run-run-run the ball with CJ and some Fred when CJ pukes. EJ makes some downfield throws early to keep the NE safeties honest and out of run-stuffing mode. If the Pats score more than 28 points, we likely lose. Shorten the game by controlling the ball and making them take time to move the ball and we have a chance.

Based on the history that Pettine has with the Jets, it's possible that the Bills might not employ exotic blitz schemes against the Pats on Sunday. In the 2011 playoffs, the Jets did just the opposite and put a significant number of players into coverage rather than blitzing Brady and it worked. Given the Bills' weaknesses in the secondary, this may be a shrewd move. Dropping more into coverage also may help the Bills from getting gashed by the Pats running game, which is now very good. Thoughts?

The Pats defense last year was 25th in yards against but 9th in points against. They were a mixed bag. They did get a lot of turnovers (led the league in forced fumbles). They also had one of the higher fumble recovery rates, which is basically luck. They were 5th in INTs. They would have been one of the worst defenses if it wasn't for the turnovers. Of course, having Tommy run up the score forces trailing teams to throw more and that leads to INTs. People tend to focus on Brady and not on his supporting cast, which I think is a mistake. When they won their SBs, their defense was very good or excellent. Once their defense began to wane, so did their SB wins. They've been explosive offensively, primarily with the pass but Brady has had a good line and good weapons (Moss, Welker, Gronk, Mr. Angel Dust). This year, their defense is still not very good and most of Brady's weapons are gone. I think the Pats will focus on the run game more this year to take the pressure off of Brady's receivers. They were 7th in rushing yards last year.

Luck has those horse-teeth so he fits right in. Looks like they also thought Matt Flynn would be a starter.

A settlement usually means the Bills pay him less than his contract terms. Kolb wouldn't do that unless he already had an offer from another team and he was ready to play. I just don't see him taking a pay cut this year with his career in jeopardy.

I doubt they get an injury settlement unless Kolb is available to play in a few weeks. No team will want to sign him very far into the season, especially given his concussion history. The Bills will foot his salary for the entire year. Count me in as one who doubts any time will want to sign him again.

Seriously? You think it's the outfits? I worked with a couple of the Redskins cheerleaders. It has nothing to do with the outfits.

I agree with those that say he won't be on NE. The Pats look for players with good heads, not meat heads. Rogers appears to be the latter. One thing folks forget about Rogers' history is that all college environments are not the same. At TN (his first stop), the program is likely very "professional" with strict rules on player performance and behavior. TN Tech is likely less football focused. So, it's easy to see him being treated and acting less professionally at TN Tech. So, he's not trying to make the jump between the SEC and the NFL. He's leaping several levels of football and trying to make it in the most professional of football leagues. That's a tough adjustment and it doesn't look like he can make it.

I'll take a shot: 09/08 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS : Loss. I thought we were looking good but a few injuries makes this game that much harder. It could be close though. 09/15 CAROLINA PANTHERS : Win. 09/22 @ New York Jets : Win. Our third string QB might be better than their starter. 09/29 BALTIMORE RAVENS : Win. I know this is an upset but this looks like a trap game for the Ravens to me. 10/03 @ Cleveland Browns : Win 10/13 CINCINNATI BENGALS : Loss 10/20 @ Miami Dolphins : Win. I like us to sweep the Fins this year. I don't think they have come anywhere close to fixing their O-Line woes. 10/27 @ New Orleans Saints : Loss 11/03 KANSAS CITY CHIEFS : Win, but only because we're at home. 11/10 @ Pittsburgh Steelers : Loss 11/17 NEW YORK JETS : Win 12/01 ATLANTA FALCONS (TOR) : Loss...on the road. 12/08 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers : Win. EJ will have his feet under him by this week and easily outplay Freeman. 12/15 @ Jacksonville Jaguars Win 12/22 MIAMI DOLPHINS : Win 12/29 @ New England Patriots : Loss So, I have 9-7 but probably no playoffs.