hondo in seattle

"free agency signings will start at 2:00 PM ET on July 27 and training camps for all teams will open on July 27" Ooops! Let's try again. Some key dates: JULY July 23: Voluntary training, conditioning and classroom instruction permitted until first day of clubs' preseason training camps. July 23: Pre-2011 League Year Period commences. 2011 Free Agency List to be issued and will become effective on the first day of the 2011 League Year (July 27). Clubs/players may begin to renegotiate contracts. Clubs may begin to sign Drafted Rookies and their own UFAs, RFAs, Exclusive Rights Players and Franchise Players. July 23: Waivers begin for the 2011 League Year. July 23: Starting at 2:00 PM ET, clubs may negotiate with, but not sign, Undrafted Rookie Free Agents, free agents, and other clubs' UFAs, RFAs, and Franchise Players. July 24: Starting at 2:00 PM ET, clubs may begin to sign undrafted rookie free agents. July 27: 2011 League Year commences at 2:00 PM ET, provided NFLPA has ratified CBA. Free Agency Signing Period begins. Clubs may sign free agents and other clubs' Unrestricted Free Agents. Clubs may sign Offer Sheets. Trading period begins. All Clubs must be under the Salary Cap. Top 51 rule applies. July 27: Expand rosters to 90-man limit. July 27: Training Camps open for all clubs, provided NFLPA has ratified CBA. Day One activities limited to physicals, meetings, and conditioning. No pads permitted on Day Two or Day Three.

Chas, thanks for posting. Anyone want to take an early shot at a depth chart?

Good teams have depth at every position. Orton isn't a superstar but he is a reasonably good QB. I'd probably prefer Fitz as the starter (more for his leadership ability than his arm) but Orton would make us stronger at the QB position. He'd be useful in the film room, on the sideline, and if Fitz got hurt. So I think this is a good idea... but not at 9 mil if that's the actual cost.

How about Peyton Manning???? From PFT.... Drew Brees and Peyton Manning both are requesting to be exempt from the franchise tag for the rest of their careers, according to Greg A. Bedard of the Boston Globe. Bedard’s source says that would be effective immediately, which would conceivably make Manning an unrestricted free agent next week. (Now that would fun.) http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/07/19/rosenhaus-predicts-most-active-two-weeks-in-nfl-history/related/ Btw, Drew Rosenhaus is saying this will be the “most active two-week period in the history of the NFL.”

SI discuss two Bills scenarios... Buffalo Bills Money is no object: If the Bills are going to break the bank anywhere, it must be on left tackle Doug Free or tackle Jared Gaither. The line is a mess and needs an anchor around which to build. If they want to spend big on the defensive side, it should be on end Ray Edwards, who would be a perfect fit. Smart shopper: Thomas Howard could fit in the 3-4 and would be a front-line player at less than a king's ransom. Perhaps an even better value as a fix for the defensive issues in Buffalo could be Vernon Gholston, who may also be a target of Cleveland's. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/john_lopez/07/19/afc-free-agency-guide/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_t11_a1

JW, it's always a pleasure having you here. Hope those who use boards like this to vent their pent up aggression never drive you away. I'm curious to learn what the new cap will be and whether or not there will be a spending floor. If so - depending on the numbers - the Bills might be required to make a big name signing just to meet the minimum payroll requirement. Of course, your projected shopping list (OL, DB, TE, backup QB) is pretty extensive and cumulatively could come out to a fair amount of money if all these wants are covered (especially since the Bills are a cash-to-cap franchise).

ESPN is saying Free Agency will be very short according to the agreement on the table now... "The Transition Rules spell out an actual timeline for roster transactions under the July 21 deal scenario, including the start of the new league year during which free agents would become eligible for the open market on July 28. With the tight timeline, teams will be scrambling to fill rosters that must be set at 90 players on roughly Aug. 3 -- but all training camps would be able to open on time." We'll only have about a week to sign FAs? Wow. Nix and Co. will need to move fast. Players will need to make quick decisions.

This is going to be a very unusual free agency. There's a lot of speculation that all teams will be required to spend at least 90% of a record-high cap. And free agency is obviously starting late and will close quickly. Truckloads of money are going to be spent fast and furiously. Anyone care to guess how this will play out for the Bills? Will we ink some mega-deals? Will Nix take a more conservative approach? Who might we sign? (JW ~ if you're out there, I'd love to learn your opinion).

