BADOLBILZ

Oh I agree with the concept that you ABSOLUTELY want more efficiency per play over bulk mediocrity. I absolutely don't want a Najee Harris eating up touches inefficiently. That's why you split up the job between 3 non-"bell cow" types like Cook, Davis and Johnson. For all Ty Johnson does, including playing ST's and pass blocking efficiently, if Cook is worth $15M on 485 snaps then how is Johnson only worth $2.5M on 429 snaps(over 300 on offense)? Both are remarkably efficient at what they do........but Johnson a bit more, fwiw. It can't be both ways........Cook can't be worth 6x more using your rationale.

Well if you read the brief article I provided which illustrates said data.......then it should be fairly obvious that if you doubt the information you should provide your own.

Tre White isn't under contract to the Ravens. His deal with the Rams was one year and that's over. I could see a situation where he comes back as veteran depth but hopefully that would be after the comp pick formula date passes and the deal were for a very small amount. Of course I was stunned by the ridiculous $10M contract the Rams gave him and he, not surprisingly, played terribly.

Hopefully he can stay on the righteous path with a p#ssy magnet like the Chevy Traverse.

I was thinking more about Tyler Wade. That guy has never seen a breaking pitch bounce at his feet that he could resist swinging at but he can run like nobody's business out of the left handed batters box. There are a lot of Billy Hamilton type guys that this would benefit but few of them swing at 55 foot curveballs like Wade so have more to gain.

Yeah it's not random from my lesser experience either. Once I knew it was sprung I could feel that instability with sudden head movements. That was totally unexpected to me. I'd never felt my brain moving in my skull before that.

Guys drop out of the league from concussions all the time. Andrew Luck and Luke Kuechly were both trending toward first ballot HoF before concussions did them in. Luck had 5 over the course of 3 years. I like my chances of replacing a good zone CB greater than replacing that $60M to $90M in cap space. They found Benford in the 6th round to replace Tre White. You pay scouts to avoid having to risk that kind of money.

Efficiency does not matter more than production. C'mon now, don't be ridiculous. You can't be more efficient than Mike Gillislee in 2016. He literally lead the NFL in yards per carry AND(despite the contradictory nature of the 2 stats) 3rd down conversions of 2 or less in 2016. AND he scored 9 TD's on 110 touches versus Cook's lesser % of 18 on 239. MG also had 5.7 yards per touch that season versus 5.3 for Cook last year. And he and Karlos had been just as efficient the year before. Karlos had 9 TD's on like 104 touches and he averaged 5.6 versus MG's also absurd 5.7 in 2015. 2 years in a row MG did that 5.7. He was ascending too, right? Didn't mean he or Karlos were worth top RB pay. I mean, what do you think Ty Johnson is worth if Cook is worth $15M? Ty Johnson averaged almost 16 yards per catch and 8.4 yards per touch and 5.2 yards per carry. Those numbers are astronomical AND he rushes for 4.6 yards per carry for his career and can actually pass block. And for his career he's almost 6 yards per touch. More than Jim Brown averaged. He's a human highlight reel on his 390 touches. If efficiency means more than production than I guess give him $15M too.

No, it's graphed as age related decline as well. It's proven to be a bad gamble betting on RB's over age 26, regardless of mileage. The wall for some of the best might be 30 but for most the decline is significant at 27. I tend to use mileage more with regard to entering the league. Like I remember telling all the Breece Hall enthusiasts that the dude had already burned a lot of his miles in college. Cook isn't the physical presence that Hall was at his size though. When Cook loses a tick of speed/quickness......that could be catastrophic. He has average contact balance, is not a smart player, is not physical enough to block the blitz effectively if he WERE smart enough to be relied upon.....and he has surprisingly sketchy receiving skills.

Concussions aren't random. It wasn't random that Benford got them in back-to-back games. The first one was the primary cause of the second one. Morse stopped getting them when he changed behavior and became less physical of a blocker. Eric Wood made a similar alteration to his game at center after breaking his leg and tearing his ACL when playing hard instead of smart. He went from a tone setting brawler to a guy who had to play angles and block edges of defenders to survive. That's why he was trash in Marrone's man blocking run game. But back to Benford........once you've rung that concussion bell to the point that Benford has......they become easier to get. Think of it like a sprained brain stem. If you badly sprain a joint it's easy to re-sprain that joint for a long time. Having had a very bad one, I know. And Benford is not a Center playing in closed quarters most of the time.......he is going to have to tackle runners at high speed in the open field and he is going to be the victim of high speed friendly fire at the tackle point. If you recall, the last concussion Morse had was a blitzing LB hitting him at high speed. Not your typical interaction at center. As messed up as Benford was after that second brain injury there is no chance I am extending him. That could quickly turn into a full waste of all guaranteed money.

