section122

That is why I wanted to dig in on it lol. It would seem to also reward poor teams QBs as well as poor scoring teams. The point however seems to be that although the Bills offense as a whole was effective Tyrod wasn't. Not sure that is the best way to say it but I think that is what he was driving at. For me personally it is really hard to remove the QB from the equation when discussing a successful offense or say that the QB didn't pplay a large part in it.

Not anymore ludicrous than any other supposition on the matter. It really makes perfect sense and could very well be how it went down.

I don't have time to dig in now but thanks for the explanation. It does appear that it would skew negatively towards strong running teams but I do see the point your trying to make.

Some excellent perspective. In a league where Ryan Fitzpatrick was signed at the start of last year as the guy the Jets needed people shouldn't dismiss the 20th best QB in the league as easily imo. There used to be a poster here named Edwards Arm and he always stated the best predicator of success was YPA and the stats generally backed him up. It always stuck in my brain. Mine is... If we had a QB we drafted and after 2 years he had gone for 47 tds and 12 ints we would all be very excited for next season to see what he could become.

Could you elaborate on the bolded? Just on a cursory look for me: TT finished with 23 TDs combined in 2016 which was more than Russel Wilson (22), Flacco (22), Bradford (20), Tannehil (20), Wentz(18), and Dalton (22) among others. I would like to look at it if you can find it as I may be misunderstanding your point.

Very fair. I am excited to see what TT can do this year. This is his last chance imo. 3 years of starting and we should know whether he can be the guy or not. I like the Dennison hire as someone who has worked with him in the past and am glad that the Bills helped TT through the draft with a WR and OL taken. I too would like to see the growth you describe. I'm nervous about the end result of this season (final record) as I see a defense with a few major holes in it. I do feel confident that the Bills are set up to move on quickly if TT flames out this year with the 2 firsts next year so within a year the Bills should either have an answer at QB or a highly rated prospect going into next season.

My evaluation has TT at about the 20th best QB in the league. I'm not trying to paint him as anything other than that. What is tiring is hearing about how terrible he is when the facts don't really back that up. He is a mid-tier starter by pretty much every objective measure. Wentz was indeed a rookie and Tyrod was in his second year starting. TT vastly outperformed him in pretty much all categories which I have gone over in many other threads. Wentz may end up being a franchise QB and much better than TT. He isn't there yet though. I was simply responding to someone asking by what measure the Bills D was considered bottom 10. I provided both raw data and advanced stats. Some people like one or the other so depending on which your choice is I gave both. It doesn't have anything to do with which I prefer. However, I like a combo of both thinking that both are flawed. DVOA is subjective but compares all teams evenly with that subjective measure. Raw data can be good but one amazing game one way or another can skew numbers (think Offense against 49ers and Defense against Pats* game 1). So I like to look at all of it and make up my own mind. The Bills defense wasn't good last year just like the passing game wasn't good. I put the defensive performance on Rex and the defensive staff and then scheme. I put the passing game on lack of WRs, scheme, TT in that order. He certainly is to blame for some of the shortcomings but the talent at WR was embarassing and Roman is known for poor passing attacks. TT needs to improve his consistency game to game, play to play, and his field vision imo. Consistency is the most important thing though for me. Seattle and Miami 2 show he CAN be a great QB but he has to do it more often to be thought of as more than a stop gap. I don't think he is done developing yet as I think learning happens on the field. This year though is it. After 3 years we should have our answer. See above. Even the most ardent of us realize he has shortcomings. What we don't think is he isn't a starter in this league. I have said time and again the biggest difference between pro and anti TT is simple. Anti-TT think he is done developing and we are seeing the finished product. Pro-TT think he might continue to develop. It really boils down to that.

