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Awwufelloff

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Everything posted by Awwufelloff

  1. This is not a Super Bowl team
  2. This defense is utter trash, fire Frazier
  3. Just get the W, don't care how they do it.
  4. https://news.yahoo.com/buffalo-bills-fan-shows-exactly-134822690.html
  5. No intermediate passing game. The game plan is go long... I miss Daboll so much
  6. I jumped off the 2nd floor for you guys! 77” here in Hamburg!
  7. I have 60" here in Hamburg...
  8. I just got over the worst sickness. Was 103 fever for 3 days. Today is day 16 and still coughing up pghlem….
  9. Buf national weather service saying 2-4' feet+ of snow for this one
  10. Godwin came back to full health with same injury and was injured later on then White was.
  11. I'd be surprised if they didn't move the game at this point
  12. Looks like a long duration even lasting from Thursday-Monday.
  13. Very rare. I like Metro Buffalo up to airport as hardest hit area. Where are you located? I do not expect orchard park to be ground zero for this storm. They will get quite a bit of snow, but will likely be south of the heaviest stuff.
  14. Buffalo national weather service now calling for feet of lake effect. I’ll be updating as model runs come in. Follow me on Twitter at Here is discussion from buf NWS .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ...CRIPPLING LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD... No change in available model output and overall H85 and H5 pattern for late this week into the weekend. There remains high confidence that a prolonged southwest flow lake effect event will take place during this period. A deep longwave trough...featuring a vertically stacked low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay...will keep a flow of seasonably cold air in place over the Lower Great Lakes through the weekend to GUARANTEE a lake response. The `formula` for significant lake snow will then come down to whether there is ample synoptic moisture to work with...and of course the direction of the H85 steering flow. Consensus of both ensemble and deterministic guidance packages are in fairly strong agreement of a southwest flow...but placement of accumulating snow bands will have to be further defined as the event nears. Continues to look like KBUF and KART metro areas and their northern suburbs (at least for a time) are favored. This event has some historical precedence, with CIPS analogs comparing to Nov 20, 2000, when many became stranded in their vehicles...or the twin storms that made `Snow-vember` infamous with over five feet of snow? While at this point it is impossible to suggest the same for the upcoming event...it is something to keep in mind. Speaking of correlations...local studies from the KBUF office does show some stark similarities in the synoptic pattern for these larger events. The largest events have near stationary plumes of snow...but it is still way too early to get that detailed. In the wake of a passing shortwave ridge on Thursday...subtle troughing embedded within in the larger scale longwave pattern will produce a deep southwest flow of cold air across Lakes Erie and Ontario. There is a suggestion that the flow will generally be 250- 260 Thursday evening...but with the lakes still relatively warm (nr of abv 10c)...that flow could back some 10 deg over Lake Erie. During the course of Thursday night and Friday...the flow is forecast to back a bit...and this will send well organized lake snow plumes across the Buffalo and Watertown metro areas and potentially into the northern suburbs. Again, placement of these bands will depend on the exact H85 flow...but a southwest (240-250) flow is being favored by guidance at this time. Given the expected presence of moisture up to arnd H7...snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr is becoming more plausible. Details still have to be refined, but there was enough signal and consistency in model guidance to issue winter storm watches Thursday evening through Sunday evening for a potential high impact, long duration lake snow event. If winds back further for longer period of time, then Niagara and Orleans counties would need to be put in a watch as well. Those details can be sorted out next couple days though. While the steering flow will likely oscillate somewhat during the course of the weekend and into early next week...a cold southwest flow is mainly what is being shown by most of the guidance packages. This would keep lake snows in place to the northeast of both lakes with additional significant accumulations possible at times even beyond when initial watch ends.
  15. thats 1:10 ratio too lol most lake effect is 1:20+. This event like most early season events tend to be lower on the ratio scale so I'm expecting 1:14-1:18
  16. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022111412&fh=189&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= Yep historic talk already starting. I'd fly in Thursday night at the latest if possible. I measured 88" of snow in Hamburg for Nov 2014. I'm a trained spotter here.
  17. Agreed. All 4 global models are showing 4-5 feet + of snow this weekend. Will be interesting to see if the higher res guidance agrees the next few days. A watch issued this early is very rare and something to be taken seriously. Lake Erie is at a record high temp due to the warm weather last few weeks.
  18. Yea it looks like this could be a very big storm for Metro Buffalo and surrounding suburbs. Some of the models are spitting out 4-5" of QPF in the form of snow. Most Lake effect snow ratios are 1:20. Has big dog potential and expect it to last into Sunday.
  19. Why didn't we take the 3 pts? What is going on with these coaching decisions....?
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