Age is not on Cooks side. RB's generally peak at age 26.....and this season is Cook's age 26 season.......which he is under contract for. After that there tends to be a sudden decline for most. Which is not directly correlated to usage or "wear and tear". This is why teams typically want to draft a RB and use them up. https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/07/at-what-age-do-running-backs-decline-2021-fantasy-football/ I thought it was particularly telling when the author said these guys are due for decline...........then listed Derrick Henry and then a half dozen guys......who would then subsequently fall off. Henry was very high use compared to most on the list. The odds are AGAINST Cook bucking this trend. If he does? Good for him and the team he is with but that's not a risk I would take when RB's are so easy to replace and my team is perennially cap-strapped.

When it comes to contracts.......production matters. Not efficiency created in part out of planned absence because of that player's limitations. Would you pay a rotational DE anywhere near the same as Myles Garret when that rotational DE has a higher pressure % but half the production of tackles/sacks/TFL/QB hits? Of course not. So why is paying Cook like a star to produce like a very good 2 down RB even a discussion? He's a 1,000 yard back in a league where there are guys pushing 2,000 and earning less than what he wants. And no the TD stat means very little. Raheem Mostert, released today after a terrible season, had as many TD's in 2023(18) as Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley had combined. It's a low volume stat that is too often entirely unreflective of either work done OR dynamicism. Was journeyman Kareem Hunt in 2023 anywhere near as valuable as James Cook when Hunt ran for 9 TD on just 135 carries versus Cook getting just 2 TD on 237 carries? Of course not.

James Cook was 16th in rush yards and 20th in carries and 22nd in touches in 2024. Taylor was expected to be top 3 in rushing every year when he got his deal. No comparison in expectation. Joe Mixon was expected to continue to be a high volume, 300 touch type guy and play 3 downs. He's a career 19+ touch per game player. Cook is a career 12.85 touch per game guy with a far lesser TD per game rate(if you think TD's should factor in) and he has to come off the field on 3rd downs. You are REALLY overplaying Cook's value. Give him another 150 touches like Saquon and then we can talk about paying him like Saquon after we see what happens.

But he had over 1,000 yards and 18 TD on 4.8 yards per carry in 2023...........basically the same year James Cook had last year(statistically at least).........by James Cook logic and the logic of some here on TSW that should have warranted a 4 year extension worth $50M to $60M. Do not pay RB's.

Beane shouldn't extend any of them or the other candidate in Rousseau. They are all just in an awkward position where they either haven't played to their capability yet(Rousseau), have concerning injury issues(Bernard and Benford) or play devalued/easily-replaceable positions(Cook as a RB and Shakir as a slot-only on a team with 2 other starter-invested WR who would be better in the slot and 2 highly invested TE's). There is nothing wrong with waiting on the group of 5 extension candidates. Sometimes that's the play. And not extending ANY of them avoids any resentment or appearance of preferential treatment between teammates. Draft replacements in these next two drafts where they will likely have like 20 picks over the two years.

Just my observation in his very limited amount of usage. I think the red flag went up for me when I saw him get concussed on that collision after the catch at the goal line(near halftime) in the finale against Miami in 2023. Didn't look that bad for a RB collision. I was very surprised that he couldn't return to the field in that close game. Contrast that with the horrible impact Ray Davis took with his concussion this year and he was back and running strong the next week. RB's gotta' be tough as hell to carry the load. But admittedly, Johnson has had so little use in his career it's hard to say definitively whether he is durable or not. If the price is right you extend him either way. In the $2M-$3M range. I don't think it sends a message unless the price is wrong.

Regarding Ray Davis........he and Ty Johnson aren't as good as Cook. But both are plenty good enough to win a SB with, IMO. Johnson might be as talented as Cook but he just can't take the punishment, IMO. You gotta' limit his snaps. Davis could easily get 200 carries next season and be a much better player than Devin Singletary, IMO because he is a really natural receiver. Not too worried about his mileage on his rookie deal. Neither Davis or Johnson are a long term solution.......but what RB is? So even if you retain Johnson I still draft one this spring. One of the reasons that Cook is low mileage is that he isn't a complete RB. He has to come off the field on 3rd downs to avoid Allen getting killed by bad pass pro and to put a better receiving RB on the field. Yeah he's improved but he isn't all-around yet. You don't give an "improving" RB the bag. It's generally wrong to give the finished one's the bag let alone one at Cook's stage. An easy solution is to give Cook more incentives this season. The ability to make an extra $2M-$3M with a great year. You've then doubled his motivation to have a great year. Still might not be enough to get him to camp but drafting another RB would let him know he has no other option.

