starrymessenger

Everything happens so much faster.

I don't know how many Superbowls he's going to win (if any). Some great QBs never did, as we all know. Nothing is guaranteed, but what I feel comfortable saying is that there is a palpable possibility that the Bills may have landed nothing less than a generational talent at the all important position. The only other rook I have felt that way about is Andrew Luck.

That's a play/throw that makes me uneasy because I don't see it translating well at all at the NFL level. He should throw it away rather than risk the turnover. But I will say this. He was under similar pressure a lot at WYO and I have seen him make the exact same play/throw in his college game tape, at least once for a TD and another time for a sizeable gain. So it's not a fluke. I find it incredible that he can manage the outcome on a throw like that enuf to make it a risk worth taking but hey maybe he can. His arm talent is simply amazing, we all know. If his field vision and ball placement can be so good as to permit that kind of throw to result in completions then his talent goes way beyond simple arm strength (whether he should be making that throw or not). In other words it strongly suggests that he is not just another Kyle Boller.

Peterman had a good, even maybe very good, showing against the Panthers. But it wasn't perfect. He's generally accurate and can throw with anticipation, but he wasn't pinpoint accurate. His first throw, the slant to Cadet, was behind the receiver. It resulted in a PI call and a first down but a pass like that can easily be picked off by a good slot corner. The pick on the throw to Ivory was also slightly behind the receiver. Sure Ivory should still have made the play but it's worth mentioning that both the Cadet and Ivory throws were on slants left to right, the only ones of that kind attempted, and both were slightly off target (the Cadet throw more than the one to Ivory). Peterman's best throw was the TD pass to Streater. It was so perfectly placed that without the push off the receiver would have been in great position to beat the corner. Thing to note about that pass is that it was 40 yards in the air and Peterman did not throw his arm out making it. In other words you could probably add another 10 yards or so if you were looking to fix Peterman's long ball range. A well placed 50 yard pass is pretty good, and certainly good enuf to say that Peterman can probably throw a good deep ball. Where I think we may like to see more zip on his throws is in the intermediate range, underneath patterns, outs and curls. He has to keep DBs from comfortably sitting on his throws with the certain knowledge that the play will remain in front of them with plenty of time to pick or immediately wrap up the receiver. If he can do those things even moderately well, and keep his composure in the pocket, he probably has a future in this league. If he continues to show well in preseason I would not be surprised if the Bills looked to move AJM. It would certainly be a refreshing change to have a talented starter (Allen) backup up by a capable backup both on rookie deals.

To me whether or not the Bills have a shot at fielding a decent and reasonably productive WR corps in 2018 depends much more on the condition of Kelvin Benjamin's knees than than on any other factor, more even than on who is taking snaps under centre. If he stays healthy in this his contract year he will not only have a 1000+ yard season but will open the door of opportunity for the other guys who make the roster. Important also not to lose sight of the impact of what looks to be a major upgrade at OC. If KB is good to go we could well see a significant improvement not only in the passing game but in the O overall.

Osweiler, Lynch...some GMs are just suckers for big bodies I guess. Lynch simply does not look to have a future in this league. Gives absolutely zero indication that he belongs on an NFL playing field. I don't know whether and how he will develop but Chad Kelly for sure has a chance. I knew about the injury and his being a head case and all but I had a hard time understanding why he was not drafted much earlier. I saw a fair number of his college games and it always seemed to me that the talent was definitely there. He may turn into a real steal for the Broncos. He will have to after the Lynch fiasco. There are a number of late round or undrafted youngsters who are looking pretty good so far this preseason - Fales, Kelly, Slotter, that kid who came in after Cam for Carolina.

I do think there is a meaningful distinction to be drawn between inaccuracy and inconsistency. Allen can be deadly accurate. He will make throws that only the greatest QBs playing the game today can make. And it's not an accident. He actually does it quite a lot. Inaccurate QBs simply "cannot do what [Allen] do" in the words of Chad Johnson. He just needs to learn to do it more often and the Bills have pushed a lot of chips on the square that says he can. I like the bet they made. I like it a lot.

