Bleeding Bills Blue

Cincy went to the super bowl - but they were only 10-7 in a year where Cleveland and Baltimore had really rough years injury wise. Their defense has a really good rush defense so they'll always be a tough mark for others in the division (everyone in that division wants to run the ball). They have really solid skill players on offense and have tinkered with the offensive line to try and keep burrow standing up. They used some picks on the secondary - but that unit was bad all year long and I'm not sold on them doing enough there. Assuming injured players come back healthy - Humphrey/Peters/Clark/Hamilton/Fuller is about as good a secondary as you can get and this team usually gets after it pressure wise. They had the worst pass defense in the league in 2021, which i'd wager is highly unlikely to reoccur. Dobbins and Edwards are also such massive upgrades over the old guys they were forced to use a year ago. I think it will be competitive - my pick is ravens - but i could see Cincy winning the division too. Baltimore had a winning record in the previous 4 seasons, and injuries are largely to blame for a defense going from top 10 the previous 3 seasons to 25th. They also went from top 10 in turnover diff, to bottom 5.

We brought him in to do both.

Only thing thats weird is he almost never stiffarms. Always seems to cover up the ball at the end of runs. Ball security won't be an issue if he does this but it sort of limits you on long runs when you cover the ball up and barrel into the safety - Not really setting yourself up to slip that tackle. He did fumble last year - the dolphins one where he didn't cover up and the helmet popped the ball after a catch. He has 2 fumbles listed... but the other one was as he was diving out of bounds, the ground forced it, and he was probably touched on the way down (but why challenge it).

Pretty much this - Moss might not dress some games too. Here's a fun stat - in the top 10 of 2021 carries: Henry played 8 games Montgomery played 13 Chubb played 14 Kamara 13 Cook 13 Gibson and Mixon both played 16 Its not likely that a back plays every game. Its also not likely that they don't get dinged up and touch the ball less than normal in a stretch.

A lot of the criticism for Moss last season was on a lot of the same types of thing. "He didn't read it right" - which to me could mean A- He didn't read it correctly, or B- They didn't block it correctly. Singletary had a few nice games as the year went on, but they were against atlanta and the jets. Played well in NE as well. They more emphasized giving him touches than him being especially effective. He had 16 ore more touches 4 times last year and it was in 4 of the last 6 games. The Touchdowns were a nice touch for fantasy purposes, and generally for Josh Allen healthiness :-). Moss broke more tackles on fewer carries, and had probably the worst yards before contact in the NFL. Some of that can be tied to lacking some burst maybe on the ankle, or some indecisiveness etc. But 1.5 yards before contact per attempt? Worse than Najee Harris, Saquan Barkley, Mattison etc. Its among the worst numbers in the league. The offensive line didn't block well for him (or singletary for that matter). However the league leader in attempts/broken tackle was javonte williams at 6.5, and if Moss met the threshold to qualify (he only had 96 carries) he would have been 2nd at 6.9. Moss 8.6 att/br in 2020 was 4th in the league behind Montgomery, Gibson, and Mike Davis. He's still a load to bring down, he just needs to get a little juice to get to the hole a bit faster maybe? I wouldn't give up on him though.

Yeah - the backshoulder pick looked like a total miscommunication, and the other one was admittedly high, but it hit hands.

Was he that bad? He played 23 snaps - what did he run like 6 routes? Duke Johnson had 7 touches for 10 yards.

The blockers and gunners are usually the same guys. The weather in buffalo is not specifically ideal for someone to just blast off on kickoffs and punts regularly. As for the list Duke Johnson or Taiwan jones? I'd probably lean taiwan - he was a captain here last year vs. Duke Johnson. Johnsons role was taken when they drafted Cook. Send blackshear to the PS. Hodgins or Kumerow? I see benefits to both - Kumerow did fumble in preseason action but he's largely the same build as Hodgins. Hodgins having a nice camp is good for him after having sat on the PS last year behind Kumerow. Lewis or Neal? Neal is a primary backup in the slot, and has experience at safety and linebacker from college. In addition he's a good special teams player. Lewis it seems has been surpassed by new draft picks as well as Jackson. Matakevich or spector? Tough call I guess if you want to base keeping players based on a preseason game. Matakevich has a pretty steep cap hit and would likely have been cut earlier if he wasn't in the plans down the line. He was also a special teams captain last year. Its almost like 40 players are drafted in the 7th round - plus this list of UDFAs: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/undrafted-free-agents/

Cool - lets put him on Kelce and see if you sing his praises.

