hondo in seattle

I guess sarcasm isn't recognized here. I was just turning the original post backwards to show the absurdity

So it's bad to draft defenders who are so good they create three-and-outs? If we draft the best Offense in the history of football, they'll hardly be on the field because it will be One-And-Done with a TD! So then all these high offensive draft picks will be wasted because they'll never be on the field. And the defense will tire out because they have to return to the field so quickly.

I have a friend who's a retired Colonel and now does secret stuff for the govt. keeping the world safe for democracy. Since he's too busy to read the sports much, I emailed him a Bills update that I thought I'd share with you guys even though there are no great insights for those here: Buddy Nix was brought in to be the Bills GM last year and this year he finally revamped the personnel department. Amongst many changes, Tom Modrak was fired. Modrak was brought in by Tom Donahue 10 years ago to head up college scouting. Donahue didn't last long, but Modrak survived - until now - despite a dismal record of failure: Bill Polian/John Butler Golden Age 1983… Jim Kelly (Hall of Famer) 1984… Greg Bell (had Pro Bowl season with the Bills) 1985… Bruce Smith (Hall of Famer) 1986… Ronnie Harmon (had moderately productive 12 year career) 1987… Shane Conlan (Pro Bowler) 1988… Thurman Thomas (no 1st round pick; Thomas taken in 2nd round; Hall of Famer) 1989… Don Beebe (no 1st round pick; taken in 3rd round; productive starter) 1990… James Williams (productive starter) 1991… Henry Jones (Pro Bowler) 1992… John Fina (productive 11 year NFL career) 1993… Thomas Smith (productive 9 year NFL career) 1994… Jeff Burris (productive 10 year NFL career) 1995… Ruben Brown (8 consecutive Pro Bowls as a Bill) 1996… Eric Moulds (3 Pro Bowls as a Bill; one of the most talented receivers in Bills history) 1997… Antowain Smith (good but unspectacular NFL career) 1998… Sam Cowart (went to Pro Bowl as a Bill but then cut after an injury) 1999… Antoine Winfield (Pro Bowler) Tom Donahue/Tom Modrak Era of Misery 2001… Nate Clements (made one Pro Bowl as a Bill) 2002… Mike Williams (4th overall pick; monumental bust) 2003… Willis McGahee (decent starter; attitude and other issues; now a second-teamer with the Ravens) 2004… J.P. Losman (bust; not currently on a NFL roster) 2005… Roscoe Parish (no 1st round pick; taken in 2nd round; not a starter) 2006… John McCargo (huge bust; never earned a starting position) 2007… Marshawn Lynch (fair starter; off field problems; now a second-stringer with Seattle) 2008… Leodis McKelvin (has yet to earn a starting position) 2009… Aaron Maybin (huge bust; drafted as a sack specialist; has yet to record a NFL sack in 2 seasons; not even on the active roster many Sundays) 2010… C.J. Spiller (has yet to earn a starting position; this may be more a Buddy Nix pick) More than half of the Polian/Butler first picks became Pro Bowlers. Three have been inducted into the Hall of Fame. Nearly all became solid starters. Virtually none of the Donahue/Modrak 1st picks became Pro Bowlers. About half never even earned starting positions on crappy Bills squads. Three high 1st round picks were busts. The NFL players just voted the Top 100 players currently in the NFL. Not a single Bill made the Top 100. This year's draft got mixed grades from pundits. Some say it was great, maybe the best in the NFL. The Bills picked a lot of defensive players from big schools who have a high probability of success in the NFL. Some draft gurus gave the Bills only a fair or poor grade mostly because they didn't take a QB. QB is a funny position in the draft. About half of 1st round QBs are busts. Any other position is safer. 1st round linemen, for example, have a fairly high degree of NFL success. So do you waste an early pick on a QB when the probabilities are bad? On the other hand, most great teams have franchise QBs who they found in the draft (e.g. Brady, Manning, Rodgers). While Fitz wasn't a star last year, he was serviceable. Personally, I'm glad the Bills resisted the temptation to take a QB. There were bigger needs while none of the QBs in the draft were can't-miss types...

