BADOLBILZ

I hope Beane doesn't get caught up in the moment and play hole-patcher. The draft is an ongoing process of team building.........if you have a QB it shouldn't matter THAT much what your immediate needs are.........the focus should be longer term. Rousseau is not without risk, but he's a physical specimen, has had big time production and isn't full of injury red flags. Same with Liam Eichenberg and Terrace Marshall. I don't think any of these guys are even compromises over the shiny but unproductive or high injury risk types that are going to be flying off the board earlier than normal in a mediocre draft class.

I think you gotta' give Najee even more carries to get the value out of him. Then you gotta' figure out how to do that and keep him fresh for 17 regular season and 3-4 playoff games. Drafting a RB that early is like paying a baseball closer $25M-$35M like an ace........it makes no sense........you need a bunch of them to get thru most games and you don't want to have to change everything you do when you end up with your practice squad RB on the field. Depth.......not a guy who needs 250 touches( which is just 14-15 per game over 17) to justify his selection.

The difference between a great producing RB and a below average one is less than yard. I know you are exaggerating for effect but it brings up a good point....... there isn't much difference between the per snap production of average and great RB play. For comparison purposes......Julio Jones can catch 100 passes and produce 400-500 yards more than Jarvis Landry in his 100 grabs. And those receivers are both GOOD. At RB the spread on the same 100 touches(rushing or receiving) between a stud RB and a mediocre one is just 50-150 yards.

The conclusion you are drawing is the opposite of what the data on those RB's is telling you. And the "5 great years" thing might be the biggest fallacy of all the things people use to justify drafting a RB. Nobody on that list has given their team 5 great years. Not even one. Now add a 17th game to their seasons? Never been more unwise to draft a RB in round 1. Oweh is intriguing. I am more of a Rousseau fan. My 3 top targets at #30 are Eichenberg, Marshall and Rousseau. Eich helps protect Allen and buy him time which makes all of the playmakers more effective.....including the RB's. Marshall can play all 3 spots and be a seam stretcher or a guy who stretches the field from outside the numbers and also a big body to help them in the redzone. Rousseau has rare size and length and tackling ability and that leads to production behind the LOS. The common thread is that they were all huge producers at key positions when they were on the field and aren't all full of injury flags. I'd also be fine with the right CB but I don't expect Newsome or a Bills medical approved Farley to be there and would be happy with Adebo or Campbell later.

Are you using THAT list to SUPPORT the notion that Etienne having a ton of mileage (820 touches counting KOR's) isn't significant? That's actually a pretty damning list against taking such a high mileage running back.

5 wide is a a punchless, dink-and-dunk alignment. The minute the backfield empties, the defensive responsibilities get simplified and the defensive line can just attack the QB......necessitating a quick pass......and thereby all but eliminating the chance of a big play. Despite decades of seeing this, some fans still think that going 5 wide is opening things up. It's just a chain mover. You don't need to draft someone in the first round to get a favorable matchup on routes that are only going to go 5-8 yards. Etienne's value as a receiver is coming out of the backfield on screens and wheel routes. Again, 2-3 of those per game is about all of those you want to run when you have a QB who can stretch the field like Allen.

I will disagree a little bit that it's that much different training to throw than it is to shoot a basketball. Todays best shooters in basketball train to make shots in many different ways, off-balance/platform and from ranges like never before. The best QB's make a lot of their throws with very repetitive mechanics like a traditional jump shooter. I've seen video of Joe Montana making certain throws right along side Tom Brady making the throw and it's near identical.....you could almost super-impose them over top of each other. Practice/repetition can absolutely improve accuracy and hopefully Allen is working on his touch and timing on deep throws and takes his deep ball to that next level this year.

The key point is the Chiefs offense didn't get better. They gave CEH the ball quite a bit and their yards per play as an offense and scoring rank both dropped. Then they get behind in the SB and there is no point for him to be on the field anymore. It's a downfield passing league. Perceived stud RB's rarely actually make offenses better despite people that think they are going to "take them to another level". Bills fans think Etienne or Harris are going to make the Bills offense much better despite the evidence being OVERWHELMING that this will not be the case. I'm with you on the investment they've put into the defense. At a point it's diminishing returns. They can still gain from an edge rusher or a stud CB but they probably have to accept that they gotta' get by with less on D and make it work because you can't let the offense take a step back.

I am talking about starting from scratch. So for this example, let's say 2022, 2023 and 2024's #1's plus McCaffery just to get a second pick in the 7-9 range in this draft. Even THAT might be light because a QB may still be bobbing around. Compounding the problem is that first round RB's have bigger salaries to start with and once you extend them, like McCaffrey, they are even colder trade bait. But yes, Carolina picked a RB at #8 and are not surprisingly picking at #8 again soon after. No needles moved.

The rules changes reducing violence in the passing game in 2010 really changed the value of CB's immensely. Prior to that the Bills had spent about half of their all time #1 picks on RB's and DB's in a league where winning was all about QB and line play. You and I both hated the constant DB picks.........they really crippled the franchise. But after 2010 the CB's became more important and around then the quality of players playing the position increased as well. Now a top CB is incredibly valuable. By some metrics, as @dave mcbride has pointed out, pass coverage has become more important than pass rush. The Bills made a good pick in Gilmore but it was probably done using outdated reasoning and they just got lucky. But of course the better pick would have been the QB Wilson. If you think a QB is going to be your QB1 there is NO REASON not to take him in round 1. If Buddy actually believed in Wilson like he said he did then he was an idiot for passing in either of the rounds. But we kinda' know that now.

