BisonMan

To modern college age students, meeting someone online is "meeting" them. They don't bother saying "I met her online". They just say "I met her".

Hey, women marry men they've never met after corresponding from prison. Are football players any less foolish. The dude is head's-down in football and a seemingly attractive and attentive woman starts a long-distance relationship with him. They apparently talked a lot (so he reports) and had a strong personal bond (in his mind). I find it both cruel and believable. I personally know someone who met his future wife online and never actually met her in person until he flew overseas to marry her. Odd but true. I watched the ND press conference and the ND people seem convinced that after having investigators look into this that Te'O was the victim of a hoax. I'm sure more will be reported in the coming days but I, at least, find it is plausible that things happened as he says they did.

Prospective GM: "You're how much over the cap?" Jets: "Around $20M" Prospective GM: "OK, then I'm going to need a minimum guaranteed 5 year contract."

Great OP! :thumbsup: I'm very analytics focused and appreciate this type of attention to detail. I'm sure that there may be some bias on individual plays that people could complain about regarding player ratings. However, given the shear number of plays covered, there would have to be a systematic bias on PFF's part to have the ratings be completely off kilter. For those that have actually read their methodology, I'm curious to know what systematic biases you can identify within it. A few here have pointed out the methodological problems with the traditional QB rating. This is why I generally favor the ESPN QBR rating system now. Like it or now, at least they analyze each individual play and evaluation how the QB's performance impacted the results. By QBR, Fitz was 27th out of 36 QBs ranked...and our defense sucked.

We have to remember that the Jets offense was so anemic that the Pats had the ball a lot more against the Jets that they should have. You go 3 and out ten times against the Pats, they'll put up a lot of points against any defense. With a decent QB and a good running game, the Bills should be able to shorten a game and allow a more aggressive defense to get stops and turnovers. I think the 2012 Bills had only ONE defensive TD all year and it was against...the Jets. Pettine should be able to improve a lot on that.

No brainer to interview this guy. He's proven a successful coordinator and this year, because of Chuck Pagano's unfortunate brush with cancer, he's proven he can be a head coach by leading a team to the playoffs with a rookie QB on a team that had the worst record in the league the previous year. What's not to like here?

Unfortunately, too many teams now need a QB so somebody will trade for Smith prior to his bonus payment in March. His bonus and salary are middling for a starter in the league. Waiting for him in FA will cost a lot more money because he'll have multiple suitors. I think SF will trade him or keep him but won't release him to FA. They get nothing if they release him.

Kevin Kolb went for a 2nd and an established CB. I find it hard to believe Smith, with more proven experience and performance, would warrant anything less than a 1 plus a 3. Alternatively, he could probably be had for a proven offensive line starter and a 1 or 2. Of course, it is widely believed that Arizona overpaid for Kolb but the pool of available starters being what it is, I can't imagine Smith going for any less.

There is really no limit to the number of things that you could measure in football because the game is so intricate. The important factors are the ones that smart clubs would rely upon. For example, turnovers are likely a key metric in driving winning percentage. They also might be the most random. For example, forced fumbles might be good but fumble recoveries might not be. Interceptions in man-to-man coverage might be weighted higher than interceptions in zone coverage, etc. For individual positions, each team likely has their own evaluation standards that should be tracked and standardized based on the competition. For example, if a Bills OT gets beat 3 times in one week by JJ Watt, that's not going to be rated as poorly as somebody getting beat 2 times by a second stringer. Essentially, they have to control for the environment (Cetus Paribus for all of your statistics geeks). They may find some metrics telling that nobody really thought were important. For example, a normally stellar CB might experience a blown coverage once every 20 plays but that blown coverage wipes out all the good he's done the other 19 plays in terms of yardage given up or scores. The team might decide that he is worth less than a mediocre CB who never gives up big plays. Everybody knows Revis is great but how do you evaluate two lesser talents with different tendencies? Once they evaluate performances, they have to pour the information into their salary system in order to make sure they aren't overpaying for talent. This is where the Moneyball factors come into play. If the stellar CB is priced more highly by "traditional football minds" and your evaluation systems shows that the mediocre CB delivers the same about in terms of WINS, you pay for the mediocre CB and let Philly sign the other guy. I also think that metrics might dictate the way you play the game as far as the QB position. The A's played the game differently in the early 2000s than other teams did. They took more walks and their slugging percentages were lower. Nonetheless, they won more games than almost anyone else. We may be seeing this played out this year in Seattle where the Seahawks QB does not throw as well by traditional measures as a more traditional QB but they've changed the style of play for the position to get just as much out of him (run option). Obviously, teams will catch up to this going forward to some extent but in the meantime, they are succeeding with a 3rd round rookie at the helm. Anyone wanting to read a cool book on sports statistics and their use by team, try Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won by Tobias Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim. It's terrific.