The problem is that you are automatically presuming that Cook will then keep performing well. That's the mistake everyone makes when extending non-HoF bound RB's. They usually don't perform well at all after they've been paid. Hell Christian McCaffrey has had 2 good seasons in the last 7(and a bunch of terrible ones in between) and then totally fleeced his team TWICE now! It doesn't just have to be for lack of effort.....RB's get injured, it's a high use position....but sometimes it is because of becoming disincentivized too. Just draft another RB in this great RB draft. That puts the pressure on Cook to show up to camp and show out this season rather than giving him leverage. And then let him move on. Care because that's $15M-$30M in guaranteed money they can't spend on things like WR talent.

I love that they are progressing towards automation and getting calls right. Because that's what I personally want to see......results that reflect performance. But baseball will find that a lot of the interest in pro sport is the drama created by human error. Officiating decisions stir debate and perceived wrongs further bond fans to their teams due to the idea of a shared experience(being wronged). Without the drama that human error creates(including close games, upsets etc..) a lot of casuals won't be able to enjoy the game. The NFL knows this which is why, despite occasional claims to the contrary, they don't REALLY mind the perception that their officiating is on par with pro wrestling's. But I also think the strike zone is too big and includes portions which aren't really "hittable" except for the rarest of instances. And the point of the zone is to give the batter good pitches to hit. They give the pitcher AT LEAST 4 chances each at bat to throw the ball out of the zone to get a chase or force weak contact before it's a walk. The zone should be all pitches that a good hitter can square up and put in play competitively. The corners are mostly pop-ups and weak contact. Pop ups to 3B/C or feeble grounders to 2B are no more interesting that whiffs.

There is no need to focus on it but what it serves as is a reminder about what is important. Which is to keep Josh Allen happy while he is a superstar QB. So, for instance, the notion that some fans have that Beane should just throw all his assets at the defense and let Allen figure it out offensively doesn't hold up if you acknowledge that he has logical options elsewhere. Or for that matter, the idea that Allen "picked" Keon Coleman and therefore he can't complain if he doesn't pan out. That's not how it works. They have to keep championship quality talent around him. Then *maybe* he becomes that rare QB who retires with his original franchise. But it's more likely that he maneuvers his way home to finish his career OR he starts to fail and the Bills replace him.

Explaining his idea about stealing first base is the author of the articles intention. Excerpt: If a ball gets away from the catcher in any count, the hitter can take off and try to take first base. For the offense, it would create some strategy and add importance to having some speed at your disposal. For pitchers, they can't just spike balls in the dirt at will without consequences and the rule would force guys to throw more strikes. More pitches in the strike zone and less completely non-competitive pitches means more opportunities for tests of skill between hitters and pitchers and will no longer allow teams to field a statue behind the plate.

Who would have thought Tom Brady would ever leave New England after 6 SB wins? Most great QB's end up finishing their careers elsewhere. Just so happens there are 3 NFL teams in his home state and they all have high profile HC's etc.. His wife-to-be lives and works in LA. They may decide they want to start raising a family. Be naive to the possibility if you wish.

Cook is probably heading for a contract holdout(unless the Bills draft a RB early and put the pressure on him to show up and show out or just not get paid because the Bills wouldn't stand to lose anything with a Treveyon Henderson type stepping in at RB). And the Raiders already passed on paying their own higher producing RB Josh Jacobs in FA so they likely wouldn't value Cook as more than a day 3 pick in trade even if they wanted to pay him. Von Miller is untradeable. You'd have to throw in a day 2 pick just to get someone to pick up his contract. Like the Brock Osweiler to Cleveland trade Houston made to save money in exchange for picks years ago. So you are basically trying to trade less than nothing for Maxx Crosby when the asking price would be about the same as Myles Garrett........around the equivalent of 2 first round picks.

Yeah it hasn't been talked about at all(that I've seen) but I envision Grable getting a shot at guard this summer because it is a waste to have his rare athleticism in just a reserve role. He might have to put on some pounds and he does have to prove he can stay healthy.

9 bad contracts out of 10. And his brother Dalvin's game fell off dramatically after he got paid too. There are varying degrees of want-to that RB's seem to lose after they get paid. And that can be the difference between being great and being a league minimum journeyman. Guys like Saquon and Henry have legacy on their mind. They are thinking HoF as their motivation. Cook is most likely just looking to follow in his bro's steps and get that bag. Keep replacing them. It's a great RB draft, add another and prepare to move on. In fact, don't extend ANY of the 5 pending FA's early. Avoid the perception of favoritism and use those 10-11 pick drafts that they have the next couple of seasons to address replacing "good" players and try to find a couple "great" one's. Cook ain't great. He is a very nice 2 down RB with some sketchy off field concerns.