BisonMan

Rice is the easy pick here. Never "took plays off" and never divided a locker room. Consumate team player and example for every other player in the league. He lifted the players around him unlike TO and Moss. Rice did have some great QBs throwing him the ball but they are great QBs in part, because they got to throw to Jerry Rice. It's a two-way street. Yards, TDs, SuperBowls, longevity...Rice dominates them all. I give Megatron props for similar reasons. Consumate professsional and a dominant player. Oddly, Stanford had a better season after Johnson retired because he relied on Johnson too much. I also like him because he's a fellow Georgia Tech alum. Somebody else mentioned Fred Biletnikoff. Nobody had hands like him that I've ever seen. He was slow but still got open all the time with great moves. He practice catching balls by standing in facing a wall in a gym and having Stabler throw balls off the wall. The balls took all sorts of bounces and FB had to react without seeing them coming and catch them. I never heard of anyone else doing that. People remember the stickem' he used later in his career but he always had the best hands in the game. EdW

Sign Fred to a one-day deal before the home opener. Have him ceremoniously run over Chris Conte at the goal line and leap into the stands. The place would go crazy. https://youtu.be/0lCF-vUVwGQ

I grant your point on the confusion. For my analysis, anyone 1-9 was inside the top ten. In any case, there were only 2 QBs taken as the 10th pick and both were failures (Gabbert, Leinart). So, add them to the "top 10" and the odds of finding success in that cohort is reduced from 33% success to 31%. For those taken outside the top 10, the odds leap from 14.3% success to 15.8% success. Still very bad odds. Of the franchise QBs inside the top 10 that I noted, the latest any of them were drafted in the 1st round was the 4th overall pick (Rivers). Yikes. Hopefully, the Bills can trade up into the top 4 next year with those two first rounders! EdW

Read carefully. I said QBs drafted at the 10th slot or later (the Bills were 10th this year) had only a 15% chance of being a franchise QB. For QBs drafted inside the top 10, there is a 33% chance. The Bills didn't have pick inside the top 10 but might next year if they trade up (or if they stink as some predict). That's why I brought up the top 10 data. All told, it's really unrealistic to expect a team to get a franchise QB in the draft because there just aren't that many overall. You have to try but trying with some better odds is the way to go, IMHO.

For those who have bemoaned the Bills not selecting a QB with the 10th pick, you have to look at the numbers to know why this was a good (great?) move. The reality is that there was an 85% chance that the Bills pick would be a failure had they pulled the trigger on a trigger man at 10. First, the numbers. Since 2000, there have been 45 QBs taken in the first round. Of those, 21 were taken at the 10th pick or later. Of these 21, only 3 are players I consider “franchise” quarterbacks (4 if you include Jay Cutler). They are: Ben Roethlisberger (11th) Aaron Rodgers (24th) Joe Flacco (18th) Some would argue that Flacco isn’t really one. Nonetheless, out of 21 selections made by teams across the NFL, less than 15% turned out to be franchise QBs. So, an 85%+ failure rate on those other picks (including a couple by the Bills). The odds aren’t great for players selected inside the top 10 either. Just 8 of the 24 QBs taken in the top 10 turned out to be franchise players. They include: Eli Manning Philip Rivers Carson Palmer Matt Ryan Matthew Stafford Alex Smith Cam Newton Andrew Luck You can argue that some of these shouldn’t even be considered “franchise” at this point (Smith, Stafford). Aren’t the best QBs in the NFL mostly from the first round though? Probably not. Taking the QBR ratings from 2017, only about ½ of the QBs in the top half of the league were selected in the 1st round. One clown was even drafted in the 6th round! So, if you want to argue (or bet money) that the Bills should have stayed at 10 and taken a shot at one of these QBs, I’d be happy to take the other side. History says you’d be wrong 6 out of 7 times. What the Bills did yesterday was give themselves two 1st round picks in 2018. That is an arguably stronger QB class than this year. The Bills have the ammo now to move into the top 10 next year and take a shot at a QB. Even then, there is a 66% chance that won't work out, but it's much better odds than this year's draft. EdW

I don't think you can block a promotion for a coach, only lateral moves. If he's below OC now, the Pats have nothing to say about it unless they instantly promote him to OC and fire McD. Rex couldn't block Pettine from becoming the Bills' DC because he wasn't the DC in NY. Similarly, the Bills couldn't block Pettine from going to Cleveland because it was a promotion. Plus, how much of a d#$k would you be if you blocked somebody on your staff from a promotion somewhere else. How many people would want to coach under that leadership? Nobody who thinks they'll be a HC someday.