Why DVOA because it is a great comparative statistic. DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. If you had clicked around on the link you would see how it is calculated. Here is the explanation of it though and an excerpt of why I like it: Doing a better job of distributing credit for scoring points and winning games is the goal of DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. DVOA breaks down every single play of the NFL season, assigning each play a value based on both total yards and yards towards a first down. Raw number can paint a picture but they are generally incomplete and discount other factors. The Bills appeared to have a decent pass defense but in reality the run defense was so bad teams didn't have to pass to move the ball. As to the rest of your post. A question was asked and raw numbers AND advanced stats were used and you dismissed both. What were you looking for exactly? YPG for run defense is the same as raw numbers. I didn't dismiss a game simply pointed out that if you removed an extreme outlier in regards to performance it looked worse than the 16th it ended at. Unless you think the Gronk and Brady-less Pats* are as good as the team with them. Perhaps if they played the Bills might not have shut them out? Do you really want to defend the defensive performance last year? Wouldn't Rex still be here if the defense was effective? I am not surprised that using numbers and stats doesn't bring anything to the discussion for you. Bills D - 23.6 given up good for 16th in the league Bills O - 24.9 scored good for 10th in the league So although the numbers are close numerically they are a bit different value wise. imo giving up 0 to the Pats is more of an outlier than the 41. The Bills gave up 0 once and the next closest amount was 13. The Pats* scored 41 and the 37 to the Jets, 31 to Seattle, 28 to Miami, 38 to Oakland, 34 to Miami, and 30 to the Jets. That is 6 results within the 13 point deviation.

Oops I just saw them at 26 and ran with it. It is an interesting tool and I want to use it in conjuction with other stats to debunk some myths (a generalization not directed at you Kirby as we are fairly close in our opinions on this mattter). Miami did NOT have a worse defense. They finished at 20 and their DC was given a HC job. The Bills fired their HC responsible for their finish as well as his brother. Only 2 teams finished with a worse defense and qualified for the playoffs. Detroit and Atlanta. Nobody has once made the argument that TT is better than either of those qbs. Speaking of Tyrod... (that is a link to click lol) Look at these interesting advanced statistics. We all agree that he regressed from 2015 to 2016 there are some interesting names he outperformed. Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Blake Bortles, Ryan Tannehil, Cam Newton, Carson Wentz, and Joe Flacco among others. Ask yourself if you watched these other guys play enough to qualify them against TT. Then add in the emotional component of 7-9 and it needing to be someone's fault. This is where the narrative that TT is terrible. Tell me about your eye test and I'll tell you to apply it to the rest of those guys and report back.

They finished 26th in DVOA which is an entire snapshot of the defensive performance and a great indicator of true success. They had the 29th ranked run defense by yards If you take out the game against the Brissett led Patriots their ppg moves to bottom 10 They gave up more than 24 points in 9 of 16 games Are we really going to pretend that the Rex and Rob Ryan defense wasn't bad? It led to their firing even. I am surprised it is debatable and I would imagine if I went through a lot of the anti-TT group they would bemoan the defensive performance during the season. I was going to respond to crusher but then I remembered not to feed the trolls...

I don't disagree with that and I'm not even sold that Watson and Mahomes won't be good qbs in the league. A neutered Whaley may have liked a guy but whoever (likely McDermott) made the final decision that he didnt. I just don't think it is fair to say the Bills ignored the qb position simply because they didn't take a top guy. They did evaluate all of them and chose to set themselves up to get one next year. They also grabbed a developmental guy for the 2nd straight year. The only reason I mentioned Jeff is due to his constant concern that having McDermott running the show would lead to only short term decision making. This situations an example of long term strategy.

This is what everyone who is bemoaning the Bills not making a move for a qb this year needs to remember. The Bills met with all of the top prospects. Although you may feel one of these guys will be a franchise guy the Bills clearly didn't think mahomes or watson would be. Therefore they set themselves up to be in a better position for qb next year which by many accounts may have better prospects. They are addressing the qb position but they chose to pick one of the guys from next year's class instead of this one. jeffismagic you always talk about long term planning and here is an example of the Bills doing exactly that. You can't complain that "wrestler sean" will only think short sighted and then complain when he thinks strategically for the long term.

