BisonMan

Besides the limitations mentioned in the article, the methodology doesn't seem to include the most important factors in deciding whether to "go for it" in certain situations; the strength of the coach's offense and defense. It is no surprise that teams like Buffalo, Arizona, St. Louis and Oakland would kick in "go for it" situations. Each had anemic offenses in 2014. Three of these teams also had very good defenses, which the coaches smartly counted on to get the ball back. Rex is actually more aggressive given these factors than the chart gives him credit for. He had a crappy offense and a great defense but was still about "average" in aggressiveness according to this scale. To me, that makes him very aggressive. Who can fault teams like Denver, NO, New England and Green Bay for going for it with their productive offenses? Their likelihood of success is much higher than the Bills. Factoring in the strength of the coach's offense makes teams like Washington, Tennessee and Houston look VERY aggressive and teams like San Diego and Dallas look extra cautious. Finally, the sampling size in this analysis is very small. That tends to skew the results for teams with few opportunities to be "aggressive". Oakland had only 6 instances of 4th and 2 or less to go or 4th downs at the opponent's 31-37 yard line. Going for it just once in those opportunities would significantly affect their rating on this scale. This is an interesting thing to study but was executed poorly by Football Outsiders, which I usually like reading. My 2 cents. EdW

Should he come open on the market due to NO's cap problems, should the Bills sign a Pro Bowler like this with declining production. http://espn.go.com/blog/new-orleans-saints/tag/_/name/jahri-evans I say yes even if it means letting Hughes go due to cap limitations. Let the young guys learn under a Pro Bowler instead of the current crop or Incognito.

Sorry, I was the one being snarky and wanted to let you know. Seriously, I didn't read any anonymous postings or fan forums about Derek Carr. I did see numerous commentators on TV (ESPN, NFLN) discuss how teams might be shying away from him because of David. ESPN did an entire piece on how David's failures might affect Derek's draft status. http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/10862080/sins-brother-derek-carr-learn-brother-david-busted-career It includes a story about a coach asking Derek about why David failed. Why bring up his brother's failure when there are so many other failed QBs to choose from to ask him about? Sure, he might have insight that others don't because he's close with his brother but the coaches are likely asking because, being human, they are risk averse and failing with another Carr is more likely to get you fired than failing with someone without that dubious pedigree.

SET SNARKY ON Wow. I didn't realize you had intimate knowledge of what was in the minds of the GMs and coaches of all 32 teams. Regardless of what numerous commentators were saying at the time, your assurance is all I need. Thanks. SET SNARKY OFF

I was thinking this too. Sanchez wants to compete for a starting job and I'm not sure if Kelly sees him as someone who can/will beat out Foles. He'd be an upgrade over Orton. Sanchez has the best experience combined with talent on the free agent QB list at this point: http://www.spotrac.com/free-agents/nfl/quarterback/ I suspect Cutler will be a UFA if the Bears are going to swallow the $15 they'll owe him when they cut him. I personally think he's a coach/team killer. RGIII is also likely to be a free agent unless the Redskins want to pay $18M to a QB the coach thinks stinks. However, living in DC, I've always been underwhelmed by RGIII even in his rookie season. He certainly ran the ball well but his accuracy was always poor. Now that he can't run, his lack of talent is completely exposed.

Cutting Cutler would be really painful for the Bears. He is guaranteed $15M for next season unless some fools agree to trade for him at that price. If he's on the Bears next season, he's guaranteed another $10M the next season. His agent was the only one with any brains in that transaction.

I think Carr's draft stock actually slipped because his brother was such a disappointing high pick. He's looked good in the limited action I've seen of him. If the Raiders get the top pick next year, that could be interesting. Carr's played well enough with poor talent around him. Do the Raiders pick a QB at/near the top of the draft? Do they trade the pick away to stockpile for other needs and stick with Carr? At this point, I'm just hoping Sunday is a lonnnnng day for the rook.

There seems to be a lot of inside baseball talk on this thread when we have no real idea what the relationships are like in the clubhouse. For all we know, Whaley may absolutely love Marrone and Hackett. There is just no telling. Every franchise that goes through tough seasons generate rumors about rifts in the management team. It doesn't mean it's true. It's probably often just an indication of highly competitive people working together and that's a good thing. I'm all in favor of keeping Marrone and Hackett given that I really know nothing about the internal team relationships. The team is saddled with a very weak QB situation and has weak OGs. Oddly, aside from those positions, the team has a ton of talent almost everywhere else. Of course, the QB situation is one of those "other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?" sort of things. QB talent is almost everything in this league. Very few teams post strong winning records without a decent or great QB. Folks can site KC or Philly as teams with average QBs but they are both worlds better than what the Bills have. Folks complain about the offense being less than inspiring. Tell you what, get a top 15 QB at the helm and DM and NH could throw a lot more at him and would be immediately considered great coaches. 10-6 is a pipe dream. After a loss this weekend, the Bills should sit Orton and see what kind of progress Manuel can make over the last two games. Find OGs in the offseason and get try to get another QB (or two) to compete the way Seattle did to find Wilson. QB picking has extremely low returns so nobody should really expect anyone they bring in to be the savior. As the NFL shows each year, there are very few franchise QBs out there and it often takes a bit of luck to get one (ala Brady, Wilson, Romo, Brees). Early success is no strong indicator either. See: Griffin, Kapernick, Dalton, Newton, Freeman. It's a crapshoot that we have to deal with.