I think you'd really have to analyze each game to see whether they are really "1 score" games. There are a lot of TDs that are scored during garbage time where the team with a 2+ score lead is allowing the other team to move the ball and even score to eat up clock. My feeling is that several of the Bills' 1-score games ended up like that. Bills-Jets (1) the Bills scored with 1:22 remaining. Bill-Dolphins (1) same story. Bills-Steelers same story. Get rid of garbage time scores and I think that stat doesn't really add up because teams that are leading will let you move/score to eat up clock. Statistically, their odds of winning the game are better when they let you do that.

The Hughes trade was done before Whaley was GM so I don't give him credit for that one. I like the Spiller move. He turned out to be another Saints dud, along with Byrd. I actually liked the Gronk/Felton move. It allowed the team to resign Felton for lower money when he went unclaimed. They played one game without him. Good points on Darius and Hogan.

So, he was ahead of 30 other GMs that would have done the same thing? Do that every time and you are the GM of the century. Are you saying that no other team had a player as good as Alonzo they could trade for Shady? I'm guessing every team could have coughed up someone of equal value but Whaley got in there first and made the deal. Remember, a lot of people actually criticized the deal because "Shady is old", "Kiko is a future All-Pro", "Shady isn't worth the money", etc. I think they were all wrong.

I agree with both of these. My point is that signing them knowing who the coach was and his proposed scheme made their signings a waste of cap space. It could work out that both improve under new coaching/scheme but the last two years on the roster were wasted. Whaley should be more measured in how he spends cap money knowing the scheme they will be playing under. I wouldn't sign a statue of a QB (i.e. Glennon) under the current offensive scheme because he's no threat to run and the pass blocking is abysmal at times.

There has been a lot of grumbling about Doug Whaley in the past year on this board. I think his record is spotty but not the nightmare that many characterize. I think all GMs have their hits and misses so I thought it would be some offseason fun for us to each post our own top/bottom three moves by the Bills’ GM. For mine, I’m only including those things that I think have been lopsided enough to be at the top or bottom. I think the jury is still out on the Sammy Watkins move so I didn’t include it. Your opinions may differ. 3 Best Moves Kiko for Shady – straight up trade for one of the best backs in the NFL for an injured 2nd year LB. Kiko has yet to live up to the “legend” and Shady was a perfect pick for the Bills offensive scheme. Zach Brown – Signs insurance policy for ILB that needs to be cashed in when Ragland goes down with a knee injury. Brown was a leading tackler in 2016 on a team that often refused to tackle anybody. Re-sign Cordy Glenn – Previous regimes in Buffalo didn’t resign their own at market rates. This is a nice departure. Imagine the Bills the last bunch of years with Jason Peters at LT. 3 Worst Moves QB Non-Move – There isn’t a specific move for me here other than he hasn’t made a move that has really worked out to solve the most pressing need on this (or any) moribund franchise. Continuing to push EJ Manuel as a competent starter/backup and failing to see the value in several potential draft picks (Carr, Prescott). TE Charles Clay – Clay has the potential to be a star player at the TE position. However, the limitations of the Bills’ offense and QB have relegated a high-priced free-agent “play maker” to a run blocker. Clay is a good player but is eating up cap money that could be used elsewhere. A new coach or QB might redeem this move. WR Jerry Hughes – A star in Schwartz’s 4-3, he was resigned to big bucks to play in Rex’s 3-4. It’s pretty apparent he is ill-suited for this role and, again, we have a player who is eating up cap space and not making a significant impact. Perhaps a switch back to a 4-3 under new leadership will resurrect Hughes career but so far under his new contract he hasn’t been very effective and continues to take stupid penalties at critical times. Your move(s).... EdW