I know antonio brown left the team and whatnot - but he did play 50% of snaps on offense last year. And 89 on special teams. I'd say Johnson fits more into the shakir spot.

For much of the same reason i don't like joint practices - you have to really limit time to prevent injuries. Some starters I'm fine with others not so much. I don't see a reason for Allen to play, or diggs, or von.

Gilliam is in the TE total over sweeney. If you keep 9 oline you can carry 6 LBs. Carrying 6 corners because of the uncertainty around Tre. Oline projection - Dawkins-Saffold-Morse-Bates-Brown Quessenberry, Doyle, Mancz, Tenuta with boettger on pup. We only start 2 LBs on 90% of snaps, and the 3 depth options are all pretty capable. Depends who you like more - Spector, Ford, Hart, Sweeney, Hodgins.

opens it up for what though? Who are the fringe players that we need to keep that can't contribute on special teams? I see it like this - 2 QBs 4 RBs - Jones included 7 WRs - Hodgins makes 53 3 TEs - Sweeney cut 9-10 OL 9-10 DL 5 LB 6 cb 4 s 3 specialist So you keep both kumerow and hodgins - hodgins or Shakir (or both) aren't active on game days.

Just keep 7. Gilliam as FB/TE3 and cut sweeney.

Wouldn't we want to just punt it high to like the 5-10 range and either force FCs or down it?

The league leader in TBs is 10. TBs are a bad stat for punters. 7 in 52 is freaking terrible btw.

Maybe, maybe not... we'll never know. You won't always be on the winning side of back of the roster moves. Sometimes you give up on a player too early (Teller), or hold on to someone too long (Ford). That much turnover between coaches, personnel, philosophy - it was likely basically a new start for all the players and over the course of camp he was passed over for whatever reason. Maybe during the season he would have figured it out, but through camp they felt comfortable letting him go based on his performance.

Cool - he very likely never would have played. Ford being a 2nd rounder, and then the trade to acquire Bates who they liked were more likely the driving factors to his trade. We did use the 5th rounder in the Diggs trade, and the 6th on Tyler bass FWIW.

You usually keep 8-9 Oline - and the end of roster guys usually play a few spots. Dawkins, Spain, Morse, Feliciano, Ford Nsekhe Swing tackle, Long G/C, Bates, Boettger

They traded him - and it likely had nothing to do with special teams. I think the Juan Castillo year was probably not a good start. In 2019 they knew the line sucked, brought in a new line coach as well as Spain, Morse, Feliciano, Ford, Nsekhe, Long - as well as Bates and Boettger. He was essentially usurped by Spain and Feliciano at starting G, Long can dress as a depth G/C, and bates and Boettger were more positionally flexible. Ford started at T for much of the year and Nsekhe was swing tackle.

Well your traditional #5WR, #3 RB, and #4LB don't usually play much at all over the course of a game. They can obviously fill in in a pinch, but they're active on gamedays for ST snaps. Who are we cutting to keep them? Duke Johnson is unlikely to make it here. Baylon Spector projects to someday be Matakevich and can probably go to PS. Hodgins I guess you could make an argument for - but you can probably just stash him on 53 and cut Sweeney. Are Duke Johnson, a 7th rounder who might fit on the PS, and tommy sweeney worth giving up core special teamers?

Just not seeing the game fast enough. You can't win if you don't score, playing tentative like that will prevent turnovers and result in punts.

I'm left with a terrible taste in my mouth after that week 18 game, and just the 5 games at the end of the year for him were really lousy. 72/140 - 51% comp - 795 yards or 159 per game. Added another 160 on the ground on 16 carries including a 52 yard TD. 3/0 TD to INT 19 sacks for 159 yards lost So essentially 650 yards on 175 pass snaps with another 160 on the ground - 800 yards across 5 games and 4 total TDs. I know Allens final 5 or 6 games were promising to watch, and the numbers weren't super impressive either but we can compare. 86/162 - 53% comp - 1082 yards or 216.4 per game. Added 377 on the ground including 4 TDs. 8/7 TD to INT 7 sacks for 46 yards lost. So 1000 yards across about 170 pass snaps. The 377 on the ground was a mix of pass plays and designed runs. 12 TDs to 7 Ints. One of those reads as a playmaker, the other reads like.. i dunno Marcus Mariota?

Gardner is supposed to be very good. Their DBs are still bad even with him added. I think between drafting becton in 2020, and Fant - they didn't see a huge need at tackle? I

I feel like his release isn't as compact either. All the weird platform throws are great, but the compact repeatable release is what helps with timing the most. But at the end of the day its what happens between the ears that matters the most anyway.