The more I read, the more I like Whisenhunt. He's offensive minded, which is what every team looks for now. He may be able to bring Ray Horton with him to coach the Bills underachieving defense. He took the Cards to the SuperBowl after turning the franchise around. He was successful as an OC winning the SB with Pittsburgh. I think recent rosters in Arizona limited his ability to succeed. They had no real QB for 2 seasons but wasn't settling for anyone's poor play. So, he tried everything, which is something Gailey refused to do when Fitz faltered. They had no running back and they had no offensive line. Larry FitzG was the only good thing on the whole offense there. Buffalo has a much better running back and line situation and Whisenhunt previously coached a very successful run-based offense for Pittsburgh. That style would work well with a rookie or "game manager" type QB that the Bills are likely to have in the coming year or two.

Greg Jennings or Dwayne Bowe sound like good WR FA pick ups to me. Also, sign Alex Smith (likely FA) and draft a rookie QB for the future.

No way Wilson sells the team before he dies because his heirs (other than his wife) would be double taxed on the sale. First, Wilson would have to pay capital gains taxes on the team which is basically on the entire value of the team given how low a price he paid for it in the 60s (15%). Then, his estate would have to pay inheritance taxes before the proceeds would go to his heirs (again, other than his wife who would not be subject to inheritance taxes on the portion she received). The actual rate of the inheritance tax would obviously depend on when he dies but that isn't a decision point on when to sell the team. For example, if he was going to leave his heirs (other than the Mrs) $500M of the team, selling it now would reduce the inheritance to ~$285M. If they sell the team upon his death, the $500M reduces to just $335M. So, selling it after his death saves his heirs around $50M. Not chump change and 10% of their inheritance. I have always thought a stadium in Niagara Falls would be the best way to keep the Bills in Buffalo provided they came up with a way for Canadian fans to easily cross the border for the games. Drawing from Southern Ontario is the best way for the franchise to stay financially viable and draw in the corporate sponsorship it needs. Changing the name to the the Niagara XXX might also be in order to reflect the regionalization of the team.

Under the salary cap, most teams no longer have much depth because they can't afford it. The Bills are no different although they've had a higher percentage of players go on IR than other teams in the league by most reports. What is really a difference maker across teams is the complexity of the schemes they run on both offense and defense. By that, I mean how complex each position has it within their scheme. A team with players making a lot of decisions both pre-snap and during the play will suffer more acutely when a starter goes down because the replacement has so much to know. Teams with simple schemes tend to weather injuries better. I think the Jets seem to have a complex defense but for each individual player, it's pretty simple. The Bills offense, with so many complex reads on the part of its receivers would suffer more, in my opinion, when players go down. This could help account for the drastic reversals the team has suffered as the seasons roll on.

The Super Bowl on a Sunday benefits the league and the host city the most. TV viewership on Sundays is much higher than Saturdays (where TV shows go to die) because people have other things to do on Saturday nights, particularly among the most coveted demographic (males 18-35). The NFL doesn't want them choosing between chasing tail and watching football. The host cities love the Sunday game because it increases tourism dollars. People traveling for SBs tend to arrive in the host city on Thursday or Friday and stay until Monday morning. If the game were Saturday, they'd leave on Sunday but still wouldn't arrive any earlier than Thursday. Finally, I'm guessing beer (and any other advertisers) have traditionally preferred Sunday because early in the week is when a lot of folks buy groceries and the fresher the ad in their minds, the more likely they buy products. So, Bud commercial on Sunday leads to Bud purchase on Monday. My 2 cents.

So, Belicheat was a crappy coach and then suddenly got good? How about Shanahan from 2011 to 2012. No other real significant personnel changes except QB? Was he a 5-11 coach one day and suddenly a division winner the next? Are there drugs involved here? Gailey fired the DC last year for poor performance. Wanstache could be next, who knows. However, lots of teams have poor sides of the ball but the coaches are still "great". Consider NE, who last year had one of the worst defenses in the league. Did anyone call Belicheat a lousy coach? Nope.

I guess I didn't ask this correctly. I'm not looking for a list of your preferred prospects. I'm asking if the Bills should be looking for a QB that's either a boom/bust player or a steady middling player. Given the Bills won't be able to draft RGIII, Luck or any of the other "sure thing" QBs, which kind should they look for? The Bills won't be picking #1 or #2 and likely will have to settle for a 2nd rounder. So, forget names of QBs. Do we go for high risk, high ceiling or low risk, middle of the pack type?