What Gilmore is not is a character guy. And that is really the big difference between the Gilmore pick and the White pick. Gilmore is more talented but he isn't a good fit for a messed up room. The Bills had a culture problem and they kept drafting guys that needed direction, non-leaders or bad leaders, onto a rudderless ship and wondering why it wasn't working. It reached critical mass with drafting Sammy Watkins and not having ANY veteran of note in the room to mentor him.

I was a big fan of CEH, I thought he was the best RB in the draft but I wouldn't have touched him before round 3. And as it worked out, I think EVERY player except Swift that was taken between that CEH pick and Claypool has as much or more trade value than Clyde now. Even the other RB Taylor. And like I said, CEH wasn't horrible he produced like Singletary but with more touches in a backfield without another early round pick like the Bills had with Moss. Good production isn't worth much in trade at RB........pedestrian production like Motor and CEH is worth very little at all.

Agree.......I was just pointing out that Yolo was using a lazy observation to not mock a RB to the Jets while mocking one to the Bills. The Jets probably see themselves as pretty decently stocked at the premier positions outside of CB. They need bodies at a lot of easier to fill positions but when the Bills were desperate for OL help Beane didn't expend any first rounders on the O line and I'm sure it's perceived that it's worked out well by other teams. The one that Beane did draft early is approaching bust status at this point. Personally, I think the Bills best long-term use of their first round pick IS to get a LT who can excel at guard for the time being. It's a strong position in this draft. You are right, it all starts there. O Line play IS an actual force multiplier. The thing is, you gotta' also be able to win at the edge and island positions........and those are VERY expensive.......and the Bills are sound at most of them but not great. Diggs is a true elite WR#1, White is great in zone but an average man coverage guy without top speed, Dawkins is a solid middle of the league LT. They got nothin' at pass rusher. So they have plenty of room to improve their juice content at the edges even in the short term.

The Jets will think they have their QB/PassRush/LT/WR1 covered........basically they may just see themselves short a CB1 and the Bills are short a #1 pass rusher in terms of the "big money" positions...........if they pass on a CB everything else is product you hope to acquire on day 2 or 3 either way so wouldn't discount them taking a RB just because they need a guard, LB or TE. Those are all bad positions to be selecting in round 1.

Yeah but regardless of production.......and Singletary has produced 4.8 ypc on over 300 carries.........they all depreciate immensely once you draft them. The Chiefs would be lucky to get a 4th rounder for CEH this year........he's lost most of his value. And next year, even if he plays better, it would be less value still. RB's are terrible investments. The Panthers would probably have to trade their next 3 first round picks along with McCaffrey to move back up into a draft to the spot they picked McCaffrey.

Justyn Ross was a GREAT prospect. Serious injuries really took him out. Hopefully he can return to playing.

Gilmore is great and was damn good at the end with the Bills and should have been tagged by McD............but for most of his time with the Bills he had a tendency to not finish plays. He would blanket a receiver for a couple seconds and then assume the play was over and check out. So occasionally he would give up a surprise big play out of nowhere. I think he had a stretch once where the last 3 TD passes he'd given up were all to rookie WR's which really illustrated his tendency to dial it down when he didn't feel threatened. His focus wasn't elite and part of that was probably the losing culture in Buffalo. I don't think Gilmore is an optimist either which is why a proven winner was a great fit for him personally. He tightened up his game in NE but I know BB wasn't as pleased last season. Without Brady and the promise of contention he probably needs another change of scenery.

He definitely should have come out last season if the objective was to maximize his pro production.........but it was a strong RB class and there was a legit chance he might have been the 3rd or 4th RB in that class despite 2019 being his best season. If someone takes him in round 1 it likely panned out financially.....but in terms of NFL production, he left one of his prime years in college.

As noted.......he wasn't a late first round pick.........he was literally middle of the first. That matters because the perception in most drafts is that the "first round grades" end once you get 20 picks in. And you are talking up forced fumbles as a stat on Edmunds when he hasn't had one in the last 42 games? Seriously? Yeah he may have about the same amount of tackles as Roquan Smith but Roquan had 18 TFL's last year........Edmunds has 19 for his career. Edmunds instincts have been disappointing but that could be overlooked if he made plays........what's damning is that he doesn't make the kind of plays that change games.......turn the ball over, or collect TFL's/sacks........he's not a game changing player he is top 10-15 MLB in a league where the overwhelming amount of the league's best MLB's are in the opposite conference.

That kinda' move would require a growth mindset.

The sad thing is........Tremaine Edmunds has about the same wingspan as Campbell and Rousseau but with legit 4.5 speed........aaaaand he's laboring to make any impactful plays at MLB and got spun around like a top in coverage last year. I think sometimes people forget why he was seen by some as the best pass rushing prospect in his draft.

Yeah as I believe @GunnerBill pointed out earlier this offseason when you watch his tape you see a lot of Leonard Floyd in him in his pass rush off the edge. But I think his ceiling is higher though because he's a physically much bigger, stronger player and his one season at Miami was almost as productive as Floyd's 3 at Georgia. Floyd never produced so it's not a surprise he's never put up huge numbers. To me the thing he has that Floyd and Calais Campbell don't have are those 11" hands for tackling. They make his wingspan a bit more functional so I think he has a chance snare a lot of unassisted/shoestring tackles and pile up TFL's and more sacks than you'd expect from someone who isn't pretty technique-wise.

Yeah you guys really did some damage when I was on the wagon.

If the Bills actually want an explosive RB offer San Francisco a 5th for Mostert. $3M cap hit in his walk year. They might even take it. The Shanahan camp always leads the league in runnin' back arrogance and I guess since his dad is grandfathered in he still has a coupon for a dozen of them for a dime.