OldTimer1960

Stop now - don’t you know “it’s a different game now”? Rookies and 2nd year guys must produce or they are busts. Never mind a guy like Jerry Hughes whom the Bills acquired on the cheap afte Indy gave up on him.

I can understand why a team might gamble on Metcalf and he might actually prove them right, but I am looking for a prospect that has both very good size, strength, speed AND very good production. There are probably 25 guys in the NBA with Metcalf’s athletic ability and size, yet I don’t want to draft any of them in the top 10 of the NFL draft.

Quite a spread there. Oliver is the supposed high-upside guy who could wash out due to lack of size Williams is about the opposite - high floor, but lack of size may limit him to a lesser-impact position at OG Hockenson is in the sweet spot for me. in the end, I could see the Bills pick coming down to Williams, Wilkins or Hockenson. Yet, last year’s picks definitely fit the description of prototype physical traits, so that might argue against Williams and Oliver.

But his success came against who - Texas Tech, Southern Illinois, Kent and Louisiana Monroe? He averaged 2 catches per game - admittedly for an ungodly average against Alabama, LSU and Arkansas. Note that Alabama shut him down after his early big play against them.

I’m not in the camp that believe that McCoy is done, but I don’t think he has any real trade value. I’d be shocked if they could get a 3rd for a very highly paid 31 year old RB.

I would argue that we have heard rumbles of thunder in the distance, but lightening hasn’t yet struck with Allen. Again, I am optimistic abut his future, but his success is not certain by any means.

The sample size for that success is very small. He had 26 catches last year and 20 of those 26 came against TTU?, SIU, Kent and ULM. 6 combined against Alabama, LSU and Arkansas. I don’t know who TTU is, but I know Southern Illinois, Kent and Louisiana Monroe are not good competition against and SEC team. Agreed and I remember Richie Lucas.

I don’t disagree. I also was pleasantly surprised at Allen’s performance last year, but by no means believe that he is now a guaranteed success. I am optimistic, but not confident.

I think that is because he hasn’t proven to be great even in college, why would you expect him to suddenly blossom in the NFL? Yes, his physical skills are VERY impressive, but you’d better be able to come up with a very plausible explanation for his lack of collegiate production if you are drafting him in the top 10. i think that he will go much later than many be.

Jonah is the anti-DK. Williams has less-than-ideal physical traits, but has played at a high level against top college competition. I am leery of both. I worry that what held Metcalf back in college will prevent success in the NFLand I worry that Jonah Williams will be over-whelmed in the NFL by superior size and athleticism.

That is true, but he hasn’t really demonstrated in college that he is a good WR that can play at the NFL level. For sure, he has amazing physical traits, but so have countless NFL draft busts. To be clear, I am NOT saying that he WILL be a bust, but he has not produced at a level of even a 2nd round pick, let alone a top 10 pick. I am in the community that wants at least a good solid starter at 9, rather than “swinging for the fences” on a guy with really high traits but could be out of the league in 2-3 years. For the record, I am not a supporter of taking Rashan Gary, either - and he is an equal, maybe even better, example of an athletic freak who doesn’t have production in college to back a high draft selection. Remember C.J. Spiller was a similar super athlete who never panned out in the NFL. What production in college was that based on?

I would not understand why they might take either Metcalf or especially Fant at 9. Neither are good safe picks there, IMHO.

Ugh - I could settle for Williams as a solid, if not spectacular player, but I would be very leery of Metcalf. I could root for Metcalf as he clearly puts in the effort to build his body, but injury history and lack of flexibility worry me greatly.

I think McCoy can still have a couple very good seasons in him, but nobody is trading more than a 3rd for him and you’d be lucky to get that for an aged highly paid RB. I think they’ll be better off keeping him.

I think we are saying the same thing - it might be the case that a good, not great, OL is BPA. In that situation, I might prefer Christian Wilkins at DT because he fits a bigger need than a good OG or maybe OK OT, but Williams is younger than Wilkins and *might* therefore have more upside. I think I prefer a DT over an OG, but both fit the character profile that the Bills are looking for.

I’d hope for better than that, but realistically, getting a good starter is good at 9th overall. At that point, you have to weigh what position he is a good starter at and if that is worth it vs other options. If Williams can be a good, not great, starting LT then by all means he is worth the 9th pick (IMHO). BUT, if he is only a good OG who won’t likely be resigned after his first contract, then look for other options.

I’m with you, but would add that the 9th pick in round 1 is in no way destined (nor really expected) to be a super star. Finding a good starter at a key position is a win - anything better is gravy.

I would not trade that much for any player in this draft.

Question with Jonah Williams is has he already maxed out? He already has top level technique and top notch preparation. Is he already a good NFL OL and, if not, can he improve his strength and overcome his lass-than-ideal size and arm length to be a good NFL OL? I do think that his floor is high - at least a competent starting OG, but I’m not sure that he can be a top 1/3rd of the league OT given his size and strength. Does anyone think that Alabama does not have a top level strength and conditioning program and incredible facilities? I could understand why a team would consider him early, but he isn’t a favorite of mine. Is he John Fina reincarnated? Fina was a good, not great, LT for a long time. They could do worse than that at 9, but I suspect that they could do better as well.

In terms of work ethic, effort and character he is the polar opposite of Nkemdiche.

Some have already provided a lot of good reasons, I’ll add: - undersized guys being projected to be able carry more who couldn’t maintain that weight - Guys who were using steroids in college and thus dominating at that level who couldn’t in the NFL (Tony Mandarich) But beyond that, it is just very very hard to evaluate these players in college due to uneven competition and offensive and defensive schemes that aren’t used as often in the NFL. How do you evaluate the players at Alabama and Clemson who have so much talent around them that they always get 1-1 assignments? Conversely, how do you evaluate guys who play well on bad teams? How do you evaluate a guy like Ed Oliver who had little talent around him and dominated while playing out of position- yet he didn’t play many (any?) games against top level college opponents and is undersized to boot? Will his game translate and allow him to continue to find success in the NFL or will he struggle against much bigger and stronger NFL competition?

If you are referring to Kyle Williams, Williams was considerably heavier coming out of college (299 according to Wiki) than Oliver (really) will play at. Oliver was 281 at his Pro Day and likely won’t be able to maintain that weight through a full season.

I won’t predict that he will be a bust, but man I’m concerned about his lack of size. He will have to win completely with quickness as he is very underweight, has shorter than ideal arms and isn’t quite as tall as you want for the position. Watching his game tape, his quickness and effort are outstanding, but will that be enough to succeed in the NFL? I will certainly understand why they would take him and won’t hate the pick, but I don’t see him as a sure thing.

You missed my point and wasted your rant. Your obnoxious post was unwarranted. My point is that those extra picks are late, don’t have a ton of trade value and are also unlikely to yield many productive players. I’m confident that the team isn’t stressing that there isn’t room for 10 picks to make the roster.

There isn’t much, that was part of what I was getting at. They aren’t flush with “premium draft capital” Same is true about WRs, except that they aren’t as much blockers as TEs are.