The risk starting a young QB too early is irreparable damage to his confidence. It's a psychological thing. I'm starting to doubt that Allen is even capable of losing his confidence. His every action seems to show total self assurance. Combine that with talent that's just crazy and you could be looking at a prodigy. And that voodoo chemistry can be infectious - raise a lot of guys levels of play. If it looks like he can handle it (while understanding that he is going to make some mistakes) and if he outperforms the other guys through what's left of the preseason practices and games, then IMO he should get the start when the bullets start flying for real.

Excellent breakdown. Thanks for posting. Allen's talent is flat out ridiculous. I had projected him as potentially in the Elway mould, and I'm still comfortable with that comparison, but man the Favre likeness is compelling. No QB ever had as much insane confidence in his arm as Brett Favre - unless it's maybe Josh Allen. Ungodly testosterone. If as advertised he's also a really quick study, they should probably start him sooner rather than later. I'd try to accelerate his second and first team reps and live action and see how he does. If he handles it well I would turn him loose. This kid has the potential to be a dominant player at the all important position.

Allen's play on Thursday night was exactly identical to his WYO game tape, some eye-popping, some head scratching, some deadly accurate, some inaccurate. He prolly felt right at home behind that porous O-line.

Either he has a volcano in his belly or its his contract year. Its his contract year. He should be fun to watch this year. Hope he stays healthy.

66% is pretty darn good. Couple hundred a game - meh, sort of Joe Montanaish. He also had his share of 300 yard games. Chad was narrowly beaten out by Peyton as league MVP one year. Twice comeback player of the year. Played a long time in the league. If NP can morph into Chad I'll be deliriously happy. Turning a fifth round pick into the equivalent of 18th overall. Sure if Allen can develop into Elway, he's the starter and with Nate/Chad backing him up the Bills would prolly have the best tandem under centre league wide. The rap against Nate is arm strength. I defer to more knowledgeable posters on this but I'm not sure arm strength alone will be the reason he fails to make it in the NFL. Maybe a stupid question but is his arm that much weaker than Drew Brees? Or Joe Montana? For almost all QBs, including the great one, so much depends on scheme and offensive philosophy.

If he's Chad Pennington (the pre-injury Chad) the Bills have struck gold. Who wouldn't want CP as a long term backup. People don't seem to realize that CP was a good starting calibre QB. I'd say Nate has a lot to prove before he is worthy of that comparison. Assuming he wins the job I think we find out very soon whether he can play at this level or not. Ravens are a tough D with good young corners and tough veteran safeties.

Agreed. TO and JR dropped some balls. They all do. But needless to say those guys also knew to play the position at a high level. So far the rap sheet says Corey Coleman does not have the necessary skills/awareness to de successful. Hope he can turn it around Still an excellent move on spec by Beane. The raw talent and athleticism are there. NFL calibre specific receiver skillset has yet to make its appearance.

Yeah. Sorta like Mike Williams and Corey Davis in 2018. And I'd love to have either of those guys. Most young wideouts take a few years at least to acclimate, unless they are in a scheme that favours them and have a proven veteran passer throwing them the ball. And even then. A scheme thing. He was used as a possession receiver to be sure - but was that the best use of his skillset?

Except he was thought to be the best WR prospect in his class by many, not just Cleveland. And there is nothing unusual about a highly touted (and drafted) WR completely underwhelming his first couple of years in the league. There are so many examples, some close to home as well. And it can be for all sorts of reasons. Some eventually come around and realize their potential. Hopefully Coleman (and Zay) will wind up in that grouping. Great trade by Beane. Got something (raw talent and athleticism) for nothing.

Agreed. Turns out motivation, or more the lack thereof, has long been a problem. I remember Chan complaining bitterly about how his coaches always had to be on him. And that was before he cashed in (and checked out). Now that he's rolling in money there is nothing left to motivate him. Always disappointing to see a player with that much talent laze out but it happens. You aren't going to be good in this league unless you really want to be, no matter how gifted you are.

The more talented their WR corps the more frustrated they will be with Tyrod. It may not be the plan but the #1 pick will be starting by mid-season with Tyrod backing up IMO.

Yeah what you say about the teams in front of Brady and Ben back then is true. I had forgotten to consider that. OTOH haven't all the recent first round QBs started at least one or more games their rookie year? I'd be surprised if Allen didn't start a few games.