In support of sllib, I heard Ron Wolf once talking about the draft and his comments can be modified for free agency... He said his goal each draft was to pick one or two difference-makers, Pro Bowl caliber guys. He didn't care where they came. Maybe the first two draft picks were busts but he got Pro Bowlers in the 5th and 6th rounds. This would be a great draft in his eyes. He said he didn't grade his draft by how many starters he got because you can find serviceable starters anywhere. Every team has 'starters' but only a few teams win much. The goal is to find impact players.

http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/columns/larry-felser/article468331.ece I usually agree with Larry but today he sounds almost Sully-esque in his negativity. While the strike/lockout certainly isn't good for player development and evaluation, I think the coaching staff will have plenty of time (if the madness ends soon) to evaluate their newer, younger players long before the 2012 draft. Let's remember, too, that none of Larry's concerns affect the Bills competitiveness. Every club is facing the very same challenges. I'm going out on a limb and assuming Gailey and his coaches have already considered the issues that Felser has raised and have already developed a plan that's about as good as the plans developed by any other coaching staff. (On second thought, maybe the more veteran teams do have an advantage). Also, I don't think it's anything close to a foregone conclusion that Andrew Luck will be the first pick in the next draft. College football seasons are always full of surprising rises and falls.

Happy to read this in King's piece: "Surprised at me having Kyle Williams 27 while the players, apparently, don't have him in the top 100? Watch some video of him. He consistently occupies two blockers. Always moving forward. A machine. I remember talking to Chan Gailey about him last year. This is a man who coached Emmitt Smith, Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin -- and I do believe I have never heard him rave about any player the way he raved to me about Williams."

"Then Jerry adds an extra layer of gossip with "Wilson has no known succession plan." (Wilson is smart, of course he has a succession plan... it's just not known to the public.. for good reason)" Jim Kelly has hinted that there is a succession plan. And it includes the Bills staying in Buffalo. The truth is that Jerry doesn't know what Wilson's heirs plan to do. This is - like most of Sully's articles - pessimistic speculation. That's is not to say that I am not concerned. Sully's information, while not new, is worrisome. A profit-minded businessman would put the Bills somewhere else. Buffalo is not only a small market - it's also not a growth market. Let's hope Jimbo is right.

We're Bills fans! We're supposed to be manly, beer drinking blue collar troglodytes! Yet here we are discussing... fashion?!?!?! What's happening to us???

Mike Sando (ESPN) lists his Top Ten coaches: Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Tom Coughlin, Mike McCarthy, Sean Payton, Mike Tomlin, Rex Ryan, Ken Whisenhunt, Lovie Smith and Mike Shanahan.

I think Chan will prove himself a better coach than Dick because of his superior leadership skills. Yet I do actually believe our coaching was worse last year than the year prior - on Defense and Special Teams - and that explains our drop in wins. I'm glad Chan hired Stache-Wanny because Edwards - in his first year as a coordinator - was clearly not Fewell's equal. (Fewell's Giants were #7 in the NFL in yards allowed last year). And let's remember Jauron was himself a competent defensive coach. And as much as I liked Bruce DeHaven his first go around with the Bills, I'm starting to wonder if the NFL is passing him by. Bobby April is a tough act to follow and I'm not sure Bruce is up to the task.

I don't think players determine how good a coach is. Only how many wins he gets. A good coach is someone who gets the best out of his players. If we had 2-14 talent last year but still won 4 games, then Chan is already a good coach.

The Bleacher Report rates Gailey the 29th best head coach in the NFL. Agree or disagree? http://bleacherreport.com/articles/719754-power-ranking-all-32-nfl-head-coaches-in-the-game-today/page/5 29. Chan Gailey, Buffalo Bills Winning in the AFC East is not an easy thing to do when you have to play the New England Patriots, New York Jets and Miami Dolphins six times each year. Chan Gailey knows this all too well. Gailey is known as a brilliant offensive coordinator, going back to his days on Bill Cowher's staff in Pittsburgh. While Gailey may have amazing game plans and a brilliant scheme, his development of players is lacking. Gailey, in two stops as an NFL coach, has never shown the ability to find talent or mold existing players in to more than they were before him. Career Record: 22-26 Playoff Record: 0-2 (Dallas) Notable Accomplishments: 1 NFC East Championship, 2 Playoff Berths