Would you rather see the Bills draft a QB with a lower ceiling and higher floor or one with a higher ceiling and a lower floor? That is to say, given that the draft is a bit of a crap shoot, should the Bills select a player that appears will be a steady and consistent NFL starter (think Matt Schaub) or one that may have very high potential (ala RGIII) and an equally low floor (ala Vince Young)? My personal opinion is that teams don't win Super Bowls these days generally without a superstar QB (i.e. top 5ish). That's why I think the Texans won't win one anytime soon but they will be a consistent playoff contender. I do think the Redskins have a better shot even though they are probably several pieces still away from it. I know almost zip about college QBs this year. Given my premise, which type of QB would you prefer at this point and which college QB best fits your choice?

Look at the Redskins and/or Colts this year. The Skins went 5-11 last year. Now they lead the NFC East. Similarly, the Colts went from the worst team in the league to the top Wild Card spot. Although they changed head coaches, the new one has been out almost the entire season. QBs make/break teams now, unfortunately. Would the Bills be in the Super Bowl this year with Andrew Luck? No. Would they have a chance within a couple of years? I think so.

Kidnap Gisele and force Brady to demand a trade to WNY because he loves the hotels in Buffalo. Seriously, the Bills eventually need to draft a player they think is a "franchise" QB. I just don't fault them for not thinking one was available to them over the last 3 years. The odds are they would have failed and set the franchise back several years. I don't want them to pick one just to pick one. They can fail at picking other positions poorly without killing the team, not so with QB. My gripe is with everyone that posts here thinking it is easy in hindsight.

I love to watch them as a fan. The Bills must expand or die (in Buffalo). I love rooting for this team want this team around, as a fan. Let's give Toronto time to fall in love with Bills football as much as us morons who have kept hoping for a winner all of these years. At this point, one extra possible win because we play at the Ralph won't change anything until we have a winning team. If we do have a winning team, Toronto will come along.

Stop this nonsense. The Bills passed on 12 QBs in the draft that were picked in the first 3 rounds since Nix/Chan got here. 9 of them aren't good enough to start or haven't proven to be any better than Fitz or aren't even in the league anymore. Only three are "proven" if you can count rookies having good years (Kaepernick, Wilson and Dalton). So, they had a 75% chance of picking wrong as many other teams have shown. Harbaugh is such a genius that he didn't think Kaepernick was good enough to start unless Smith got hurt.Wilson has one of the highest QBRs in the league but no team thought he was good enough to pick until the 3rd round. You know, I must be terrible at the lottery because now that I know what the winning numbers are I should have selected them in the first place. Picking a QB is a crap shoot of sorts and the NFL "geniuses" have shown it time and time again. If everyone was so smart, why did Brady go in the 6th round? Dumb luck.

We all need to come to the realization that an "elite" coach will generally not want to come to a franchise unless he sees a QB there with the talent to make him successful. I think Harbaugh saw that Smith was a lot better than the 6 years and 6 offensive schemes he was saddled with for the first part of his career. We are stuck with the Gailey's of the world until Buffalo gets a top flight QB. Of course, if the Bills get a great QB, Gailey will suddenly look like a great coach and the Bills will keep him too. This story is told over and over again in the NFL. In today's game, QB play generally dictates franchise success. Alex Smith has one of the highest QBR's this year (7th). That means that he's making positive plays to advance his team and much better than the "average" QB. I wouldn't mind having Smith over Fitz and still drafting a QB (or two!) that might become an elite QB in the league.

:thumbsup:

Megatron likely was a business major. That's the easiest degree the school offers, IMHO. Beyond that you're into some form of engineering or biology or international relations/public policy. You can't get a Phys Ed degree or one in Family and Consumer Science or Social Work at GA Tech like at UGA. To be fair, UGA has some excellent programs in Veterinary Sciences, Agriculture, Public Affairs, etc. I just think it's a lot easier to skate through as an athlete at UGA than at Ga Tech. Yes, Megatron was the best football player ever to come out of Ma Tech in 25 years...or more. Tech has very few alumni playing in the NFL and never have/will.

Welcome to America and the free market! It's a business. If any employees that worked for me had such an attitude toward my customers they would likely be fired. Just like owners, players negotiate contracts based on the business of the NFL, not because they play for the love of the game. A smart business owner will try to expand his business, especially if faced with a shrinking market. Fans of the "Buffalo Bills" should welcome market expansion of the team so they don't have to become fans of the "LA Bills".