Unless one of the other guys surprises and starts tearing it up I think he probably gets to start this year. How many games idk. I'd be fine with it as long as they have a plan for him to play within himself and don't ask him to do too much. That's how the Pats managed Brady and the Steelers Big Ben when they were rooks. If our new OC can design an offence that plays to his strengths, ala Watson in Houston last year, so much the better.

Right now I wouldn't bet on him making the deep out (certainly not to the opposite hash). I agree the shallow/intermediate out (as in Jax) is a throw he needs to make. I think maybe he can get there since I feel the lack of velocity on that particular throw was more poor mechanics than anything else. As for having to make all the throws, I'm not sure I agree. He needs to make the higher percentage throws with regularity and he needs to be able to credibly challenge a secondary on occasion. There have been some good QBs with something less than ideal arm strength and hence with something less than the complete repertoire of throws at their disposal.

In terms of first round QB success rates recent experience is actually pretty positive. Marriotta and JW are good enuf to build around and move forward with. Goff, Wentz, Watson, look good. Mahomes and Trubisky look to me to have real promise. At least they are certainly not looking like busts (yet). Only Paxton Lynch has to date actually failed to meet expectations. JMO I would not be at all surprised if all of this year's first rounders develop into starter quality NFL QBs, and two or three into franchise guys. Im really excited about Josh Allen. His physical skillset is absolutely phenomenal and in a class by itself. He's a bright guy with a great attitude/maturity. That certainly counts for a lot. I just hope the Bills know how to bring him along properly. Jeff Fisher's old ways of doing things with no sensitivity to Goffs strengths/weaknesses almost torpedoed the kid's career (which now looks quite bright).

Agree. I do think that a NFL strength and conditioning program should benefit a guy like Peterman although given the position any increase in core strength cannot come at the expense of flexibility. But I also think that proper mechanics are more likely to influence velocity (and accuracy). And based on what little I've seen of him Peterman's mechanics could do with some work for sure. The (post) season ending pick in Jax was a good example. Fully front facing the target and pushing off his front foot. C'mon man. I suspect that with work Peterman can get to where a lack of arm strength will not be the reason he fails if indeed he does fail. Maybe it just means that he should avoid attempting the sorts of throws that can require raw arm strength independently of ideal mechanics, like the out to Thompson. To me that's a tough assignment to execute with perfect lower body positioning/mechanics. If the technique is slightly off, as I think it often is, then you are a lot better off if you are Josh Allen than if you are NP. On the other hand, it's not like Peterman was lining up under centre. He was in the gun, and so I do understand why that throw raises legitimate concerns regarding arm strength. We will all see soon enuf whether he has been able to improve.

Beane swings for the fences: Allen, Edmunds. So be it, what's done is done. I didn't agree with his decision. I discount Allen's purported upside advantage because I think Rosen will be very good, and quite possibly very, very good. In fact I think Rosen is more likely to be very, very good than Allen. There is no doubting Allen's upside but my impression is that a reflex reaction has been to unthinkingly assume that Rosen, being good already, can't get any better. My view is that he stands an excellent chance of building on his remarkable skillset as a pro. So I guess I can confess to being a fan of his. I suspect Rosen's personality was a factor weighing against him in the hallowed halls of the conservative GM club. There is some sense to this and it's a relevant issue to be sure. However, JMO but I believe the preponderance of evidence suggests strongly an AR personality type rather than a Jeff George/Cutler personality type. The kind of guy who can make you regret passing on him. Having said all that, I also believe that, as advertised, this was an exceptional QB class with five guys fully justifying a first round grade. Since we picked a first round worthy QB in the first round I have no problem deferring to the guy who makes these decisions for a living. All things considered Allen too is in my view an outstanding prospect and I have no problem getting fully behind him.

A few years away assuming things stay on track and go the way we want them to. Nothing is guaranteed. Great as he is Julio Jones isn't making this team a contender in 2018. Blowing your brains out today to land him is more likely to set you back than move you closer to the day you might otherwise be in a position to compete. Having said that of course you do everything you can to win every game.