Using replacement players would dilute the TALENT pool - but only temporarily. Current college stars would still sign with the NFL after future drafts because it's still - by far - the best paying gig in town. The risk of a hardline approach is that the TALENT would migrate to a new league if one were formed. But setting up a competitively capitalized alternate professional football league quickly enough would be a challenging endeavor. If NFL players are slaves then I want to be a slave. But players are far from slaves. They have options. If they really want to play games for a living, they can join the CFL or some other league. Or they can finish their college degrees and enter regular working society like the rest of us. It seems to me disrespectful of truly enslaved people - past and present - to refer to NFL millionaires as slaves.

When you hire a guy to mow your lawn, who decides how much he gets paid? You or him? If I ran the NFL, I wouldn't negotiate with the organization that used to be the NFLPA. I would simply hire replacement players and carry on. Yep, it would be a financial disaster. Either way - concessions to the former NFLPA or going forward with replacements - is going to cost the NFL money. I'd rather lose in the short term and gain in the long. Next year, draftees would have a choice. Either sign with the NFL and play for millions or align themselves with a union that doesn't actually exist and is accomplishing nothing. Most of these young guys don't have the financial means to support a strike. They'd sign and play while Brady and Manning continued to sit. After a few years, we'd fill the clubs with enough college stars that the fans would come back. Many of the former members of the former NFLPA would sign too eventually. They'd come to appreciate that playing for a mill a year is better than working at Walmart. There might be a few players with money in the bank who stick to their principles and support the NFLPA to the bitter end. Oh well, life goes on. No individual is indispensable. Sooner or later, the NFL would flourish with a new crop of players who won't dare to become too greedy. Strikes would become a thing of the past.

C'mon... this was both original and amusing!

I think Jackson and Lynch are underrated, especially Jackson. With few holes to run through, they've both put up decent numbers. Jackson #3 in the league in forced missed tackles (#2 in the NFL in forced missed tackles per touch) and #2 most elusive. He also has a high Yards After Contact figure. Numbers courtesy of Pro Football Focus. http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/03/24/elusive-rating-2010/ Forced Missed Tackles, Top 10 Player Team Att. Rush.MT Rec. Rec.MT Total MT Adrian L. Peterson MIN 283 46 36 7 53 Michael Turner ATL 334 46 12 5 51 Fred Jackson BUF 222 42 31 9 51 LeGarrette Blount TB 201 50 5 0 50 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 276 42 47 8 50 Chris D. Johnson TEN 316 44 44 5 49 Arian Foster HST 327 31 66 18 49 Rashard Mendenhall PIT 324 42 23 6 48 Peyton Hillis CLV 270 31 61 11 42 Darren McFadden OAK 222 30 47 12 42 Elusive Rating, Top 10 Player Team Att. Yds YCo YCo / Att. MT Rec. Rec.MT Elusive Rating LeGarrette Blount TB 201 1007 739 3.7 50 5 0 89.8 Fred Jackson BUF 222 939 646 2.9 42 31 9 58.5 Ryan Torain WAS 164 744 536 3.3 28 18 4 58.0 Darren McFadden OAK 222 1157 766 3.5 30 47 12 54.6 Mike Goodson CAR 103 439 288 2.8 18 36 9 54.4 Marshawn Lynch SEA 165 573 440 2.7 30 21 7 53.7 Adrian L. Peterson MIN 283 1298 877 3.1 46 36 7 51.5 Jonathan Stewart CAR 178 770 484 2.7 30 8 4 49.4 Mewelde Moore PIT 33 99 96 2.9 4 26 6 49.2 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG 276 1239 829 3.0 42 47 8 46.4

It seems like we all pretty much agree on Lee and Roscoe. We know what we have with them. Some of us are more optimistic about the others - who are largely unknown. Even Stevie isn't particularly well-known yet. (Will he progress his second year? Regress? Stay the same? How much of his production last year was the result of being a no-name #2?) Because of the optimism, some rate the rest of the WRs higher than Lee and Roscoe, both of whom have known flaws. It seems we did this last year too but with QBs. There were many here who in their loyal, but unfounded, optimism wanted Brian Brohm to start at QB. We often too-clearly see the downsides of the veterans and the upsides of the newer faces. I think an objective observer would rate Evans and Parrish in the top 3 of our WR core. But bless the optimists who see Johnson, Nelson and Easley moving past them this year. I hope they all prove to be that talented and productive.