I really admire Ralph's loyalty. As Buffalo has declined over the years, he could have moved the franchise to a big market city (like LA, for example) and made a pile of cash. And he's been loyal to the Buffalo area despite not being a Buffalonian. He was born and raised in Detroit and still lives in that area. The only reason we have a Bills club to cheer for, and moan about, is Ralph Wilson. I don't admire Ralph's ability. The Bills all-time regular season record is 358-406-8 (.469) and we've never won a Super Bowl. Just dumb random luck would produce a .500 record and 1 SB win. He seems to have tremendous patience with incompetency. And he's driven away some very good personnel guys.

A year ago, the Bills took some flak for hiring an old guy like Nix to be the General Manager instead of an up-and-coming personnel superstar. For example, one NFL insider said this immediately after Nix's hiring was announced. “The Buffalo hire is a joke and a slap in the face to all hard working people in the NFL... Bills fans can rest assured that, a year from now, two years from now, and three and four years from now, the team will still be in last place in the AFC East. The Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins continue to make moves to get better while the Bills just tread water. There are good people who were very interested in that job, like Dave Gettelman, Scott Studwell and Doug Whaley that never got a chance. All those guys could have helped that team." http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/01/01/bills-decision-to-hire-nix-draws-criticism/?related=1 I can't find it but I think SI's Peter King once voiced a similar opinion that the Bills should have considered Whaley for the GM position. Yet the Bills ended up with the best of both worlds, the experience and subtle wisdom of an old-timer (Nix) and the vigor and keen intellect of youth (Whaley). I'm looking for Nix to continue grooming Whaley for a couple years before completely handing over the reins to him. Already Whaley's new job description makes it sound like he's already the GM.

Clearly the owner owns the results of any franchise. And Ralph does seem to have a pattern, for whatever reason, of driving good personnel people out while letting poor personnel people linger. This helps explain why the Bills have won less than half their games since their inception. So I really don't disagree much with anything you say. I just think Modrak deserves a lion's share of blame for our woeful drafts during his tenure. RW is not the reason Modrak failed. RW failed by keeping Modrak around so long. I'm hoping Nix proves as adept as Polian but sticks around longer.

I know we all like to blame RW but Modrak's draft record has been abysmal. I was surprised Nix retained him but it would have been tumultuous to fire Modrak at first and Nix probably wanted time to evaluate his work and the work of the whole scouting department, not knowing how much might be blamed on Wilson and Jauron. Now with a year-plus of evaluation, it's time to say goodbye. It would have been too disruptive to terminate Modrak before the draft though I suspect the decision was made weeks, if not months, ago. I doubt if RW does his own scouting. If he did indeed make bad draft day decision (and I've never been convinced he was all that involved), it was because Modrak system of evaluating talent and presenting those evaluations to RW (and Jauron) was flawed. This isn't a popular sentiment but I don't think Jauron's win-loss record was that bad considering what Modrak and Brandon gave him to work with.

http://www.lesliemikejaspernfl.com/pictures/image5.jpg

Only about 50% of 1st round QBs become solid starters in the NFL. I would guess that this year the odds are longer. None of these guys seems like a sure-fire hit. Do we really want to spend #3 on a 3 to 1 long shot? And then spend 3-4 years fooling around with the guy because we want to give him every chance in the world because he's a #3? I realize most franchise QBs are picked early but this is not the year to go QB at #3.

Why do you say he's two years away? Poor footwork? Bad mechanics? Can't read defenses? Immature? Unless you defend your opinion, it's meaningless.

Obviously any coach - or fan - wants accuracy and good decision making. I think the news here is that Chan did not say anything about mobility. Some coaches are thinking the Vick model is the wave of the future. Chan's apparently not on that bandwagon - if we can believe what he's currently saying and this isn't just part of the Bills deception plan.

