We are sort of saying the same thing, and I get the 3 point thing, but I think you are still missing my point. That percentage you posted (15%) is based on playing a month and a half with a heavily injured team. If we play the rest of the season without Eichel and O'reilly, then yes, I completely agree with those numbers (and think they are a bit generous in that scenario). But hopefully our top players can stay reasonably healthy, and if they do, that percentage means squat. The math doesn't lie, it's just often interpreted incorrectly.
Also that math is wrong. Since Jack has come back we've earned 7 out of 10 points, and if we continue at that rate we'll wind up with 104 points. That's not squeaking in, that's 3rd or 4th seed territory.
Even if we only play 5-3-2 like we have over our last 10 games (5 without Jack, 4 without O'Reilly) that would put us on a pace for 93 points, and right on the edge.
Ultimately, I think it's just too early to pay attention to playoff percentages. On an NFL scale, we've played the equivalent of 5 games, and playoff percentages aren't taken seriously in the 1st week of October.
Back to that game... there's clearly something wrong with Eichel. He didn't have the same burst. Still fantastic as a QB on the PP but...
Also is there anyone in the league faster than McDavid?