I guess sarcasm isn't recognized here. I was just turning the original post backwards to show the absurdity

So it's bad to draft defenders who are so good they create three-and-outs? If we draft the best Offense in the history of football, they'll hardly be on the field because it will be One-And-Done with a TD! So then all these high offensive draft picks will be wasted because they'll never be on the field. And the defense will tire out because they have to return to the field so quickly.

I have a friend who's a retired Colonel and now does secret stuff for the govt. keeping the world safe for democracy. Since he's too busy to read the sports much, I emailed him a Bills update that I thought I'd share with you guys even though there are no great insights for those here: Buddy Nix was brought in to be the Bills GM last year and this year he finally revamped the personnel department. Amongst many changes, Tom Modrak was fired. Modrak was brought in by Tom Donahue 10 years ago to head up college scouting. Donahue didn't last long, but Modrak survived - until now - despite a dismal record of failure: Bill Polian/John Butler Golden Age 1983… Jim Kelly (Hall of Famer) 1984… Greg Bell (had Pro Bowl season with the Bills) 1985… Bruce Smith (Hall of Famer) 1986… Ronnie Harmon (had moderately productive 12 year career) 1987… Shane Conlan (Pro Bowler) 1988… Thurman Thomas (no 1st round pick; Thomas taken in 2nd round; Hall of Famer) 1989… Don Beebe (no 1st round pick; taken in 3rd round; productive starter) 1990… James Williams (productive starter) 1991… Henry Jones (Pro Bowler) 1992… John Fina (productive 11 year NFL career) 1993… Thomas Smith (productive 9 year NFL career) 1994… Jeff Burris (productive 10 year NFL career) 1995… Ruben Brown (8 consecutive Pro Bowls as a Bill) 1996… Eric Moulds (3 Pro Bowls as a Bill; one of the most talented receivers in Bills history) 1997… Antowain Smith (good but unspectacular NFL career) 1998… Sam Cowart (went to Pro Bowl as a Bill but then cut after an injury) 1999… Antoine Winfield (Pro Bowler) Tom Donahue/Tom Modrak Era of Misery 2001… Nate Clements (made one Pro Bowl as a Bill) 2002… Mike Williams (4th overall pick; monumental bust) 2003… Willis McGahee (decent starter; attitude and other issues; now a second-teamer with the Ravens) 2004… J.P. Losman (bust; not currently on a NFL roster) 2005… Roscoe Parish (no 1st round pick; taken in 2nd round; not a starter) 2006… John McCargo (huge bust; never earned a starting position) 2007… Marshawn Lynch (fair starter; off field problems; now a second-stringer with Seattle) 2008… Leodis McKelvin (has yet to earn a starting position) 2009… Aaron Maybin (huge bust; drafted as a sack specialist; has yet to record a NFL sack in 2 seasons; not even on the active roster many Sundays) 2010… C.J. Spiller (has yet to earn a starting position; this may be more a Buddy Nix pick) More than half of the Polian/Butler first picks became Pro Bowlers. Three have been inducted into the Hall of Fame. Nearly all became solid starters. Virtually none of the Donahue/Modrak 1st picks became Pro Bowlers. About half never even earned starting positions on crappy Bills squads. Three high 1st round picks were busts. The NFL players just voted the Top 100 players currently in the NFL. Not a single Bill made the Top 100. This year's draft got mixed grades from pundits. Some say it was great, maybe the best in the NFL. The Bills picked a lot of defensive players from big schools who have a high probability of success in the NFL. Some draft gurus gave the Bills only a fair or poor grade mostly because they didn't take a QB. QB is a funny position in the draft. About half of 1st round QBs are busts. Any other position is safer. 1st round linemen, for example, have a fairly high degree of NFL success. So do you waste an early pick on a QB when the probabilities are bad? On the other hand, most great teams have franchise QBs who they found in the draft (e.g. Brady, Manning, Rodgers). While Fitz wasn't a star last year, he was serviceable. Personally, I'm glad the Bills resisted the temptation to take a QB. There were bigger needs while none of the QBs in the draft were can't-miss types...