Graham makes a classic mistake here. He makes the correlation that having a higher percentage of drafted players on your team CAUSES success. In policy study circles, they'd say he is ignoring a latent variable that is driving both high draft pick roster percentage and success. Teams with franchise QBs have to rely primarily on draft picks because the QB eats up so much cap room. Teams without a franchise QB salary, can afford to have a higher percentage of pro personal on their rosters.Having a top QB is the reason teams have long term success. It drives roster decisions as well. I read an article that said successful school children tended to have more books in their home than other children. Do you suppose the books really had anything to do with it? No, these children had smart/educated parents (who tend to read more) and that's what causes their success. Just filling a room in your house with books won't make your kid a better student. Just having your roster filled with draft picks won't consistently get you to the playoffs. Having a Franchise QB will.

EJ is likely not going to be signed by anyone to start or really compete for a starting job. Given that he isn't likely going to be a starter, teams will wait until after the draft to see what their QB situation is before exploring EJ as their backup. If Tyrod is a FA, I can certainly see a team looking at him as a starting option but it would have to be a specific type of team. A scrambling QB is not the first vision most coaches have for their offense. Given you'd have a tailor (pun intended) your offense to his skills, signing him requires a bit of an upheaval in your team. Is there another run-first/QB option team looking for a starter? Seattle might like TT as a backup. SF/Chip probably sees him as something of a downgrade from Kap when healthy. I just don't see a team right now that fits with his skills and with a coach looking to change their offense that much. He's an upgraded Tim Tebow in my mind.

Called today after procrastinating on this. Ended up going to Retention because the first rep only could offer me $20 off for six months. Retention was definitely more aggressive. Free ST plus $20 off for six months plus $30 more off for the next year. I'm using the first $20 off to upgrade to STMAX tomorrow, which is almost a wash. Net: STMAX Free plus $30 off for the next year. Definitely worth an hour of my time during work today!

Link:http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25292962/why-greg-romans-diverse-offensive-scheme-has-bills-thinking-big-again

I love how the color guy says, "they took a dump over the middle on second down". That had to be the best double entendre of that NFL weekend.

Besides the limitations mentioned in the article, the methodology doesn't seem to include the most important factors in deciding whether to "go for it" in certain situations; the strength of the coach's offense and defense. It is no surprise that teams like Buffalo, Arizona, St. Louis and Oakland would kick in "go for it" situations. Each had anemic offenses in 2014. Three of these teams also had very good defenses, which the coaches smartly counted on to get the ball back. Rex is actually more aggressive given these factors than the chart gives him credit for. He had a crappy offense and a great defense but was still about "average" in aggressiveness according to this scale. To me, that makes him very aggressive. Who can fault teams like Denver, NO, New England and Green Bay for going for it with their productive offenses? Their likelihood of success is much higher than the Bills. Factoring in the strength of the coach's offense makes teams like Washington, Tennessee and Houston look VERY aggressive and teams like San Diego and Dallas look extra cautious. Finally, the sampling size in this analysis is very small. That tends to skew the results for teams with few opportunities to be "aggressive". Oakland had only 6 instances of 4th and 2 or less to go or 4th downs at the opponent's 31-37 yard line. Going for it just once in those opportunities would significantly affect their rating on this scale. This is an interesting thing to study but was executed poorly by Football Outsiders, which I usually like reading. My 2 cents. EdW

Should he come open on the market due to NO's cap problems, should the Bills sign a Pro Bowler like this with declining production. http://espn.go.com/blog/new-orleans-saints/tag/_/name/jahri-evans I say yes even if it means letting Hughes go due to cap limitations. Let the young guys learn under a Pro Bowler instead of the current crop or Incognito.

Sorry, I was the one being snarky and wanted to let you know. Seriously, I didn't read any anonymous postings or fan forums about Derek Carr. I did see numerous commentators on TV (ESPN, NFLN) discuss how teams might be shying away from him because of David. ESPN did an entire piece on how David's failures might affect Derek's draft status. http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/10862080/sins-brother-derek-carr-learn-brother-david-busted-career It includes a story about a coach asking Derek about why David failed. Why bring up his brother's failure when there are so many other failed QBs to choose from to ask him about? Sure, he might have insight that others don't because he's close with his brother but the coaches are likely asking because, being human, they are risk averse and failing with another Carr is more likely to get you fired than failing with someone without that dubious pedigree.