Every witness is called by one side or the other to bolster their case. It's fair to categorize Spikes' testimony as "for" a particular side even if he's called as a hostile witness. He's obviously not on the witness list because he volunteered or there for entertainment purposes. One side or the other wants him to testify and being curious which side called him is reasonable. From all reports, he was not present during the shooting and is not likely an alibi witness. You normally wouldn't call a character witness until after a conviction so I'm guessing it's the prosecution that is calling Spikes. Perhaps he has some first-hand knowledge of Hernandez owning the type of weapon used in the crime or was privy to a conversation that speaks to the relationship between Hernandez and the victim. Either way, he's there to help one side or the other. Of course, being on the witness list doesn't mean he'll even be called to testify. He may be there as a rebuttal witness that won't be needed during the trial. I think you'll tend to see a lot of "potential" witnesses in a big trial because neither side wants to be accused of calling someone without prior notification, particularly the prosecution.

A weak offensive line and the major loss of his LT Albert leaves him exposed against the Bills pass rush. Plus, Tannehill is reportedly nursing injuries this week. I think there is a better than even chance he doesn't make it through the game.

The Pats receiving corp is lousy and Thompkins couldn't even get on their roster. Why would the Bills want him? Physically, he looks like he has the tools. It's likely that one reason he was cut is that he was challenged to remember the playbook. Hardly even a good intel pickup (for which you'd have to cut someone else). Let that team with stellar talent evaluators have him...the Raaaaaayders.

I know nobody likes the distraction but the Bills have a number of compelling story lines that would make it interesting to see: New ownership in the offing. How does this affect the behavior of coaches and/or the GM? EJ's second year - He's under much more pressure now that the Bills have gone all out giving him weapons. Sammy Watkins - The most interesting rookie outside of Manzel. Whaley - all but predicting a playoff season and went "all in" on the trade for Watkins. Dareus - Under a cloud due to off-field arrest. Wide Out battle - Even with Stevie gone, who gets the slots? Cyrus Kouandjio - Can he overcome injury that dropped him in the draft? Seantrel Henderson - Can he put his demons behind him and live up to his potential? Yes, Cleveland would certainly be a rating grabber but the NFL just did a movie on that franchise. Seattle would be interesting too given their SB win but the individual story lines are not as interesting as the Bills. Hey, the draft is now over. Something new to think about! EdW

As an owner, I'd prefer the current FA then Draft order for financial reasons already stated. From a competitive standpoint, I think the better choice would be Draft then FA. Because the outcome of the draft has move variability, getting that "risk" out of the way, makes going into the FA period easier. Each team would likely take into account what FA's are on the market before entering the draft. Teams with high draft picks, likely prefer free agency first though. They likely have a known selection, at least in the first round. That makes free agency easier because the risk of the draft is lower. Ultimately, it probably doesn't make a lot of difference. Given the financial considerations today, drafted players are soooo much cheaper that FA's that every team is looking to draft first for most positions. However, for cheaper positions, teams can solidify certain roster spots before the draft so they don't waste a pick on an inexpensive position. According to Sports Illustrated, the cheapest position players are TE and Safeties. Better to get one of those in Free Agency vs. a defensive tackle, offensive lineman, etc. because they are some of the highest paid positions. Under this logic, the Bills shouldn't pay Byrd top dollar because, for the money, they can get a reasonably good safety in free agency and save money to pay higher value positions or, preferably, get them in the draft. My 2 cents. EdW

LG RT RG ILB opposite Kiko The entire O-line is a mess and needs an overhaul. The RBs are dodging tacklers behind the line constantly and EJ has almost no time to throw on half of his drop backs. Listening to Marrone, the run defense is getting gashed because people are missing assignments, not getting blown up or otherwise engaged. Another season under the same defense (please don't let Pettine be hired as a HC somewhere!) will drastically improve the entire defense much better. So, although I think we could use an upgrade at ILB, I don't think it's as critical as the O-line. TE and WR are both weaknesses compared to teams with elite players in those positions. I'd likely take an elite WR over either O-line or LB in the draft because they are just worth more in today's NFL. Free agency will likely have some upgrades for the Bills this year too so the draft isn't everything. How does everyone feel about Pettygrew at TE. He's may walk from Detroit after this year.

If it hasn't been mentioned in this thread yet, try running through the ESPN Playoff Machine system for the scenarios (http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine). I selected the default for teams with better records beating their opponents throughout. That leaves a few games for teams with the same records. Notably, if you have Baltimore beat Pittsburgh and the Dolphins sweeping the Jets, the Bills get the final playoff spot at 8-8. Odd but true.

