Bleeding Bills Blue

Kamara had 76 yards on 22 touches - they won that game by being +3 on turnover diff. Kamara hasn't been that great this year either. His 3.6 YPC average is barely better than moss, who is having an absolutely terrible year.

Except for losses to the Trevor siemien led saints, and Taylor heinicke led football team...

NE got a free first down on a 4th down QB sneak that appeared to not gain any yards.

As of now the patriots are the only "consistent" team in the AFC. KC is coming on - but everyone else is flawed. Indy - already has 6 losses, to get to 10-7 they'd need to win 2 of NE, Arizona, LV. Tenn - Should take their division at 10-7 simply because they get jax/houston in their final 5 and Indy already has 6 losses. But i don't feel good about them in pitt, sf, or miami. They look pretty lousy lately. Pitt - Need to win 3 of Minn, Tenn, KC, Cle, Baltimore. Cleveland - Need to win 4 of baltimore, LV, GB, Pitt, Cincy to get to 10 wins... very unlikely Buffalo - Can hit 10-7 if they win 3 out of 5 with carolina, ATL, and the jets. They will be dogs against the bucs and patriots but they can play with either. Cincy - SF, Den, Baltimore, KC, Cleveland. 3 wins to 10-7. Baltimore looks lost out there and injuries are piling up. Chargers are basically the west coast bills with regards to consistency, but i don't see them catching KC. The best team in the AFC right now is New england, and buffalo was a couple of plays away from beating them in adverse conditions that actually favored New England. The other would be KC, who buffalo beat. Go out and change the narrative - beat NE on their field.

Indy wins 3/4 (beats NE) and say loses to LV - 10-7 LV loses to KC but wins out against Cleveland, Denver, Indy, and Chargers - 10-7 Browns lose out to balt LV GB Pitt Cincy 6-11 Denver - win vs det Lose to cincy, lv, chargers, chiefs - 7-10 Chiefs - win vs KC chargers steelers bengals broncos - 13-4 Steelers - W vs Browns, L vs balt, tenn, KC, minn - 7-9-1 Baltimore - W vs browns, packers, rams, steelers, bengals - 13-4 Cincy - W vs 49ers, broncos, Browns - L vs chiefs and ravens - 10-7 LAC - W vs broncos texans giants, L vs chiefs and raiders - 10-7 Tenn - W vs jags, steelers, 49ers, dolphins texans - 13-4 Division winners would be NE, Balt, Tenn, KC. 3 spots remaining would go to any of - Indy, LAC, LV, Cincy, Buffalo. H2H sweep is out as i doubt any of those teams played all 4 of the others so it'd go to AFC record ( in this scenario): Indy - 8-4 LAC - 7-5 LV - 8-4 Cincy - 7-5 Buffalo (assuming losses to TB and NE) - 6-6 But if cleveland beats vegas they'd be out at 9-6. If Denver beats the chargers they would be out. etc. This requires a couple teams to lose all their games or most (Den, Cle, Pitt), as well as indy beating NE and Arizona, KC to lose to LV etc. Cleveland could jump in and the similar scenario would play out where someone like cincy would need to lose a bunch of games. There are a ton of scenarios in play here - but the current likelihood is chaos and some 9-8 or 9-7-1 team sneaking in.

Yes! And even if you do - operate in that play structure. Don't point at the line and jockey for a call - just run the play you called. If you want to throw up a back shoulder play and try and get an interference call sure, but if theres a 1st down to be had that you miss because you wanted an Offside - you're missing the point of the term "free play".

If buffalo wins the next 2 - the division lead would be in play. If buffalo wins 1 of next 2, they would need NE to drop either the jax game or miami game (and assume buffalo can win out against ATL and NYJ)... which while unlikely, its certainly possible NE lose to miami. Playoffs in 3/4 years and currently in a wildcard spot. I mean... there are 3 very winnable games all at home against carolina sans CMC, atlanta, and the jets. That alone puts them at 10-7 and likely in a wildcard spot. It's possible they miss at 10-7, but teams will fade and they all play each other.

Here's the thing... if you don't see the flag fly, why are you assuming it's called?

They're super stout up the middle so teams tend to get away from running the ball. NE ran the ball with backs 6 times for -4 yards and almost won (thats gotta be the strangest stat - a team that had a game and passed 3 times and had another in the same season where they ran it only 6 times). Very takeaway dependent - forced 12 fumbles and have 13 interceptions. Barret, suh, vea, JPP is a fearsome front 4 that will get after it if Buffalo doesn't execute or gameplan to keep them honest. They haven't played the best list of passing offenses either - Giants, Eagles, WFT, Saints, Bears, ATLx2, Indy, Miami, and NE. I'd look at the tape of what they did to stop Mahomes in the SB and figure they look to replicate something similar. Get after with front 4, keep the rush depth short to force Allen away from the LOS when he scrambles, probably play a fair amount of man, and double diggs.

I'd say 0-4 in 1 score games comes to mind. Blocked punt week 1. Titans sneak. Some turnovers in the jags. 2 RZ attempts and 0 points against NE. NE on the other hand is 3-3 in 1 score games. Yep - jags game comes down to a 40 something yard bass FG if daryl williams doesn't completely whiff on a block at the end of the game. Pittsburgh game buffalo was giving up yards but not TDs for the most part, and that blocked punt (whoever missed assignment) basically cost them the game. Dawkins whiffed on a block on that QB sneak and it cost them the game. If Moss bounces his run outside i think he at least gets close to the end zone for a sneak - the outside containment guy had completely abandoned it.