SET SNARKY ON Wow. I didn't realize you had intimate knowledge of what was in the minds of the GMs and coaches of all 32 teams. Regardless of what numerous commentators were saying at the time, your assurance is all I need. Thanks. SET SNARKY OFF

I was thinking this too. Sanchez wants to compete for a starting job and I'm not sure if Kelly sees him as someone who can/will beat out Foles. He'd be an upgrade over Orton. Sanchez has the best experience combined with talent on the free agent QB list at this point: http://www.spotrac.com/free-agents/nfl/quarterback/ I suspect Cutler will be a UFA if the Bears are going to swallow the $15 they'll owe him when they cut him. I personally think he's a coach/team killer. RGIII is also likely to be a free agent unless the Redskins want to pay $18M to a QB the coach thinks stinks. However, living in DC, I've always been underwhelmed by RGIII even in his rookie season. He certainly ran the ball well but his accuracy was always poor. Now that he can't run, his lack of talent is completely exposed.

Cutting Cutler would be really painful for the Bears. He is guaranteed $15M for next season unless some fools agree to trade for him at that price. If he's on the Bears next season, he's guaranteed another $10M the next season. His agent was the only one with any brains in that transaction.

I think Carr's draft stock actually slipped because his brother was such a disappointing high pick. He's looked good in the limited action I've seen of him. If the Raiders get the top pick next year, that could be interesting. Carr's played well enough with poor talent around him. Do the Raiders pick a QB at/near the top of the draft? Do they trade the pick away to stockpile for other needs and stick with Carr? At this point, I'm just hoping Sunday is a lonnnnng day for the rook.

There seems to be a lot of inside baseball talk on this thread when we have no real idea what the relationships are like in the clubhouse. For all we know, Whaley may absolutely love Marrone and Hackett. There is just no telling. Every franchise that goes through tough seasons generate rumors about rifts in the management team. It doesn't mean it's true. It's probably often just an indication of highly competitive people working together and that's a good thing. I'm all in favor of keeping Marrone and Hackett given that I really know nothing about the internal team relationships. The team is saddled with a very weak QB situation and has weak OGs. Oddly, aside from those positions, the team has a ton of talent almost everywhere else. Of course, the QB situation is one of those "other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?" sort of things. QB talent is almost everything in this league. Very few teams post strong winning records without a decent or great QB. Folks can site KC or Philly as teams with average QBs but they are both worlds better than what the Bills have. Folks complain about the offense being less than inspiring. Tell you what, get a top 15 QB at the helm and DM and NH could throw a lot more at him and would be immediately considered great coaches. 10-6 is a pipe dream. After a loss this weekend, the Bills should sit Orton and see what kind of progress Manuel can make over the last two games. Find OGs in the offseason and get try to get another QB (or two) to compete the way Seattle did to find Wilson. QB picking has extremely low returns so nobody should really expect anyone they bring in to be the savior. As the NFL shows each year, there are very few franchise QBs out there and it often takes a bit of luck to get one (ala Brady, Wilson, Romo, Brees). Early success is no strong indicator either. See: Griffin, Kapernick, Dalton, Newton, Freeman. It's a crapshoot that we have to deal with.

Every witness is called by one side or the other to bolster their case. It's fair to categorize Spikes' testimony as "for" a particular side even if he's called as a hostile witness. He's obviously not on the witness list because he volunteered or there for entertainment purposes. One side or the other wants him to testify and being curious which side called him is reasonable. From all reports, he was not present during the shooting and is not likely an alibi witness. You normally wouldn't call a character witness until after a conviction so I'm guessing it's the prosecution that is calling Spikes. Perhaps he has some first-hand knowledge of Hernandez owning the type of weapon used in the crime or was privy to a conversation that speaks to the relationship between Hernandez and the victim. Either way, he's there to help one side or the other. Of course, being on the witness list doesn't mean he'll even be called to testify. He may be there as a rebuttal witness that won't be needed during the trial. I think you'll tend to see a lot of "potential" witnesses in a big trial because neither side wants to be accused of calling someone without prior notification, particularly the prosecution.