A can't agree with your assessment of Marrone. First, as other posters have said, he has this team ready to play and has instilled a toughness that I think was lacking under the previous regime(s). They don't give up late in games when they trail which is a good sign for a team this young in the NFL. The Bills took a division leading team to OT and beat a 4-2 team coming off a by week with their 4th string QB and both RBs playing injured. Damn good coaching. Second, I don't think the game management was as bad (or bad at all) at the end of the first half. The Bills are one of many teams that are employing analytics to on-field decisions. You hear Marrone say things like "the book says we should..." often. He's basically relying on their analytics in game situations. With less than 2 mins to go and the Dolphins with 3 TOs, the book probably says that your best odds of keeping them off the board is to get a first down. It also increases your odds of putting 3 up on the board before the half. Given the horrid rushing attach today, passing was the best choice. Did they execute, no. Lewis made 3 terrible throws, on none of which he was under pressure. That doesn't make the decision bad. The Dolphins also went 75 yards down the field with just 2 TOs with 1:25 left on the clock. You don't coach expecting that to happen. So, the almost the worst possible outcome happened under that strategy. The odds of that were extremely low. Sometimes the other guy draws to an inside straight and hits it. That doesn't mean you second guess the bet given the odds you have. EdW

By all accounts, Goodwin will be back returning kicks on Sunday. Looking at the kickoff stats, it appears that Cincy doesn't have particularly good kickoff coverage. Nugent is 4th worst in the NFL is allowing kick returns (55%) Nugent's average kick lands on the 1 yard line (64.1 average) Cincy allows a respectable 23.5 yards per return compared to the Bills' 19 YPR (2nd best in the league). Hopefully, the Bills don't allow Cincy to score much but when they do, Goodwin will have more than a 50% chance of returning the ball from outside the goal line. Maybe he runs one back and gives us some "free" points.

Given Freeman salary for this year is high and being paid by the Bucs, there is little chance someone will sign him to a long-term deal. He needs a one-year deal where he has a chance to play. At this point, nobody wanted his salary from a trade or off waivers. Freeman will have to play his way to a new contract that starts next year. But many accounts, Shiano ruined him and is looking more and more like a coach on a short leash. Buffalo would probably be a good spot for him to sign as a backup but there are issues. As with any other team, he knows nothing about the offense. No QB will step onto this team and pick up the playbook fast enough to start next week, even with an extra couple of days. If Manuel is out for the next game, Tuel is the starter, like it or not. Freeman or another signee would only be the backup for that game. I seriously doubt he or any of the other QBs available on the market would be able to start in two weeks given the learning curve.

Marrone is a genius for including even this contingency in his master clock-killing plan!!

According to Marrone in the presser, they were not going to punt on 4th down. Given the time remaining, they calculated that for each delayed kneel-down, they would burn 5-7 seconds off the clock. Combined with the Baltimore TOs, there would only be about 5 seconds left on 4th down. Again, according to Marrone, the plan was to "throw it out of bounds" on 4th down. I suspect he meant to have EJ drop back and heave a long pass well out of bounds (we know he's good at that after watching the Jets game). That would burn the last 5 seconds off the clock and they wouldn't have to worry about a bad snap or blocked kick or bad punt or big return on a punt play. I really like that they were calculating this stuff at the end of the game. It shows they are doing the math and playing the odds better than we've seen in recent years.

ESPN's "experts" picked the Bills 9-5: http://espn.go.com/nfl/picks

I was re-watching the end of the Bills' game this morning (nice way to wake up). On the play where Kuechly interferes with Stevie, it appear that Stevie would have had a good shot at catching that ball. If Kuechly didn't hold him, I don't think Stevie would have scored on that play. It looks like he would have had to make a high (perhaps leaping) catch around the 8 yard line. There were two safeties deeper than him on that play between him and the goal line. If he does catch it and gets tackled short of the goal line, I don't know if the Bills could have lined up fast enough to get off a downed pass. As it was, the play-clock was stopped on the INT at :14. If Stevie gets tackled in about the same amount of time, the Bills would have had about 10-12 seconds to run down field and down the ball. At most they would have had one play to score. With the INT, the clock was stopped and the Bills had time for 3 plays from the 11 yard-line. Fortunately, they scored in just two. Of course, Stevie might have caught it and juked the safeties and scored on that throw.

I generally agree but that last point lumps together a lot of stuff. Seattle's secondary is MUCH better than the Bills' secondary. LBs are substantially better too. Those are big differences when it comes to overall defensive performance. Hopefully, the schemes the Bills run this year will make up for the limited talent. Everyone forgets special teams here too. I think the Bills should have one of the best in the league, especially once Hopkins gets back from his injury. McKelvin and Goodwin returning kicks could be the best tandem in the NFL.

Two words to someone who wants a trade...CODE RED!

Not sure what your definition of "blitz" is. In a 3-4, if the two inside backers rush along with the 3 down lineman regardless of the RB's route, is that a blitz by your definition? It is in mine. How about if the 3 down lineman all rush along with a ILB and the slot corner who leaves his WR to the FS? That's a corner blitz in my book. Do good teams do this? Well, the 2012 Jets did things like that frequently and they were a top-5 defense (i.e. "good"). Good article here on this with nifty graphics and video: http://www.nfl.com/n...py-ways-in-2013