Twice in the 4th quarter. 0 points.

makes sense. I'm thinking ill wear a balaclava and just hope for the best. Maybe a baseball cap and winter cap over it

does that help? Or is it just so you're extra slippery when you run on the field?

Bust status in 11 games his rookie year? Yeesh. He hasn't flashed a ton as a pass rusher but he's been solid in run support. I don't even know how many pass rush snaps he's been getting recently either.

Harbaugh did a similar thing in the game yesterday. Didn't hate it as they'd been gashed the last 3 drives. I do question jumping Offside on 2nd and 2, but i get it. I just look at it like if you can get 2 stops you have a little under 2 minutes and you're kicking to win.

It's a cool storyline. I think they could spin a KC rematch or Buffalo redemption arc if they really wanted to.

I think its almost a lock that a 9-8 team makes it based on remaining schedule. Lot of 50/50 games left on like every teams schedule. Cincy is 7-5 and plays SF, Denver, Baltimore, KC, and Cleveland the rest of the way. Denver is 6-6 and plays Detroit, Cincy, Vegas, LAC, and KC. LAC are 7-5 and play NYG, KC, Houston, Denver, and LV. LV is 6-6 and plays KC, Cle, Denver, Indy, and LAC Indy is 7-6 and plays NE, Arizona, LV, and Jax Cleveland is 6-6 and plays Balt, LV, GB, Pitt, and Cincy Baltimore is 8-4 and plays Cleveland, GB, Cincy, LAR, and Pitt again. Pitt is 6-5-1 and plays Minn, Tenn, KC, Cleveland, and Balt again. Tenn is 8-4 and plays Jax, Pitt, SF, Miami, and Houston. Miami is 6-7 and plays NYJ, NO, Tenn, and NE. Buffalo is 7-4 and plays NE, TB, Carolina, NE again, Atlanta, and NYJ. NE is 8-4 and plays Buffalo, Indy, Buffalo again, Jax, and Miami. KC is 8-4 and gets LV, LAC, Pitt, Cincy, and Denver

I mean... rookies gonna rookie. Rousseau didn't play a year ago either, i had a feeling he'd hit a lull. Rouse is still playing well against the run though.

I mean they blitzed a ton on a bad QB/passing attack. If you commit to it enough you end up with some turnovers, pressure/sacks, and just general ineffective offense. I don't know that they can do that to everyone but its working for them getting them back into the conversation for best team in the AFC. Also, blame that INT on tyreke - it hit him in the hands again.

Neither of us really wanted to go to a MNF game tbh - she usually goes to other games and semi roots for the bills. But we couldn't go in 2019, then there were no fans in 2020 so she hasn't seen her team play since the October monday night game when Buffalo had Derek Anderson in. That game was decided in like the first Honestly I know i won't get to sit down to start tailgating til like 530 to 6, so its just all jammed up and its pitch dark trying to set up and put stuff away. Cold and windy. Oh well.

My wife is a patriots fan and will be in attendance with me!

Yeah - i questioned the julio addition when they did it. I think the idea was to replace corey davis - limit the route tree and have that deep threat over the top, and someone who can make contested catches. Tannehill throws a good deep ball when its there, but Julio's lack of health has harmed them and now without AJ brown they're missing their main threat in the passing game. I'm not sure Julio is straight up washed though either. I also don't really know how to fix a player whos hamstring has been screwed up since the beginning of 2020. Prior to this consistent hamstring issue his injury history was mostly stuff he could play through, and the broken foot that took him out of the 2013 season.

Some injuries on D as well. Obviously on O they're missing henry, julio, brown so... a lot. They're also missing bud dupree, david long, rashaan evans, caleb farley on defense vs. the team that played buffalo. Landry and autry gave us problems, but dupree on the other side requires some additional thought. They were missing both ILB's on defense and it seems like NE made their money in that area of the field. Farley was their 1st round pick and starting CB.

I'd look at patterson. Can take carries in backfield, and mckenzies role - returner if you want. Will probably be more expensive but at least he fills a couple of holes.

I've had him for 2 years. 1st overall, then kept for pick 10 in the first the next year. He's dead to me 10 games played, finished 6 of them. 0 100 yard games in 2020 and 2021. 0 rushes longer than 20 yards. 34 first downs on those carries 158 carries. 29 1st downs on 54 catches 8 TDs across the 10 games 667 yards rushing on 158 carries - 4.2 YPC 492 yards receiving on 54 catches - 9.1 YPC Fantasy wise the usage is high - 20-25 touches per game, and PPR he's good for like 5+ catches per game. His yards per touch were up from 2020 to 2021, but usage per game was probably down a bit. At the end of the day though - High ankle sprian, shoulder injury, hamstring injury, and ankle again. He's still a dynamic player, but could you get similar production out of 2 cheaper backs? Factoring out some truly small sample sizes - Hines, Pollard (this guy is better than zeke), Chase Edmonds, Kenyan drake - these guys all have similar yards per touch. All are paired with more conventional between the tackles rushers. All have better offenses than Carolina, obviously QB is a huge factor here. But he's the among the highest paid players at his position and I don't think his impact is great enough to change them from bottom 5 to top 10. Through looking at all this, i did find some interesting numbers. Despite Kamara averaging more than double the yards per reception (9.7 to 4.5), devin singletary and him have the same yards per touch. Singletary has 5 fumbles and has lost 0 (I feel like all of these aren't fumbles, but why would you challenge something for stats if you recovered it)