Just a little fun On April One Should have disguised it better

I think there have been some interesting hints from Nix-Gailey regards draft philosophy. First of all, they talk about “risk-reward.” Obviously someone like Cam Newton offers a big reward but at a big risk. Unfortunately, there are no “can’t-miss” QBs in this draft. As Nix says, this might be his only chance to draft as high as Number 3. I don’t think he’s going to gamble on a QB when there are some “can’t miss” defensive linemen available. Nix-Gailey also talk about evaluating how much the draft pick would be an upgrade over the current starter. We know that Gailey thinks Fitz is a serviceable QB. Our defensive line is abysmal. Again, it seems that they would lean toward a defensive pick at #3 because we'd achieve greater upgrade there. I think the Bills will take a QB in this draft, but in the later rounds. And I have a preference. A little-heralded kid named Brady Thomas who didn’t put up amazing numbers but has a lot of upside I think. As a late rounder, he’s low risk. Here’s the scouting report: Positives: Good height to see the field. Very poised and composed. Smart and alert. Can read coverages. Good accuracy and touch. Produces in big spots and in big games. Has some Brian Griese in him and is a gamer. Generally plays within himself. Team leader. Negatives: Poor build. Very skinny and narrow. Ended the season weighing 195 pounds and still looks like a rail at 211. Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength. Can get pushed down more easily than you'd like. Lacks mobility and ability to avoid the rush. Lacks a really strong arm. Can't drive the ball down the field and does not throw a really tight spiral. System-type player who can get exposed if he must ad-lib and do things on his own. Summary: Is not what you're looking for in terms of physical stature, strength, arm strength and mobility, but he has the intangibles and production and showed great Griese-like improvement as a senior. Could make it in the right system but will not be for everyone. The negatives sound a little worrisome but nothing a year in the weight room as a back-up wouldn’t cure. I’ve seen the guy play and would love him in a Bills uniform.

Three out of four simulations have us taking K.J. Wright in the 3rd. Two out of four have us nabbing Mallet in the 2nd. My grandmother's maiden name was McElroy. Wonder if I'm related to the "smart, midround QB" in simulation #2. ????

So you wouldn't want Brady or Manning as our QB? They signed the filing. Just asking.

5.4 is inebriated 3-legged hippo slow. Not only do I wonder about his ability to escape the rush, but how hard he prepared for the combine. If he just jogged three times per week, he'd be faster than 5.4. What kind of work ethic does he have???

I'm sure I couldn't come up with a projected draft as probable as this one. Yet, I can't help but comment that I think it's unlikely that the Bills will wait until the 5th Round to draft a defensive lineman. This is a good year for DEs and there will be good options available in Rds 2-4. Considering the Bills poor run defense and lack of pass rush, I got to imagine they'll take a DE earlier than Rd 5.

Hard to consider Cousineau a draft bust when we traded him and ended up with Kelly. And Terry Miller wasn't a traditional draft bust. We didn't do a poor job evaluating this guy's pro potential. He was a beast in college and looked like he'd become a star in the NFL when he rushed for 1000+ yards at 4.5 ypc his rookie year with the Bills. But as I recall, he then developed some wierd disease and lost his peripheral vision. Still a great athlete, he couldn't see his way around the field and his career was pretty much done.

I'm not sad to see Brohm go. But I do think it's curious we once cut Brown and kept Brohm. Now we cut Brohm and keep Brown. What changed?

I guess better than football. He's 12-0, winning most by KO/TKO - though he's never fought anyone any good. All but one of his opponents have losing records. http://boxrec.com/list_bouts.php?human_id=215380&cat=boxer

As I recall, Larsen did 45 reps at the combine and maybe 50/51 once in college... Then became a boxer after failing with the Bills.

I've never bought the old saw that Defense wins games. Let's make it into a logical argument: Defense wins games. My Offense will overpower your Defense so your defense won't win the game. Therefore Offense wins games. It's best to see a game as three battles: Our O against their D. Our D against their O. Our ST versus their ST. Ideally we need to win all three contests. If we win but two, we probably win the game.

According to STATS Inc's "New York Life Protection Index," the Bills are the 20th best at protecting the QB. This is a new stat so we can't compare our showing to last year but clearly an improvement. http://newyorklife.stats.com/fb/protection.asp?type=overall

If we had a good O Line, Trent would be my choice at QB. He's accurate and plays well when he has time and can get into a rhythm. But we all know our line sucks. Given this, Fitz may indeed be the better option. But he's no savior. Dree Brees would have trouble producing many points behind this line. The only thing that can save this season is the O Line starting to mature and gel.