Yeah I was still surprised by the result though. BEst series of the 2nd round is Houston - San Antonio imo. I'm really excited to watch even if I think the Spurs will win in the end. GS, Cle, and Boston are all locks in my mind. The only series that offers me intrigue is the all Texas matchup

that wheelchair was some bs. however knowing that it was because he pooped his pants makes it a little better. Hate Pierce for that melodrama. Hate the clippers for "basketball reasons." I'm happy the jazz took them out!

Imagine if other teams came here to see our reaction and judged the lot of us on one or 2 posters. we have our fair share of idiots too.

Me too it certainly appears that they are looking to 2018 for QB

Just shake it off

For sure but the plan is to have him sit and by all accounts he is raw and needs to sit for a bit. Not saying it couldn't happen I'm just saying without the benefit of hindsight this is how I see it now and why I like the deal so much. For me it is the coaching though. Reid gets a lot of credit for Favre who is one of the comps you hear regularly for Mahomes. It is part of why I can see them liking him so much and also why I feel it is such a good landing spot for him.

Yeah hindsight may change the makeup of this deal for sure. I really like this landing spot for Mahomes. This is one of those situations much like Dak last year that a guy landed in an excellent spot. Even if he excels in KC it is no guarantee he would here or elsewhere. Something I thought of last night. The Chiefs gave up their 1st for a guy they won't be playing this year. They also gave up a 3rd this year and their 1st next year. That is 2 premium picks this year they won't have to improve their team and next year (2018) may be when Mahomes takes over. If the Bills grab their guy next year they are in a very similar situation to KC with a young guy ready to start and extra picks to boot. I don't know if I explained that well enough but basically Mahomes doesn't benefit KC this year but hopefully (for them) he does in 2018 the Bills will have 2 1sts in 2018 to get a qb that can do the same. KC could see a regression next year as they won't be adding a 1st or 3rd round talent to contribute this year so that 1st next year might not be as late as we expect. The last 4 years prior they were 18,23,1, and 11.

Again you are off the mark. Keep trying though this is very amusing.

Man you just missed the point entirely...

You can bash Whaley for a lot of things; poor public speaking for one, questionable use of draft capital, etc... This idea that he is responsible for 20 years of 2 qbs in the first round is asinine. He has made trades for Qbs, spent draft picks on QBs, signed FA QBs. He hasn't sat around doing nothing like you want to pretend. You have created this false narrative already with "wrestler Sean" and that if he doesn't take a qb this year he's done. You have decided because you "talked to a couple of guys" that Mahomes is sure fire can't miss. The Bills have clearly done their diligence with this class. If they take a guy it is because they think he can be the guy and I will be happy and hope he is. If they don't it's because they don't believe they will be. So they disagree with your guys and only time will tell who is right however you will be here tonight pitching doom and gloom. Further I think you have made your point that you don't like Pegula, Whaley, TT, etc... you don't need to post it in every thread. We got it buddy we know how you feel. I'm "bothering" because your non-stop posting on these points has crossed from conversation to straight up whining and is just obnoxious.

Whaley was doing the board but not calling the shots? So it is his fault? Listen man I know the day has come and your epic meltdown is only a few hours away but please don't be disingenuous in your bashing. There is plenty to blame for 17 years of missing the playoffs but you can't put things on people if they aren't their fault. Putting other GMs failures on this one is flat out stupid. Putting Ralph's failing on the Pegulas is dumb. The Bills in totality have sucked but Whaley isn't responsible for drafting before 2013. Pegula isn't responsible for Ralph's reign either. You're everywhere on the board and post the same 4 things. Pegula sucks, Whaley sucks, TT sucks, and Mahomes is amazing. You could sing a different tune once in a while...

I did it in another thread for you. Since Whaley has come on board it's 2 and they are possible but not yet proven. Dak and Carr. That's it.

🖒